* Totals and Sides *

doubledime · 08-12-16, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by blackHIPPY

sea/oak still a play w pitching change?

This was never a "Regular Play", it is a Reliever Play (See post #144). Reliever Plays are based solely on the condition of the relief staff and has nothing to do with any other metric of the teams. Therefore, a pitching change does not affect the Reliever Plays.

doubledime · 08-12-16, 03:16 PM

Good evening,

Friday's Regular Plays:

SD/Mets over 9 -110
Reds/Mil over 9 -105
LAA/Clev over 8 -120

Good luck

Mike Huntertz · 08-12-16, 08:03 PM

One in
One tied
One...needs help.

HeeluvaGuy · 08-12-16, 08:46 PM

I tailed the Cleveland play when it got down to -108. Very pleased. Nice work as always.

doubledime · 08-12-16, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I tailed the Cleveland play when it got down to -108. Very pleased. Nice work as always.

-108 was a very good price

SauceWagers · 08-13-16, 12:04 AM

hell of a day DD. reliever plays went 6-1

thekoreanmang · 08-13-16, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by SauceWagers

hell of a day DD. reliever plays went 6-1

The only time Trump's face is agreeable.

doubledime · 08-13-16, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by SauceWagers

hell of a day DD. reliever plays went 6-1

Mike Huntertz · 08-13-16, 07:02 AM

Brilliant.
Tonight we were the hammer!

doubledime · 08-13-16, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Brilliant.
Tonight we were the hammer!

Thank you

doubledime · 08-13-16, 07:48 AM

Good morning,

Yesterday

Regular Plays: 3-0
YTD: 100-67 +24.50 units

Reliever Plays: 6-1
YTD 281-211

Back later with today's card

doubledime · 08-13-16, 07:58 AM

Good morning,

Before I post the Reliever Plays I want to mention, for the new people to this thread, that the Reliever Plays ONLY consider the relief staff's rest, or lack of it, that they have had over the last 1 to 3 days. NOTHING ELSE! The wind could be blowing in at 50 MPH but I might post that game as an over Reliever Play, if it qualifies as such. Having said that, they are still winning at a 57% rate with an average line of about -114. See Post #144 for a more detailed explanation.

The Reliever Plays for Saturday:

Cards/Cubs over (no line yet)
Col/Philly over 7.5
SD/Mets over 7
TB/NYY over 8
KC/Min over 9
LAA/Cle over 9
WS/Mia over 8.5
AZ/Bost over 10

Good luck

jrjay93 · 08-13-16, 08:24 AM

DD awesome job yesterday I was 1 away from taking home my biggest day on a parlay. Glad I had a few singles to make yestday profitable. To you sir

let's do it again

doubledime · 08-13-16, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by jrjay93

DD awesome job yesterday I was 1 away from taking home my biggest day on a parlay. Glad I had a few singles to make yestday profitable. To you sir

let's do it again

Thanks JR

doubledime · 08-13-16, 08:40 AM

Good morning,

No early Regular Plays however there are 2 Regular Plays tonight that I am posting now since they, IMO, are going up. Both opened at at -110 so you may have to buy the 1/2 to get the number.

LAA/Clev over 9 -125
AZ/Bost over 10 -130

May have more later

Good luck

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

Good morning,

Before I post the Reliever Plays I want to mention, for the new people to this thread, that the Reliever Plays ONLY consider the relief staff's rest, or lack of it, that they have had over the last 1 to 3 days. NOTHING ELSE! The wind could be blowing in at 50 MPH but I might post that game as an over Reliever Play, if it qualifies as such. Having said that, they are still winning at a 57% rate with an average line of about -114. See Post #144 for a more detailed explanation.

The Reliever Plays for Saturday:

Cards/Cubs over (no line yet)
Col/Philly over 7.5
SD/Mets over 7
TB/NYY over 8
KC/Min over 9
LAA/Cle over 9
WS/Mia over 8.5
AZ/Bost over 10

Good luck

DD, again thanks for posting your picks and insight. Have you ever thought of betting only the second half on the reliever plays? I'll take a look at what they would've done over the last few weeks or so. That could get your hit rate up even higher. Anyway, keep up the awesome work!

doubledime · 08-13-16, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

DD, again thanks for posting your picks and insight. Have you ever thought of betting only the second half on the reliever plays? I'll take a look at what they would've done over the last few weeks or so. That could get your hit rate up even higher. Anyway, keep up the awesome work!

TT Others have said the same thing. I think it would be great if you could back test that idea and give us the results. Thanks

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 09:46 AM

Will do. The site I use to backtest (oddsportal) doesn't list second half odds.

Any idea where I could fetch that data? I'll bang out August's bets in about an hour.... Just need a site.

Capybara · 08-13-16, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

TT Others have said the same thing. I think it would be great if you could back test that idea and give us the results. Thanks

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Will do. The site I use to backtest (oddsportal) doesn't list second half odds.

