MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[jlani93]

Just a quick heads up...looks like we may have a play on the Astros tonight (unofficial). I'll be back to confirm it later this afternoon.

Thanks again TT for all your help! BBS.

[Rusty Bucket$]

Thanks for the thread TT and Jlani! I will be following and best of luck!

[oilcountry99]

[QUOTE=TechnicalTrader;26893729]

Yes, the ML and RL bets are separate bets and should be calculated that way. The risk I take on a ML is much different than that on the RL.

Let's do this and keep this ball rolling!

Please clarify, the risk you take on ML is much different than the risk you take on RL?

Are you risking 0.5% on ML and risking 0.5% on RL? Total Risk is always 1% per wager?

[dogman]

Looking at the stat fox closing lines I see on the 5th KC was-100 and on the 6th they were -105 ,so because the lines got better not worse, wouldn't they not be a bet against

[barryt]

Take a look at the Angels' odds from April 4th until April 6th then look at how the A's lines evolved from the 4th until the 6th.

http://www.sportstats.com/baseball/usa/detail/oakland-athletics-xIYDcQid/#results

We are only looking at closing lines!

The Angels odds went from:

-125 to -119 to -114

The A's lines went from:

+102 to -101 to -116

We took the Athletics on the third day because their odds got stronger and stronger over three days. This is called momentum trading or trading with the trend.

I honestly do not know how to make this clearer. This is all I can do for you, if you still don't understand how the system works, reread the first post or maybe ask someone else in here.

Sorry if I can't help you,
TT

I think what is confusing ( to me & others) is that the system is based on FINAL lines of 3 games , but bets have to be made on PRE-GAME lines of game3 for which there is not yet a FINAL line.Results are then graded on FINAL lines.
Or maybe I'm still confused.

[TechnicalTrader]

[QUOTE=oilcountry99;26893948]

Please clarify, the risk you take on ML is much different than the risk you take on RL?

Are you risking 0.5% on ML and risking 0.5% on RL? Total Risk is always 1% per wager?

No, total risk (using my money management) is to win 0.5%.

See OP:

+quote+

MONEY MANAGEMENT

As you can see the system can be very active so on some days so we might see up to 6 picks a day. That is why I STRONGLY suggest to NOT risk to win more than 2% of your BR on a single bet. I also recommend to not chase. This is not a chase system. I also suggest to play not only straight up, but also the run line on each pick.

I personally will only be risking to win 0.5% of my bankroll on each pick and my MLB bankroll is $10K.

History says May will most likely be a down month while July is it's strongest performing month. I am hoping to get our first picks on April 6th or April 7th.

+end quote+

depending on where RL's are I could be risking something like 1.5% to win 0.5%.

[TechnicalTrader]

I think what is confusing ( to me & others) is that the system is based on FINAL lines of 3 games , but bets have to be made on PRE-GAME lines of game3 for which there is not yet a FINAL line.Results are then graded on FINAL lines.
Or maybe I'm still confused.

Nope, you got it.


I think the problem is, my approach. I don't f around when I bet, I don't bet with emotions and I don't gamble. I also believe US odds are garbage and decimal odds is what every bettor should use.

It's always going to be difficult understanding what I'm trying to do because my approach isn't your typical "nail it, pound" "bla, bla, bla" approach.

I'll try to be clearer in the future.

[TechnicalTrader]

Looking at the stat fox closing lines I see on the 5th KC was-100 and on the 6th they were -105 ,so because the lines got better not worse, wouldn't they not be a bet against

These are the KC lines I see:

+100
+102
+148


I don't remember seeing KC as favorites anywhere...

Next time please post your link.

[snider]

Layman's terms. today's odds count as the 3rd game. One team is getting stronger the other is getting weaker each day til first pitch when they play each other. He said killersports odds are almost exactly as covers

houston is at -159 now at pinny

[TechnicalTrader]

Layman's terms. today's odds count as the 3rd game. One team is getting stronger the other is getting weaker each day til first pitch when they play each other. He said killersports odds are almost exactly as covers

houston is at -159 now at pinny

Yeah, it looks like we are pretty much good to go on HOU. I don't think that line will close above -156. (I have it closing at -155 yesterday).

