MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

**Kubala** · 04-30-17, 05:41 PM

Dano: The guy got struck by a screaming liner by Dee Gordon, the ball inexplicably hit both his knees. Luckly for us the Marlins got to the Pitt bullpen...

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-01-17, 02:56 AM

off night:

RIOF:
TB SU; loss
TB, RL; loss
ATL SU; loss
ATL, RL; loss

RIOF4:
TB SU; loss
TB, RL; loss
ATL SU; loss
ATL, RL; loss

This is exactly why I play less than 1% BR per pick. Good nights are great when you can add 4-6% BR, but a few nights like this in a row can really put a major dent in your BR.

Not looking like we'll see any plays today, maybe STL:

STL; -170 needed, currently at -145
HOU; -200 needed, currently at -120
PIT; their odds line up great, CIN's do not -> no play there

**barryt** · 05-01-17, 08:39 AM

My experience in trying to follow this system is not good. Too many times the Killer sports line changed very late to make played on teams a non play and vice versa to miss teams that became a play. I'm sure many of you had the same problem. Miami yesterday was an example , but in this case it was a fortunate mistake.
I also didn't bet any favs at -195 or less and / or RL less than +105. Sometimes depending on my book's lines, I bet one but not the other. I bet on 34 games.
My record for RIOF since April 9 until April 30 was
ML 15-17
RL 12-19
I started with a BR of $250 and bet $20 per game. $10 on ML and $10 on RL . I ended up with $143 a loss of $107.( I'm glad I was betting risk $10 rather than to win $10 or results would a been worse).
TT has said that historically May is a poor month, so I'm passing for MAY, but will follow on a weekly basis to see how things are going.

Of course, I wish to thank TT for doing this and answering all the questions many have posed and trust the system will make lots of money for him.( and guys stop asking the same questions over and over again)
The RIOF4 seemed to do better than the RIOF although I didnt play it separately nor keep any records.
Gl
Barryt

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-01-17, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by barryt

My experience in trying to follow this system is not good. Too many times the Killer sports line changed very late to make played on teams a non play and vice versa to miss teams that became a play. I'm sure many of you had the same problem. Miami yesterday was an example , but in this case it was a fortunate mistake.
I also didn't bet any favs at -195 or less and / or RL less than +105. Sometimes depending on my book's lines, I bet one but not the other. I bet on 34 games.
My record for RIOF since April 9 until April 30 was
ML 15-17
RL 12-19
I started with a BR of $250 and bet $20 per game. $10 on ML and $10 on RL . I ended up with $143 a loss of $107.( I'm glad I was betting risk $10 rather than to win $10 or results would a been worse).
TT has said that historically May is a poor month, so I'm passing for MAY, but will follow on a weekly basis to see how things are going.

Of course, I wish to thank TT for doing this and answering all the questions many have posed and trust the system will make lots of money for him.( and guys stop asking the same questions over and over again)
The RIOF4 seemed to do better than the RIOF although I didnt play it separately nor keep any records.
Gl
Barryt

Hi Barry,

I just ran the numbers dating back to 2013 with games which "almost qualified". By almot qualifying, I mean games where the game day odds "missed" by up to 10 points on the line. Yesterday's Marlins game being one of them (odds went from -115 to -125 to -120).

This is what I got:

RIOF now (line today<= line previous < line previous, previous against the opposite)

SU
1122-604, +198.44 units, 7.2% RoI
RL
819-905, +161.02 units, 9.1% RoI

RIOF revised (line today <+10 line previous < line previous, previous against the opponents line>opponents previous line > opponents previous, previous line))

SU
1146-615, +205.40 units, 7.3% RoI
RL
837-922, +166.67 units, 9.3% RoI

Very, very similar numbers!

2017

RIOF now

SU
33-21, +1.34 units, 1.6%RoI
RL
24-30, +2.29 units, 4.2%RoI
RIOF revised

SU
35-22, +1.82 units, 2.0%RoI
RL
26-31, +3.71 units, 6.4%RoI

I will proceed with the new system. Today's play is HOU, no RIOF4 play.

CLIFFS:
-Made a minor tweak to the system which will allow us to take games we were uncertain of before
-Performance is identical
-Will proceed with changes
-Today's RIOF play is HOU (as long as their line remains <-190)
-No RIOF4 play

Cliff's of CLiffs:
-Read entire thread if you have questions!

