Originally posted by Mackballs
Braves play the cards. They both can't be plays.
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Braves play the cards. They both can't be plays.Comment -
Yes, corrected in my next postOriginally posted by mohye1980Comment -
Baltimore almost certainly a play. Philly looks good too. Atlanta gonna be tight.Comment -
Philly and Atlanta looking good nowComment -
Anyone know how long TT banned for or is it for good ?Comment -
Why was he banned?Originally posted by AceofSP2107Comment -
Referenced a another site one too many times I'm guessing.Comment -
Terrible day. TT did warn about may. No success following the system thus farComment -
April 2017 SU: 30-18 (0.92, 62.5%) ( don't know what 0.92 means. Avg margin?
April 2017 RL: 21-27 (-0.58, 43.8%)
May 2017 SU: 8-3 (2.55, 72.7%)
May 2017 RL: 6-5 (1.05, 54.5%)
ps couldn't figure out how to use table functionComment -
.92 is probably a measure of units won.Comment -
Today:
Currently qualifying plays:
Red Sox
Cubs
Angels
Red Sox and Cubs would be RIOF4. Angels would not be.
Close and could become plays:
Mets
Rockies
If these qualify, neither would be RIOF4.Comment -
don't know what 0.92 means. Avg margin?
You are correct. In that case 0.92 is the avg margin of victory.Comment -
I backtested both RIOF and RIOF4 from 2013 forward and RIOF is down slightly on the ML for the month of May. RIOF4 is up for May although up less than all other months (13 units on ML, 5.8 units on RL).Comment -
RIOF
237 149-88 (1.10, 62.9%) +$2,518 -$3,455 106-131 (-0.40, 44.7%) +$1,113 -$2,284 April 272 162-110 (1.14, 59.6%) -$38 -$1,256 120-152 (-0.36, 44.1%) +$978 -$2,434 May 259 168-91 (1.09, 64.9%) +$2,726 -$3,831 117-141 (-0.41, 45.3%) +$1,541 -$3,142 June 276 190-86 (1.51, 68.8%) +$5,218 -$6,351 134-142 (0.02, 48.6%) +$3,347 -$4,919 July 277 185-92 (1.60, 66.8%) +$3,851 -$5,087 139-137 (0.12, 50.4%) +$3,605 -$5,254 August 243 164-79 (1.35, 67.5%) +$3,951 -$5,003 125-118 (-0.15, 51.4%) +$3,288 -$4,396 September 39 31-8 (2.23, 79.5%) +$1,847 -$1,947 26-13 (0.73, 66.7%) +$2,198 -$2,502 October Comment -
RIOF4
158 105-53 (1.43, 66.5%) +$3,028 -$3,602 74-84 (-0.07, 46.8%) +$1,699 -$2,548 April 169 106-63 (1.21, 62.7%) +$1,311 -$2,056 74-95 (-0.29, 43.8%) +$583 -$1,494 May 166 113-53 (1.30, 68.1%) +$3,103 -$3,731 81-84 (-0.22, 49.1%) +$2,171 -$3,115 June 189 130-59 (1.47, 68.8%) +$3,606 -$4,357 87-102 (-0.01, 46.0%) +$1,015 -$2,025 July 181 117-64 (1.40, 64.6%) +$1,562 -$2,362 85-95 (-0.08, 47.2%) +$1,049 -$2,183 August 180 120-60 (1.37, 66.7%) +$2,397 -$3,211 92-88 (-0.13, 51.1%) +$2,058 -$2,894 September 29 24-5 (2.28, 82.8%) +$1,562 -$1,632 20-9 (0.78, 69.0%) +$1,791 -$2,021 October Comment -
System is solid but challenging to follow at times. But I've found others systems that rely on a specific line to be met are challenging as well because these databases are not updated in real time.
Does anyone know with certainty where the lines are coming from?Comment -
couldnt agree more. Like in horse racing betting at a certain odds and the money comes pouring in after betting is closed.Originally posted by kilopro
no one seems to know where the line is coming from. I'll ask!Comment -
One of us is doing something wrong as in addition to Angels and Red Sox, I have mariners as a play and RIOF4 and Cubs only a maybe if they pass >-130Originally posted by Mackballs
ps Angels now dog at my book( albeit still -1.5 RL) so I'm passing on the assumption the system line will catch upComment -
I think I'm just reading the wrong dates.Originally posted by barryt
But wasn't the system updated to allow a 10 cent difference? So Rockies would've needed to be -126 based on yesterday's closing line but -116 would qualify it as a play today because of the 10 cent difference...idk if this is right but I ended up taking Colorado as they were -118 at first pitch.Comment -
The 10 cent diff was brought out to facilitate plays when the 'line' on the SDQL was close and live lines indicated it was aplay and we were missing those plays. TT never got around to rechecking the system to properly query the effect. So I'm neglecting anything that doesn't meet the criteria on the SDQL and not searching for additional maybe plays. Theoretically Angels were/ are still a play but I used my judgement to eliminate them based on sbrodds.
looks like Rockies will cover, but -118 isn't close to the 126 needed to meet the system.
the CUBs on the other hand are right on the #, so a one point change after first pitch could make it a play and TT decided that was playable.
