New Baseball Power Rating System

[MadTiger]

Todays TPR plays FLA, MIL

Thanks.

[EXhoosier10]

how are these systems doing?

[Formulawiz]

TPR system went 2-0 yesterday +2.0 units

Since started 4-1 +2.5 units

Plays later

[HoulihansTX]

8/21 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

(BPR measurement) If the team is away I will not be able to give their measurement, since only the Home team measurement is listed.

ATL (-155) L
Minny (-1.42) (-190) No Play
Balty (-2.04) (+200) W
Wash (-105) W
Mets (-115) W
Cleveland (+155) L
Florida (-4.88) (-130) W
Kansas City (-3.66) (+110) W
Toronto (+130) L
San Fran (+135) L
Dodgers (-120) W

8/21 (6-4) +2.55Units

[Formulawiz]

Todays TPR plays, all filters apply including no plays on fav > -140
FLA 1
MIL 1.1
NYY 2.2
TEX -1
MIN 1.3

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/22/2010

The Home/Away Pitcher and Team Power Ratings provide here is a season to date snap shot of pitcher performance and how the team supports him. Used with current pitcher form and team streaks it can lay the foundation for developing an edge.

ARZ_________67.7___________553.4
LAD_________47.4___________510.5
MIL__________37.7___________420.3
OAK_________44.1___________279.2
TOR_________BOS-39.7___BOS-239.0
STL_________34.7____________130.3
KC__________38.3___________126.9

Take NY Mets W/Santana over Pittsburgh W/Duke NO PLAY if < -130 or > -175
METS @ PIT, PIT_____ -16.0_______-69.7
8-3 +421
IP >+20, W/L , > -175,
H/A-TP-DIF > 100
No Negative H/A-PP-DIF On Pitcher

[HoulihansTX]

8/22 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

(BPR measurement) If the team is away I will not be able to give their measurement, since only the Home team measurement is listed.

Florida (-3.44)
Wash
Mets
Toronto
Balty (-5.61)
Milwaukee (-2.54)
Kansas City (-3.96)
ATL
Tampa
Cincy
Colorado


As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

[ShivaBowl]

Todays TPR plays, all filters apply including no plays on fav > -140 FLA -200 MIL +120 NYY -340 TEX -165 MIN -120

WIZ could post the numbers, I really don't need the lines.
I took NYY R/L yesterday because the TPR was 2.3.
This has worked out, for me $.
Thanks

[BigMama]

A great day for all...good luck!

[ShivaBowl]

(BPR measurement) If the team is away I will not be able to give their measurement, since only the Home team measurement is listed.

TX: This would be a big help. Thanks
CIN, 6.54
TOR, 6.22
BAL, 5.61
WAS, 4.56
ATL, 4.45 N/P, IP < -20
KC, 3.96
FLA, 3.44 N/P, IP < -20
MLW, 2.54
TAM, 2.48
Mets, 2.34
Col, 1.30

Wiz,
NYY, 2.2
MIN, 1.3
MIL, 1.1
Tex, 1.0
FLA, 1.0 N/P, IP < -20

If you posted the plays like this, it would cut my time in 1/2, when I'm doing my handicapping.
Thanks, BOL.

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/22/2010
------------H/A-PP-DIF------- H/A-TP-DIF
ARZ_________67.7___________553.4
LAD_________47.4___________510.5
MIL__________37.7___________420.3
OAK_________44.1___________279.2
TOR_________BOS-39.7___BOS-239.0
STL_________34.7____________130.3
KC__________38.3___________126.9

Take NY Mets W/Santana over Pittsburgh W/Duke NO PLAY if < -130 or > -175
METS @ PIT:__________ PIT_____ -16.0_______-69.7

High Line Plays > -175
NYY,______40.0______167.74
DET,______117.7_____825.4
PHI,______29.4_______115.8
Sunday Night
MIN,______-24.5____+92.7

[HoulihansTX]

OK cool.

[Formulawiz]

WIZ could post the numbers, I really don't need the lines.
I took NYY R/L yesterday because the TPR was 2.3.
This has worked out, for me $.
Thanks

Changed it

[Formulawiz]

TPR system went 2-1 yesterday, +1.0 units
MIL-L
TEX -W
MIN -W
Total 6-2, +3.5 units

Todays TPR plays later

[HoulihansTX]

8/22 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

(BPR measurement) If the team is away I will not be able to give their measurement, since only the Home team measurement is listed.

