MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

**jlani93** · 04-08-17, 04:39 PM

So far so good today. I could have sworn CWS was already confirmed.

Confirming the rest of the plays for to the day.

TB -120, risking 1%
CHC -174, risking 1%
TEX -180, risking 1%

**teecee** · 04-08-17, 04:41 PM

I'll have to play Cubbies live. Come back in from doing yard work and they're at -212.

**snider** · 04-08-17, 05:43 PM

TT what is the query i type in to see these lines at killer

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 02:19 AM

CHC, STL, CWS were all 1% winners each (3% total)
TB won SU for 0.5%

The losses were: TEX (both RL and SU) and TB on the RL for a total loss of -1.58% BR

So all in it was a +1.92% day.

The system was previously up 3 days in a row (1 bet a day), winning both RL's and SU's on all three bets. Your starting BR was $600.00, the BR yesterday was $618.18 and after deducting yesterdays losing and adding the winning bets we currently sit at $630.05 or up a little over 5%.

jlani, when placing new bets, please place to win 0.5% of the current BR. We are not betting 0.5% of "the starting BR" each day. If the system is a winner, we will win accumitively.

So by using your current BR of $630.05 and assuming all 5 of the lines of all five of today's picks remain where they are or increase as favorites, you will be "risking to win" $3.15 and a total of $31.50 on each bet today.

I hope this is clear and also that everyone else understands.

The system is currently at:

13:3 total
(7:1 Straight up
6:2 on the run line)

Today's pending bets as of now are:

HOU
STL
NYM
BOS
CWS

Let's see where these lines close or if any more bets are added.

**dogman** · 04-09-17, 06:27 AM

TT, just curious in your past records, how much less in units the RL did compared to the ML. Maybe placing 2 units just on the ML would be more profitable than splitting the wager between both.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by dogman

TT, just curious in your past records, how much less in units the RL did compared to the ML. Maybe placing 2 units just on the ML would be more profitable than splitting the wager between both.

From April 2013 to date:

Straight up:
1018-534, +198.7 units, avg line -160.1

Run Line:
746-804, +165.5 units, avg line +132.4

The RL performed better than SU during some seasons, vise versa for other seasons. I see the RL bet more as a hedge/leverage I guess you can say.
As for today's picks, the above five teams still look good....

**barryt** · 04-09-17, 09:53 AM

From April 2013 to date:Straight up:1018-534, +198.7 units, avg line -160
Run Line:746-804, +165.5 units, avg line +132.4

Ran those figs thru Kelly calculator at 1/2 Kelly for a singlei play.Kelly says to bet 4.5% of BR on ml; 4.25% of a separate BR on RL. ISo to make life easy for oneself just bet the same on both,4.3% If using same BR, Kelly says to bet 4.3% ml: 4% RL. If there are 2 or more simultaneous games a slightly smaller bet on each is called for.

I'm going to try this out for April using a small BR. I would expect to play about 50 games , 2 per day, on both ml and rl 100 bets.4 per day. At average of 2 sets of bets from the same BR. Kelly says to play3.97% ml and 3.73% RL. Averaging that out is 3.85%
For simplicity, I'll use $250 BR and bet 4% , $10 , on both ml and RL for all qualifying games at odds better than -160 (>1.62) and +132 (>2.32) and pass on those with worse odds.
I'll keep track and post results periodically.
I'll rely on your posts to identify the plays.
Tx for doing this!
Barryt

**barryt** · 04-09-17, 10:05 AM

Forgot to ask
was the +198 units for 2013-2016 based on risking 1 unit or to win 1 unit( I.e 100 to win $62 or 160 to win 100)

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 11:08 AM

I'll start replying to above posts later. This is what we are looking at now:

HOU/NYM/BAL/BOS/CWS

Looks like STL no longer qualifies but BAL does. Those who are trying to play this as accurate as possible, I suggest you check every line right before the premarket for that game closes

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by barryt

From April 2013 to date:Straight up:1018-534, +198.7 units, avg line -160
Run Line:746-804, +165.5 units, avg line +132.4

Ran those figs thru Kelly calculator at 1/2 Kelly for a singlei play.Kelly says to bet 4.5% of BR on ml; 4.25% of a separate BR on RL. ISo to make life easy for oneself just bet the same on both,4.3% If using same BR, Kelly says to bet 4.3% ml: 4% RL. If there are 2 or more simultaneous games a slightly smaller bet on each is called for.

I'm going to try this out for April using a small BR. I would expect to play about 50 games , 2 per day, on both ml and rl 100 bets.4 per day. At average of 2 sets of bets from the same BR. Kelly says to play3.97% ml and 3.73% RL. Averaging that out is 3.85%
For simplicity, I'll use $250 BR and bet 4% , $10 , on both ml and RL for all qualifying games at odds better than -160 (>1.62) and +132 (>2.32) and pass on those with worse odds.
I'll keep track and post results periodically.
I'll rely on your posts to identify the plays.
Tx for doing this!
Barryt

Great stuff, +4% on a single bet is too risky for me but I'd love to see how it works out for you. Would you like to track your bets in here? I think it would be great to compare live!