But I've put my foot down and if the SQDL doesnt spit it out ,I'm not playing ON, but if I see it could become NOT a play , like the Angels, I'm not playing it.
hope this is clear., but it's just me. you can play what you want.Comment -
One RIOF today:Yankees
one Maybe RIOF:Nationals @-107 need -116( qualifies on 10 point exception rule)
no RIOF4
gl
barryt
On my way back home to Ottawa from Daytona beach tomorrow. And no internet up in Ottawa. Will need Starbucks/ McDonald's .. lolComment -
Not seeing anything today...Comment -
RIOF
Rays over Royals. 7pm Eastern game so keep checking it until gametime.
RIOF
Nothing so far.Comment -
RIOF - Rays and Cubs so farComment -
Rangers, Rays, nationals currently qualify.
RIOF4 - rangers and rays
RIOF - nationalsComment -
Possible plays:
Philly - needs to become favorite - would be RIOF4.
SF - needs to become favorite - would be RIOF4
Houston - needs to get to -191 (-181 if using 10 cent adjustment) - would be regular RIOF
Cubs - needs to be -143 ( -133 if using 10 cent adjustment) - would be RIOF4
Cardinals - need to be -116 (-106 if using 10 cent adjustment) - would be RIOF4
Tigers - would need to become favorite - would be RIOF4
Feel free to correct any errors I made here. Right now the nats, rays and rangers all look like they will be plays, with rays and rangers being RIOF4. All others I think are worth monitoring, especially if you are using the 10 cent adjustment in making plays.Comment -
Just for the record, if you review the CUBS games yesterday, the 8-1 win was played before the 10-4 loss while the Cubs query page shows the reverse order that would infer 2 RIOF games. However the RIOF query on May 9 shows just the 8-1 game as it should.
However when looking at today's games the CUBS should not be a play as the line order of the previous two games should be -142, -135 not -135 -142 . Let's hope the Cubs go to -131 and we don't have to deal with it. At least the Rockies used 4 pitchers in each game so we don't have to worry about the RIOF4 or not.
Such a simple system is frought with difficulty!Comment -
Originally posted by barryt
You sure about that?
The 10-4 Rox win was played at 12:10 MST and was the makeup from the night before's rain out (5/8)...
The 8-1 Cubs win was the game that was originally scheduled for yesterday May 9 and the pitchers that were scheduled...
("The teams will play a day-night doubleheader Tuesday. Cubs ace Jake Arrieta (4-1, 4.63) and Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela (4-1, 2.84), the scheduled starters Monday, will oppose each other at 12:10 p.m. MT in the first game.
Chicago's John Lackey (2-3, 5.14) and left-hander Kyle Freeland (3-1 2.65) will start in the regularly scheduled second game at 6:40 p.m. MT.")Comment -
Houston now at -195 and would qualify. Definitely monitor up until first pitch at 2:10 est.
This is a regular RIOF play if the line holds.
Note: if you are using the 10 cent adjustment, this would qualify is an RIOF play at -181 or better, -191 or better if not using adjustment.Comment -
The cards are not a possible play, my mistake. However, the Marlins are in play if they become -116 (-106 with 10 cent adjustment). They would need to become the favorite at closing line and they would qualify for an RIOF4 play as well. They are -104 now but definitely monitor it. -116 for a play, -106 or just the favorite if using 10 cent adjustment. Sorry for the confusion but I believe this is correct because at -106 the cardinals would then be -104 and be the underdog. -116 for Marlins and we're good to go on all fronts.Originally posted by Mackballs
Anyone want to confirm this?Comment -
No I m not sure!Originally posted by 2buckluck
now I'm pretty sure I was wrong, but can't give a decent explanation of why. Just confused. Then there should have been 2 RIOF plays on Cubs yesterday.
i was travelling yesterday and looked at the scores this am and assumed the 10-4 game listed after the 8-1 game was the second.
sorry about this red herring.Comment -
Interesting that Marlins have moved to -115 at most places, yet remain -104 on the site. Got a a feeling this is gonna close at about -115 and we won't know it til way later. Might play it on an assumption the line will catch up to what most books now have it at.Comment -
May 11.. no plays today with my search!Comment -
I concur.Originally posted by barrytComment -
Currently qualifying RIOF4:
Washington -190 (needs -179, -169 with 10 cent adjustment)
Boston -165 (needs -146, -136 with 10 cent adjustment
Currently qualifying RIOF:
St Louis -126 (needs -107, or just to be the favorite)
Note: the giants may be an RIOF play. Their odds have improved 3 straight games including today and are -155 today. However, the reds have gone from -104, -103 to 145 today. Technically they haven't regressed 3 straight games but that middle game at -103 they were the underdog. I don't know if that matters. Does anyone know if the 10 cent adjustment would apply here to that -103 line from yesterday? I feel like the giants should be a play because they've had increased odds 3 straight games and the reds essentially have had decreasing odds...Comment
