MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

BennyFang · 07-05-17, 02:26 AM

Only the Brewers ended up as a play, so 2-0 yesterday.

7/5: Oakland if >-160, Pirates if >-145, Mets if favored, Rangers if >-110.

barryt · 07-05-17, 12:54 PM

Missed posting yesterday but didn't miss 16th straight winner ,Brewers.
Streak also 15-1 on RL almost 16-0 as the Nats , winning 2-0, gave up a 2 run homer in 9 th with 2 out 2 strikes in the 9 th to eventually win 3-2, instead of 2-0 and 16 straight RL victories too.
Mainly due to the RIOF, In the past 2 months I've basically increased my BR 5 fold and recouped all previous lifetime on line betting losses.
Today2 games maybe 3
A s
MEts if Fav
Pirates if -146
Gl

thekoreanmang · 07-05-17, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by barryt

Missed posting yesterday but didn't miss 16th straight winner ,Brewers.
Streak also 15-1 on RL almost 16-0 as the Nats , winning 2-0, gave up a 2 run homer in 9 th with 2 out 2 strikes in the 9 th to eventually win 3-2, instead of 2-0 and 16 straight RL victories too.
Mainly due to the RIOF, In the past 2 months I've basically increased my BR 5 fold and recouped all previous lifetime on line betting losses.
Today2 games maybe 3
A s
MEts if Fav
Pirates if -146
Gl

Now, that's what I'm talking about, barryt! Good job and congrats!

Did you bet any other picks or follow anyone else during that 5x time?

teecee · 07-05-17, 10:18 PM

Yeah, these plays have been absolutely amazing.

Even took the Rangers to avoid the sweep @ home 2x m/l and 1x on the -1.5 @ +185 to boot.

Things are going very well, here.

BennyFang · 07-06-17, 03:54 AM

7/6: Rockies if >-150, Red Sox if >-165, Giants if favored, Cubs if >-165.

barryt · 07-06-17, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Now, that's what I'm talking about, barryt! Good job and congrats!

Did you bet any other picks or follow anyone else during that 5x time?

Yes LT profits, U/O First Inning and one other, but ROI much better on RIOF

barryt · 07-06-17, 06:44 AM

"And the beat goes on"
Two more wins and Mets rained out. 18 in a row!
It's getting hard to bet the full amount that the win% demands, when its 6 or 7 times ones usual bet. Think I've reached my Choke point of bet size,
1 or 2 today maybe 3
ROckies which brings up a clash of systems. I'm betting another system , Dog at Coors Field on Alternate RL .
Red Sox, if TBay gets to + 156. Indications are positive
Cubs would be a play if reached -166. Check at game time 2 pm
Gl
Barryt

kilopro · 07-06-17, 12:08 PM

Checking in again here. Amazing run for this system. Barryt thanks for keeping up with this and congrats on cashing these in! I've been playing sporadically based on some other factors as well. Keep up the good work!

barryt · 07-06-17, 12:39 PM

Bet Rockies., but reduced amount due to conflict with DOG -1.5 system that's +25 units too!But Rockies are 4-0ml when RIOF
Patiently waiting for Cubs to get to 166. Been at 165 forever( notice TT played Cubs@-165), but I'll wait or pass
Red Sox is also touch and no go as Rays sitting at 150 and need to get to 156

barryt · 07-06-17, 12:40 PM

Should be +12units not +25 in previous post

travis91 · 07-06-17, 01:38 PM

My book had cubs -170 so I played, hope it don't bite me in the ass, saw them on espn app at -164. What book do y'all use for your odds?

travis91 · 07-06-17, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by travis91

My book had cubs -170 so I played, hope it don't bite me in the ass, saw them on espn app at -164. What book do y'all use for your odds?

welp that bit me in the ass real quick

stickbit · 07-06-17, 04:59 PM

Unfortunately just now found this thread - incredible work guys! Curious how many units total is this system up this season ml and rl? I looked they thread and didn't see but maybe I missed it

NLChad11 · 07-06-17, 08:56 PM

Well it was a great run...thanks to those who keep the plays posted and follow the system for the benefit of all of us!

BennyFang · 07-07-17, 12:36 AM

Thud! 0-6......

