MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[Kenny King]

Ok TT, post #156 has me confused a bit. Does it mean that ROIF had 10 potential plays today and ROIF 4 has 5 potential plays? I'm sure this is a stupid question, but I want to make sure I'm understanding Unofficial Plays and Pending Plays.

[Mayberry]

Sooo many posts. There is like 20 posts for today.

I get this is free and its up to me to follow. But the casual follower isnt gonna read 3 novels by 5 people to find a play that is a play then isnt a play then is a play then 3 more systems followed by 9 questions then tweeks to two system then etc...

[TechnicalTrader]

I've added one more variable to the RIOF4 system in order to filter out a few more losses. I will not share this final filter with the public because it is a variable I use for a few other systems which run very well. I actually like the RIOF4 better than the system I originally posted and will be playing 1.5% BR for those picks, yes three times more than the normal system.

Here we go, these are today's unofficial picks:

unofficial plays for April 12th:

RIOF System:
WAS (early game)
DET (early game)
PHI
BOS

pending RIOF confirmation:
CLE
HOU
MIA
PIT
COL (early game)
KC

RIOF4 System:
PHI

pending RIOF4 confirmation:
CLE
HOU
MIA
PIT
All plays would be SU and on the RL. More to follow soon.

Right now, the only plays which are still looking good are:

RIOF:
WAS
PHI
BOS
RIOF4:
PHI

That WAS play is 99% official.

[HighFive]

Sooo many posts. There is like 20 posts for today.

I get this is free and its up to me to follow. But the casual follower isnt gonna read 3 novels by 5 people to find a play that is a play then isnt a play then is a play then 3 more systems followed by 9 questions then tweeks to two system then etc...

The solution to your problem would be to not follow this thread..

[barryt]

I understand that -200 is a lot of juice, but this system has a 65.6% hit rate and is 12-3 in 2017. I'm just saying...

Well at -200(1.5), you have to win 2/3, 66.7%, to break even

[barryt]

Sooo many posts. There is like 20 posts for today.

I get this is free and its up to me to follow. But the casual follower isnt gonna read 3 novels by 5 people to find a play that is a play then isnt a play then is a play then 3 more systems followed by 9 questions then tweeks to two system then etc...

This ain't Mayberry! This is the fast lane! Lmao!

[ognj3n]

If the Diamondbacks remain a Favorite it's a play, they are trending in the right way though, -111 atm at covers

[TechnicalTrader]

If the Diamondbacks remain a Favorite it's a play, they are trending in the right way though, -111 atm at covers

did you get my PM?

[TechnicalTrader]

WAS is official. Not much is going to move that line... I hope

BOSis still tight but is looking good. PHI is also looking good. ARZ, bouncing around, plenty of time left until first pitch

[barryt]

WASH definitely a play butodds -200 are too low for me . But RL at 110 is above my +108 threshold

Actually got -180 at pinny and +126 RL
i also bet PHA -120 and 2.75

[Scrivero]

Yes, and that is something I am working on. Pinnacle has an API service...

Sounds good man. That would save loads of time (and of course allow also me to make the right plays).

[thekoreanmang]

Interestingly, one book has ARI +1.5 (-220) and another book has ARI -1.5 (+148). How'd you guys play it or are you all still waiting?

Good pickup, I missed that!

Yes, ARZ would need to become a favin order for the play to be official. Right now it's a pick em. But if that ARZ line moves a little bit more, we have a play!

[TechnicalTrader]

Interestingly, one book has ARI +1.5 (-220) and another book has ARI -1.5 (+148). How'd you guys play it or are you all still waiting?

Still waiting. Gonna be tough one to call!

[Scrivero]

Detroit closing line was -140 according to Covers. They won ML and RL. I know it was supposed to be at least -141 to qualify but I wonder if there is some room for error somewhere in there. SDQL lists it as -135. Well, many of us played it still and we all cashed for sure.

[TechnicalTrader]

With these types of rare cases ( the DET game), the system is 90-61 SU and 67-83 on the RL, winning 9.49 on the ML and 10.99 on the RL dating back to 2013. There were a few down years though; 2013 saw -8.85 units on the RL and 2014 -6.65 units.

I say we play these (as long as they close as favorites) in the future, just not track them. Over the 1500+ pays, these exceptions really wont hurt our RoI.

That ARZ pick is still concerning!

[TechnicalTrader]

OK, I'm off to bed. It's 11PM over here, if I wake up in the middle of the night, I'll post the other picks.

PHI and BOS both still looking good

[Enkhbat]

OMG WAS, BOS gets crushed, PHI losing, what are we doing wrong?