And yes, killersports is free.

[garvardntl]

I feel oilcountry99 is asking to make sure a) this thread is transparent and b) he doesn't misuse the information - nothing is worse than tailing a winning thread incorrectly and ending up in the red!

My interpretation of what OP is saying is this: any given play will be split in two bets: RL and ML. He has his own system which I believe treats RL bets as a red-headed stepchild (he risks considerably less on these riskier plays). In no way trying to critique his system, I am sharing mine.

I still bet to win approximately 0.5% if both RL and ML bets win. Actual number fluctuates as the examples will show, but it’s usually around 0.45%. My system turns a small profit every time I get a split (betting the favorite, win ML and lose RL and betting the underdog, lose ML and win RL).

The logical way is to bet the larger portion of the split bet on higher-juice proposition (ML for the favorite), and smaller portion - on the lower-juice, often plus-money proposition (RL for the favorite).

Out of a $1000 bankroll, we would want to win $50 if both bets win:

Example 1: Toronto Blue Jays yesterday were -140/1.714 ML and +120/2.200 RL

To do the calculations, I use decimal odds. -140 equals 1.7143… (just divide 100/140), and +120 is simply 2.20...
I divide 1200/714 giving me 1.681, this ratio helps determine bet size quickly.
Risk 1.68 times more on the high-juice bet than low-juice bet. In this case, we are risking 1.68 times more money on ML than RL (this ratio will be reversed whenever we bet an underdog).

Since average odds are about -105 (sum of 0.714+1.200 divided by 2, equals 1.957, roughly -105), we will be risking approximately $52 to win $50 on two bets combined:
$52 = 1.00*x + 1.68*x
2.68*x = $52
x = $19.4

Risk $32.60 on ML... 32.6 at 1.714, win = $23.27
Risk $19.40 on RL... 19.4 at 2.200, win = $23.28

Example 2: Houston Astros today with current lines, ML -160 and RL +130

-160 is 1.625
+130 is 2.30
Divide 1300/625 = 2.08
Average odds = 1.96 (-104), we’ll be risking $50*1.04 = $52 again
$52 = 1.00*x + 2.08x… so we risk twice as much on the lower-risk play (ML in this case)
3.08*x = $52
x = $16.88
2.08*x = $35.11

Risk $35.11 on ML… 35.11 at 1.625, win = $21.94
Risk $16.88 on RL… 16.88 at 2.30, win = $21.94

[TechnicalTrader]

I feel oilcountry99 is asking to make sure a) this thread is transparent and b) he doesn't misuse the information - nothing is worse than tailing a winning thread incorrectly and ending up in the red!

My interpretation of what OP is saying is this: any given play will be split in two bets: RL and ML. He has his own system which I believe treats RL bets as a red-headed stepchild (he risks considerably less on these riskier plays). In no way trying to critique his system, I am sharing mine.

I still bet to win approximately 0.5% if both RL and ML bets win. Actual number fluctuates as the examples will show, but it’s usually around 0.45%. My system turns a small profit every time I get a split (betting the favorite, win ML and lose RL and betting the underdog, lose ML and win RL).

The logical way is to bet the larger portion of the split bet on higher-juice proposition (ML for the favorite), and smaller portion - on the lower-juice, often plus-money proposition (RL for the favorite).

Out of a $1000 bankroll, we would want to win $50 if both bets win:

Example 1: Toronto Blue Jays yesterday were -140/1.714 ML and +120/2.200 RL

To do the calculations, I use decimal odds. -140 equals 1.7143… (just divide 100/140), and +120 is simply 2.20...
I divide 1200/714 giving me 1.681, this ratio helps determine bet size quickly.
Risk 1.68 times more on the high-juice bet than low-juice bet. In this case, we are risking 1.68 times more money on ML than RL (this ratio will be reversed whenever we bet an underdog).

