New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating Plays for 8/19/2010
CIN 773
LAD 418
ATL 374
OAK 174
PHI 136
FLA 128

IP/, W/L , > -175,
H/A-TP-DIF > 100
No Negative H/A-PP-DIF On Pitcher

OAK W/2 TB W/5

Shiva, Are you coming up with new filters for the BB system by using the H/A-PP-DIF. As far as pitcher innings, I feel as long as the pitcher you select is > 20 innings is fine even if the opposing pitcher does not.

[HoulihansTX]

OK TX; thanks for keeping it simple, I will look up the value numbers myself. I know the BPR System is on the bullpen, but don't you need > +20 on the starting pitcher? EX; Mets, are going to bet on the Mets with Misch because its a BPR play? Im just trying to keep it simplistic, for all are simple systems. THANKS

Nope. I only play a choice few. If you guys would like for me to make it clear what I'm playing I will do so. But I still feel the Mets are a play, since the play is on the bully.

If you strongly disagree, I will be more than happy to make clear which pitchers have not played 20IP.

[HoulihansTX]

How we make filtering process working?

Dont bet Against a team on a 2 game win streak.

Dont bet On teams with a 2 game loss streak.

[ShivaBowl]

Nope. I only play a choice few. If you guys would like for me to make it clear what I'm playing I will do so. But I still feel the Mets are a play, since the play is on the bully. If you strongly disagree, I will be more than happy to make clear which pitchers have not played 20IP.

IP...And the value numbers, if you have the time.

Thanks for your hard work.
GL

[ShivaBowl]

Shiva, Are you coming up with new filters for the BB system by using the H/A-PP-DIF. As far as pitcher innings, I feel as long as the pitcher you select is > 20 innings is fine even if the opposing pitcher does not.

Yes I have.
Wiz, could you please takeover TPR? I will work on Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating ,
for the time being.

thanks

[ShivaBowl]

I have been to busy latey for Sportrends Premium Internet Service, so I thought I would let them cool of a little and get back with them later, smart right? Look At The @##@# run they have been on
MLB 2010 Premium Internet Service 146 - 88 ( + 28.9 Units ) 08/17
MLB 2009 Premium Internet Service 152 - 89 ( + 34.55 Units ) 08/18
MLB 2009 Premium Internet Service 156 - 90 ( + 38.65 Units ) 08/19

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating Plays for 8/19/2010
UpDate 08/20
CIN 773 WIN -136
LAD 418 WIN -137
ATL 374 No Play > -175
MIN 329 LOSS -156
OAK 174 WIN -137
PHI 136 No Play > - 175
FLA 128 WIN -107
4-1 +244

Filter IP > 20, W/L , > -175,
Filter H/A-TP-DIF > 100 I may change this to a higher # to cut down on the # of plays.
Filter, No Negative H/A-PP-DIF # On Pitcher This may Change
EX; No Play if Negative H/A-PP-DIF # On Pitcher, NYY with Hughes -10.1
Summarize, I will be working with the H/A-PP-DIF numbers and H/A-TP-DIF #rs to put out the best plays.

[Formulawiz]

Yes I have.
Wiz, could you please takeover TPR? I will work on Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating ,
for the time being.

thanks

Yes I can starting tomorrow.

[HoulihansTX]

8/19 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

When using our BPR System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the road team is warranted when the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up more runs.

NYY
Padres
Florida
Mets
Kansas City
Minny
Colorado

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

I'm playing Kansas City for sure.

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: Pitching and Team H/A Power Ratings

You would be hard pressed to find any successful professional handicapper who does not have a definable bankroll, a season game plan to achieve profits and a clear understanding of finding an edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a system or method for guiding you. Generally, Power Ratings is one of many tools that can provide such insight. In essence you create your own line by manipulating data so you can find a game in which your methods indicate that there is an edge to one side or another.

Finding a valid method that meets your style takes trial and error. As with most statistical methods you will need a large enough sampling of games to create a valid projection. Some pitching-only based systems may work well as early as May when a pitcher has completed 15 or more starts.

The Home/Away Pitcher and Team Power Ratings provide here is a season to date snap shot of pitcher performance and how the team supports him. Used with current pitcher form and team streaks it can lay the foundation for developing an eye for an edge.

Summarize, I will be working with the H/A-PP-DIF numbers and H/A-TP-DIF numbers to put out the best plays.

Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating Plays for 8/19/2010
UpDate 08/20
CIN 773 WIN -136
LAD 418 WIN -137
ATL 374 No Play > -175
MIN 329 LOSS -156
OAK 174 WIN -137
PHI 136 No Play > - 175
FLA 128 WIN -107
4-1 +244

Filter IP > 20, W/L , > -175,
Filter H/A-TP-DIF > 100 I may change this to a higher # to cut down on the # of plays.
Filter, No Negative H/A-PP-DIF # On Pitcher This may Change

[HoulihansTX]

8/19 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

NYY (-240) No Play
Padres (-170) W
Florida (-105) W
Mets (+120) L
Kansas City (-110) L
Minny (-155) L
Colorado (+130) L

8/19 (2-3) -2.65Units

[Formulawiz]

Todays TPR plays using existing filters, favorites and Dogs +140 or <
MIL, NYY, MIN

[HoulihansTX]

8/20 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Washington
Cleveland
Baltimore
Florida
Minny
Kansas City
Giants


As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

[HoulihansTX]

I already played Florida

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating Plays for 8/20/2010
PHI.........171.5, 1257.7
CWS.......176.9, 863.1
MLW.......78.1, 440.9
FLA.........55.0, 234.7
BOS.........34.1, 177.1
SFG..........4.8, 320.2

Filter IP > 20, W/L , No Play if >-175
Filter H/A-TP-DIF > 100
Filter Drop Outs
TEX L/4, CHC L/4, CLE < 100, NYY <100, ARZ L/4, CIN <100, PIT L/3
I would stay on CIN hot team + H/A-PP + 33.4
Cubs have given Dempster tons of run support, lately.
Comp, Take Florida W/Sanchez over Houston W/Happ NO PLAY if < -135 or > -175
Comp Since A.S. break,19-7

[MadTiger]

Thanks for the tips.

[ShivaBowl]

8/20 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Washington
Cleveland
Baltimore
Florida
Minny
Kansas City
Giants
As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

Washington IP < 20 ?
SDP ? 3.94
CIN ? 7.18

CIN, value numbers, for a BPR play, are the strongest that I have seen, in the last month.

[HoulihansTX]

Washington IP < 20 ? SDP ? CIN ?

Cincy is a play upon Further review

San Diego is not a play, as Milwaukee is on a winning streak.

*Washington's Pitcher has not played 20IP. If you are to play Washington, proceed with caution.*

8/20 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

*Washington*
Cleveland
Baltimore
Florida
Minny
Kansas City
Giants
Cincy

[Formulawiz]

Cincy is a play upon Further review

San Diego is not a play, as Milwaukee is on a winning streak.

*Washington's Pitcher has not played 20IP. If you are to play Washington, proceed with caution.*

8/20 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

*Washington*
Cleveland
Baltimore
Florida
Minny
Kansas City
Giants
Cincy

WAS is such a prohibitive dog and the chance of winning is slim to none. At this price of +330, its a good idea to wager a small amount your willing to lose.

[ShivaBowl]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX San Diego is not a play, as Milwaukee is on a winning streak.

Yes I know, but what do think about this Filter? S/D won 5 MLW won 2 + MLW at home.
As far as I'm concerned its a wash, I have MLW as a play for H/A.
What do you think.

[ShivaBowl]

Todays TPR plays using existing filters, favorites and Dogs +140 or < MIL, NYY, MIN

NYY 2.3
MIN 1.3
MIL 1.0

Wiz and TX; could we start posting the numbers, along with the plays?
It would be a big help.
Thanks

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX San Diego is not a play, as Milwaukee is on a winning streak. Yes I know, but what do think about this Filter? S/D won 5 MLW won 2 + MLW at home. As far as I'm concerned its a wash, I have MLW as a play for H/A. What do you think.

So you have a modified system? I like it!

Lets run with it. I will start posting the number to go with the plays, but not today. I have a road trip that starts in 2 minutes. So you guys have a great day. If you want to post the updated form of the BPR system. Feel free. GL

[ShivaBowl]

WAS is such a prohibitive dog and the chance of winning is slim to none. At this price of +330, its a good idea to wager a small amount your willing to lose.

What do you or TX; think about the NYY and SEA game. The line -150 is begging you to bet, NYY?

