MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

**GoodBadUgly** · 05-19-17, 10:54 AM

Good morning jlani93, barryt, and/or anyone who follows this thread and has experience in SDQL. I've been learning as much as possible about SDQL, and I've tried to replicate TechnicalTrader's query, but I don't get the same numbers as his.

These are TechnicalTrader's numbers:
(Straight up, RL also was up, just slightly lower but also in the green)
2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units

This is the query I put in at KillerSports:
F and line > p:line > pp:line and o:line < po:line < ppo:line and season=2013

I must be missing something. Any help is much appreciated.

**barryt** · 05-19-17, 11:10 AM

Friday RIOF two plays Nationals -165, Dodgers-245( probably won't play this).
As suspected twins 2 nd game became a play. I dint bet as I was tied up
May is now 26-10

**barryt** · 05-19-17, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by GoodBadUgly

Good morning jlani93, barryt, and/or anyone who follows this thread and has experience in SDQL. I've been learning as much as possible about SDQL, and I've tried to replicate TechnicalTrader's query, but I don't get the same numbers as his.

These are TechnicalTrader's numbers:
(Straight up, RL also was up, just slightly lower but also in the green)
2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units

This is the query I put in at KillerSports:
F and line > p:line > pp:line and o:line < po:line < ppo:line and season=2013

I must be missing something. Any help is much appreciated.

I just do this year as Ididnt need to validate TTs #
im a rookie at this but two things
i use op instead of po... not sure it matters
and season = should be season>=.. this could be the reason as I'm not sure how one gets results for other season with just asking for 2013
I would also go season / line/ and F /and o:line in that order but that's maybe just me.
gl
barryt

**GoodBadUgly** · 05-19-17, 01:08 PM

Thank you for your response, barry.

jlani93, would you kindly respond to my question when you have a chance. I can't message you because I don't have the required minimum forty posts. Thanks so much.

**barryt** · 05-20-17, 11:21 AM

1-,1 yesterday

57-29 (1.67, 66.3%) for April
today's plays
Nationals-180, Tigers-157
maybe Royals if get to -113 or so
gl
barryt

**barryt** · 05-22-17, 05:04 AM

Not so much interest in this thread anymore
yesterday
1 play Tampa Lost
1 play today INdians over reds as long as they stay favourite. -110 this am, need -106
gl

**kilopro** · 05-22-17, 05:57 PM

I'm continuing to track and likely pick up again in June. Primarly like RIOF4 plays but they've done extremely well on ML. Looking for some regression there before getting back in. Thanks barryt for helping to keep this going.

**barryt** · 05-23-17, 11:17 AM

Lost again yesterday but still 64.4% ,RL 46.8% for 2017 and 66.7%, RL 52% for May.
3 plays today
Astros -200 ..too favourite for me now -230
Rockies -115 now -125
Indians -145 now -160
Gl
PS bet early lines always seem to go against RIOF( favourites?)

**barryt** · 05-23-17, 11:28 AM

Hi Kilopro
Now you mention it
RIOF4 ml 71% : RL 50% for 2017 and for May ml 66.7% :RL 48.1 %
So the straight RIOF has done slightly better this month than the 4 version and with more plays more money made. $1324 vs $659
Rockies and Indians are RIOF4 today

**kilopro** · 05-23-17, 12:33 PM

Yes barryt, RIOF has performed really well this month, bucking the overall trend since 2013. Thanks again and GL.

**barryt** · 05-24-17, 07:30 AM

3-0 yesterday 2-1 On RL. Iq went 2-0 and 1-0 as low odds on Astros and Indians RL
4 games today

May 24, 2017

box

Wed

home

Braves

Julio Teheran - R

Pirates

Trevor Williams - R

-140

9.0

May 24, 2017

box

Wed

home

Indians

Trevor Bauer - R

Reds

Lisalverto Bonilla - R

-175

9.0

May 24, 2017

box

Wed

home

Mets

Robert Gsellman - R

Padres

Jarred Cosart - R

-150

8.5

May 24, 2017

box

Wed

home

Red Sox

Chris Sale - L

Rangers

Martin Perez - L

-255

8.5

Odds on Boston toolow to play,( for me)

ps all are RIOF4

**barryt** · 05-25-17, 06:24 AM

Bad day at the office 1-3 on last and RL. 0-2 for me as didn't play big favs Indians and REDSOX
ytd

62-35 (1.54, 63.9%)	avg line: -164.7 / 151.8	on / against: +$1,033 / -$1,411	ROI: +6.5% / -14.5%
46-51 (0.04, 47.4%)	avg line: 126.1 / -142.

