[peterpan19]

YTD (both): 9-18 -11.21
YTD (pitching): 4-2 +0.735

todays picks to follow

[peterpan19]

today:
PIT
BOS
ATL .5
DET
MIL
SEA
FLA
ARZ
KC

GL

[Formulawiz]

It looks like sportrends added a new PR system and pitchers predicted runs. I will keep an eye on them since they are new

[peterpan19]

system 1:
plays today:
PHI
DET .5
CIN .5
CWS .5
CHC .5
SEA
FLA
LAA .5
ARZ
TB

YTD (both): 11-22 -13.56
YTD (pitching): 5-2 +1.235

so far the pitching only looks really good...today we will probably have 5 play in that category....so we will see how it does today... as for the other system, may 15th is coming soon....so maybe the system gets better

GL

[Formulawiz]

system 1:
plays today:
PHI
DET .5
CIN .5
CWS .5
CHC .5
SEA
FLA
LAA .5
ARZ
TB

YTD (both): 11-22 -13.56
YTD (pitching): 5-2 +1.235

so far the pitching only looks really good...today we will probably have 5 play in that category....so we will see how it does today... as for the other system, may 15th is coming soon....so maybe the system gets better

GL

I spoke to sportrends yesterday and they indicated the new system should work better then the old one due to the fact the stats they use is only dependant on the pitcher exclusively and not what his team does. The system performed well yesterday and I will be keeping an eye on it. I was hoping someone else could keep an eye on the new system. Remember the higher the values the better with system 2. Where the old system the lower the better. All the overlays and money lines still apply. I was also told to keep an eye on the pitcher predicted runs, especvially when it comes to road dogs. Its funny 5 games yesterday were pretty close with the predicted runs.

[peterpan19]

plays today:
NYM
ARZ (probably only play)
SF

YTD (both):12-24 -14.56
YTD (pitching): 7-4 +1.16

GL

[Formulawiz]

plays today:
NYM
ARZ (probably only play)
SF

YTD (both):12-24 -14.56
YTD (pitching): 7-4 +1.16

GL

I followed the predicted runs provided by sportrends and found it to be uncanny. 6 out of 15 games not only predicted the winners but the actual runs were very close to the actual score or very close to the differential. I think this could be a very good tool for us.
I am leaning toward PR system 2. It seems to be working better. We will have to monitor

Pete, I am not sure your record is correct, please check again. I think you accidently are playing fav over -130
Thanks

[peterpan19]

formulawiz

well I might have to look deeper into that predicted run tool they offer...if its really that good...

anyway it would be nice if someone could monitor that PR system 2 and post picks here...

...as for my record I just checked all the games I played so far...and I didnt play a fav over -130...

e.g. yesterday SEA, FLA and TB were plays...1-2 day
Saturday...Pit, DET, SEA, FLA, ARZ and KC (last three were all -125)...2-4 day...

[peterpan19]

PR2 plays for today:
NYM (line too high)
ARZ
SF
so the same plays today too...or well probably only one play with ARZ

predicted runs (only play road dogs here ?):
CWS 4.44 ... Pavano is expected to give up 4.44 more runs than Floyd
CIN 2.2

for the NYM game Santana is expected to allow more than 2 runs less than Lowe (what a surprise here)...but its a big home fav...so no play
and for the SF game its 1.87 in favor of WAS...but since its not 2 or more its a no play

is that correct formulawiz ?

thx

[Formulawiz]

PR2 plays for today:
NYM (line too high)
ARZ
SF
so the same plays today too...or well probably only one play with ARZ

predicted runs (only play road dogs here ?):
CWS 4.44 ... Pavano is expected to give up 4.44 more runs than Floyd
CIN 2.2

for the NYM game Santana is expected to allow more than 2 runs less than Lowe (what a surprise here)...but its a big home fav...so no play
and for the SF game its 1.87 in favor of WAS...but since its not 2 or more its a no play

is that correct formulawiz ?

thx

Your correct as far as the games today, but I personally dont think it matters if its a dog or fav when using predicted runs. Ill keep an eye on it. By the way I think its 1 run and not 2
All these systems are new according to sportrends and they have to be followed. I am looking at system 2 and it had another winning day yeterday. I would really like to know exactly what parameters they are using for these pR systems.