[HoulihansTX]

Cincy is a play upon Further review

San Diego is not a play, as Milwaukee is on a winning streak.

*Washington's Pitcher has not played 20IP. If you are to play Washington, proceed with caution.*


8/20 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
*Washington* (+300) L
Cleveland (+130) L
Baltimore (+175) L
Florida (-175) W
Minny (-130) W
Kansas City Postponed
Giants (+140) W
Cincy (-110) W

8/20 (4-3) *1.4Units

[Formulawiz]

8/20 TPR system went 2-1, +.50 units

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

8/20 (4-3) *1.4Units

Houlihan, I dont think you can count WAS which was a prohibitive dog as losing -1 units. No one would wager the same amount on that game as they would on the other games. I would count the loss but for for fairness I would count it as losing -.5 units at best.

[Formulawiz]

Todays TPR plays FLA, MIL

[HoulihansTX]

Houlihan, I dont think you can count WAS which was a prohibitive dog as losing -1 units. No one would wager the same amount on that game as they would on the other games. I would count the loss but for for fairness I would count it as losing -.5 units at best.

A loss is a loss. The only play in that game was Washington +1.5, but the system recommends ML's.

If it won we would be talking about how great a call that was. Besides I'm not going to change how I grade plays after the game ends. Things like that would have to be identified B4 games go off.

The system has been doing great anyway. I see more winners today.

[HoulihansTX]

8/21 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

(BPR measurement) If the team is away I will not be able to give their measurement, since only the Home team measurement is listed.


ATL
Minny (-1.42)
Balty (-2.04)
Wash
Mets
Cleveland
Florida (-4.88)
Kansas City (-3.66)
Toronto
San Fran

[Formulawiz]

8/21 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

(BPR measurement) If the team is away I will not be able to give their measurement, since only the Home team measurement is listed.


ATL
Minny (-1.42)
Balty (-2.04)
Wash
Mets
Cleveland
Florida (-4.88)
Kansas City (-3.66)
Toronto
San Fran

The Road team has a positive measurement so I am not sure what you mean. Also Minny is a fav over -175.

[HoulihansTX]

The Road team has a positive measurement so I am not sure what you mean. Also Minny is a fav over -175.

Only the home teams measurement is listed though.

If I listed the Road teams measurement I would have to assume that it is the reciprocal of the Home teams number. I would love to do that, but I would only be assuming, and that is unfair to sportrends.

If you asked sportrends how I should list it, then I would be more than happy to do as they recommend.

About Minny: That number can change. when grading plays it will be listed as a no play if the number stays high.

[Formulawiz]

Only the home teams measurement is listed though.

If I listed the Road teams measurement I would have to assume that it is the reciprocal of the Home teams number. I would love to do that, but I would only be assuming, and that is unfair to sportrends.

If you asked sportrends how I should list it, then I would be more than happy to do as they recommend.

About Minny: That number can change. when grading plays it will be listed as a no play if the number stays high.

It was my understanding in speaking with sportrends quite a while ago that a negative value is the number of runs the home team is expected to win by whereas a positive value is the number of runs the home team is expected to lose by. This system deals with runs rather then a power rating or proj ML.

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays for 8/21/2010
TEX ,______191____1065 No Play >-175
WAS,_______97____734 WIN
ATL, ------44_____555 LOSS
DET,_______21_____211 WIN
SFG,________23_____143 LOSS
8-3 +421

Drop Outs SEA, LAA, PIT, BOS, SDP, FLA, COL, OAK, LAD,


Take Atlanta W/Hanson over Chi Cubs W/Gorzelanny NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175

Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating Plays for 8/20/2010
PHI.........171.5, 1257.7 WIN N/P >175
CWS.......176.9, 863.1 N/P
MLW.......78.1, 440.9 WIN
FLA.........55.0, 234.7 WIN N/P >175
BOS.........34.1, 177.1 LOSS N/P >175
SFG..........4.8, 320.2 WIN
6-1 +479

[ShivaBowl]

todays tpr plays fla, mil

TEX?
Min ?
Nyy ?

We don't make up the lines, so we should post all the plays right?
Just take a look at FLA yesterday I got in at -150

[Formulawiz]

TEX?
Min ?
Nyy ?

We don't make up the lines, so we should post all the plays right?
Just take a look at FLA yesterday I got in at -150

You might have a play on MIN but the others are way out.