2plays today both RIOf4
indians -205
Mets -210
both too steep for me
gl barryt

**barryt** · 05-25-17, 04:31 PM

No plays today afterall
indians ppd
Mets changed starter and line dropped to -140

**barryt** · 05-26-17, 06:55 AM

2 plays Friday
Brewers -110 a play as long as Fav
Indians -200 ... would have to drop to -190 for me to play( and then it wouldn't be a play ...of course!)
gl
barryt
PS no RIOF4

**barryt** · 05-26-17, 08:22 AM

Going thru a rough stretch last week May 17 -25

SU:
8-8 (0.81, 50.0%)
avg line: -174.7 / 159.9
on / against: -$510 / +$408
ROI: -18.0% / +25.5%

RL:
7-9 (-0.69, 43.8%)
avg line: 111.6 / -131.6
on / against: -$115 / +$15
ROI: -6.7% / +0.7%

**Mackballs** · 05-26-17, 10:56 AM

Excellent news. I'll sign the petition. Get the man back here.

**barryt** · 05-26-17, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by barryt

2 plays Friday
Brewers -110 a play as long as Fav
Indians -200 ... would have to drop to -190 for me to play( and then it wouldn't be a play ...of course!)
gl
barryt
PS no RIOF4

Indians dropped off,but
Giants came on -110... so as long as they remain the Fav!
gl
( what does nominated mean..a thumbs up?)

**barryt** · 05-27-17, 05:38 AM

0-1 yesterday as breweries lost and Giants were ineligible as they were not favourite at game time
1 play today DET maybe@-140
i say maybe as because of the PPD games the past 2 days in CHIX, the starting pitchers are confused. Some say Farmer some say Fulmer,(that in itself is confusing) while Holland danish is also reversed at places.
Will confirm the play around 2 pm

**barryt** · 05-29-17, 06:28 AM

Well Detroit ended up no play but there were two others Saturday and 3 on Sunday but I was unable to post them. Of course all 5 won bothe ml and RL. I was able to bet 2 of them Sunday,

May 27, 2017

box

Sat

home

Astros

Dallas Keuchel - L

Orioles

Wade Miley - L

5-2

3

W

-1.0

U

11-7

0-1

3-0

-190

8.0

9

May 27, 2017

box

Sat

home

Nationals

Stephen Strasburg - R

Padres

Clayton Richard - L

3-0

3

W

-5.0

U

10-3

2-1

3-0

-265

8.0

9

May 28, 2017

box

Sun

home

Astros

Lance McCullers - R

Orioles

Alec Asher - R

8-4

4

W

3.5

O

11-7

2-1

5-3

-220

8.5

9

May 28, 2017

box

Sun

home

Giants

Johnny Cueto - R

Braves

RA Dickey - R

7-1

6

W

0.0

P

6-7

0-2

7-0

-200

8.0

9

May 28, 2017

box

Sun

home

Rockies

German Marquez - R

Cardinals

Lance Lynn - R

8-4

4

W

1.0

O

10-10

0-0

5-0

-127

11.0

9

**barryt** · 05-29-17, 06:46 AM

2 plays today

Marlins-130
Royals -107. Royals must be the favourite.

in this thread emphasis has been posting results by Month. Didn't make much sense to me, so I've started using a moving 30 day window to view the past results and use those win% for determining my bet size.
so for the past 30 days April 29 to May 28

37-21 (2.05, 63.8%)	avg line: -168.1 / 154.2	on / against: +$694 / -$921	ROI: +7.0% / -15.9%
30-28 (0.55, 51.7%)	avg line: 120.2 / -139.5	on / against: +$599 / -$1,028	ROI: +9.9% / -12.6%
28-28-2 (0.91, 50.0%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$327 / -$228	ROI: -5.0% / -3.6%

