mil +125
pit +120
ari +143
tor 121
det 104
With Options: 17.64 Units
W/O Options: -3.00 Units
pit +120
ari +143
tor 121
det 104
With Options: 17.64 Units
W/O Options: -3.00 Units
-
Comment -
cin +109
nym 141
col 128
oak 128
With Options: 15.85 Units
W/O Options: -5.77 UnitsComment -
mil 125
oak +138
min 102
With Options: 18.60 Units
W/O Options: -2.28 UnitsComment -
ari 124
laa +134Comment -
st l +130
ari 139
atl 102
oak +130
sd 150
With Options: 20.06 Units
W/O Options:.59 UnitsComment -
chc 127
phi 112Comment -
atl 142
chc 105
wsh 122
sd 142
phi 108
tor +136
cle 134Comment -
phi 104
det 119
With Options: 21.18 Units
W/O Options: 1.17 UnitsComment -
laa +134
det +105
chw +118
With Options: 19.18 Units
W/O Options: .83 UnitsComment -
cin +102
col 112
bos 110
With Options: 20.72 Units
W/O Options: 1.73 UnitsComment -
atl 122
col 124
tex 134
bos 111
tb 117Comment -
ari 138
nym +126
tor 123
min +103
pit +118
kc +118
With Options: 20.09 Units
W/O Options: 3.14 UnitsComment -
atl 109
ari 130Comment -
EMT,
Just chiming in. I was down about 4-5 units doing the no vig method of capping but changed that to following a certain capper and playing his plays and opting out when needed and now made back those units. I have had the best of luck over the years when following a capper who posts early (usually when openers come out) and this system that you have shared is perfect for that. Following someone who can usually beat the closing line and OPTING OUT when they don't ,this method, should win in the long run. Thanks again to EMT.Comment -
chc 142
st l 105
With Options: 16.07 Units
W/O Options: 9.38 UnitsComment -
that is the key Dogman. finding a capper that releases plays as early as possible and beats the closing line more often than not. that sounds like even less work than this one.
wishing you long term success and if the opting out piece helps get you there, i will be pleased. good luck sir.Comment -
EMT,
I know of 3 cappers personally who bet openers, one in the bases and one in CFB and one in CFB and NFL that are long term winners. This doesn't mean you can't win if you don't bet openers but the ones that I know and win consistently are the ones that hit the openers and beat the closers much more often than not.
Two of them hit the BOL openers and since I don't have an account there I usually will grab the best number that's out there when my books open and then hope I beat the closer. I have done this for years but since your thread I love the opting out when their on the other side.
Good Luck to you the rest of the way.Comment -
sd 107
ari +104
pit +143
cle 127
min +123
With Options: 15.77 Units
W/O Options: 9.69 UnitsComment -
st l 127
kc +116
With Options: 18.67 Units
W/O Options: 6.59 UnitsComment -
pit +147
bal 112
nyy 139Comment -
col 107
wsh 148
mil +100
laa +116
bal +105
nym 146
With Options: 20.72 Units
W/O Options: 3.29 UnitsComment -
Oak +105Comment -
pit 103
ari +136
tex 140
nyy +135
sd +100
With Options: 22.31 Units
W/O Options: .26 UnitsComment -
chc 139
mia +114
mil 118
atl +102
tex +115
oak 136
With Options: 24.62 Units
W/O Options: .51 UnitsComment -
col +147
sf +136
sd 119
With Options: 24.41 Units
W/O Options: .56 UnitsComment -
st l +120
With Options: 24.28 Units
W/O Options: .84 UnitsComment -
phi 140
chc +100
mil 144
det +133
laa 141
With Options: 24.00 Units
W/O Options: 2.14 UnitsComment -
EMT...keep pluggin away!Comment -
Thanks Oil! gotta love the grind
cin 141
With Options: 24.68 Units
W/O Options: .70 UnitsComment -
pit 103
sd 127Comment -
nym +126
cin +105
ari +117
laa +122
With Options: 26.43 Units
W/O Options: 3.19 UnitsComment -
server was down couple days back and i wasn't able to post the plays
this morning i was just lazy about it
pretty certain i've proven the point though that i am indeed the smartest man alive
updated spreadsheet, would've been up a ridiculous amount had i continue playing on. amazingly profitable season. done tracking for now. i mean i'll keep tracking myself, just not posting here and updating daily.
maybe i'll just pop in with a weekly update, maybe not
most certainly will revive this thread or start a new one next year
looking for some refinements Oil, Combato and anyone else that sees room for improvement. be interesting if had our own threads with different approaches, live data tracking and whatnot.
might need to consider going max bet on reduced line and matching bet on non-reduced line and just use the blended price.
although might finish down 20 units next year....who knows
GL all!!Comment -
EMT, thank you again for starting this thread. Opting out is still working for me and something I never considered since I started betting 45 years ago.
The only improvement one could make is who to bet and why. I have been using a capper and opting out if neccessary and keeping the play if the play moved in my direction. Not sure if that's the best way but working for me so far.Comment -
wsh 123
tex 139
chw +108
unofficial record (as in the plays were never posted)
With Options: 26.92 Units
W/O Options: 7.78 Units
Official ending record:
With Options: 26.43 Units
W/O Options: 3.19 UnitsComment -
dogman,
i think anytime you find a way to maximize your CLV it is going to lead to long term success. and i trust the opinions of hundreds of thousands of bettors that build that CLV far more than my own insight.
another observation made is seems like money dropped way off once football kicked back in. be interesting to watch if sharps or squares are making up the majority of the movement. my guess is the former.
thrilled that i helped in any small way to improve your results!Comment
