MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[ognj3n]

"197-218 SU and 251-163 RL"

Ah ok, I thought You used numbers going back to 2012, not 2013. Did not pay attention
Let us stick to the original plan for now, all the variations seems to confuse people.

Mail me and I will reply with query links, instead of using descriptions,
I am getting the postmaster got bit by dogs and the message could not be delivered response

[thekoreanmang]

Isn't BOS a play today?

According to OddsShark, BOS was +103, -104 and currently around -114. BAL was -116, -108 and now around +105.

[fataliz]

For those who are interested in playing dogs also. This should work:

same variables as in the OP, just one additional variable:

opposing team used more than 3 pitchers in previous game


Here are the numbers:

Note that 1 unit = $100.00, so 2016 won over 60 units, while 2015 performed the worst at +42 units:

games	SU	Avg Line	$ On	RL	Avg Run Line	$ RL On	SDQL
314	195-119 (1.20, 62.1%)	-144.7	+$3,735	161-152 (0.33, 51.4%)	110.3	+$2,930	season = 2013
320	197-123 (1.25, 61.6%)	-137.8	+$3,323	168-151 (0.41, 52.7%)	112.3	+$4,322	season = 2014
351	214-137 (0.75, 61.0%)	-142.4	+$4,205	166-185 (-0.14, 47.3%)	112.7	-$112	season = 2015
353	221-132 (0.84, 62.6%)	-146.3	+$4,087	180-172 (0.06, 51.1%)	106	+$2,093	season = 2016
10	9-1 (2.60, 90.0%)	-123.5	+$830	8-2 (1.40, 80.0%)	135.8	+$949	season = 2017

Today's plays would be:

DET and PHI


Again these are not official plays. If you guys are interested in these also, I might open a new thread. I am seriously considering dropping all of my systems and playing only these two along with my first inning system. If so, I'd have a lot more time for this.

wow. thanks for the work. is this RRL though? most of the RL's for dogs +1.5 don't really come with -ve odds

[Scrivero]

TT, I came up with an easy and possibly pretty profitable variation to the system with possibly much more plays. I already wrote it and asked for an assistance with an SDQL query to test it, but decided not to post it per not to mess up this thread.

Could I send it to you as a PM and get a bit of a hand with the query?

[TechnicalTrader]

I'll slowly start replying to questions during the next few hours....

Sooooo, we have some good and some bad news. Bad news first; we missed the COL play.


As you can see, some late line movement had it qualify. Crap like this really pisses me off. We would've slightly been up, winning SU but losing on the RL.

Mang, the Red Sox did not qualify. According to killersports, they went from -108 (on the 9th) to -104 to -122.

The good news, I am going to pause quite a few of my other systems and concentrate on these two. I'll have the logistics figured out relatively quickly...

[TechnicalTrader]

Dam midweek afternoon games! Wasn't expecting that and I missed playing it( sorta BE miss as they won 2-1 winning ml losing RL)
can we add game starting times to preliminary plays?
(Surprised the SDQL doesn't list game times , I'm sure aft/ night figures are important to some people.) and most books have them in ROT order so it's easy to miss an early start.

I'll see what I can do here, maybe when we post possible games, we'll add EST or Day/Night game

[TechnicalTrader]

The dog system
i didn't realize we were only on favs if the dog had descending odds and the Fav increasing odds I thought we played the dog. eg Boston on Sunday.
I wonder why you picked "using 3 pitchers" as a filter?

By increasing odds, I mean the value of the odds. We are playing fav's who have become stronger fav's over the last two games against dogs which have become bigger dogs over the last two games. We play the fav on third day of the trend

[TechnicalTrader]

Another question ,TT.
i know the system doesn't care, but do you place your bets as action or starting pitchers!

Ha, funny you asked! If I play an ace, I lock in his start, if I play against a turd, I lock in the turds start.

[TechnicalTrader]

TT, I came up with an easy and possibly pretty profitable variation to the system with possibly much more plays. I already wrote it and asked for an assistance with an SDQL query to test it, but decided not to post it per not to mess up this thread.

Could I send it to you as a PM and get a bit of a hand with the query?

Sure, I'll give it a look. Thanks.

BTW, I'm also based in Europe so we shouldn't have any major time difference issues.

[TechnicalTrader]

unofficial plays for April 12th:

WAS
DET
PHI
BOS

I also see a lot of close ones for the 12th. I will keep you guys posted as the day goes along.

