***** Totals and Sides *****

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Thursday:

Mia/Reds over 7.5
Wash/Atl over 9
Mets/SF over 6
Sea/LAA over 8

Back later with any Regular Plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Passing on the afternoon card

Back later

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good evening,

The Regular Plays for Thursday:

AZ/SD over 8.5 -110

Good luck

[hit_me90]

thank you mucho sir

[TechnicalTrader]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Thursday:

Mia/Reds over 7.5
Wash/Atl over 9
Mets/SF over 6
Sea/LAA over 8

Back later with any Regular Plays

Good luck

Killed it, absolutely killed it again!!!!! Great job!

[doubledime]

thank you mucho sir

Thanks Hit and thanks for the points.

[doubledime]

Killed it, absolutely killed it again!!!!! Great job!

Thanks TT You had a nice day yourself

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday

Regular Plays: 1-0
YTD: 108-70 +28.75 units

Reliever Plays: 4-0
YTD 306-221

Back later with today's card

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Friday:

LAD/Reds over 9
Mets/SF over 7.5
AZ/SD over 7.5

Back later with any Regular Plays

Good luck

[TechnicalTrader]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Friday:

LAD/Reds over 9
Mets/SF over 7
AZ/SD over 7.5

Back later with any Regular Plays

Good luck

Thanks my man, will be trailing. hell I'm putting up 3% per bet! Got a lot of trust in you buddy!

Let's make some money today!

[juicername]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Friday:

LAD/Reds over 9
Mets/SF over 7
AZ/SD over 7.5

Back later with any Regular Plays

Good luck

I guess the line won't be 7 with Lugo instead of Matz for Mets?

And absolutely love the AZ/SD over. 7.5 looks extremely low both considering the pitching mathup and bullpens.

[doubledime]

Thanks my man, will be trailing. hell I'm putting up 3% per bet! Got a lot of trust in you buddy!

Let's make some money today!

Thanks TT, but remember the Reliever Plays are ONLY based on Reliever information, nothing else. I have to keep reminding myself, since sometimes when I post a Reliever Play, I know other factors will be against it, yet they continue to win at a good %

[doubledime]

I guess the line won't be 7 with Lugo instead of Matz for Mets?

And absolutely love the AZ/SD over. 7.5 looks extremely low both considering the pitching mathup and bullpens.

Yes, it will be different, but remember the Reliever Plays have nothing to do with any other metric, weather, ballpark, starters, line etc. I will change the line in my original post. thanks

[hit_me90]

DD its a slow day for me so if you have time, pls answer. Do you cap football the same way as baseball all totals with a few sides

[doubledime]

DD its a slow day for me so if you have time, pls answer. Do you cap football the same way as baseball all totals with a few sides

I do handicap football totals but differently. I am not a big fan (handicapping wise) of football. Since the odds makers have a week to massage the lines, most line are very close to where they should be. On the other hand, college basketball has several games every night, and there is where we have a better chance to exploit any weak line.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yes, it will be different, but remember the Reliever Plays have nothing to do with any other metric, weather, ballpark, starters, line etc. I will change the line in my original post. thanks

I think there are good reasons for this. Starters may try to conserve energy to go longer when the pen is stressed. Managers might leave them in for a bit longer. Hitters may be more focused. Etc. Ultimatey, results are all that matters, and the reliever plays are full of good results.

[doubledime]

I think there are good reasons for this. Starters may try to conserve energy to go longer when the pen is stressed. Managers might leave them in for a bit longer. Hitters may be more focused. Etc. Ultimatey, results are all that matters, and the reliever plays are full of good results.

Very good points. I never even thought of that. Plus I have always said that the starters are "baked" into to line. The other night Mets/SF the total was 6 due to the starters, and it was an over Reliever Play, and it went way over.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I do handicap football totals but differently. I am not a big fan (handicapping wise) of football. Since the odds makers have a week to massage the lines, most line are very close to where they should be. On the other hand, college basketball has several games every night, and there is where we have a better chance to exploit any weak line.

I assume you're talking about NFL totals? College football totals can be soft sometimes, but I only spot play anything in the NFL. Market is way too tough IMO.

Not to derail, but I haven't found a good replacement for college basketball ref data. If you have one, please let me know.

[doubledime]

I assume you're talking about NFL totals? College football totals can be soft sometimes, but I only spot play anything in the NFL. Market is way too tough IMO.

Not to derail, but I haven't found a good replacement for college basketball ref data. If you have one, please let me know.

IMO in college hoops, since there is a crew of refs, they are not as important as one home plate umpire. In hockey, on the other hand, the refs can make a difference in the total based on penalties. If they call more penalties there will be more power plays. Last year I had pretty good luck with totals in the regular season, but not in the play offs.

[HeeluvaGuy]

IMO in college hoops, since there is a crew of refs, they are not as important as one home plate umpire. In hockey, on the other hand, the refs can make a difference in the total based on penalties. If they call more penalties there will be more power plays. Last year I had pretty good luck with totals in the regular season, but not in the play offs.

