I think since you're dealing with a negative number, it has to be that way
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HA, no... I am not looking at it strictly from an odds perspective, more a numeric. -120 < -180. Therefore the fav needs to be become a bigger fav in order to play. I hope that's clear now.
Btw, fun fact: The Yankees have never loss three of Tanaka's starts in a row during the regular season. The Yankees April record with him on the mound is; 10-6 SU, 7-9 RL. The Yanks are SU -2.2 units with him on the mound this April, not once has he finished April in the minus SU.
I'm playing the Yankees straight up today...Comment -
How are the Mets not an RIOF4? I know they used more than 3 pitchers yesterday. Is that a factor in this decision to play them, or not play them?Comment -
Okay, think I gotcha now. Except you wrote it backwards in this explanatory post, right? You meant to say -120 > -180. Because if I understand you now, you meant that in my example above, yes it's correct to use "target < -133" because we want a larger price and thus a "lower" (larger negative) number. Right?Comment -
Same thing every year, different system, but same results, just cap the game or get value on line moves, no other secret or magic formula to win, otherwise you r just kidding yourselves.Comment -
caps. Pretty simple, we are looking for a favorite to become a greater favorite over three games and take them on the third game, if their opponent does the complete opposite.
Team A:
Line game 1) -110
Line game 2) -145
Line game 3) -180
Team B:
Line game 1) +130
Line game 2) +145
Line game 3) +185
We then play Team A (both SU and on the RL) to win against team B. Who their previous matchups were against is completely irrelevant.
Yeah, I also noticed the typo in the OP. Sorta pissed that nobody picked it up then. I can't edit it....
I'm ready to leave this thread and start a new one anyway. Too much confusion in here.Comment -
Ha, you didn't have to write it all out again -- I never said I didn't understand the system you're doing. I just had an issue with the "language" being counter-intuitive ("<" being equal to a larger favorite) and making me question whether I had it wrong.
I wouldn't even have posted my last post above except that when you replied you wrote the explanation backwards (I think), so I still couldn't be 100%. Lol!Comment -
Nothing magical about this. I am trying to get value from line movement, just not intraday movement. The fact that 99.99999% of gamblers or bettors do exactly what you posted above is the reason why 99% fail.
I'd say the "same thing every year" goes for the countless chase, martingale, JM or Tony Chow type systems out there.
You either have inside info on umps, lineups, situations, etc and beat the market with that or you understand how the market works and ride waves and find support and resistance.
You're kidding yourself to think that the secret formula is to cap games and find value in line movement.Comment -
Pirates are still +162 at killer, but it doesnt look like they fit the system anywhere else.Comment -
PIT at +162 is a green light, anything above +160 is fine. Cubs at -175 is also a green light. I have a feeling the KC game will also be official. Duffy at -133 probably won't stick.Comment -
TT what are your thoughts on WAS?Comment -
I'm only looking at killersports right now, don't really care what covers is posting:
Covers has PIT at +152, which would disqualify the play but if killersports has them at +162 (where they are now), the play will be official.
This is the only way we can play it. Well, at least until we find out where/when killersports get's their lines...
KC/LAA has qualified at covers, hoping killersports will confirm. But we still have plenty of time there.Last edited by SBR Ivy; 05-03-17, 03:10 PM.Comment -
CHC is also a RIOF4 play!
I'm playing ML and RL twiceComment -
at first pitch CUBS-175 ; pirates 162Comment -
Thank you TT
What SDQL system is that? If you dont mind me askingComment -
7pm killer Has Royals -133 and Angels +133. We know that most places have it -150 +140 or so.
This kinda brings into focus the whole integretary of previous years data upon which the system is based.
However in for a penny... I'll soldier on until end of month.
So I'm playing on KC .
Yankees are no play because of Cardinals odds not high enough
and Giants no play because their odds are not low enough.
gl
barrytComment -
Both plays actually disqualified as the Pirates line stuck at +160 and the Royals line also fell back to -133.
