MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[NLChad11]

Hey TT I appreciate that you spend time doing this, i'm not complaining. I know I can make the plays or not and whatever I choose is on me. I'm just saying you're tracking a system where the actual plays aren't plays until the game has started, and that's too late. So it's a false system and it doesn't work if you can't make the play.

And seriously, am I the only one seeing that yesterday you said the Cubs and Pit were possible plays? These 2 teams played against each other lol. Now your system is saying that 2 teams competing against each other can both be plays? How does that make sense?

[juveitalia]

Either follow or do not but stop complaining about someone giving you information free.

Completely agree with this. TT, keep up the great work. It's on everyone to check those lines before the game. The system is working and from past results will work out in the long run. Keep up the great work! Appreciate all the info!

[NLChad11]

I'm trying to find a book that takes bets after a game has finished. I have a great system that works with that, my testing over the last 5 seasons has shown 100% winners.

[TechnicalTrader]

Hey TT I appreciate that you spend time doing this, i'm not complaining. I know I can make the plays or not and whatever I choose is on me. I'm just saying you're tracking a system where the actual plays aren't plays until the game has started, and that's too late. So it's a false system and it doesn't work if you can't make the play.

And seriously, am I the only one seeing that yesterday you said the Cubs and Pit were possible plays? These 2 teams played against each other lol. Now your system is saying that 2 teams competing against each other can both be plays? How does that make sense?

No, I was referring to PITs line being not in line with all variables. Read OP, not just the fav but the dog also has to fulfil all of the criteria. I never said PIT was a play.

[NLChad11]

In post 245 you said you played Pit.

[Kenny King]

I noticed that too Chad. I just assumed he meant the Cubbies and went with it.

I have a feeling today is going to be a big day for the system that will get us back to the plus side! We have had some really tough luck so far that is due to change regarding timely hitting.

[juveitalia]

In post 245 you said you played Pit.

He meant the game with the cubs and pirates, not that we were betting on the pirates. The cubs were the play, he just referenced pit since the line didn't qualify.

[NLChad11]

Oh ok, got it. Not trying to be completely negative here. Just throwing out some problems with this system. I play all of them he lists that are really close, I figure I'm getting better odds anyway. I'm just a huge action junkie. But to follow this system exactly and exclusively is impossible since the actual play isn't confirmed until after the game starts so the previous years records are irrelevant because all the plays weren't actually playable before gametime.

[TechnicalTrader]

SEA has just qualified as a play and CIN is "currently" no longer a play. TOR is still a play.

TOR and SEA are both ROIF4 plays... as of now. Things could change.

For those who are still having difficulties reading plays, just go here and click on the posted teams. Check their last two lines and todays.


I am not getting anywhere close to a covers link today, going with exactly what I see at game time. For those who can't make in game plays (when I mean in game I am talking about when the home teams SP is warming up, before first pitch) I would suggest to just play anything close. I did the math on "close plays" like what we saw yesterday and the perform very similar to official plays.

For those interested; I am also playing TOR and CHC on a similar system (one of the variables is what we are playing here) all of the other variables are good to go, so if CHC's and TOR's line stay where we are I will play them also


Cliffs:

TOR and SEA are RIOF plays (as of now)
TOR and SEA are also RIOF4 plays (as of now)
CIN could still swing back
I am also playing CHC and TOR with a similar system
uuuuh, life is good. I keep on forgetting this and need to be more patient in here.

[thomaschau]

Oh ok, got it. Not trying to be completely negative here. Just throwing out some problems with this system. I play all of them he lists that are really close, I figure I'm getting better odds anyway. I'm just a huge action junkie. But to follow this system exactly and exclusively is impossible since the actual play isn't confirmed until after the game starts so the previous years records are irrelevant because all the plays weren't actually playable before gametime.

correct. also keep watching confirmation all day long is very hard for busy person

[TechnicalTrader]

Oh ok, got it. Not trying to be completely negative here. Just throwing out some problems with this system. I play all of them he lists that are really close, I figure I'm getting better odds anyway. I'm just a huge action junkie. But to follow this system exactly and exclusively is impossible since the actual play isn't confirmed until after the game starts so the previous years records are irrelevant because all the plays weren't actually playable before gametime.

