MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

**barryt** · 07-11-17, 03:47 PM

Sorry about last post it didn't tabulate and I don't have edit post..used to have

**barryt** · 07-11-17, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by burrissa

Is the SDQL info correct? I've just started learning this stuff today and I'm not even sure if my query is correct. But I show Dirkx as the starter for Texas instead of Darvish when I run my query. Does it even matter since we're looking at the lines?

I only look at the lines.
obviously if the starter is changed the line will change. Sometimes the SQDL is slow picking up changes so we have to be on our toes!

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 07-11-17, 04:21 PM

Covers (closing lines) has July 7 as -106, July 8th as -117 and July 9th as -132..which if I'm following correctly would be a play on the 9th (being it's the 3rd game of the series the Mets ML obviously went up). StL is progressive, NyM regressive...3g. I'm just trying to follow correctly.

That said, for my tracking, here's an example of how I've been doing it.

Say STL...July 7 as -116 (close), July 8th as -137 (close) and July 9th as -140 (current) On the 3rd day when I refresh Odds, it comes up -140..making it a play (provided other team regressive and that I'm following along correctly). If I don't have time later, I will post all that I'm tracking as plays. If the odds for StL were to go down after (say to -125), it's too late...I already have it as a play. That's just the way I do it.

I'll go back and see how the dogs are doing so far this year.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 07-11-17, 04:39 PM

Dogs are 13-23, 2.52 units. Hey, it's a positive number!!!

**BennyFang** · 07-14-17, 11:05 AM

7/14: Mets, Brewers, Pirates. BOL

**Winning oasis** · 07-15-17, 05:50 PM

Nice Friday Benny. Good capping.

**BennyFang** · 07-17-17, 05:01 PM

Been gone last couple of days. After 6-0 Friday, Saturday was a bad day, I think both ML & RL were 1-4. Yesterday 2-0 with Cubs hitting both.

7/17: Blue Jays if favored, HOU if >-200

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-17-17, 11:46 PM

Jays dropped off so only play was HOU (loss).

7/18: Blue Jays if favored, Orioles if >-115, Pirates if >-122, Astros if >-220, Rockies if >-168, Indians if >-122.

BOL

**thekoreanmang** · 07-18-17, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by BennyFang

Jays dropped off so only play was HOU (loss).

7/18: Blue Jays if favored, Orioles if >-115, Pirates if >-122, Astros if >-220, Rockies if >-168, Indians if >-122.

BOL

Thanks for posting! Interesting how TOR fell off yest but it ended up winning while HOU lost.

**BennyFang** · 07-19-17, 08:22 AM

ML 2-2, RL 1-3 yesterday

7/19: Rays if >-115, Indians if >-130, Mariners if favored, Tigers if favored, Pirates if >-155, Orioles if >-120

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-20-17, 06:51 AM

ML 3-2, RL 2-3 yesterday

7/20: Mariners if favored, Tigers if >-107.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-21-17, 12:42 AM

Ended up being no plays.

7/21: Nats if >-135, Dodgers if >-210, Rangers if >-115.

BOL

**teecee** · 07-21-17, 09:11 AM

Tigers were -108 @ KillerSports. That made it a play. That's 0-2 on both m/l and r/l, right?

**bryanoens** · 07-21-17, 10:38 AM

That nats az game is tilty. Couple good systems going against each other. If nats under -135, it's all in for az

**BennyFang** · 07-21-17, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by teecee

Tigers were -108 @ KillerSports. That made it a play. That's 0-2 on both m/l and r/l, right?

My book's closing line was -105 so it wasn't a play for me. That kind of stuff will happen over the long haul. Sometimes we're on the good side of it, sometimes not. I don't really keep a record other than a recap of the prior day.

**BennyFang** · 07-22-17, 12:22 AM

Ml 1-2, RL 0-3

7/22: Royals if >-178, Cubs if >-144, Astros if >-142

BOL

**juicername** · 07-22-17, 12:44 AM

I found out that this system plus the team coming off a loss has yielded great results this season, +20% ROI. It doesn't seem to have made a huge difference in previous seasons though.