[teecee]

It's a long season. Don't bet a high % of your roll. 1, maybe 2% tops.

[barryt]

I'd like to make a couple of points.

A. The query results are based on the Killer sports closing "line". Hence if one is tracking how the system does ,then that is the line one has to use to determine whether it is/was a bet or not. That's very straight forward. If you want to bet something close, that is in the spirit of the query, but marginally failing, go ahead, but let's not call it a play.Tigers today, April 12, is an example of that.Another example is Diamondbacks , whilst they meet the criteria on descending odds, they may not be the favourite. As such they wouldn't exactly fit the system, but I for one played it while still at pick and played the RL -1.5 as if it were the Fav, but wouldn't include it unless it indeed became the favourite as specified at Killer.

B. What is really frustrating is not knowing where Killer gets its odds.Ognj3n gave me a link to a covers page which displayed the various odds at which a covers contest participants bet. Neither this nor the covers "box" consistently lined up with the Killer "line".If we knew where Killer was getting the closing "line", we could more easily forecast whether the closing "line" is likely to meet the criteria.(Did everyone realize that Killer uses a 10 cent line. Eg ARZ -105; SF -105, so -106 is the Fav.)

So in summary, one has to bet on the available line before knowing whether the final odds will meet the criteria. This becomes quite painful in marginal cases. However, whether the odds meet or don't meet the criteria will not affect the result of the game, just whether the game meets the system requirements. I'm not going to sweat it, one can't hang around minute by minute to see if the odds are met so I'm going to make decisions at noonish for DAY games and 7p ish for NIGHT games based on the lines available at that time and let the chips fall where they may and report on what I did. If one can't produce a profit in this manner, because I bet a non qualifier or didn't bet a qualifier, then it's just too hard to follow: despite its excellent promise.
Gl
Barryt
And tx again to TT for sharing his system.

[AceofSP2107]

Did anyone ever here of really good site could be useful

[teecee]

Did anyone ever here of really good site could be useful

Yes. I find it more useful than for odds. Just my opinion.

[Slanina]

Killer may get their odds same way Covers does but with different books as their consensus.

I hope Ogn does have a simple tracking query. The posts and plays are all over the place. I try not to post to keep the sifting smaller. Growing pains is all. Keep up the good work all. We'll get there soon enough.

[TechnicalTrader]

Rough day yesterday but this system generates well over 300 plays a year so this down day will not have a major affect on the anual performance. it will happen, just like hot streaks of 10+ winners in a row. Stay tuned for more!

Ogn and I are in contact and we will have a solution shortly. As of now we are looking at the following plays:

RIOF
BOS (looking good), current line -145, target <-130
CIN (looking good), current line -113, target <+145
LAA (doubtful), current line +110, target <-135
TOR (doubtful), current line -113, target <-210

RIOF4
no current signals

I will leave it at that and update later. I am hoping to get the following finished soon:

1) Finalize a query which will serve as a monitoring tool. Whoever is overseeing the query on game day will be able to refresh the query and view the distance needed from the current line to the targeted line. For example The Angels current line is +110, it would need to move $0.46 for it to qualify. Whoever is overseeing the lines that day will be able to post what I just posted above and include the line distance needed for it to qualify. The post would be simple and clear, like this:

(example)
RIOF
PHI, -125 - $0.16 needed. Target= -141

2) A sign one more person to overseeing duties. Jlani and myself will be able to manage things going forward, but I'd still like to have someone who I can trust and someone responsible


Cheers,
TT

[TechnicalTrader]

I'd like to make a couple of points.

A. The query results are based on the Killer sports closing "line". Hence if one is tracking how the system does ,then that is the line one has to use to determine whether it is/was a bet or not. That's very straight forward. If you want to bet something close, that is in the spirit of the query, but marginally failing, go ahead, but let's not call it a play.Tigers today, April 12, is an example of that.Another example is Diamondbacks , whilst they meet the criteria on descending odds, they may not be the favourite. As such they wouldn't exactly fit the system, but I for one played it while still at pick and played the RL -1.5 as if it were the Fav, but wouldn't include it unless it indeed became the favourite as specified at Killer.

B. What is really frustrating is not knowing where Killer gets its odds.Ognj3n gave me a link to a covers page which displayed the various odds at which a covers contest participants bet. Neither this nor the covers "box" consistently lined up with the Killer "line".If we knew where Killer was getting the closing "line", we could more easily forecast whether the closing "line" is likely to meet the criteria.(Did everyone realize that Killer uses a 10 cent line. Eg ARZ -105; SF -105, so -106 is the Fav.)