Any idea where I could fetch that data? I'll bang out August's bets in about an hour.... Just need a site.

It warms my heart to see you two number-crunchers working together. Teamwork!

Great job yesterday to you both, and good luck today!

doubledime · 08-13-16, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Will do. The site I use to backtest (oddsportal) doesn't list second half odds.

Any idea where I could fetch that data? I'll bang out August's bets in about an hour.... Just need a site.

I don't know of a site, but maybe someone who plays a lot of second halves can give us some insight into what an average number would be.

Worst case, start tracking today and see what it looks like after a week or two.

doubledime · 08-13-16, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

It warms my heart to see you two number-crunchers working together. Teamwork!

Great job yesterday to you both, and good luck today!

Thanks Capy

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

It warms my heart to see you two number-crunchers working together. Teamwork!

Great job yesterday to you both, and good luck today!

Thanks Cap. Just mentioning me in the same sentence with a vet like DD makes my day. Now let's make some money!

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

I don't know of a site, but maybe someone who plays a lot of second halves can give us some insight into what an average number would be.

Worst case, start tracking today and see what it looks like after a week or two.

Will do, I'll try to quote your picks with live odds. My only issue is I am based overseas and when you post after 7PM EST I usually miss it...

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

I don't know of a site, but maybe someone who plays a lot of second halves can give us some insight into what an average number would be.

Worst case, start tracking today and see what it looks like after a week or two.

Man, I can't even find second half o/u odds. been all over the place.

Can somebody please help me? Does a book even offer the second half o/u???

HeeluvaGuy · 08-13-16, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Man, I can't even find second half o/u odds. been all over the place.

Can somebody please help me? Does a book even offer the second half o/u???

I'm not familiar with them for baseball. I have had some success waiting for some of DD's reliever plays to go a few scoreless innings and then betting them live based on starter pitch count, etc. But live betting doesn't really lend itself to backtesting or even posting in forums.

Best of luck today, all!

Mike Huntertz · 08-13-16, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Man, I can't even find second half o/u odds. been all over the place.

Can somebody please help me? Does a book even offer the second half o/u???

Only 1st half totals that I have seen.
I've played live in game with good success(using DD's reliever stats) but was watching the game.
Tough to watch them all.

Capybara · 08-13-16, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Man, I can't even find second half o/u odds. been all over the place.

Can somebody please help me? Does a book even offer the second half o/u???

I'm sure I've seen 2H plays, so they must be at either 5Dimes or Bookmaker or both. I assume I saw both sides and totals, but can't recall for sure. Not home now so harder for me to research for you.

doubledime · 08-13-16, 12:47 PM

This won't be the most accurate way, but since past second half lines appear not to be available, just going back and looking at how many runs were scored in the second half of the game, will give at least, an indication if there is any value in playing the second half totals.

doubledime · 08-13-16, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Will do, I'll try to quote your picks with live odds. My only issue is I am based overseas and when you post after 7PM EST I usually miss it...

My Reliever Plays are usually posted by 7:30 AM CST. Does that work for you?

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 01:55 PM

12 is the live total on the TB/NYY game, with the score 3:6

Oh, and congrats on your first win on the day!

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

My Reliever Plays are usually posted by 7:30 AM CST. Does that work for you?

Yes, but tracking them live will be difficult. I missed the Blue Jays game. I'll try to update all live totals at the end of the fifth of each game.

I have the feeling it is going to be around 3 -3.5.

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 03:10 PM

I'll update Saturday's reliever plays here:

The Reliever Plays for Saturday:

Cards/Cubs over (no line yet); Total was 5 at the end of the 5th (score was 0:2) Winner
Col/Philly over 7.5
SD/Mets over 7
TB/NYY over 8; Total was 12 at the end of the 5th (score was 3:6) Draw
KC/Min over 9
LAA/Cle over 9
WS/Mia over 8.5
AZ/Bost over 10

doubledime · 08-13-16, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

I'll update Saturday's reliever plays here:

The Reliever Plays for Saturday:

Cards/Cubs over (no line yet); Total was 5 at the end of the 5th (score was 0:2)
Col/Philly over 7.5
SD/Mets over 7
TB/NYY over 8; Total was 12 at the end of the 5th (score was 3:6)
KC/Min over 9
LAA/Cle over 9
WS/Mia over 8.5
AZ/Bost over 10

I see right now, this is not going to be easy to do, but it will be interesting to see if there is money to be made with this angle.

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

I see right now, this is not going to be easy to do, but it will be interesting to see if there is money to be made with this angle.

If we observe that the Totals difference to runs which were scored before the 6th sticks around 3 - 3.5, we'll have something to work with. if it bounces all over the place, it will be impossible to backtest it.

I wonder what in-game totals looked like during Yankees games where they had DMC locking down the 7th through 9th...

doubledime · 08-13-16, 04:06 PM

Good afternoon,

No more Regular Plays today other than the ones we gave out this morning

Good luck

***** Totals and Sides *****

* Totals and Sides *