The system is easy to follow, just need to keep your eye on lines. Using the link posted above will help. Again, I am only looking at killersports lines, don't care about covers, don't care about pinny, vegas, only killersports

[barryt]

To save some time , if teams played each other in the previous game, then one only needs to look up the line of the Fav and if that qualifies then the dog will automatically qualify!
eg blue Jays -150 playing orioles in 2 nd game of series, with a 10 cent line you know that orioles are +140. Q.E.D.

Have to careful though when teams are starting a series.

[Kenny King]

It looks like CIN qualified if I am reading right. Confirm?

[TechnicalTrader]

Nope, +102, -120, -110

[Kenny King]

Ahhh ok. On covers it goes from +102, -106, -111. I see why you are ONLY looking at killer now.

[TechnicalTrader]

Yesterday's plays:

RIOF:
SU: 2-0 (+2 units)
RL: 1-1 (+0.2 units)

RIOF4:
SU: 2-0 (+2 units)
RL: 1-1 (+0.2 units)


BR update:

RIOF:
SU: 15-6, +6.6 units (avg line; -151)
RL: 9-12, +0.5 units (avg line; -+139)

RIOF4 (these are YTD numbers, I've only been playing this since April 12th:
SU: 12-2 +9.7 units (avg line; -145.3)
RL: 7-7, +2.73 units (avg line; -+141)


Today's unofficial plays:

RIOF:
CLE, line at -175, target <-160
COL, line at +110,target <-100
TOR, line at -125, target <-145
CHC, line at -170, target <-250 (doubtful)
BOS, line at --140, target <-220(doubtful)
LAA, line at +108, target <-117(doubtful)
HOU, line at +100, target <-150(doubtful)
SEA, line at 105, target <-175(doubtful)

As of now, the only official RIOF play is CLE. Even if the CLE line holds up, it will not be a RIOF4 play. I have the feeling COL will drop and could see the same thing with TOR but we still have plenty of time until first pitch.

[barryt]

Almost noon. I see only one PLAY and that's Indians -220
For me that's a pass as odds are much too low. Even RL is less than even money.
Doing Woodbine races this aft
gl if you play Indians
barrt

[juicername]

Sorry if this derails too much, but there doesn't seem to be any SDQL thread running for MLB right now (we should get one going!).

I've discovered a trend I would like to run by you guys here. It's very simple; play favorite off three straight losses as favorite. Not a ton of plays, but at least a few every month with a 10% ROI since 2014, 12% ROI since 2012.

SDQL: season >=2012 and p:FL and pp:FL and ppp:FL and F

[TechnicalTrader]

Almost noon. I see only one PLAY and that's Indians -220
For me that's a pass as odds are much too low. Even RL is less than even money.
Doing Woodbine races this aft
gl if you play Indians
barrt

RIOF:
CLE is official, still waiting on LAA.

No RIOF4 plays as of now

[TechnicalTrader]

Sorry if this derails too much, but there doesn't seem to be any SDQL thread running for MLB right now (we should get one going!).

I've discovered a trend I would like to run by you guys here. It's very simple; play favorite off three straight losses as favorite. Not a ton of plays, but at least a few every month with a 10% ROI since 2014, 12% ROI since 2012.

SDQL: season >=2012 and p:FL and pp:FL and ppp:FL and F

Very nice query with as you mentioned low volume plays. I like it just don't like it's April, May performance. This is a query I'd play midseason: season >= 2012 and p:FL and pp:FL and ppp:FL and F and month

Take a look for yourself...

[FUqer]

Check out my thread if you want some SDQL. GL u guys.

[juicername]

Very nice query with as you mentioned low volume plays. I like it just don't like it's April, May performance. This is a query I'd play midseason: season >= 2012 and p:FL and pp:FL and ppp:FL and F and month
Take a look for yourself...

Good catch. That's why I wanted to run it by people with more SDQL experience than me.

Check out my thread if you want some SDQL. GL u guys.

Will do, cheers. Still think we need a general SDQL thread going too though

[TechnicalTrader]

Lost both the RL and SU bet last night. I'm off to Venice today and will be travelling in Italy for the next 6 days. Jlani will keep the thread going and has all of the needed tools.