7/7: D'backs if >-156, Mariners if >-152, Yankees if >-160, Rockies if >-175. BOL

barryt · 07-07-17, 07:56 AM

Winning streak ends with a crash.
"Disappears faster than a gamblers winning streak.." cole Porter?
Went 0-2 both ml and RL and Cubs who really looked like they shoulda been a play also got bombed.
On to today
3 games
Dbacks
Mariners
Yankees
gl
barryt
2017 results

118-52 (1.99, 69.4%)	avg line: -164.9 / 151.5	on / against: +$3,754 / -$4,397	ROI: +13.4% / -25.8%

94-76 (0.51, 55.3%)

avg line: 121.7 / -139.7

on / against: +$3,580 / -$5,124

ROI: +20.2% / -21.4%

BennyFang · 07-08-17, 07:22 AM

7/8: Dodgers if >-205, Mariners if >-165, D'backs if >-200, Rays if favored, Yankees if >-205, Blue Jays if favored. No line on BAL@MIN yet, could be an O's play. BOL

teecee · 07-08-17, 08:06 AM

Dodgers are 30-4 as a -200 fave and lower, fyi.

Yankees are 4-4.

D'backs are 4-3.

barryt · 07-08-17, 09:32 AM

2 potentials today
Blue jays -110
RAys -107
WARNING RIOF>=-125 LOSE MONEY about -10% ROI

barryt · 07-08-17, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by teecee

Dodgers are 30-4 as a -200 fave and lower, fyi.

Yankees are 4-4.

D'backs are 4-3.

RIOF <=-200
ml 29-8 78.4% ROI 13%
RL 23-14 66% ROI 16%

barryt · 07-08-17, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by teecee

Dodgers are 30-4 as a -200 fave and lower, fyi.

Yankees are 4-4.

D'backs are 4-3.

RIOF<=-200
Dodgers ml5-0 RL 3-2
Yankees ml 2-2 RL 2-2
Dbacks ml 3-0 RL 3-0

teecee · 07-08-17, 11:14 AM

Even better info

barryt · 07-08-17, 11:16 AM

At noon just the Blue Jays left at -120. I'm not going to play today

BennyFang · 07-08-17, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by barryt

2 potentials today
Blue jays -110
RAys -107
WARNING RIOF>=-125 LOSE MONEY about -10% ROI

Keep an eye on the Yankees, they're about 10 cents off a hour ahead. Question for the forefathers of this thread: will this model be valid the first two games after the ASB? As I see it, the model is somewhat based on a team's perceived momentum and that is gone after four days off in my opinion. I don't use SDQL but it that something that could be run?

k310 · 07-08-17, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by BennyFang

Keep an eye on the Yankees, they're about 10 cents off a hour ahead. Question for the forefathers of this thread: will this model be valid the first two games after the ASB? As I see it, the model is somewhat based on a team's perceived momentum and that is gone after four days off in my opinion. I don't use SDQL but it that something that could be run?

i would imagine so; add "rest >= 4" in the query for the first day and MAYBE "p:rest >= 4" for the second day after ASB.

barryt · 07-08-17, 11:52 AM

Made my other bets and rechecked BJs still -120 on SQDl! But almost -140 at all books.
what to do what to do? Will it go down to -140 after game time or stay at -120???
ill just pass

barryt · 07-08-17, 12:02 PM

[QUOTE=k310;27072971]i would imagine so; add "rest >= 4" in the query for the first day and MAYBE "p:rest >= 4" for the second day after ASB.[/QUOTE

The original queries that led to the RIOF did NOT Include any restrictions about allstar breaks, so included the results of games immeadiately following the ASB

Howevr what you say makes sense,but Werner you play any or not is not going to have a significant impact on the win %, assuming we are talking about upto 10 or so games.
Dont sweat the small stuff.

barryt · 07-09-17, 09:18 AM

Ended up with token bet (to win $20) on BJs. Upon closer review I shoulda played them at -125( see below)
Yanks didn't quite qualify but won 5-3 on 3 run walk off HR.
Using the "within 10 cents of the ROIF ", the Yanks would be a play. The ROI is a little lower but you get more bets. So if betting a fixed amount total profit would be higher.
2 Plays today
Rangers -191 estimated win% 75, big sample>100
Twins -122 estimated wins % 47, small sample 17
The twins bring up the same Q? as the BJs yesterday as Favs >-125 are a losing proposition with this system, but if they go to -125 or lower they are quite profitable. The win% is pretty flat up to -190 then increases again to make all plays -190 to -280 profitable.
As I compose this twins dropped off, so Rangers @3p
rexheck twins ..game time 2p
gl
barryt

barryt · 07-09-17, 09:22 AM

Oops twins dropping off was my error as I had changed SDQL temporarily.
So twins still qualify at -122, but I wouldn't play them unless they get some action to get to -125 at least.