**BennyFang** · 07-23-17, 01:31 AM

ML 2-0, RL 1-1

7/23: Marlins if favored, Cubs if >-155, Tigers if favored, Pirates if favored, D'backs if favored.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-24-17, 09:28 AM

Cubs ended up being the only play; ML 1-0, RL 1-0.

7/24: Tigers if favored, Rangers if >-125, Mariners if favored, Pirates if favored.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-25-17, 01:22 AM

2-2 ML, 2-2 RL

7/25: Cardinals if >-136, Tigers if >-138, Astros if >-154, Rangers if >-142.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-26-17, 01:16 AM

Astros and Rangers were in play; 2-0 ML, 2-0 RL

7/26: Rays if >-120, Red Sox if >-106, Giants if >-122, Nationals if >-125, Royals if favored, Rangers if >-145.

BOL

**teecee** · 07-26-17, 06:55 AM

Good work, Benny.

**BennyFang** · 07-26-17, 03:39 PM

Thanks T.....just playing the system. I think it's solid Memorial Day to Labor Day. Just noticed the Rangers have had increasing odds for the 5th consecutive game, don't think I've ever seen that.

**BennyFang** · 07-26-17, 11:07 PM

ML 3-1; RL 2-2.

7/27: Nationals if >-130, Blue Jays if >-160, Cubs if >-260, Padres if >-110

BOL

**teecee** · 07-27-17, 01:22 PM

Missed the Nationals play. -1465 live after the top of the 2nd seems like a steal at this point. 15 to 1! Sheesh!

**BennyFang** · 07-27-17, 11:35 PM

Nats & Jays were the only official plays but both ML & RL also hit on the Cubs and Padres.

ML 2-0; RL 2-0

I don't have unit results but 39-33 since ASB (22-14 ML, 17-19 RL).

7/28: no plays

**thekoreanmang** · 07-28-17, 08:31 AM

Nice job with keeping everything up to date, Benny! Much appreciated!

Originally posted by BennyFang

Nats & Jays were the only official plays but both ML & RL also hit on the Cubs and Padres.

ML 2-0; RL 2-0

I don't have unit results but 39-33 since ASB (22-14 ML, 17-19 RL).

7/28: no plays

**BennyFang** · 07-29-17, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Nice job with keeping everything up to date, Benny! Much appreciated!

Thanks!

ML 0-0; RL 0-0

7/29: Orioles if favored.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-30-17, 01:40 AM

ML 1-0; RL 1-0

7/30: Tigers if favored, that's all. A chance the Rockies might be a play in Game 2 but no lines yet.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 07-30-17, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by BennyFang

ML 1-0; RL 1-0

7/30: Tigers if favored, that's all. A chance the Rockies might be a play in Game 2 but no lines yet.

BOL

Update: Tigers did not qualify. Rockies Game 2 if favored will be a play.

**BennyFang** · 07-31-17, 02:08 AM

ML 0-1; RL 0-1

7/31: no plays

**BennyFang** · 08-01-17, 12:54 AM

8/1: Nats if >-180, Jays if >-163.

BOL

**BennyFang** · 08-02-17, 12:08 AM

ML 1-1; RL 1-1

8/2: Pirates if >-167; Orioles if >-124, Cubs if >-180, Brewers if >-114, Mariners if favored, Angels if >-120, Giants if favored.

BOL

**bryanoens** · 08-02-17, 09:40 AM

appears system has faded in the late months compared to historical info. Hopefully we can kick it into gear. Thanks for continuing to post Benny

**BennyFang** · 08-02-17, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by bryanoens

appears system has faded in the late months compared to historical info. Hopefully we can kick it into gear. Thanks for continuing to post Benny

Glad to....looks like I'm the only one keeping this one going. It's hanging in 43-37 since ASB. Not bad, especially after that crazy 36-0 run a while back.

I'll probably keep it up to Labor Day, just think the integrity of the system will start wearing down by that point in the season. BOL