Since average odds are about -105 (sum of 0.714+1.200 divided by 2, equals 1.957, roughly -105), we will be risking approximately $52 to win $50 on two bets combined:
$52 = 1.00*x + 1.68*x
2.68*x = $52
x = $19.4

Risk $32.60 on ML... 32.6 at 1.714, win = $23.27
Risk $19.40 on RL... 19.4 at 2.200, win = $23.28

Example 2: Houston Astros today with current lines, ML -160 and RL +130

-160 is 1.625
+130 is 2.30
Divide 1300/625 = 2.08
Average odds = 1.96 (-104), we’ll be risking $50*1.04 = $52 again
$52 = 1.00*x + 2.08x… so we risk twice as much on the lower-risk play (ML in this case)
3.08*x = $52
x = $16.88
2.08*x = $35.11

Risk $35.11 on ML… 35.11 at 1.625, win = $21.94
Risk $16.88 on RL… 16.88 at 2.30, win = $21.94

Very nice, outstanding approach!! Good stuff in here! I wish we could get more of this type of info in here!

[griffey_mojo]

TT

Are we definitely playing on Houston or should we wait ?

TIA

[TechnicalTrader]

I'd still wait. I will check in about 2 hours before gametime and decide, only because I live overseas and don't feel like staying up until 2AM...

[Slanina]

Rock N Roll.

[griffey_mojo]

I'd still wait. I will check in about 2 hours before gametime and decide, only because I live overseas and don't feel like staying up until 2AM...

Thanks TT !!!!

[jlani93]

We're off to a great start so far. Lets keep it going!

Making this an official play.
PLAY 3) Astros -158, betting 1-unit.

Keeping an eye on multiple bets for tomorrow.

Btw, have unexpected houseguests until Sunday. So thanks for bearing w/me a couple more days.

[TechnicalTrader]

Tough night. As a matter of fact that HOU line moved but we will still count it as a play and loss. MIAs line qualified but I was in bed and missed it. Oh well!

[teecee]

Thanks for bringing this "system" to our attention. Fwiw, I would not count Houston as loss, as it does not fall within the parameters of the system. Good day.

[TechnicalTrader]

Jlani, I think moving forward we should post all picks around 10:00 AM EST and just confirm before the start of each game. Those who want to play it by themselves can simply check the teams line which we are playing and make sure it is below that teams previous line.

For example, we have the following picks lined up for today:

CHC
STL
TEX
TB
CWS

Yesterdays' White Sox line was -112, today's line is -115. This game could easily disqualify within minutes from now. The Rays play is almost guaranteed, their previous closing line was +105 and we are now sitting at -113. Similar case with STL, their current line is $0.15 under yesterdays.

This is going to get tricky moving forward. I'd like to hear from those who are playing the system and see how they would like to see the picks posted.

Super pissed about yesterday's matchups. We could've gone from being down about 1.7% to up 1%. That's 2.7% of BR due to late line movement. I'm hoping this will not be a season long issue!

[jlani93]

Jlani, I think moving forward we should post all picks around 10:00 AM EST and just confirm before the start of each game. Those who want to play it by themselves can simply check the teams line which we are playing and make sure it is below that teams previous line.

For example, we have the following picks lined up for today:

CHC
STL
TEX
TB
CWS

Yesterdays' White Sox line was -112, today's line is -115. This game could easily disqualify within minutes from now. The Rays play is almost guaranteed, their previous closing line was +105 and we are now sitting at -113. Similar case with STL, their current line is $0.15 under yesterdays.

This is going to get tricky moving forward. I'd like to hear from those who are playing the system and see how they would like to see the picks posted.

Super pissed about yesterday's matchups. We could've gone from being down about 1.7% to up 1%. That's 2.7% of BR due to late line movement. I'm hoping this will not be a season long issue!

k, post a heads up and confirm plays closer to game time. Sounds good.


Current lines:
STL -190
TB -118
CHC -175
TEX -177
CWS -120


TT, before confirming STL as a play today...would you suggest increasing our units to 2% on STL and TB or play it safe at 1%?

[2buckluck]

My thought is I like this, do like the above and post the qualifying Teams early, if people want to play them they should... For me, TB lines up with my system, CWS doesn't... the other 3 are too much juice for what I like, so might go .5 U on the RL's only ... still looking at those games...

