treat these MLB teams like Options

[Believe_EMT]

Mil +103
Tex +143

i bet to risk on faves (meaning consistent bet amount of 1 unit to win XX on fave)
bet to win on dogs

don't go over 1.5% of you BR on any of these

data set covers 4,295 games

i only bet at 5Dimes for the morning plays

[Believe_EMT]

as the title suggests, Option out of this unsavory Tex play

Hou -170

1.4 units to win .84 units

[Believe_EMT]

cin +104
nym 129
sd 112
min 130
laa +104
tb 143

also will never play a morning fave greater than 150

[Believe_EMT]

have to take kid to see Us, so you're on your own for the first 3 games, but it looks like TB is good to go.

cin and nym are near flat so let it ride unless they are 5 cents or more worse than the morning lines

[Believe_EMT]

Us was terrible

sea 118
1 to win .85

[Believe_EMT]

phi 138
pit 111
atl 104
min 142
bos 140
tb 136

you should finally be getting the idea of how powerful this approach is.
EMT
CLV
grind it out

With Options: .96 Units
W/O Options: -.99 Units

lines positive CLV: 88%

[Bdolan33]

Speak English

[Chi_archie]

get it

[jgold254]

I don’t understand this thread...

[Believe_EMT]

Speak English

sorry about that. difficult to distill years of work and knowledge into a single post. most people will reject this, which benefits me in the long run. so if we are going to speak in English, let's establish the foundation of this approach. feel free to question these assumptions so we can debate until you agree:

1. The Market is efficient (efficient market theory, EMT, borrowed from investing). Why? Because there is a severe penalty in the sports betting market for being consistently wrong (you go broke).

2. Fully mature lines are more efficient that opening lines. Why? Because as events move closer to their start time, more information is known and incorporated into the line.

3. Positive Closing Line Value (CLV) is a better indicator of potential long term success than a handicapper/bettors win loss record. Why? If numbers 1 and 2 hold true, successful market participants will be the ones that get the better number the majority of the time.

4. Individual bettors are at a severe disadvantage compared to professionals.

5. Sports bettors need to look at their bets (sides, totals, whatever) as investments, like stock in Apple. the Market provides us indicators as to our ability to pick a team (stock).

i really don't care if my selected team wins or losses. i care if i got the best number.

i'll provide the data set to this point covering over 4K games. the numbers are pretty staggering. and this approach will not be for everyone. i don't view this in terms of daily performance. not even weekly or monthly. this requires discipline and trust in the principles set out above.

[Believe_EMT]

get it

good to see you still holding things down here sir

[Believe_EMT]

3 early plays pooped the bed

should've gone .65 units on all 3 dogs. i failed to post, so it will not be counted.

[Believe_EMT]

stl -105

.85 units to win .81

[Believe_EMT]

Cin +112


With Options: +1.21 Units
W/O Options: -1.71 Units

[Believe_EMT]

prepare to have your mind blown:

Option Approach:
+CLV 1,082 - 1,059 +79.87 units
-CLV 462 - 522 -35.55 units
Flat 89 - 97 -12.74 units

Total 1,633 - 1,678 +31.58 units

No Option Approach:

Total 1,633 - 1,678 -29.64 units

Clearly supports the assumption above that CLV is a terrific indicator of long term success or failure.

[Believe_EMT]

going to visit bro lo in ICU. money flowing in on Bucs all of the sudden. IF the Reds hit +118 or higher at 7:03 EST, drop 1.05 units on Pit

Option out of that Reds play!!

[Kenny King]

This is interesting. Please keep teaching

[Believe_EMT]

chc +114
cle 148
tex +113
phi 144
ari +113


With Options: +.21 Units
W/O Options: -2.71 Units

[Believe_EMT]

folks should understand by now.
1. these early morning plays based on moves made by persons smarter than me
2. played at 5Dimes reduced MLB lines
3. optioned out of if line moves 5 cents or more against me

said all of that to say i will be at hospital again this evening. may not be able to post the options prior to game time.

we are going to operate as adults in this thread. think it is safe to say we will be optioning out of the Cle play. if at 7:08 p.m. EST that line has not come back to 139 or better, you will be putting .65 units on the Jays.

2 bad numbers make a good one, right?

Phi might regress back toward the opener and Ari flat for now. pay attention to the market boys and girls

[Chi_archie]

nice work Machine Choice

[Believe_EMT]

wsh 116
sd +110
det 128
cws 102
laa 137


With Options: +.06 Units
W/O Options: -2.25 Units

[Believe_EMT]

i suspect we will be good on wsh and laa.

the other 3 hovering around Flat and no need to panic

thresholds to option out:

stl 126 (risk 1 unit)
kc +112 (risk .70 unit)
sea 114 (risk .93 unit)

[Believe_EMT]

cin +122
chc +103
sd +110
lad 142
kc 103

With Options: +.67 Units
W/O Options: -1.73 Units

[Believe_EMT]

reds play to far gone. better off accepting the short loss than trying to find a middle ground on it.

others look good to flat

[Believe_EMT]

atl +117
kc +113
laa 101


With Options: -2.63 Units
W/O Options: -5.12 Units

[Believe_EMT]

kc +102
mil 119

[Believe_EMT]

det +127
nyy +107
ari 136

nice to see 32 cents in positive CLV across 2 games.

With Options: -3.47 Units
W/O Options: -6.14 Units

[Believe_EMT]

nym +118
pit +124
col 120
bal +141
det +111
kc +129

argument could be made all value gone from few of those final ones

With Options: -3.63 Units
W/O Options: -7.03 Units

[Believe_EMT]

if you are playing along at home, time for big boy pants. i will not be updating plays during the day and evening.

you know the approach by now.

check game 5 minutes before 1st pitch.

if line has moved 5 cents or more against your position, option out with a stake on the opposing team.

the goal here is to:
1. Get the best number and take advantage of +CLV (long term winning percentage is 50.5%)
2. Limit our losses when we encounter -CLV (long term winning percentage is 47%)

although writing that makes me consider lowering the 5 cents thing to anything flat or worse. 4% of the 4,250 games finished flat. rationale being closing line is the most efficient line, i did not get the best number, will be losing proposition long term.

so as of now, the approach is going to be to option out of any team finishing flat or worse. goal is to minimize loss.

anyone taking odds on the flat finishers going 30-5 rest of the season?

[Believe_EMT]

nym +101
mil +134
tor+114
hou 138

With Options: -5.93 Units
W/O Options: -11.78 Units

[Believe_EMT]

wsh 117
sf 127
tex +102

With Options: -4.20 Units
W/O Options: -9.65 Units

[Believe_EMT]

the pic failed, that would have been so much faster

cin +108
ari 133
lad 136
tb 136
laa +121

With Options: -3.20 Units
W/O Options: -7.95 Units

[Believe_EMT]

mil 135
cin +152
cle 114


With Options: -1.75 Units
W/O Options: -6.75 Units

[Believe_EMT]

mia +128
chw 108
det +102


With Options: -.36 Units
W/O Options: -6.16 Units

[Believe_EMT]

nym +103
sf +125
sea +127
oak +103
det +106

With Options: -1.43 Units
W/O Options: -7.31 Units