Thanks,
TT

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by barryt

Forgot to ask
was the +198 units for 2013-2016 based on risking 1 unit or to win 1 unit( I.e 100 to win $62 or 160 to win 100)

To win 1 unit

**barryt** · 04-09-17, 11:20 AM

Revised my qualifying odds rates from the average odds to the implied win rate odds for the 2013-2016 stats.Ml 1018/1552=65.59%:-190: (1.52)RL 746/1550=48.13%: +108: (2.08)Which gives me 4 afternoon plays on ml and RL
BOS -115:+165
CHX -135:+160
(HOU -192: +105 right on the edge of being a play at -190 +105 should I or shouldn't I. Agh! NO!! Actually shouldn't HOU have to be -205 to be a play!)
And 1 play tonight NYM -165 :+130
It's noon now and I'm betting all 4 afternoon plays now, watching the Masters and checking in that NYM are still a play around 7pm
Gl Barryt

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 11:28 AM

Houston closed at -175 yesterday so anything below -175 (closing line) is a play.

**barryt** · 04-09-17, 11:43 AM

Adding Baltimore -114:+272

cheering for Justin Rose have $10 EW to collect $480

**juveitalia** · 04-09-17, 11:46 AM

[QUOTE=TechnicalTrader;26897595]Houston closed at -175 yesterday so anything below -175 (closing line) is a play.[/QUOTE

my site shows it closing at -196. Do we have a consensus site to look at closing lines? there just seems to be a big discrepancy. Really appreciate all the info and insight!

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 11:47 AM

[QUOTE=juveitalia;26897644]

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Houston closed at -175 yesterday so anything below -175 (closing line) is a play.[/QUOTE

my site shows it closing at -196. Do we have a consensus site to look at closing lines? there just seems to be a big discrepancy. Really appreciate all the info and insight!

I use Killersports, they use covers

**barryt** · 04-09-17, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Houston closed at -175 yesterday so anything below -175 (closing line) is a play.

Well here we go problem #1
at VI HOU closed at -200
this would be avg of LV casinos.
where does SQDL get its closing?

**jlani93** · 04-09-17, 11:50 AM

Confirming these (2) as plays that are starting soon.

As TT explained, we're risking 0.5% of current bankroll

❋BOS RED SOX -115
❋BAL ORIOLES -123

Still watching HOU/NYM/CWS...be back very shortly.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by jlani93

Confirming these (2) as plays that are starting soon.

As TT explained, we're risking 0.5% of current bankroll on each ML & RL:
(a total of 1% of current bankroll on each game)

❋BOS RED SOX -115
❋BAL ORIOLES -123

Still watching HOU/NYM/CWS...be back very shortly.

Actually, we are risking to win 0.5% per bet.

**jlani93** · 04-09-17, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Actually, we are risking to win 0.5% per bet.

Oh ok. Will edit that.

IS BOS still a play, at my sports book its now -102 (DET -108)?

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 12:01 PM

Still a play at killersports, that could change though.

**jlani93** · 04-09-17, 12:04 PM

Ok. That's what I thought but thought I'd ask to be sure.

**teecee** · 04-09-17, 12:52 PM

Hou is not a play yet for me. As stated, I am using Vegas Insider and the number there is the same as closing yesterday.

I will always try to get a better number live when the moneyline is that high. If I miss out, like I did yesterday with St. Louis, so be it. Just don't like the juice.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 01:13 PM

All plays are still green light for me. You guys can play any of them, we (jlani and myself) will just post ours.

**teecee** · 04-09-17, 01:15 PM

Rock on!

**Mayberry** · 04-09-17, 01:51 PM

I like this idea but its hard to tell what is a play in the posts.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-09-17, 01:58 PM

All 5 plays are good to bet on. Up next: NYM

in play: BOS/BAL/HOU/CWS

**Kenny King** · 04-09-17, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

All 5 plays are good to bet on. Up next: NYM

in play: BOS/BAL/HOU/CWS

What time did you actually send this post out? It didn't show up on the message board until well after 4 of the games had started.

**NLChad11** · 04-09-17, 08:34 PM

First thing...this is my first season on the MLB forum, been lurking on football and ncaa hoops forums for years and following a few different cappers. This thread is great, TT and jlani are giving us a gift, and there are a few other posters that give great insight and feedback regularly here also. I am very grateful to these people. Also, there is an amazingly good vibe in here, no trolls or haters or thread hijackers like other sports threads (college hoops the worst!). Questioning when plays were actually posted is ridiculous, go back and read previous threads and find out for yourself...you'll find post #80 when TT spells it out for you for the day. Play them or don't or fade, whatever. The OP here completely explains the system and then also gives the plays, what more do you need? It's Christmas everyday! Baseball season and quality handicapped picks! Geez! Don't want to clog anymore but had to come in here. Thanks again to all the contributors, especially jlani and TT! GL EVERYONE! LET'S WIN SOME CASH!

