MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[barryt]

Tx Benny
Dbacks dropped to -190 so I played them they lost
Today 3 huge favourites, I won't be playing them. You would need to win all 3 games to make money or just 1 if you bet against them.
indians-240
dodgers -250 it's Kershaw and he got stung for 6 in 6 by the mets
Dbacks -210

[BennyFang]

Yeah.....I can't pull the trigger on those. Parlayed the Dodgers with the Rays and left the others alone.

[BennyFang]

6/25: Yankees, Braves, Royals if favored. Padres & Astros on the fence.

[BennyFang]

As of now only Yankees are a play. Braves probably a game time decision.

[barryt]

Following this system is very frustrating.
Becuse of other commitments ,I had to put my bets in by 1100am
At that time Braves -123 were a play along with Yankees at -208. The latter being a no play for me.
i double checked ATL odds at pinnacle and bet at -128, for sure it will be a play.
But guess what Braves become the dog so it's a no play but I'm on the hook for a 7-0 loss,
so systemm
record has no play on Braves while I lose best part of $200.... not fair and a real bummer!
Nyy lost also
yesterday 2-1 both ml and RL. I didn't bet but best one could do was maybe break even.

[barryt]

No plays today ,Monday June 26, as of 8am

[BennyFang]

6/27: Rockies, Dodgers if >-215, Tigers, Marlins if >-145, Red Sox if >-215

[barryt]

Tx benny
no plays yesterday

Tue

away

Rockies

Jeff Hoffman - R

Giants

Matt Cain - R

-135

8.5

Jun 27, 2017

box

Tue

home

Marlins

Dan Straily - R

Mets

Robert Gsellman - R

-150

7.5

Jun 27, 2017

box

Tue

home

Tigers

Justin Verlander - R

Royals

Matt Strahm - L

-165

9.0

Looks like )Yanks and Rsox dropped off
recheck at game time
barryt

[BennyFang]

6/28: Pirates if >-106, Blue Jays if >-160, Nats if >-160, Rangers if favored, Astros if >-152, Padres if >-112. Lots to keep an eye on.

[barryt]

Well benny down to 3 at 830am

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Astros

David Paulino - R

Athletics

Jesse Hahn - R

-175

9.5

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman - R

Orioles

Wade Miley - L

-175

9.5

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Pirates -120

Recheck at game time

went 2-1 yesterday only loss in OT
still hitting 67% ml 52% RL

[BennyFang]

I have Nats at 165 and Padres at 126 right now with my local. Rangers look like they've fallen out.

[barryt]

Now up to 4

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Astros

David Paulino - R

Athletics

Jesse Hahn - R

-180

9.5

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman - R

Orioles

Wade Miley - L

-195

9.5

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Padres

Luis Perdomo - R

Braves

Bartolo Colon - R

-121

8.5

Jun 28, 2017

box

Wed

home

Pirates

Ivan Nova - R

Rays

Blake Snell - L. -128

[BennyFang]

Well that was a good day 5-0.

6/29: Astros if >-180, D'backs if >-126, Brewers if >-108, Blue Jays if >-200

[BennyFang]

Astros ended up being only play, so 1-0 rl, 1-0 ml.

6/30: Cardinals almost certainly a play, Astros if >-200, Dodgers if >-215

[barryt]

Tx benny

I've got a bad cold just in time for Canada Day and July 4.
Didnt post nor play yesterday but Astros won at-200
So that makes it 8 in a row ml and RL
One play today 8pm, Cardinals -125 as long as they are Fav.
I'm betting now as tends to get more favourite as game time approaches.
Gl
Barryt

[BennyFang]

9-0 last nine. 7/1: Angels if favored, D'backs if >-143, and Pirates if >-120.

[barryt]

Yes 9-0 benny
Did a little homework for 2017 to see diff between huge Favs- 190 and less
Big Fav: RIOF and <=-190 ML 34-9; 79% RL 28-15; 65%
Smaller: RIOF and >-190. ML 74-41; 64% RL 57-58; 47%
RIOF All ML 108-50; 68% and RL 85-73; 53%
So huge favs win at a significantly higher% and high enough to validate betting, esp RL
2016 results not as good esp RL 46%. I used 2016 to base my decision not to bet those huge favourites, but I have been leaving money on the table this year.
Yesterday 1-0 that makes it 9 in a row, ml and RL , all Home teams by the way.
3 home team plays today, July 1. Canada day!