I'll try to get the RIOF4 picks up from my phone but Italy is notoriously known for banning betting sites, so we'll see...

Today's pending picks:

RIOF:
ATL, current line -150, target <-128
NYY current line -145, target <-150
HOU current line -130, target <-150
LAD current line -158, target <-190

RIOF4:
Currently no plays

[barryt]

It's noon
all NIGHT games so I'll be back later but right now ATL is a play for certain.
NYY and HOU are on the edge
LAD looks like no play
back around 7p

[TechnicalTrader]

HOU looking good. Pain in the ass with limited i'net access here...

[barryt]

6 pm
Braves are a play
Hou at -142
NYY ok BUT White Sox only at 150 need >155
Dodgers only -155 won't make it
Have to go out so playing Braves now. If NYY become a go I'll have to play them in play.
should be back for Hou first pitch.
gl
barryt

[Sir-Ater]

6 pm
Braves are a play
Hou at -142
NYY ok BUT White Sox only at 150 need >155
Dodgers only -155 won't make it
Have to go out so playing Braves now. If NYY become a go I'll have to play them in play.
should be back for Hou first pitch.
gl
barryt

CWS are 155 today. So the NYY play is a go. The 150 you see is for tomorrow.

[jlani93]

Confirming these two plays so far...ATL -150 and NYY -165.

LAD still doesn't qualify, and HOU's line is currently -142 on killer. Need to keep an eye on that.

BOL!!

[barryt]

Oops my bad re white sox looked at the line of the bottom row rather than todaya 155
Yankees were a play.
Astros still -142

[TechnicalTrader]

SU 2-0
RL 1-1

BAL looking good and would also qualify as RIOF4
NYY getting there
CHC also close

[jlani93]

All PM games today. Today's pending picks:

RIOF:
NYY current line -190, target <-165
BAL current line -145, target <-104
TB current line -116, target <+120
ARZ current line -125, target <+150
CHC current line -170, target <-185

CHC is close to qualifying.
Remember to check the recheck the lines for changes (also opp. line).

[TechnicalTrader]

Update:

RIOF:
NYY current line -190, target <-165 -- Looking good
BAL current line -145, target <-104 -- Looking very good
TB current line -116, target <+120 -- Tigers line is only +106, we are looking for >+195. Something drastic needs to move this line.
ARZ current line -125, target <+150 -- Padres line would need to drop at least $0.20. I have my doubts here
CHC current line -170, target <-185 -- Cubs line is moving the wrong way. The way the Brewers are playing I doubt we'll get this play.

RIOF4:
IF BAL remains a play, it wil lalso be an RIOF4 play
If any of these qualify as RIOF plays, they will also be RIOF4 plays:
BAL, TB, ARZ, CHC



Thanks jlani!

Stats update:

RIOF:
SU: 17-7, +6.45 units
RL: 10-14, -0.27 units

I wasn't able to post them but ATL and NYY were both RIOF4 plays last night. Sorry guys, this trip is tough on me!

RIOF4:
14-2, +11.68 units
8-8, +2.99 units

[Kenny King]

The ML win percentage on these plays has been phenomenal. It's been so good in fact that it's hard to see it continue at the current win percentage since it is performing a little above expectation. By default, this means that the RL plays probably have some losses to endure in the very near future while the correction occurs. Am I overthinking it or does this make sense?

[barryt]

The ML win percentage on these plays has been phenomenal. It's been so good in fact that it's hard to see it continue at the current win percentage since it is performing a little above expectation. By default, this means that the RL plays probably have some losses to endure in the very near future while the correction occurs. Am I overthinking it or does this make sense?

I don't understand your point
4 previous years ml win rate was 2-1 65-66%
rl was , if I remember correctly,was 48%
this years numbers are pretty much inline with those numbers, despite small sample

[jlani93]

Unconfirmed plays for today:

LAD, current: -270, (target <-170)
NYY, current: -210, (target <-180)

Early play (unconfirmed):

STL, current: -125, (target <-135) ... As of 10 mins ago, both STL/PIT need 10 pts to qualify.