Record:

SU: 12-3, +7.8 units
RL: 8-7, +4.3 units

I think it will be much, much easier if we just track units won. It's the easiest for me to track using SDQL and going forward, using both systems it will save me hours and hours...


games which could qualify:

CLE/CWS
HOU/SEA
MIA/ATL
PIT/CIN
COL/SD
KC/OAK

jlani posted the link where you can view teams lines, I am not going to post the targeted line of each of these teams. Just toooooo much work!

[TechnicalTrader]

Final thoughts and the next steps:

The dog system I posted yesterday actually performs even better when you only play fav's. I've come to the conclusion that we will never play dogs in this thread. It just simply doesn't make sense. We can talk about that later though.

The two systems I will play in here will be the "regressing / increasing odds on the favorite" and the "regressing / increasing odds on the favorite after the opponent used 4 or more pitcher in previous game". In order to save some space in here, let's just name them RIOF abd ROIF4. We can always change names later.

Here are the stats:

ROIF:
2013 - TD, SU; 1023-536, +201.3 units (RoI; SU 8.1%)
2013 - TD, RL; 748-809, +163.4 units (RoI; RL 10.3%)
worst season: +55.97 units in 2016 (both RL and SU)
2017 SU, 12-3, +7.8 units
2017 RL, 8-7, +4.33 units

ROIF4:
2013 - TD, SU; 694-346, +159.6 units (RoI; SU 9.5%)
2013 - TD, RL; 499-539, +104.3 units (RoI; RL 9.8%)
worst season: +34.08 units in 2016 (both RL and SU)
2017 SU, 9-1, +7.8 units
2017 RL, 6-4, +4.53 units


Now, I'm not sure if I should just shut this thread down and open a new one or keep this going. Thoughts anyone??

[Scrivero]

Sure, I'll give it a look. Thanks.

BTW, I'm also based in Europe so we shouldn't have any major time difference issues.

Thanks, youve got a PM

And you being in Europe probably enhances the chances of some discussion on systems for you and for me and for other Europe-based posters, as I am assuming most of the people here are from the US.

By the way, if you would need, I could post the unofficial plays' targeted lines if you wish? I wouldnt post them for the ones that "could qualify" as that would indeed be too much work (and maybe for nothing if they dont get close to being even unofficial). I would just post the target lines for the unofficial plays and exactly in the form of:

"Unofficial plays from TT above, waiting for confirmation:
Team X (-106)
Team Y (-178)
Team Z (-125)

The lines above are yesterday's closing lines. If today's line is smaller (larger favorites), then we have a play."

Let me know if you need it.

[Scrivero]

Final thoughts and the next steps:

The dog system I posted yesterday actually performs even better when you only play fav's. I've come to the conclusion that we will never play dogs in this thread. It just simply doesn't make sense. We can talk about that later though.

The two systems I will play in here will be the "regressing / increasing odds on the favorite" and the "regressing / increasing odds on the favorite after the opponent used 4 or more pitcher in previous game". In order to save some space in here, let's just name them RIOF abd ROIF4. We can always change names later.

Here are the stats:

ROIF:
2013 - TD, SU; 1023-536, +201.3 units (RoI; SU 8.1%)
2013 - TD, RL; 748-809, +163.4 units (RoI; RL 10.3%)
worst season: +55.97 units in 2016 (both RL and SU)
2017 SU, 12-3, +7.8 units
2017 RL, 8-7, +4.33 units

ROIF4:
2013 - TD, SU; 694-346, +159.6 units (RoI; SU 9.5%)
2013 - TD, RL; 499-539, +104.3 units (RoI; RL 9.8%)
worst season: +34.08 units in 2016 (both RL and SU)
2017 SU, 9-1, +7.8 units
2017 RL, 6-4, +4.53 units


Now, I'm not sure if I should just shut this thread down and open a new one or keep this going. Thoughts anyone??

Well, first of all, to your previous post, I think its an awesome idea to just track the system progress with just units won by tracking it via SDQL. Im certainly gonna use the same idea if I can in my systems.

Amd about shutting this thread down and starting a new one... well the first post in this thread is still correct info mostly. You have just added the dog system to it. One way would be to of course just edit the original post to include info on the dog system as well and some updated info on how you track the results etc.

A new thread would not be a bad idea either though, one could explain everything how stuff will work, as in: "There are these two systems... this is how the unofficial plays will come to the thread... this is how you can check if they become playable (jlani's links and someone posting the targets possibly).... this is how the systems have done since 2013....etc."

[TechnicalTrader]

I've added one more variable to the RIOF4 system in order to filter out a few more losses. I will not share this final filter with the public because it is a variable I use for a few other systems which run very well. I actually like the RIOF4 better than the system I originally posted and will be playing 1.5% BR for those picks, yes three times more than the normal system.