[peterpan19]

formulawiz
I think you should use a 2 run overlay...NYM is 2.67...but since its -200 or bigger right now its not a play...

but your right...the interesting thing is what they use as parameters...I mean we know nothing...but it is worth tracking since it is free...

anyway I will keep a seperate record for system 1 and 2 and predicted runs from now...and for all three we only play favs -130 or less...

GL

[peterpan19]

PR 1
YTD (both): 12-25 -15.81
YTD (pitching): 7-4 +1.16
todays plays:
TB
LAD
PIT .5
TOR
ATL .5
DET .5
ARZ
LAA
SF .5

PR 2
YTD (both): 0-1 -1.25

plays:
TB .5
LAD
TOR
ATL
SD
DET
ARZ

predicted runs:
1-1 +0.1

plays:
LAD
PIT
ATL
DET
COL
AR
SF

GL...dont forget to play only games -130 or less...so SF, ARZ, COL and TOR probably no plays...some other games are on the edge right now...

[Formulawiz]

PR 1
YTD (both): 12-25 -15.81
YTD (pitching): 7-4 +1.16
todays plays:
TB
LAD
PIT .5
TOR
ATL .5
DET .5
ARZ
LAA
SF .5

PR 2
YTD (both): 0-1 -1.25

plays:
TB .5
LAD
TOR
ATL
SD
DET
ARZ

predicted runs:
1-1 +0.1

plays:
LAD
PIT
ATL
DET
COL
AR
SF

GL...dont forget to play only games -130 or less...so SF, ARZ, COL and TOR probably no plays...some other games are on the edge right now...

Make sure before you put the plays up sportrends has updated everything. It looks like they changed their format on predicted runs, by eliminating the values after the decimal place. Makes more sense now.

[peterpan19]

great...

ok so here are the plays for predicted runs now (updated):as I understand it you have to get at least a 2 run difference for a play....it also says you should only play it with road dogs...
all possible plays: TB, LAD, PIT, TOR, ATL, DET, COL, ARZ, SF ...for now I will track all of them unless its -130 or above...if it really works good with road dogs we will switch to that...what do you say formulawiz ?

[Formulawiz]

great...

ok so here are the plays for predicted runs now (updated):as I understand it you have to get at least a 2 run difference for a play....it also says you should only play it with road dogs...
all possible plays: TB, LAD, PIT, TOR, ATL, DET, COL, ARZ, SF ...for now I will track all of them unless its -130 or above...if it really works good with road dogs we will switch to that...what do you say formulawiz ?

I think sportrends specified 1 run so I am not sure. Lets go with the 2 runs anyway. I also think it should be used as a tool when it agrees with the system plays. I also dont think we should limit plays to rd dogs either. Whatever you want to do is fine with me.

[peterpan19]

formulawiz...I think 2 runs is better...we would have too many plays if we only use 1 run...for now I will keep track of all predicted run play unless -130 or less

early plays:
PR1
CWS
SF .5

PR2
SF

run
CWS

GL

[Formulawiz]

formulawiz...I think 2 runs is better...we would have too many plays if we only use 1 run...for now I will keep track of all predicted run play unless -130 or less

early plays:
PR1
CWS
SF .5

PR2
SF

run
CWS

GL

Pete I am going to call sportrends and ask them if they can review their PR system. The PR system seems to be on the right path but their selections are on the wrong side. If we went opposite to what is picked we would be killing them. It could be possible in system 1 we should be going with the higher number and system 2 with the lower number, any thoughts?

[peterpan19]

formulawiz

yeah yesterday was another bad day...good thing I only tracked it so far...bc you said dont play it b4 May 15th... but now I am a bit worried...maybe we should really go against them...we would be rich by now hitting like 66% half favs and half dogs...anyway...I think PR 1 the lower the better and PR 2 the higher the better are correct, just looks at Santana and co and you know its correct...maybe the system just picks the loosers...not winners...I mean if you know that its fine too...

anyway rest of todays picks to follow shortly...

