New Baseball Power Rating System

[EXhoosier10]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
8/13
S/A System
ARZ (No Play >-119) (-105) L
FLA (No Play >-163) (-130) L
Mets (No Play <+107) I really like the Mets today, but Philly on win streak
Braves (No Play >-175) (-170) W
Balty (No Play <+191) (+185) No Play
Tex (No Play >-175) (-130) W
STL (No Play >-175) (-220) No Play
CWS (No PLay >-136) (-145) No Play
NYY (No Play >-175) (-180) No Play
Oak (No Play <+161) (+140) NO Play
--Arizona wasn't a play. Projected at -106, actual -105. Not sure where you got -119 from
--Baltimore was a play. You dont' compare baltimore's line at all. You compare the 25 cents to the game favorite. So TB was projected -166. actual of -205. That's 39 cents in the wrong direction, play on Baltimore. Baltimore won
--The rest looks good

[Formulawiz]

8/13 (2-2) -0.35Units

Houlihan, why was BAL a no play. Most of the Casinos had TB well over -200. This was a big +185 win
Just curious

[Formulawiz]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
8/13
S/A System
ARZ (No Play >-119) (-105) L
FLA (No Play >-163) (-130) L
Mets (No Play <+107) I really like the Mets today, but Philly on win streak
Braves (No Play >-175) (-170) W
Balty (No Play <+191) (+185) No Play
Tex (No Play >-175) (-130) W
STL (No Play >-175) (-220) No Play
CWS (No PLay >-136) (-145) No Play
NYY (No Play >-175) (-180) No Play
Oak (No Play <+161) (+140) NO Play
--Arizona wasn't a play. Projected at -106, actual -105. Not sure where you got -119 from
--Baltimore was a play. You dont' compare baltimore's line at all. You compare the 25 cents to the game favorite. So TB was projected -166. actual of -205. That's 39 cents in the wrong direction, play on Baltimore. Baltimore won
--The rest looks good

Exhoosier, I agree with you 100%. As a matter of fact that was my big game yesterday. When you compared each pitchers power rating Shields was not much more overwhelming then Guthrie. In addition BAL is on a nice win run of 7-3 and today 8-2, while TB is playing like crap at 4-6 and today 3-7.
As far as ARI that was not even close to being a play.

[HoulihansTX]

Im doing it differently than you guys. But I will change, so we can all be on the same page.

I was comparing the Dogs line, when the favorite was obviously not a play.

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/14/2010
MIN 1.4
NYY 1.1
TOR 1.1
CLE 1.0
Comp CIN if > -135


Team Projected Runs for 8/13/2010
MIN 1.5 WIN
NYY 1.1 LOSS
TOR 1.1 N/P WIN
CLE 1.0 LOSS
BOS 1.0 LOSS
No Plays if > -175
Try to play dogs only.

COMP, since A.S. break,16-5
TPR, since A.S. break, 38-31

[ShivaBowl]

Exhoosier, I agree with you 100%. As a matter of fact that was my big game yesterday. When you compared each pitchers power rating Shields was not much more overwhelming then Guthrie. In addition BAL is on a nice win run of 7-3 and today 8-2, while TB is playing like crap at 4-6 and today 3-7.

Maybe; if you weren't wasting all of are time, with the bull shit in this thread, you could have shared that BAL play with the rest of us.
TX; good luck with TOR, I was on them yesterday and the Mets.

[Formulawiz]

Im doing it differently than you guys. But I will change, so we can all be on the same page.

I was comparing the Dogs line, when the favorite was obviously not a play.

Houlihan, you cannot look at the dog ML. If your doing this some of your plays may be incorrect. You always have to look at the Favorite to make your plays.
Thanks

[Formulawiz]

Maybe; if you weren't wasting all of are time, with the bull shit in this thread, you could have shared that BAL play with the rest of us.
TX; good luck with TOR, I was on them yesterday and the Mets.

Shivbowl, I am not giving out those plays. I am more concerned with the ML plays. But keep up the good work.

[SolidDala]

You start a thread to evaluate the systems from sport trends what I can see right, and thats a good thing, people can discuss flaws and errors, what good whats not and by end of season have a good feel on what works and what should be avoided. Lastly how much units (money) does the system make in the season. Isn't this the purpose of the thread?

you say to bet smaller on prohibited favs then small ones otherwise go bowl; I interpret that as betting less to win on -170 fav then -120 fav? If this is right, then I guess you think I should bowl all day, because imo a -170 fav wins far greater then -120 witch and should therefor be risked more on..

you think comments like mine is getting in the way of making money, but you never talk about units just % witch means NADA! Why is it when someone like Bobby actually SHOWS what the systems makes MONEY WISE (witch is what people is interesting in) you think he is an idiot, and responds that 'people' don't like it with mails to you?

In EVERY other threads here, when people disagree with someone 'bashing' as you feel Bobby is doing they step up and let him know IN THE THREAD, but not in this one...