I agree to the extent that I don't think CBB refs form the sole basis for a play, but it can be helpful. For example, the over numbers in the Pac 12 last season (and the other conferences those refs work - MWC, Big West, WCC, and WAC) were disproportionately high last season from my recollection. I'll try to find the numbers, but I played a lot of overs in those conferences last year using that trend.

[doubledime]

I agree to the extent that I don't think CBB refs form the sole basis for a play, but it can be helpful. For example, the over numbers in the Pac 12 last season (and the other conferences those refs work - MWC, Big West, WCC, and WAC) were disproportionately high last season from my recollection. I'll try to find the numbers, but I played a lot of overs in those conferences last year using that trend.

Good to know and would interested in learning more.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm on a phone, so this isn't going to be neat, but here are the numbers (O-U in 2015-2016 CBB):

PAC 12: 212-169 (54.2%)
MWC: 184-146 (55.7%)
WCC: 152-141 (51.9%)
WAC: 15-46 (36.6%)

Total: 563-482 (53.8%)

I stumbled on this early in the season reading some articles about rule changes, etc. There was a lot of discussion about strictly enforcing the new rules, which led to a lot of foul calls. These conferences share a group of officials, and with the exception of the WAC (which doesn't typically have lines) the trend was pretty clear.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm on a phone, so this isn't going to be neat, but here are the numbers (O-U in 2015-2016 CBB):

PAC 12: 212-169 (54.2%)
MWC: 184-146 (55.7%)
WCC: 152-141 (51.9%)
WAC: 15-46 (36.6%)

Total: 563-482 (53.8%)

I stumbled on this early in the season reading some articles about rule changes, etc. There was a lot of discussion about strictly enforcing the new rules, which led to a lot of foul calls. These conferences share a group of officials, and with the exception of the WAC (which doesn't typically have lines) the trend was pretty clear.

Ignore this. I need to filter for conference games.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Alright. Here are the numbers for conference games (O-U for 2015-16 men's college basketball):

PAC 12: 134-102 (56.8%)
MWC: 126-92 (57.8%)
WCC: 108-84 (56.25%)
WAC: 6-6 (50%)

Total: 374-284 (56.8%)

So if you had just blind bet the over in these conferences all season, you would have destroyed just about every handicapper out there.

[doubledime]

Alright. Here are the numbers for conference games (O-U for 2015-16 men's college basketball):

PAC 12: 134-102 (56.8%)
MWC: 126-92 (57.8%)
WCC: 108-84 (56.25%)
WAC: 6-6 (50%)

Total: 374-284 (56.8%)

So if you had just blind bet the over in these conferences all season, you would have destroyed just about every handicapper out there.

Good stuff. Now the question is, will the books adjust this year?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good stuff. Now the question is, will the books adjust this year?

Right. I was just using that as an example of the impact refs can have on college basketball. One happy consequence of me posting the season and conference total results is that you can clearly see that overs hit more often in conference than out of conference. From watching games I believe a lot of that had to do with officiating.

[TechnicalTrader]

DD, any regular picks today??

[iKushtyy]

Quick Q, have you ever considered expanding the theory to TT's?

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

No Regular Picks today

Adding a Reliever Play that I missed earlier

Wash/Atl over 7.5

Good luck

[doubledime]

DD, any regular picks today??

Just posted. I know it's getting late by you

[TechnicalTrader]

Just posted. I know it's getting late by you

Thanks, I'll be staying up for the second inning's of the first games. Can't wait to see how the new system works.

[doubledime]

Quick Q, have you ever considered expanding the theory to TT's?

Yes, but I just have quite a bit on my plate right now. I may start looking at it however. It may expand the amount of plays because when I release a Reliever Play BOTH teams relief staffs, must qualify Many times only one team has an overworked or underworked relief staff thus I pass. In that scenario we could take a position on the other team.

[iKushtyy]

Yep that's my thoughts on it.. Obvi don't go mad with it, maybe tighten up any restrictions you have compared to total runs until you work out kinks, but I could see it being a profitable angle if there's just one poor starter with a taxed BP vs a hot-hitting team or just a generally good offence. Be even better if said team has a poor defence aswell. Hitters ballpark, ump, etc etc. I have kinda been doing this already in a half-arsed way, but I tell ya what, when you put up your relief plays, I'll look over and see if there's value in one TT or the other. Tonight I already have SF TT and Cin TT.

[HeeluvaGuy]

DD - I found a Twitter follow that might help getting ump info for the first games of these series: @UmpCrew. I'm not positive when the info is posted, but I just set alerts to on to test it out for today's games. I'll let you know how it goes.

[HeeluvaGuy]

He's starting to post the crews for tonight's games. HP umps so far (only for first games of series):

TEX/TAM: Whitson
TOR/CLE: Estabrook

Pretty good resource.