So in summary, one has to bet on the available line before knowing whether the final odds will meet the criteria. This becomes quite painful in marginal cases. However, whether the odds meet or don't meet the criteria will not affect the result of the game, just whether the game meets the system requirements. I'm not going to sweat it, one can't hang around minute by minute to see if the odds are met so I'm going to make decisions at noonish for DAY games and 7p ish for NIGHT games based on the lines available at that time and let the chips fall where they may and report on what I did. If one can't produce a profit in this manner, because I bet a non qualifier or didn't bet a qualifier, then it's just too hard to follow: despite its excellent promise.
Gl
Barryt
And tx again to TT for sharing his system.

Thanks Barry, This is something I've been looking in to also over the last 12-16 hours. I will most likely tweak the query so that boardeline plays also fall in line. By doing so, the overall performance might take a hit, nut we will be able to comfortably post and track picks. In other words we could change the variables to current odds "equal or lower" to previous game odds and rather than the current team being a favorite, just filter out any team with a closing line under +105. I need to do the research but we are very, very close to finding a solution! More to come soon! We have plenty of baseball to play!

[TechnicalTrader]

That CIN play will most likely not be official because the Brewers line would need to move from +109 to +201. I doubt that is going to happen. It's all leading up to a single play today.

[teecee]

Sooo, RIOF4 is now RIOF2? Was the name changed bc you made a tweak, that we may not discuss, to the system?

[TechnicalTrader]

Sooo, RIOF4 is now RIOF2? Was the name changed bc you made a tweak, that we may not discuss, to the system?

My bad, typo. Corrected. Thanks

[TechnicalTrader]

BOS has also qualified for RIOF4. Covers just updated the boxsxores a few hours ago but as you can see, PIT did use more than 3 pitchers yesterday.

Now their lines need to stay where they are at

[barryt]

BOSTON IS A DAY game starts at 2:05p
i was very confident they would be a play and I played them Earlier at -150; 125
seems odds have decreased( line increased) to -163 at noon.
Bet now before it gets worse!
gl
barryt
PS Killer still has line at -150 confirming that it's line isn't live!
As a footnote adding ARZ didn't qualify yesterday as it was the dog

[TechnicalTrader]

BOSTON IS A DAY game starts at 2:05p
i was very confident they would be a play and I played them Earlier at -150; 125
seems odds have decreased( line increased) to -163 at noon.
Bet now before it gets worse!
gl
barryt
PS Killer still has line at -150 confirming that it's line isn't live!

Good stuff, I also jumped on them earlier today.

Btw, I saw you post in the googlegroup page. I was actually going to post there this weekend! Thanks

[Scrivero]

Ok, the unofficial picks have officially gone to minus, so I will stop playing them. Will just play the officials whenever I can. I asked Pinnacle about scheduling bets with certain criteria but they just offered me an "alerts"-option.

Google groups sounds interesting. I would love to be able read some of that stuff.

[TechnicalTrader]

Another split yesterday.

Record:
SU; 13-6 +4.6 unitsRL; 8-11, +0.3 units


ROIF:
KC, current line -150, target <-133
CHC, current line -170, target <-130 but PIT's line needs to drop to sub 160 (where it currently stands)
SFG (close one here), current line -155, target <-165
NYY (also close), current line -130, target <-140

RIOF4:
no current signals

[barryt]

Btw, I saw you post in the googlegroup page. I was actually going to post there this weekend! Thanks

Not holding my breathe til I get a response

[barryt]

CUBS are a DAY game 2pm and are at -165 to -170 at most books. Certain to be a play. Bet now as line is likely to be worse later!

KC -130 someplaces needs to gat to -135 likewise GIANTS -140 need -165
However NYY are -155 with target of <-140 But STL needs to get to 170 and it's only 135. Very doubtful!
MY take
CUBS are a play
KC maybe a play ,I'll wait til about 7p to decide.
NYY and SF are very doubtful but I'll confirm at 7 pm
gl
barryt

[Capybara]

Another split yesterday.

Record:
SU; 13-6 +4.6 unitsRL; 8-11, +0.3 units


ROIF:
KC, current line -150, target <-133
CHC, current line -170, target <-130 but PIT's line needs to drop to sub 160 (where it currently stands)
SFG (close one here), current line -155, target <-165
NYY (also close), current line -130, target <-140

RIOF4:
no current signals

As always, I'm confused. Why are you listing the favorites, who as I understand it need to exceed a certain bet price to qualify as increasing in price for three consecutive games, as having a target "<" (<-- which means LESS THAN) a certain number? Shouldn't it be, for example, "current line -150, target >-133, so Yes this is a bet?

Is this a misuse of "<" or am I viciously misunderstanding the system??

Thanks.