PS
jlani, I will email you the new queries and provide you with a detailed explanation tomorrow.

**barryt** · 05-01-17, 07:12 PM

Re RIOF Revised
you have to do the same for the opponents line i.e. Opponent line today >-10 previous line > etc..
other wise the opponents line is still driving the result.No?

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-02-17, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by barryt

Re RIOF Revised
you have to do the same for the opponents line i.e. Opponent line today >-10 previous line > etc..
other wise the opponents line is still driving the result.No?

Good eye. My bad, it was a long day yesterday. You are correct.

But again, I will use the new query for filtering out close games. I am going to play any close plays and will post all of them. We still might miss a few here or there but they would be "line today <+10 line previous < line previous, previous against the opponents line>opponents previous line > opponents previous, previous line" plays and not line<previous line<previous line plays.

I hope this makes sense.

With that said, yesterday's results:

RIOF:
HOU, SU won
HOU, RL won

RIOF4:
no plays

Today's possible plays:

RIOF:
KC (doubtful)
MIA
NYY
BOS
COL
MIN
LAD (doubtful)
HOU (doubtful)

RIOF4:
will update later

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-02-17, 08:39 AM

SD and MIN will most likely not qualify due to their opponents lines. HOU,LAD and KC are also both long shots due to their current lines.

BOS and NYY both looking strong RIOF plays while MIA still needs TB's line to move in order for them to qualify.

MIA would qualify to be our only RIOF4 play. Gonna be close there. Feel free to pass on MIA if it remains this close

**barryt** · 05-02-17, 10:52 AM

Hi TT. Don't mean to bug you, but shouldn't it be
<+10 line previous < line previous, previous against the>-10 opponents line>opponents previous line > opponents previous, previous line"

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-02-17, 11:06 AM

yes, my bad and thanks for pointing that out

**barryt** · 05-02-17, 11:13 AM

FYI. If a team qualified yesterday and is playing same opponent today there's no need to check the opposition line as they are tied to each other. If one goes down,the other goes up .
Eg Miami, Tbay. Both are off by 8 cents. If Mia gets to -136, then Tampa will get to 126.
(However, at present, since it's within 10 at 8, they would be a play with the +\- 10 proviso in place)

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-02-17, 01:56 PM

Inbox clear. Sorry about that

**Scrivero** · 05-02-17, 02:00 PM

No problem at all

PM sent!

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-02-17, 04:30 PM

RIOF plays:
MIA, SU - RL
BOS, SU -RL
NYY, SU - RL

RIOF 4 play:
MIA, SU - RL

**TechnicalTrader** · 05-03-17, 01:42 AM

That MIA line closed at -120 which made it unofficial (-125 was required), I was in bed so wasn't able to catch it. Those who are following the system properly should've passed on that play:

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=date%3E%3D20170428+ and+team%3DMarlins&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21+ +

RIOF plays:
BOS, SU -RL won both
NYY, SU - RL won both

RIOF 4 play:
none

Good start to May!

Pending plays for May 3rd:

RIOF:
TB
WAS
NYM
SEA (close)
CHC (requires a 15 cent move)
STL (requires a 50 cent move)

RIOF4:
will update later

Moving on, I suggest to lay off any play which is close like the MIA play. The new filter (added 10 cents to the current line) will keep the even line plays official.

That SEA play for example could go either way. If it's close, I'll lay off of it!

**Mackballs** · 05-03-17, 10:09 AM

Can anyone post a link to page that shows the current and changing lines for each game? Also, does this also show the lines from each team's previous two games so we know what line we are looking to get in order to make a play? I'm not sure where to go from killer sports to find this. I'm guessing I should probably make an account...

Thanks for the help.