Florida (-3.44) NO Play <20IP
Wash (+210) L
Mets (-155) L
Toronto (+135) L
Balty (-5.61) (+120) L
Milwaukee (-2.54) (+120) L
Kansas City (-3.96) (-105) W
ATL No Play <20IP
Tampa (-120) W
Cincy (+130) W


As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

8/22 (3-5) -1.25Units

[Formulawiz]

Todays TPR plays

STL - 1.3, -140
PHI - 1.3, -155
BOS - 2.6, -180

No plays on fav > -140

[HoulihansTX]

8/23 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Minny, 6.00
STL, 4.41
Cincy, 1.54

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/23/2010

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/23/2010

______H/A-PP___H/A-TP
COL____66.4____531.2 WIN
SFG ____79.5____528.7 WIN N/P
TEX____88.9____464.2 WIN
BOS____15.2____315.8 Win, No Play > -175
PHI____16.6_____298.8 Loss, No Play > -175
DET____25.2____229.9 WIN
TAM,___LAA_-7.9__-128.1 WIN

14-8 +456 As of 08/19/2010

SFG L/2 CINN W/1

Working on the H/A-PP-DIF Numbers, comparing them to the H/A-TP-DIF #
EX; what would be the right cut off number, for H/A-PP, to drop a play?
EX; BOS, PHI, TAM.
Compared to COL, SFG, TEX.

Filter IP > 20, W/L and > -175
Filter H/A-TP-DIF over > 100
Filter, No Negative numbers on the H/A-PP-DIF for pitcher.

[Formulawiz]

______H/A-PP___H/A-TP
COL____66.4____531.2
SFG____79.5____528.7
TEX____88.9____464.2
BOS____15.2____315.8
PHI____16.6_____298.8
DET____25.2____229.9
TAM,___LAA_-7.9__-128.1

SFG L/2 CINN W/1

Working on the H/A-PP-DIF Numbers, comparing them to the H/A-TP-DIF #
EX; what would be the right cut off number, for H/A-PP, to drop a play?
EX; BOS, PHI, TAM.
Compared to COL, SFG, TEX.

Filter IP > 20, W/L and > -175
Filter H/A-TP-DIF over > 100
Filter, No Negative numbers on the H/A-PP-DIF for pitcher.

Take St Louis W/Lohse over Pittsburgh W/Ohlendorf NO PLAY if < -140 or > -175

Its difficult to apply additional filters yet until we have a good idea as to which stats perform the best. For example is it pitcher power or team power that we should rely mostly on in combination with fav's or dogs at a certain price.

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/22/2010 UPDATE
------------H/A-PP-DIF------- H/A-TP-DIF
ARZ_________67.7___________553.4 Loss
LAD_________47.4___________510.5 Loss
MIL__________37.7___________420.3 Loss
OAK_________44.1___________279.2 Loss
TOR_________BOS-39.7___BOS-239.0 Loss
STL_________34.7____________130.3 WIN
KC__________38.3___________126.9 WIN

High Line Plays > -175
NYY,______40.0______167.74 WIN N/P
DET,______117.7_____825.4 WIN N/P
PHI,______29.4_______115.8 WIN N/P
Sunday Night
MIN,______-24.5____+92.7 WIN N/P

10-8 +56 As of 08/19/2010
I'm taking Sundays off , I just hate them.

[ShivaBowl]

Its difficult to apply additional filters yet until we have a good idea as to which stats perform the best. For example is it pitcher power or team power that we should rely mostly on in combination with fav's or dogs at a certain price.

OK I'm going to drop Filter H/A-TP-DIF over > 100 and No Negative numbers on the H/A-PP-DIF for pitcher to see what the outcome is.
But I'm willing to bet, that the H/A-PP-DIF, will have the best result.

GL

[Formulawiz]

OK I'm going to drop Filter H/A-TP-DIF over > 100 and No Negative numbers on the H/A-PP-DIF for pitcher to see what the outcome is.
But I'm willing to bet, that the H/A-PP-DIF, will have the best result.

GL

I would agree with you.