[HoulihansTX]

Houlihan, you cannot look at the dog ML. If your doing this some of your plays may be incorrect. You always have to look at the Favorite to make your plays. Thanks

Understood. I would just like to know how i am supposed to indicate that the Dogs is a play, when listing the plays in the morning?

[ShivaBowl]

Shivbowl, I am not giving out those plays. I am more concerned with the ML plays. But keep up the good work.

Well this is nothing new, again I have nooooooooooooooo idea what you are talking about.
I did not ask you to give out those plays.
Your post clearly states, the you did your own homework, on the BAL and TB game, it would have been nice of you,
to share this with the rest of us.
gl

[EXhoosier10]

Understood. I would just like to know how i am supposed to indicate that the Dogs is a play, when listing the plays in the morning?

My thought would be to list the Fav's line. So in Baltimore's case, if TB was worse than -191, Baltimore would be a play. Because things start to get tricky with high favs and juice (some books might only use 15 cent juice on these plays while others might use 10 or 20, so it's hard to state what baltimore's line should be).

[ShivaBowl]

ML plays based on early lines CIN

CIN if -135 to -175
DET if CWS < -155

[Cranium]

Wiz,
You are the tout in here and you're pimping and shilling for Sportrends. You have several times posted how you have contacted them via email. You seem to have a direct connection with Sportrends. Perhaps you work for them???

You're upset with Bobby because he's acurately recording the ML system. You on the other hand cannot refute this because you refuse to post your units which every solid handicapper does in every forum.

You're smoke and mirrors... and sportrends ML System is going up in smoke post All Star Break. Just admit it.

With August being a dog month, this chalky system will go further in debt.

[bobby29]

Ex hoosier, what were the exact moneyline plays yesterday, because formula said the system went 0-5 but i have the yanks and milwaukee dropping off making it 0-3. was there 2 other plays? Looks liike i will have to actually do the calculations from now on, because formula wont post anything about the system.
If the system did indeed go 0-5 yesterday, thats gonna take alot of winners to overcome the 0-5

if anybody knows the 5 plays let me know so i can post the accurate record.
i have florida, arizona and laa as plays yesterday per formulas early post.

[bobby29]

Wiz,
You are the tout in here and you're pimping and shilling for Sportrends. You have several times posted how you have contacted them via email. You seem to have a direct connection with Sportrends. Perhaps you work for them???

You're upset with Bobby because he's acurately recording the ML system. You on the other hand cannot refute this because you refuse to post your units which every solid handicapper does in every forum.

You're smoke and mirrors... and sportrends ML System is going up in smoke post All Star Break. Just admit it.

With August being a dog month, this chalky system will go further in debt.

This system will get destroyed in august and sept.
Notice how hes trying another tactic now, calling me a sports service scammer, lolllllllllllllllll. I havent mentioned one woord about services since i have been on this site, yet he is constantly promoting sports trends ever chance he gets. So really whos the tout? I told you last night he wouldnt help you and tell you the units and lines on the games. The guy just wants to look like a superstar posting a winning record, without actually adding the juice onto the record. Total friggin fraud.

also take note, in one post he says playing favorites in todays betting world is the way to go, dogs dont win like they used to. So if that was indeed true, why would did he say you should bet more on the dogs then the favorites, lolllllllllllll. Isnt that basically doing opposite of what hes been preaching? If favorites win more, then he should be betting more on them. The guy doesnt know what hes talking about thats the problem.

Lastly the system hes using from sports trends, in none of the rules does it say to play lsess money on a -175 favorite then a -125 favorite. All plays in this sytem need to be played the same and thats how am keeping the record.

[HoulihansTX]

8/14

S/A System

San Diego (No Play >-138)
CWS (No Play >-144)
**Seattle (No play if Cleveland <-105)**
NYY (No Play >-175)
Minny (No Play >-125)
Cincy (No Play >-175)
Boston (No Play <+105) Boston on losing streak
Colorado (No Play >-141) **
Toronto (No Play >-161) ( This will be a pretty big play for me.)

[HoulihansTX]

**So today, how should I list Seattle as a play?**

[EXhoosier10]

**So today, how should I list Seattle as a play?**

Seattle is a dog, so you focus on Cleveland. If the Cleveland line is <-106 to -175>, there is a 26 cent line movement in the wrong direction. So Seattle is a play.

If the line changes to Sea -106, then there is only a 14 cent movement and no play.

The way I make plays based on -105/-105 lines is i compare the line to the ML favorite. So the ML fav is Seattle -120, compared to -105, then no play.

[HoulihansTX]

Seattle is a dog, so you focus on Cleveland. If the Cleveland line is <-106 to -175>, there is a 26 cent line movement in the wrong direction. So Seattle is a play. If the line changes to Sea -106, then there is only a 14 cent movement and no play. The way I make plays based on -105/-105 lines is i compare the line to the ML favorite. So the ML fav is Seattle -120, compared to -105, then no play.

Bart suggested I use this wording for easy understanding.

Seattle (No play if Cleveland <-105)

Does that work for everyone?