**barryt** · 05-03-17, 01:01 PM

MAckballs
I think you have to go to each teams page individually. So I wait til TT post the list of probables and just double check those when I'm ready to bet.( not betting right now,so it's perfect since I stopped.LOL)
for all games today just type in date=20170503 and site=home and for past 2 days and today, date>20170430 and sit=home. The site = home avoids duplication of each game. Maybe and team=Fav would be better...I'm still learning this stuff inch by inch.
so for today listing the favourites
date=20170503 and line<100
and for 3 days
date>20170430 and line<100
seemed to work when I did it.
gl
barryt

**Frosty** · 05-03-17, 02:41 PM

Tech, I've been following your thread for a while as well as posts on other threads. You're the man. Your efforts and work do not go unnoticed and are GREATLY appreciated. Keep up the good work and I hope you don't get banned. BOL

**2daBank** · 05-03-17, 04:26 PM

Don't even bother following the movement in stl, I'd be shocked if they play it, been raining crazy hard all day with no signs of stopping

**Mackballs** · 05-03-17, 04:27 PM

Only Mets and Rays are RIOF4, correct? If Washington qualifies it will only be a RIOF play.

**Sir-Ater** · 05-03-17, 05:11 PM

WAS would be RIOF4....Arizona used 4 pitchers last nigh

**ognj3n** · 05-03-17, 05:23 PM

Yepp, TT got banned. Mr. admin wins the internetz lol

**teecee** · 05-03-17, 06:18 PM

Banned for ....?

**Mackballs** · 05-03-17, 07:48 PM

He wins. That is not allowed around these parts.

**Mackballs** · 05-04-17, 06:36 AM

Are we gonna keep this thread going?

**Sucka4parlays** · 05-04-17, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Are we gonna keep this thread going?

I really hope y'all do keep it going. I just found this thread yesterday and have been reading up on it and I am anxious to try it out. I think TT genuinely wanted to help everyone make $$, I think it's only right to continue this thread in his absence!

**RetardStrength** · 05-04-17, 07:31 AM

Def keep it going. Great insight/system here

**teecee** · 05-04-17, 08:03 AM

Banned for winning? That's it? Can't be the whole story, right?

**Mackballs** · 05-04-17, 08:03 AM

So for today, if I'm looking at this correctly, I see the following possible plays.

Very possible:

Washington (-146 or higher)
Pitt (-107 or higher)

Would need significant line movement:

St Louis (-201 or higher)
Tampa (-156 or higher)
KC (-156 or higher)
Houston (-181 or higher)
Cleveland (-161 or higher)
NYM (-143 or higher)

I don't think dogs qualify so even though Baltimore, Oakland and Philly all have shown improved odds the last three games (including the current lines for today's game as the third game line), they would not be playable unless they become the favorite...I think.

Am I looking at this correctly?

**barryt** · 05-04-17, 08:09 AM

My initial attempt at this...it was like pulling teeth ...but I think I got it. ...is Pirates over Reds
pirates 120 -106 -117
reds -130 -104 +107
and the Reds used 4 pitchers in last game.
so check SBR MLB odds near game time and bet accordingly
gl
barryt
PS yesterday TBAY lost and METS won 16-5

**barryt** · 05-04-17, 08:15 AM

Jlani93 can still post!??

**Mackballs** · 05-04-17, 08:23 AM

Washington ended up closing at -145 last night so it would've qualifies as RIOF play I think but I didn't take it. If it would've qualified, then wouldn't they again quality today if it the line closes at -146 or higher?

**barryt** · 05-04-17, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Washington ended up closing at -145 last night so it would've qualifies as RIOF play I think but I didn't take it. If it would've qualified, then wouldn't they again quality today if it the line closes at -146 or higher?

You are right, but there is a typo in the line for Diamondbacks 35 instead of 135, so it doesn't show up

**Mackballs** · 05-04-17, 09:13 AM

Ok so we're looking at Pitt most likely and Washington as a maybe. Everything else is a long shot but will monitor.

RIOF4 in play for Pitt or Washington? It's if the opposing team used three or four pitchers or more the previous game I think?

**Sir-Ater** · 05-04-17, 09:28 AM

RIOF4 is if 4 pitchers were used.

Remember, the system was modified to allow a 10cent variation from the previous nights line. For example, if WAS gets to around -135 around game time, still play.

**Mackballs** · 05-04-17, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by Sir-Ater

RIOF4 is if 4 pitchers were used.

Remember, the system was modified to allow a 10cent variation from the previous nights line. For example, if WAS gets to around -135 around game time, still play.

Ok, I had forgotten about that. I believe there was almost no difference in roi either when factoring the 10 cent allowance. So we should really be looking at the daily lines and subtracting 10 cents from them when looking for plays that qualify.