[ShivaBowl]

Todays TPR plays STL - 1.3, -140 PHI - 1.3, -155 BOS - 2.6, -180 No plays on fav > -140

?

Wiz, what are your filters, for TPR?
tks

[Formulawiz]

[/b] ?

Wiz, what are your filters, for TPR?
tks

Its the same we have been using for all systems in addition to 1 additional filter which is NO play if FAV > -140

[Formulawiz]

TPR system went 1-0, +1.0 units yesterday.
7-2, +4.5 units to date
STL W
PHI > -140 NP
BOS > -140 NP

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Todays TPR plays

STL 1.4, -250
PHI 1.3, -240
MIL 1, +125
BOS 2.6, -210

Looks like 1 play today on MIL.

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/24/2010
TOR____183.5____1463.3 N/P
COL_____67.6_____627.1 COL-122 WIN
CWS____74.4_____433.2 CWS - 167 WIN
CIN_____SFG- 27.4, SFG-421.7 CIN +102 Loss
NYM____10.4____399.6 NYM +100 WIN
CHC____WAS-12.7, WAS-161.8 CHC +121 WIN
LAD____MIL-43.5, MIL-105.8 LAD -122 WIN

FYI; Theirs not a lot of data, for TOR & NYY pitchers, but the numbers are high on TOR, this seems to be a trend with this system,
I'm keeping an eye it it, to see if it works in are favor or something to avoid? there's no action on this game.

PTPR went 4-0 yesterday
14-8 +456 As of start date 08/19/2010

Take LA Dodgers W/Kuroda over Milwaukee W/Bush NO PLAY if < -125 or > -175

Filter IP > 20, W/L and > -175
Filter H/A-TP-DIF over > 100
Filter, No Negative numbers on the H/A-PP-DIF for pitcher.

[HoulihansTX]

8/23 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Minny, 6.00 (+135) L
STL, 4.41 (-120) W
Cincy, 1.54 (+125) L

8/23 (1-2) -1Unit

[HoulihansTX]

8/24 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Milwaukee 10.27
Balty 3.79
NYY 1.41
Cincy 1.37
Houston 1.35
Florida 1.20
Arizona 1.20

[ShivaBowl]

PTPR, went 5-1 yesterday
19-9 +877 As of start date 08/19/2010

[Formulawiz]

Yesterday TPR went 0-1, -1.0 unit
7-3, +3.5 units

Plays later today.

[HoulihansTX]

8/24 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Milwaukee 10.27 (+110) L
Balty 3.79 (+155) L
NYY 1.41 (-105) W
Cincy 1.37 (+100) L
Houston 1.35 (+240) W
Florida 1.20 (-110) L
Arizona 1.20 (+185) L

8/24 (2-5) -1.7Units

[HoulihansTX]

8/25 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

San Diego 2.34
Tampa Bay 1.99 MIstake Agels were a play, but didnt pass filter
Oakland 1.93 Cleveland is a play, but doesnt pass filter.
STL 1.22

If Seattle somehow beats Boston in Game 1, then they would be a play in game two.

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/25/2010

COL___96.1____617.4 (+107) WIN
CHC___WAS-159.5___WAS-490.5 (-112) WIN
NYY____TOR-25.0___TOR-261.4 (-133) LOSS
LAD____MIL-75.2____MIL-226.5 (-105) WIN
OAK____CLE-5.6____CLE-135.8 (-139) WIN
FLA____NYM--132.6___NYM-608.5 (-108) WIN N/P
FLA L/2

PTPR, went 5-1 yesterday 08/24
19-9 +877 As of start date 08/19/2010


Filter IP > 20, W/L and > -175
Filter H/A-TP-DIF over > 100
Filter, No Negative numbers on the H/A-PP-DIF for pitcher.

[Formulawiz]

Todays TPR plays

PHI 1.3, -330
STL 1.4, -165
BOS 2.6, -145
BOS 2.6, ? second game

[HoulihansTX]

8/25 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
San Diego 2.34 (-175) W
Tampa Bay 1.99 Mistake Agels were a play, but didnt pass filter
Oakland 1.93 Cleveland is a play, but doesnt pass filter.
STL 1.22 (-170) L

8/25 (1-1) -0.7Units