Jul 01, 2017

box

Sat

home

Angels

Ricky Nolasco - R

Mariners

Sam Gaviglio - R

-113

9.0

Jul 01, 2017

box

Sat

home

Diamondbacks

Zack Greinke - R

Rockies

Tyler Chatwood - R

-148

9.0

Jul 01, 2017

box

Sat

home

Pirates

Chad Kuhl - R

Giants

Matt Moore - L-125

Gl
barryt

[BennyFang]

Angels & Pirates have dropped off....... for now.

[BennyFang]

10-0 last 10. 7/2: Cubs if >-114, Brewers if >-125, Nats if favored, Royals if >-140, Yankees if favored.

[barryt]

Yes 10-0, but I actually went 2-1 as forced to bet early so included Pitt and LAA
at 10 am down to 2
Nationals -122, 8pm, Cubs -135 1pm

[teecee]

Yankees were the fave, correct me if I'm wrong

[MalikHusam]

max perfect game plz

[MalikHusam]

two innings, 5 Ks lol

[BennyFang]

For me the Yankees did slip in as a favorite, so 2-1 on my books

7/3: Nats if >-155, Rockies if >-150

[barryt]

Yankees were 101 at noonish and closed at 100 so they didn't qualify, but somehow while I wasn't looking Orioles became a play and won as did Cubs and Nats
i went 2-0 but RIOF went 3-0 for 13-0 streak both ml and RL..amazing
2 today , both at Home.
Nationals-165
Rockies -180
play early as lines will become for Fav IMO
gl
barryt

[thekoreanmang]

Yankees were 101 at noonish and closed at 100 so they didn't qualify, but somehow while I wasn't looking Orioles became a play and won as did Cubs and Nats
i went 2-0 but RIOF went 3-0 for 13-0 streak both ml and RL..amazing
2 today , both at Home.
Nationals-165
Rockies -180
play early as lines will become for Fav IMO
gl
barryt

Yeah, crazy streak. It'd be good to share the joy with TT. I still can't find him on that other site that's been mentioned before.

[BennyFang]

Rockies on the fence......my book had Yankees close at -109 yesterday so I played it. Not too concerned about those, that will even out over time. Orioles more of a concern simply because I quit monitoring it. I had played them anyway off another model I follow but not the point. Some lines yesterday ran hard the last few minutes before closing.

[thekoreanmang]

Rockies on the fence......my book had Yankees close at -109 yesterday so I played it. Not too concerned about those, that will even out over time. Orioles more of a concern simply because I quit monitoring it. I had played them anyway off another model I follow but not the point. Some lines yesterday ran hard the last few minutes before closing.

Is Rockies on the fence because of the Reds line?

[teecee]

Yankees were the fave, correct me if I'm wrong

Yankees were marked as a favorite by KillerSports (-108) when I posted this and I believe they were down 8-1. Then they changed it.

[BennyFang]

Is Rockies on the fence because of the Reds line?

Yes

[travis91]

So explain to me how this works ? You guys watch the opening lines and see if they move passed a certain # and if they do you think we should play them. So for today nats are looking like a lock and Rockies still looking good even though it's close ?

[bryanoens]

So explain to me how this works ? You guys watch the opening lines and see if they move passed a certain # and if they do you think we should play them. So for today nats are looking like a lock and Rockies still looking good even though it's close ?

Read thread from beginning. Reading is good

[travis91]

Read thread from beginning. Reading is good

Roger, sorry I usually always read the posts too becuase it's easy to find the info you need.

so for today as long as the closing lines are as according we should play ML and RL on those teams. Heard

[teecee]

This thread is absolutely killing it. What, 3-1 again this evening.

[BennyFang]

7/4: Brewers if >-120, Cubs if >-150, Cardinals if >-147, Rockies if >-160.