Guess we didn't need the OU stats too
gl
barryt

**barryt** · 05-30-17, 06:22 AM

Yesterday, I decided for myself at about 6 pm, that KC wouldn't be Fav so I didn't play it even though it was still showing as a play. So I just played Marlins ml and RL which won.
Turns out KC was an RIOF play despite all SBR books and Vegas showing pickem or Tigers a small Fav, but it lost 10-7.
1 RIOF4 today Dbacks -110 vs Pitt as long as Dbacks are Fav. Same problem as with KC yesterday, it may be touch and go as to whether they are Fav.
last 30 days

38-20 (2.10, 65.5%)

avg line: -169.5 / 155.6

on / against: +$902 / -$1,121

ROI: +9.1% / -19.3%

**barryt** · 05-31-17, 07:33 AM

Yesterday ARZ lost favouritism so it wasn't a play. I checked at 5:30 and it was + money at most books while RIOF still showed it a play, however this am it wasn't a play. TOO BAD as it won3-0
Today similar situation with Pitt opening line -114 says it's a play, but already a dog so it's not. May come back check lines at noon game time is 12.35
Mariners
TBay Rays
are RIOF4
( I haven't been ditinguishingbetween RIOF and 4 just playing as RIOF
last 30 days ml 64% RL52%
gl
barryt

**barryt** · 06-01-17, 06:48 AM

4-0 yesterday. As suspected Pitt was a no play
NO plays today

**BennyFang** · 06-02-17, 12:44 PM

Anything today?.....haven't had a chance to look yet.

**barryt** · 06-02-17, 02:05 PM

No plays again. I'll check back around 6:30 and if there are any I'll post them

**barryt** · 06-03-17, 09:09 AM

One potential play today Marlins . Opened at -115 and must be -114 to qualify.
officially no plays yesterday
gl barryt

**barryt** · 06-03-17, 08:31 PM

Went to check for Sunday plays and noticed Oakland had sneaked in as a play on Satyrday along with Marlins. I bet Miami but didn't see Oakland til it was much too late. Went 4-0 dam
Onto Sunday
2 showing right now Twins-117 and Mariners-122
im going to have to find the discipline to check back 15 min before game times to see if others are popping up!

**BennyFang** · 06-04-17, 02:00 PM

Looks like both are plays

**Baby o** · 06-04-17, 02:30 PM

So the play today would be what?

Twins and Mariners

**barryt** · 06-05-17, 07:48 AM

3-1 yesterday; these win% are getting obscene
Last 30 days

36-17 (2.21, 67.9%)	avg line: -165.2 / 151.8	on / against: +$1,088 / -$1,279	ROI: +12.4% / -24.1%
30-23 (0.76, 56.6%)	avg line: 121.1 / -140.3	on / against: +$1,284 / -$1,733	ROI: +23.1% / -23.0%
26-25-2 (0.65, 51.0%)	avg total: 8.7

For more action;all those not quite qualifying but within 10cents though are doing well too!

46-24 (1.74, 65.7%)

avg line: -159.1 / 146.4

on / against: +$1,185 / -$1,443

ROI: +10.6% / -20.6%

Doesnt paste too well ,but you get the idea

No plays indicated at 8 am. Check back at suppertime

**BennyFang** · 06-06-17, 07:49 AM

Looks like only the Braves are a possibility today.

**barryt** · 06-06-17, 08:26 AM

At opening line of -127 , Braves were a play, but they have been bet up to about pickem. They must drop back to -117 to be a play. Game time is 735p so check back around 7p. If it's a play I'll confirm.

**barryt** · 06-06-17, 06:07 PM

Braves not a play
C ardinals would be a play at -136, presently around -130 game in 5 min
ill pass

**BennyFang** · 06-07-17, 12:14 AM

Orioles, Brewers, D'backs bear watching on 6/7.

**barryt** · 06-07-17, 08:27 AM

3 plays today
Brewers
Diamondbacks
Orioles
Just for the record..no plays yesterday!
Last 30 days ml 66%, RL 56%