Again that's just my personal modification, I take all info into what I already use as a system, so not playing this system exclusively...

For the sake of the thread I'd decide now if you want to post the 5 above as leans only, but only score the closing lines (like you mention early on ) ... I mean you're just trying to help people so whatever you want, But either way some consistency with picks and tracking will be important ... Best of luck!

[teecee]

The past results are based on closing lines, so target potential plays early - this can be done on our own - then put in the plays around game time.

The parameters for making plays have been set forth. I think people should find a site for closing lines and stick with it, whether they are from your source or not. At least there will be consistency and less confusion. I am using Vegas Insider b/c the info is organized well and doesn't cost me a lot of time. I may have slightly different results, but that is okay.

Fwiw, we have the exact same games targeted today while using different sources.

[teecee]

k, post a heads up and confirm plays closer to game time. Sounds good.


Current lines:
STL -190
TB -118
CHC -175
TEX -177
CWS -120


TT, before confirming STL as a play today...would you suggest increasing our units to 2% on STL and TB or play it safe at 1%?

I realize you have agreed to post plays and track the success of the system, but ultimately it is my responsibility as an investor to keep things straight. Thank you so much for your time and effort.

[TechnicalTrader]

I'd still play it safe. we might be getting 3-5 plays every single day for the next 5 months. No need to push it.

I'd rather risk less and end the season up 20% than stress myself out daily with 20-30% of my BR on the line and end the season either up 40% or down 40%...

CWS looks like a play, I'm confident it will fall. We might even see a few more plays, we'll see.

[TechnicalTrader]

The past results are based on closing lines, so target potential plays early - this can be done on our own - then put in the plays around game time.

The parameters for making plays have been set forth. I think people should find a site for closing lines and stick with it, whether they are from your source or not. At least there will be consistency and less confusion. I am using Vegas Insider b/c the info is organized well and doesn't cost me a lot of time. I may have slightly different results, but that is okay.

Fwiw, we have the exact same games targeted today while using different sources.

very good info, poster above also. Thanks fellows!!

[TechnicalTrader]

I realize you have agreed to post plays and track the success if the system, but ultimately it is my responsibility as an investor to keep things straight. Thank you so much for your time and effort.

I'm a fan of your words. Good stuff in here. Those who are adding value content to this thread, please keep it coming. the more quality we have in here, the further trolls will stay away!

[jlani93]

I'd still play it safe. we might be getting 3-5 plays every single day for the next 5 months. No need to push it.

I'd rather risk less and end the season up 20% than stress myself out daily with 20-30% of my BR on the line and end the season either up 40% or down 40%...

CWS looks like a play, I'm confident it will fall. We might even see a few more plays, we'll see.

Agreed.

[jlani93]

Confirming our 1st play of the day.

PLAY 4) STL -190, risking 1%.

[TechnicalTrader]

Confirming our 1st play of the day.

PLAY 4) STL -190, risking 1%.

Woah, I have CWS as a play and I took it.... Please check the query.

For those who missed it, see if you can get similar odds live. The White Sox are terrible, they'll give up their lead!

[teecee]

Made the move on the Sox m/l, myself.

[TechnicalTrader]

Made the move on the Sox m/l, myself.

Good job. The other three plays are also looking good. If all three of the lines hold up; TEX,TB and CHC are all SU and ML plays. Very busy day.


Tomorrows' lines to watch are:

CHC
STL
NYM
BOS

[TechnicalTrader]

CWS and STL both looking very good. If we win both SUs and RL's, we'll be up 6% (12 * 0.5%). All of the other three plays also look like a go:

Jlani, could you please confirm later??

TB, TEX, CHC are all pending for today.

[Rusty Bucket$]

Kinda pissed i missed the other 2 plays. Thanks for putting in the work TT you're doing a great job here

[TechnicalTrader]

Yeah, I'm also pissed I screwed up yesterdays play, losing a non-play and missing a winning-play.

I think we'll logistically have things figured out in here within the next few days. But the your best option is to just track the plays yourself... The system rules are all posted,it's just a matter of finding games which fit the criterion.