**hondax123** · 04-09-17, 10:42 PM

Thank you guys for posting and giving all the updates. Appreciate the passion and dedication. Well said Nlchad11

**Kenny King** · 04-09-17, 11:17 PM

Since Dudley Doo-rite wants to come on, flap his lips, and rip my question then maybe I need to explain the reasoning for my question.

Jlani93 posted definitively that Boston and Baltimore were plays and stated that she was still watching the other 3 and would be back shortly in post #89.

I happened to be in an area of poor internet on my phone. Finally it begins working again and the next post I see is #98 from Tech Trader at 1:58. In the past on this site people have had problems posting and the posts not showing up until some time well later, but you wouldn't know this since you are new, and yes I have been here far longer than my join date indicates. This problem was occurring with posts sent from phones. I asked the question simply to make sure that it wasn't happening again. At first glance, I thought that Tech Traders post was the conclusion of Jlanis post from her indicating that she would be back with the rest of the picks.

Unfortunately, I wasn't in any position at all internet wise to be tracking numbers today. Now, NLChad11 since you are apparently my keeper, that you have my explanation, am I free to leave.

I am officially laying this to rest. Back to the positive vibe. Thanks to all who are trying to make this work.

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-10-17, 12:35 AM

Thanks for the above four posts. I did in deed post tje picks late. Sorry

I'll think this over today and figure out what our best are options are regarding posting plays etc. This is not going to be easy because picks arent official until lines close.

We'll figure something out.

As for yesterday, the system went 5-5 with a loss of about 1-2% BR. I'll also get the numbers up later today.

**Kenny King** · 04-10-17, 01:43 AM

Do you think the system would be thrown off if you made plays official at a set time such as 15 minutes or 30 minutes before the games start?

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-10-17, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by Kenny King

Do you think the system would be thrown off if you made plays official at a set time such as 15 minutes or 30 minutes before the games start?

Tough to say, it all depends on what late money does. But then again, we will most likely win some and lose some by missing picks here an there.

I'm open to any type of feedback here and would like to make this as simple as possible. This is what I was thinking:

option 1)
-post unofficial picks either the day before or a few hours before gametime
-post "official picks" about 10 minutes before gametime
-reconfirm picks shortly after the first pitch

I think we would require additional help here. Possibly granting one or two more people access to the query. Those two or three designated members would simply double check the query and confirm when jlani can't. Again, in about two weeks I'm really not going to have the time to be in here 5,6 7 times a day.

option 2)
-post unofficial picks either the day before or a few hours before gametime
-publish the query and it would be everyone's own responsibility to track picks
-confirm picks after first pitches

This is obviously the easiest option but I fear two things: 1) although the query is relatively simple and anyone with basic SDQL knowledge would be able to replicate it, the idea of the public and books having access to the query is giving me an anxious feeling. 2) The thread could (and most likely would) get flooded with variants of the SDQL. I see this happen all the time in FX forums (see forexfactory) and it is happening right now, in an SBR competitors forum. This would be a huge distraction and an easy way for someone (with bad intentions) to hijack the thread.

option 3)
-post unofficial picks either the day before or a few hours before gametime
-post a "team query" where people can view lines themselves and decide
-post "official picks" about 10 minutes before gametime
-reconfirm picks shortly after the first pitch

This is sort of a hybrid of the first two. The "team query" would look like this:

season=2017 and team=Astros this a simple team query and will show you the next 10 games, along with the previous 90 games, opening day to date. By replacing "Astros" with "Red Sox", you will be able to access the Red Sox past 90 and next 10 games

The team names can simply be replaced and members would then be able to access each teams previous lines and assure that the current line is in line with the system.

I am in favor of option 3 but would need to talk to jlani about it, she would then lead the thread. I'd like to hear what everyone else has to say and would also like to ask if anyone else would like to volunteer and help.

Thanks and let's keep this vibe flowing!

Cheers,
TT

**TechnicalTrader** · 04-10-17, 06:39 AM

Side note:

Interesting facts:

Dating back to the beginning of 2014 Adam Wainwright is 4-1 in April coming off a losing start.

Dating back to the beginning of 2014 Tanner Roark is 0-4 in April coming off a winning start.

This has nothing to do with this system, just a heads to those out there who are capping the STL/WAS game. I'd say there is some pretty good value in STL as a dog here. Barring no major lineup changes, I expect that line to drop.