Here we go, these are today's unofficial picks:

unofficial plays for April 12th:

RIOF System:
WAS (early game)
DET (early game)
PHI
BOS

pending RIOF confirmation:
CLE
HOU
MIA
PIT
COL (early game)
KC

RIOF4 System:
PHI

pending RIOF4 confirmation:
CLE
HOU
MIA
PIT
All plays would be SU and on the RL. More to follow soon.

[barryt]

WAS, DET, and Col are DAY games! Don't miss out.
also CLE is at 6:10 pm

PS TT great minds think alike ; at the same time too! LOL

[Scrivero]

Damn, sometimes I wish I lived in a different timezone. Again I am able to play just 0-3 of those games depending on which make it. I'll just keep playing the unofficials at least until they start giving me a loss. I dont dare to even dream about playing the pending ones, even if I would like to. I know the stats were not very promising for playing the unofficials instead of just the confirmed ones but I like to gamble sometimes and I love this system.

Is there a way to schedule bets on Pinnacle or somewhere else? That is, make the bet now and give some criteria such as odds need to be lower/higher than X at exactly 0.55 PM ET and if they are then the bet is made automatically?

[Capybara]

Geez, why was I not already in this thread?

Outstanding work as usual, TT... Will be following.

[TechnicalTrader]

Damn, sometimes I wish I lived in a different timezone. Again I am able to play just 0-3 of those games depending on which make it. I'll just keep playing the unofficials at least until they start giving me a loss. I dont dare to even dream about playing the pending ones, even if I would like to. I know the stats were not very promising for playing the unofficials instead of just the confirmed ones but I like to gamble sometimes and I love this system.

Is there a way to schedule bets on Pinnacle or somewhere else? That is, make the bet now and give some criteria such as odds need to be lower/higher than X at exactly 0.55 PM ET and if they are then the bet is made automatically?

Yes, and that is something I am working on. Pinnacle has an API service...

[TechnicalTrader]

Be careful with Detroit, their line is trending in the wrong direction and are currently no longer qualifying. The line might move back so please check here first:


Their closing line needs to be sub -140 (-141 or lower).

WAS, PHI (twice) and BOS are all looking good!

[CONNEMARA]

Good Morning All from Alaska!
Fantastic work TT, may I have the opportunity to join in. What does (twice represent)?

[CONNEMARA]

One more Question. Are we doing same units on money line and run line for all wagers.

[Capybara]

Waiting on TT for the go-ahead...

[TechnicalTrader]

Twice as in for both systems.

I am risking to win 1 unit on RL and ML. I guess we'll just keep it simple and risk 1% BR (1 unit) on each play.

So the first play is (although those who would like to play it safe can wait for the line to close, I am taking it now):

RIOF
PHI, RL&ML (to win 1 unit each)

RIOF4
PHI, RL&ML (to win 1 unit each)

Detroit is still tight. I am seeing -135, we need to get under -140 for a play:

[TechnicalTrader]

Waiting on TT for the go-ahead...

Caps, my man! It's about time you stopped by!!

Thanks for coming in. Are all of the rules clear? Let me know if you don't understand anything.

[TechnicalTrader]

One more thing:

Can someone keep their eye on that DET killersports link I posted and let us know where the line is right before the game starts? I'll be on the road for the next 45 minutes.


NYY/TB is a def no play!

[barryt]

1 pm -135 seems to be holding there, and that would be a no play!

[TechnicalTrader]

DET is a play. Check boxscore link. Late money coming in.




DET IS OFFICIAL!

[TechnicalTrader]

God damnit. Just bounced back to -135.


Going nuts right now. I'm playing it

[barryt]

1 pm -135 seems to be holding there, and that would be a no play!
109 p still -135 pass for me
1:13 game started still -135
from covers -140 but killer still -135: VI also -140.

BATTING: Jorge Polanco

PITCHING: Michael Fulmer

MIN	1	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	+130		2	0
DET	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-140	8.5	0	0

[hutasadorn]

DET is a play. Check boxscore link. Late money coming in.






DET IS OFFICIAL!

TT how do you see late money coming in? I do not see the line on the box score link.

[Kenny King]

Covers has it closing at -138 unless I'm reading it wrong

[Kenny King]

Nope, -143 I meant

[TechnicalTrader]

-135... not a play. Oh well.

[barryt]

WASH definitely a play butodds -200 are too low for me . But RL at 110 is above my +108 threshold

[TechnicalTrader]

WASH definitely a play butodds -200 are too low for me . But RL at 110 is above my +108 threshold

I understand that -200 is a lot of juice, but this system has a 65.6% hit rate and is 12-3 in 2017. I'm just saying...