burrissa · 07-09-17, 02:58 PM

Is the SDQL info correct? I've just started learning this stuff today and I'm not even sure if my query is correct. But I show Dirkx as the starter for Texas instead of Darvish when I run my query. Does it even matter since we're looking at the lines?

burrissa · 07-09-17, 03:01 PM

I also show all three times Darvish was in this situation this year he lost.

BuckeyeKaptn · 07-11-17, 01:38 PM

Back in early May, I noticed this thread. I put the parameters into my spreadsheet to automate, and then I didn't pay attention to this thread nor the numbers that were coming on my spreadsheet.
This system is easily doing the best out of the 20 or so that I'm tracking on my spreadsheet.

I don't know what the tweaks are for the system, but on my spreadsheet, it's just the 3 progressive going down VS the 3 regressive going up in ML odds. I base my numbers on when I refresh my odds for the day (from Vegas Insider). It could be early for weekend games or later during the week...no set time. The plays could be different than the threads.

Since May 11th, I have the system going 101-52 at $37.25 based on a dollar wager. The wager total is from the web site across the street where I am able to download the scores/lines each morning.

I reread the beginning post and saw that RLs were also a play. I just finished those numbers and came up with this:

77 - 76 $24.75

I forgot to mention that the above RL plays include dog plays at -1.5 (RRL).

I'm not into chasing plays though that's what I track....trying to find a diamond in the crap, and this looks like one.

BuckeyeKaptn · 07-11-17, 01:45 PM

The thread must have some tweaks in it because I have a few more than the thread for July 9th.

TEAM Odds W/L RL Odds
atl 123 L 210 -$1.00
stl -132 W 155 $1.55
tb -102 W 175 $1.75
min -114 L 155 -$1.00
tex -205 L -110 -$1.10
mil 148 W 220 $2.20
cws 103 L 160 -$1.00

(-1.71) on ML
+1.40 on RL

barryt · 07-11-17, 03:43 PM

One big tweak is it only considers the Favourite, so ATL, MIL and CWS wouldn't Qualify.
your query must be wrong as STL wouldn't qualify as it was more Fav last game-135 than July 9 ,-125.
maybe you are including all those within 10 of meeting the criteria. I don't play those .( although they do just as well this year)
playing only F that qualify since May 11 the system reports.

l

54-23 (2.14, 70.1%)	avg line: -175.0 / 159.6	on / against: +$1,486 / -$1,825	ROI: +11.0% / -23.7%
48-29 (0.68, 62.3%)	avg line: 118.7 / -138.8	on / against: +$2,834 / -$3,723	ROI: +34.5% / -34.3%

Bear in mind that the SQDL line is not always the closing line.
Based on these results one should forget about betting on the ml and put all your money on the RL
historical results are not quite as rosy. 2016 was basically break even but 2013 to date show similar results ,cept RL not quite as good.

817-410 (1.36, 66.6%)	avg line: -167.4 / 153.3	on / against: +$15,698 / -$21,147	ROI: +7.6% / -17.2%
581-645 (-0.13, 47.4%)	avg line: 135.7 / -147.2	on / against: +$12,615 / -$20,042	ROI: +10.1% / -11.0%

barryt · 07-11-17, 03:45 PM

Worried about the ASB..no need to be
2013 to 2016 SU: 730-368 (1.33, 66.5%) avg line: -166.8 / 152.8 on / against: +$13,776 / -$18,680 ROI: +7.5% / -17.0%RL: 514-583 (-0.17, 46.9%) avg line: 137.1 / -147.8 on / against: +$10,748 / -$17,049 ROI: +9.6% / -10.4%AASB 2013 to 2016 SU: 322-145 (1.56, 69.0%) avg line: -174.2 / 158.7 on / against: +$7,944 / -$10,006 ROI: +9.8% / -21.4%RL: 234-232 (0.07, 50.2%) avg line: 131.7 / -142.6 on / against: +$7,214 / -$9,890 ROI: +15.1% / -14.7%