[peterpan19]

rest of today:
PR 1:
LAD
MIL
SEA
CHC
COL
KC

PR 2:
LAD
FLA .5
SEA
HOU .5

run:
NYY
MIL
SEA
KC

GL

[Formulawiz]

formulawiz

yeah yesterday was another bad day...good thing I only tracked it so far...bc you said dont play it b4 May 15th... but now I am a bit worried...maybe we should really go against them...we would be rich by now hitting like 66% half favs and half dogs...anyway...I think PR 1 the lower the better and PR 2 the higher the better are correct, just looks at Santana and co and you know its correct...maybe the system just picks the loosers...not winners...I mean if you know that its fine too...

anyway rest of todays picks to follow shortly...

I just spoke with sportrends and they have been working on 3 diffrent PR systems. There may have been some confusion when the person wrote it up and placed it on the website. They will get back to me.

[Formulawiz]

sportrends emailed me back this morning and indicated the webmaster screwed up the explanation of the power ratings. He got half of it correct. The most important which was pitching power is where he screwed up. Anyway they were happy we picked it up and it seems they corrected their mistake and its now behind us.

By the way I played opposite the system yesterday which would have been the case anyway, you would have gone 5-3. One of the losses which was SD I did not play. They seem to be on an unbelievebale losing streak. I think some common sense is also required on our part. Therefore I actually went 5-2.
I think we should start fresh starting yesterday or on May 15th
What do you think Pete. If the webmaster for sportrends had put the correct explanation up we would be hitting at a clip of over 67% and there were some pretty big dogs as well.
It also seems sportrends went back with the one PR system. I told them it was very confusing looking at two PR systems. I guess they listened.

[peterpan19]

formulawiz

now that is something...I also think lets start with a new record on Friday (May 15th) as this is the date we should start playing it anyway...so I will set back the records and start to post the plays again starting Friday... but I think they still got it wrong...why would Santana have a 13.5 PR and Perez a PR of 207.2 ?? ...if they both would play against each other you should take Perez ?? cant be right...I think the lower the better for both pitching and team is correct...it just has to be that way... but than it would be just the same as b4

todays early plays would be: (but the record starts on Friday...so today is only for fun...):
LAD (or according to them PHI .5 play ?)
DET (or MIN .5 play ?)
HOU (or COL .5 play)

I dont know but I feel like something is still not right...

[Formulawiz]

formulawiz

now that is something...I also think lets start with a new record on Friday (May 15th) as this is the date we should start playing it anyway...so I will set back the records and start to post the plays again starting Friday... but I think they still got it wrong...why would Santana have a 13.5 PR and Perez a PR of 207.2 ?? ...if they both would play against each other you should take Perez ?? cant be right...I think the lower the better for both pitching and team is correct...it just has to be that way... but than it would be just the same as b4

todays early plays would be: (but the record starts on Friday...so today is only for fun...):
LAD (or according to them PHI .5 play ?)
DET (or MIN .5 play ?)
HOU (or COL .5 play)

I dont know but I feel like something is still not right...

We really dont know what formulas they use to arrive at the PR's. I am sure they know what they are doing.

[peterpan19]

early plays were PHI, MIN and COL for .5 each...but PHI was a no play at -145, MIN was at even money, and COl was a play at +105

rest of plays for today (using there updated system now...going with higher pitching PR better and lower team PR is better...)CLE .5
SF .5

run plays (using 2 run overlay, 1 run overlay would produce too many plays in my oppinion) and you should only play road dogs...but we will see about that...
FLO
LAD
SEA
TOR
TB
KC
SF

(hou no play....not 5 starts for each pitcher)

GL

[Formulawiz]

early plays were PHI, MIN and COL for .5 each...but PHI was a no play at -145, MIN was at even money, and COl was a play at +105

rest of plays for today (using there updated system now...going with higher pitching PR better and lower team PR is better...)CLE .5
SF .5

run plays (using 2 run overlay, 1 run overlay would produce too many plays in my oppinion) and you should only play road dogs...but we will see about that...
FLO
LAD
SEA
TOR
TB
KC
SF

GL

You left out TEX, if rounded up Harrison it is exactly 20 so I played it.