Going forward I am going to take these plays also in to consideration and play them. I've changed the query so that a favorites previous line does not have to be (numerically) smaller and vise versa for dogs in order to be a play.
I strongly suggest to only play half your standard unit for close calls like these, that is what I'll be doing moving forward.
Last night the system went 2-2. YTD it is about break even. Good times will come, the previous results are too good.
This is what we are looking at in the early market:
RIOF
TOR, yesterdays line was -138. we are sitting at -140 (this will be close)
CIN, yesterdays line was -120, at -140 now
COL, yesterrdays line +135, at +110 now (would need to convert in to a fav)
WAS, yesterdays lien was -190, at -155 now (doubtful)
LAD, yesterdays line was -250, currently at -170 (doubtful)
RIOF4
No current playsComment -
What I'm finding is that regardless of what the record of this system shows, it's impossible to work. You don't even know if a play is actually a play until after the games start. That makes no sense and it's impossible to make the right plays. Track the results for 10 years and you could be up a million units, but it doesn't matter because you can't make a bet on a system play before a game actually starts.Comment -
A couple of comments and BR update.
Changing the query won't change the basic problem, of not having access to the final odds before betting and we'll still be agonizing whether it will equal or better than the previous day. I think we should stick with the original system and use Killer odds ,even if they seem off.
Instead of 2-2, Wouldn't it be better to say , we went 1-1 on both ml and RL( 2-2 sounds like 4 games). Having said that, imo "the system " record should treat those games as no plays.
I'm sticking with it til the end of April, however ,I have to count all the plays I made, even those yesterday, as I am continually forced to anticipate that the closing lines would fall within the system parameters.
My Record from April 9 to date trying to follow the system and betting $10 ml and RL from BR of $250 is:
Ml 4-7 -$41.70 : RL 3-8 -$37.50 remaining BR $171
Onto today's games at 8:30 am EST
CIN : MILW Killer is -130 :+140 which is great but my two outs have it virtually pickem. ILL check back around noon as it's a DAY game.
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That is exactly true, but I, for one, thought we could anticipate plays by having access to same line as Killer 5 min to postime. The latter is proving hard to accomplish, but not giving up just yet,
Anothe solution, which is occurring to me as I type, is to play "in game". Then one knows the final line.
This may incur added juice and Killer to finalize the line right after first pitch. Just an idea right now.
appreciate the commentComment -
Yeah I agree the in game might be an option for some, I use a local and his site doesn't offer in game bets. Oh well...
It has been a rough start to the season for me, and a lot of cappers here as well. I put $50 each on ML and RL so it's pretty ugly right now...thankfully I wasn't going $100 lol. Let's turn it around everybody! GLComment -
Look, at the end of the day PITs and KCs listed lines on killersports did not qualify at first pitch. Period.
I asumed that killersports would update their PIT line because covers had it listed higher. They didnt but i still played it. We are talking about a few selected games which could go either way. A few will be winners a few wont. If the system is too complicated or demands too much attention from any of you, I suggest to not play it. The results I have seen over the last 4 seasons is enough for me to put in that extra work. People have the illusion that making money is easy and does not require extra effort. I'll continue to post picks and track but will no longer answer questions or ask for help regarding tweaks, etc. Hell, its getting to the point where Id rather just ditch this trade and focus on me.Comment -
As for todays plays. All of the links are provided in earlier posts. Feel free to track lines and play.Comment -
TOR and CIN both RIOF4 plays. But lines still need confirmation when lines closeComment -
Either follow or do not but stop complaining about someone giving you information free.Comment -
TT, one thing that you may consider regarding record keeping is, instead of saying you went 1-1 in the Cubs game yesterday with a win on the ML and a loss RL is to say you went 0-1 on a -1 line. Your are basically playing all of these plays at -1. It may be easier for some to decipher.
Are all RIOF4 plays automatically ROIF plays too? Thanks.Comment -
Ok, will do. All RIOF4 plays are also RIOF. I just add two more variables to the current query.Comment
