MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

**jooshoowa** · 04-29-17, 11:29 AM

Hey TT, is the ML performance for games greater than -180 also at a positive ROI in that same time span?

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 11:33 AM

Ytd +7.3%

**Mackballs** · 04-29-17, 12:20 PM

Guys I don't mean to clog the thread with posts but I just want to get some confirmation that I'm wagering correctly.

Starting roll $4000 and starting to follow system today.

So for today's RIOF play on Washington as an example:

Washington -170 = 38 to win 20 (.05%)
Washington RL +115 = 17 to win 20 (.05%) - combined to win 40 which is 1%.

Assuming that is correct, Washington also qualifies as an RIOF4 play. Now I know TT said he is taking these to win 1.5%. Now is that 1.5% split between SU and RL equally to win .075% on each? And would that be added to the RIOF play to make it combined to win 2.5% total? So to win 1.25% on moneyline and to win 1.25% on runline.

So for Washington today I bet the following:

-170 - 38/20
-1.5 +115 - 17/20

Then added the RIOF4 amounts:

-170 - 57/30
-1.5 +115 - 26/30

Total to win 2.5% which is $100.

I hope I did it right lol thanks guys.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Guys I don't mean to clog the thread with posts but I just want to get some confirmation that I'm wagering correctly.

Starting roll $4000 and starting to follow system today.

So for today's RIOF play on Washington as an example:

Washington -170 = 38 to win 20 (.05%)
Washington RL +115 = 17 to win 20 (.05%) - combined to win 40 which is 1%.

Assuming that is correct, Washington also qualifies as an RIOF4 play. Now I know TT said he is taking these to win 1.5%. Now is that 1.5% split between SU and RL equally to win .075% on each? And would that be added to the RIOF play to make it combined to win 2.5% total? So to win 1.25% on moneyline and to win 1.25% on runline.

So for Washington today I bet the following:

-170 - 38/20
-1.5 +115 - 17/20

Then added the RIOF4 amounts:

-170 - 57/30
-1.5 +115 - 26/30

Total to win 2.5% which is $100.

I hope I did it right lol thanks guys.

Correct, other than a typo: *(0.5%) not (.05%)

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 12:29 PM

CLE at -190, looks like it will be a play!

**Mackballs** · 04-29-17, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Correct, other than a typo: *(0.5%) not (.05%)

Ha, Indeed. Also wash -190 not -170. Thanks.

**teecee** · 04-29-17, 01:28 PM

I got Washington at -174, Mack.

**teecee** · 04-29-17, 01:31 PM

Also, from post #390, I would just like to know how you insert btwn -180 and -400 in the query box at KillerSports.

**Mackballs** · 04-29-17, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by teecee

I got Washington at -174, Mack.

Good line there.

Cleveland a RIOF4?

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 01:36 PM

CLE is not RIOF4

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by teecee

Also, from post #390, I would just like to know how you insert btwn -180 and -400 in the query box at KillerSports.

I didn't, I just queried <-180. if I would've said "with odds smaller than -180" we would've started all back over again and questions would've poured in if "smaller than" means <-180 or >-180...

Anyway the query is line>=-400 and line <=-180

**Mackballs** · 04-29-17, 01:39 PM

Idk why I thought that it was. It was the dodgers who were listed in your initial post today as possible RIOF4.

Locking in Cleveland now.

**Dano85** · 04-29-17, 01:50 PM

I dont see Cleveland at -190 anywhere at covers opened at -190 now at -172

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 02:24 PM

in deed. As long as that above link shows -190, CLE is a play

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 03:15 PM

nope, closed at -170. If anyone did take it and can hedge out or cash out in game, I recommend to do it!

**Dano85** · 04-29-17, 03:21 PM

Mackballs says he locked it in at 2:39, which was the only reason i posted. Does killer have an actual live odds page?

Also regarding the system for cleveland today they would of been -190 yesterday -190 today had it stuck, should that be counted as "increasing"?

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 03:25 PM

nope. The system is tricky to play. These plays were the lines are close are real hard to play. Feel free to lay off of them if it's too much of a hassle! It's a headache for me too

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 03:59 PM

Just copy paste in to excel if you need to view it cleaner

**Mackballs** · 04-29-17, 05:06 PM

What line do we need on the dodgers?

**Mackballs** · 04-29-17, 05:18 PM

Ok... would be RIOF4 right?

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-29-17, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

CLE loss, both the RIOF and RIOF4 plays.

Today's pending RIOF plays:
NYY
WAS
LAD

RIOF4:
NYY
WAS
LAD

...

**Scrivero** · 04-30-17, 06:33 AM

I like the style of putting the results and the pending plays and the link to keep an eye on the lines all in one and same post!

Makes it easy and fun and fast to follow the progress of everything.

**barryt** · 04-30-17, 10:16 AM

It's about 11 am..little early but going racing this pm
DAY
Rays just have to be the FAV now at -110 PLAY
Braves just have to be the FAV now at -113 PLAY
Marlins need -126 now at - 132 PLAY
im playing those 3 now and passing on the next 2.
LAD need -216 now at -200 NO PLAY 4 pm game so should recheck around then.
NIGHT
Cubs need -116 presently the DOG at +107 hence NO PLAY

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-30-17, 11:25 AM

TB, ATL and MIA all looking like RIOF plays. If MIA and ATL qualify, they would be both RIOF4 plays.

**Dano85** · 04-30-17, 11:46 AM

Would watch the Marlins, dont think they will close at the required line...

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-30-17, 12:01 PM

TB and MIA both still qualify

**Dano85** · 04-30-17, 12:14 PM

at 1:14 Miami drops to -120

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-30-17, 12:14 PM

Nope, MIA did not make it!

**Mackballs** · 04-30-17, 12:18 PM

So do we hedge on Pitt now if we already put in Miami?

**Dano85** · 04-30-17, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Mackballs

So do we hedge on Pitt now if we already put in Miami?

might be tough to hedge them now

**GoodBadUgly** · 04-30-17, 01:07 PM

TechnicalTrader, would St. Louis today fall within a favorite with increasing odds (implied odds getting stronger) against a dog with increasing odds (implied odds getting weaker)? If the below were the actual odds, would St. Louis be a play today?
4/28/17 St. Louis -147 Cinci +125
4/29/17 St. Louis -172 Cinci +150
4/30/17 St. Louis -173 Cinci +155

I just want to make sure I understand the logic. Thank you.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-30-17, 01:13 PM

STL didn't play yesterday

**GoodBadUgly** · 04-30-17, 01:24 PM

Yes, you're right. But if those were the actual odds, and St. Louis and Cinci both played the previous two days, would St. Louis be a play today? Thanks.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-30-17, 03:28 PM

yes

**Dano85** · 04-30-17, 04:17 PM

Glad to see Miami hit for those who got it...didnt watch the game why did they pull Kuhl after 4?