[Formulawiz]

Seattle is a dog, so you focus on Cleveland. If the Cleveland line is <-106 to -175>, there is a 26 cent line movement in the wrong direction. So Seattle is a play.

If the line changes to Sea -106, then there is only a 14 cent movement and no play.

The way I make plays based on -105/-105 lines is i compare the line to the ML favorite. So the ML fav is Seattle -120, compared to -105, then no play.

Your right on the mark.

[bobby29]

well since formula wont post what the 5 plays were yesterday which he said went 0-5, am gonna only record 3 of them because i have 2 plays dropping off due to line movements.

arizona +105 lost -100
florida -134 lost -134
philly -125 lost -125
0-3 on the day for a loss of 359

ml ytd from aug 9th on is 7-8 minus 347

[EXhoosier10]

well since formula wont post what the 5 plays were yesterday which he said went 0-5, am gonna only record 3 of them because i have 2 plays dropping off due to line movements.

arizona +105 lost -100
florida -134 lost -134
laaa -125 lost -125
0-3 on the day for a loss of 359

ml ytd from aug 9th on is 7-8 minus 347

I have
ARI
FLA
PHI
TB n/p due to >-175
STL n/p due to >-175
NYY n/p due to >-175
LAA n/p because toronto's pitcher only had 10 IP

[bobby29]

I have
ARI
FLA
PHI
TB n/p due to >-175
STL n/p due to >-175
NYY n/p due to >-175
LAA n/p because toronto's pitcher only had 10 IP

Thanks Exhoosier, i will use your 3 plays for the record.
Isnt it amazing how formula says he doesnt have time to post a daily record, so when somebody else{myself} says they have the time to post a daily record, he still doesnt want it posted and is trying everything he can to discredit me, including saying that he got an email saying iam a sports service. What exactly is he afraid of, thats what i cant figure out. Any idea

what plays do you have for today so far with the system

[EXhoosier10]

For today, here are the plays i see:
ML
Detroit (White Sox must stay better than -155 (-154 -153 -105 etc.))
CIN is a n/p because fla pitcher IP
LAA n/p because Tor Win streak

TPR
Toronto
Minnesota
Cleveland

SA
SD
COL
TOR

[HoulihansTX]

For today, here are the plays i see: ML Detroit (White Sox must stay better than -155 (-154 -153 -105 etc.)) CIN is a n/p because fla pitcher IP LAA n/p because Tor Win streak TPR Toronto Minnesota Cleveland SA SD COL TOR

So no play on Cincy, since the opposing pitcher doesnt have 20IP?

[bobby29]

For today, here are the plays i see:
ML
Detroit (White Sox must stay better than -155 (-154 -153 -105 etc.))
CIN is a n/p because fla pitcher IP
LAA n/p because Tor Win streak

TPR
Toronto
Minnesota
Cleveland

SA
SD
COL
TOR

Thanks Hoosier

[EXhoosier10]

So no play on Cincy, since the opposing pitcher doesnt have 20IP?

According to me, yes. If a system is making a play based on the other pitcher's statistics, I don't believe that if a pitcher has <20 IP that his stats are an indication of his true talent level.

However, Formula doesn't do it this way. Why? He's never explained himself. Here is the wording from ST, "Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings." To me, that means each pitcher in said game.

[HoulihansTX]

Cool.

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 1-0 yesterday

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

According to me, yes. If a system is making a play based on the other pitcher's statistics, I don't believe that if a pitcher has <20 IP that his stats are an indication of his true talent level.

However, Formula doesn't do it this way. Why? He's never explained himself. Here is the wording from ST, "Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings." To me, that means each pitcher in said game.

This question has been asked at least a dozen times. CIN is a play. As long as the pitcher on the team you select has at least 20 innings it does not matter how many innings the opposing pitcher has gone. This is what we have been using last season and this season.

[Formulawiz]

ML plays today based on early lines

LAD, SEA, TEX, LAA

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/15/2010
MIN 1.5
NYY 1.2
TOR 1.0
None if > 175

[HoulihansTX]

8/14
S/A System
San Diego (No Play >-138) (-120) L
CWS (No Play >-144) (-155) No Play
**Seattle (No play if Cleveland <-105)** (Cleveland -115) Seattle (+105) W
NYY (No Play >-175) (-220) No Play
Minny (No Play >-125) (-130) No Play
Cincy (No Play >-175) No Play Only one pitcher 20IP
Boston (No Play <+105) Boston on losing streak
Colorado (No Play >-141) ** (-145) No Play
Toronto (No Play >-161) (+115) L

8/14 (1-2) -1.15Units

[HoulihansTX]

8/15

S/A System

Seattle (No Play >-146)
Fla (No Play >-110)
LA (No Play <+122)
ARI (No Play if Washington is <-134)
Detroit (No Play CWS <-144)
Toronto (No Play >-175)
SD (No Play SF is <-135)

Hopefully this wording of the plays is easily understandable. If not, please ask me how to interpret. Just remember to read out the symbols, and interpret them literally.