[Formulawiz]

early plays were PHI, MIN and COL for .5 each...but PHI was a no play at -145, MIN was at even money, and COl was a play at +105

rest of plays for today (using there updated system now...going with higher pitching PR better and lower team PR is better...)CLE .5
SF .5

run plays (using 2 run overlay, 1 run overlay would produce too many plays in my oppinion) and you should only play road dogs...but we will see about that...
FLO
LAD
SEA
TOR
TB
KC
SF

GL

Pete I think you forgot HOU for the predicted runs

[Formulawiz]

I went back and read the PR system description very carefully. This is what it says: "PR System - When calculating the pitchers true ability the higher the power rating the better his chances of winning his next outing."

It does not say the pitcher with the higher PR is a better pitcher, it says he has a better chance of winning which is quite different then saying he is better.

We really dont know how they arrive at this PR so there is no way for us to interpret it any differently.
One final thought, I am not even paying attention to the teams bullpen description. If the pitcher PR system picks a particular team I wager 1 unit and not 1/2.

[peterpan19]

ok yesterday was not so bad...3 wins and 2 losses...+1.45 for the PR system...so today we restart and the record will be 0-0 again...

predicted runs were: 1-5...so not so good...but if we only go with road dogs we would have had a win on the Dodgers...and a loss on FLO...+0.3 units anyway...bc SEA was not a road dog, and TOR, KC and SF were home teams...HOU was not a play since Hammel didnt have 5 starts...

thats it for now...todays plays to follow later...but I am away now...

no early play today...

GL

and yes your right formulawiz...we have no idea what they mean...we might just do what they say and only go with the pitching PR...I think we would have hit like 60% or so...so thats ok...I also think we should use the predicted runs only for road dogs and apply a 2 run overlay...otherwise we would get too many plays...thats what I think, what do you think ?

[peterpan19]

plays today:
PR:
PHI, STL, SD, NYM, OAK and BAL

run:
BOS, LAA, KC, DET, PIT, WAS, STL, CIN and SF...but only LAA only road dog today...so lets see how it goes...

GL

[peterpan19]

yesterday the PR went 3-2 (too bad STL was a rainout...I watched that game and STL looked good early on)

YTD (PR): 3-2 +1.65 units

run system went 0-1 (as only LAA was a road dog...and thats what I will play only)

YTD (run): 0-1 -1.00 units

so overall a slight plus on the day...lets see how we do today...I think it was one of the best days so far...todays early picks to follow later...but it is really early anyway...

GL

[peterpan19]

ok not so many plays today (if I am correct)...only WAS G1, SF, CLE and ATL for PR

and PHI G1, STL, NYM, TB, OAK and PIT for run....only NYM, PHI and OAK are on the road...and only OAK is a road dog...

GL

[Formulawiz]

Not too good a day yesterday even though we could not hit any dogs. I guess since this a new system we have to keep monitoring.

Anyway since starting to use sportrends MLB software on may 15th I am 5 - 1

[peterpan19]

record (PR): 3-6 -2.6
record (run): 0-2 -2

so not a great start for the new system...

formulawiz
is that sporttrends sofware available for free...maybe you can post the picks you get ?

today plays are:
ARI
COL
CIN
NYM
CSW
TX
we should have a play on all of them....with some huge dogs included again...so lets hope we do better today...

run: ATL, WAS, PIT, SF, DET, TOR, LAA...LAA only road team but no dog...so no play here

GL

[Formulawiz]

record (PR): 3-6 -2.6
record (run): 0-2 -2

so not a great start for the new system...

formulawiz
is that sporttrends sofware available for free...maybe you can post the picks you get ?

today plays are:
ARI
COL
CIN
NYM
CSW
TX
we should have a play on all of them....with some huge dogs included again...so lets hope we do better today...

run: ATL, WAS, PIT, SF, DET, TOR, LAA...LAA only road team but no dog...so no play here

GL

I cant put the software plays up. That would not be ethical.

[peterpan19]

formulawiz
not even 5 min after the game started...just to see how it does ?...how much did you pay for the software ?