New Baseball Power Rating System

ShivaBowl · 09-03-10, 10:46 PM

FYI; the new system plays are up for the NFL this week.
I posted them early, so that I could get your help and do some additional work on them?

Also, we could use some help, with the new CF system and PR plays.
Thanks,

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/222464-college-pro-football-new-power-rating-system.html

ShivaBowl · 09-03-10, 10:59 PM

PTPR, Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays
09/04
FLA if < -150
LAD if < -150

Take Tampa Bay W/Shields over Baltimore W/Guthrie NO PLAY if < -140 or > -175

Formulawiz · 09-04-10, 06:26 AM

Yesterday the TPR system went 1-1, +.30 units
COL W
CLE L
ARI NP ML > -140. Too bad it was a win

Since started 15-5, +10.2 Units.

TPR plays later today

Formulawiz · 09-04-10, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

FYI; the new system plays are up for the NFL this week.
I posted them early, so that I could get your help and do some additional work on them?

Also, we could use some help, with the new CF system and PR plays.
Thanks,

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...ng-system.html

Shiva Myself and peter will do the pro football plays. Can you guys concentrate on college. Ill post the plays for college later for the spreadsheet so everyone can see what the plays are using the filters. Luckily sportrends put the college team PR's in alphabetical order.
As far as the AI system the plays are there. We should watch the plays because they could change since there using the lines in their calculation.

BigMama · 09-04-10, 06:30 AM

A great day for all...good luck

HoulihansTX · 09-04-10, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/3 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Detroit 5.66 (+160) W
Mets 3.58 (-105) L
Texas 2.87 (-110) L
Florida 2.15 (+110) W
Cleveland 1.54 (+110) L

9/3 (2-2) +0.55Units

HoulihansTX · 09-04-10, 06:53 AM

9/4 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Detroit 6.44
Texas 3.09
Tampa 2.84

Formulawiz · 09-04-10, 07:22 AM

Todays TPR plays
ARI 1.5 < -140
COL 1
GL

Formulawiz · 09-05-10, 05:39 AM

Yesterday TPR system went 1-1, -.15 units
Since started 16-6, +10.05 units

What a way to lose the ARI game.

Plays later today

HoulihansTX · 09-05-10, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/4 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Detroit 6.44 (-120) W
Texas 3.09 (+110) L
Tampa 2.84 (-145) L

9/4 (1-2) -1.45Units

Formulawiz · 09-05-10, 09:34 AM

Todays TPR plays

COL 1
ARI 1.5

HoulihansTX · 09-05-10, 09:57 AM

9/5 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

NYY 4.15
Houston 3.29
Tampa Bay 2.38
Detroit 1.53
Cubs 1.27
Milwaukee 1.17 (This makes no sense, b/c Milwaukee's Bullpen blew the game yesterday.)
ATL 1.16
Pitt 1.03
Dodgers 1.01(Read Milwuakee)

ShivaBowl · 09-05-10, 10:25 AM

PTPR, Pitching and Team H/A Power Plays 09/05
Update 09/06
BAL, R/Line___53.5___154.2 WIN
PIT,___45.8___114.6 LOSS
FLA,___17.3___179.6 WIN
2-1 yesterday 09/05
36-25 +879
Start Date 08/19
________________________________________ __________________________

0-1 yesterday 09/04
FLA should have been a N/P there wasn't any value on FLA at -150 and over,
it should have read N/P if FLA >-150 my mistake with post.
34-24 +769
Start Date 08/19

Formulawiz · 09-06-10, 05:48 AM

Yesterday TPR system went 1-1, +.20 units
Since started 17-7, +10.25 units

plays later today

ShivaBowl · 09-06-10, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/5 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs NYY 4.15 Houston 3.29 Tampa Bay 2.38 Detroit 1.53 Cubs 1.27 Milwaukee 1.17 (This makes no sense, b/c Milwaukee's Bullpen blew the game yesterday.) ATL 1.16 Pitt 1.03 Dodgers 1.01(Read Milwuakee)

TX; maybe an additional filter or two would help,...to cut down on the number of plays,
EX; Drop all plays + or - 150 or,200?

That would have filtered out,
Detroit 1.53
Cubs 1.27
Milwaukee
ATL 1.16
Pitt 1.03
Dodgers 1.01

BOL

ShivaBowl · 09-06-10, 09:05 AM

PTPR, Plays 09/06

CWS,____DET-123.2__DET-821.0
TOR,___80.0___422.7
No Play if TOR > -150

Comp, Sportrends
Take Oakland W/Anderson over Seattle W/Vargas NO PLAY if < -170 or > -175

Formulawiz · 09-06-10, 09:08 AM

Todays TPR plays
ATL 1.2, > -140
CHC 1.2, HOU W2
NYY 1.7, > -140
MIN 1, > -140

No Plays Today.

HoulihansTX · 09-06-10, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/5 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
NYY 4.15 (-180) NP
Houston 3.29 (-105) W
Tampa Bay 2.38 (-160) L
Detroit 1.53 (-130) L
Cubs 1.27 (-150) L
Milwaukee 1.17 (+140) W
ATL 1.16 (-120) L
Pitt 1.03 (+100) L
Dodgers 1.01 (-140) L

9/5 (2-6) -5.6Units

HoulihansTX · 09-06-10, 11:26 AM

9/6 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Milwaukee 7.25
ATL 4.27
Houston 2.07

Omitting Philly as a play. The starting pitchers on both teams, are random, with no stats to speak of.

HoulihansTX · 09-06-10, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

TX; maybe an additional filter or two would help,...to cut down on the number of plays, EX; Drop all plays + or - 150 or,200? That would have filtered out, Detroit 1.53 Cubs 1.27 Milwaukee ATL 1.16 Pitt 1.03 Dodgers 1.01 BOL

Lets filter out the Pirates also. Just on principle.

I would filter out big road favorites. And you filters work too.

HoulihansTX · 09-07-10, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/6 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Milwaukee 7.25 (-125) L
ATL 4.27 (-190) NP
[B][I] Houston 2.07 (-120) L

9/6 (0-2) -2.45Units

Formulawiz · 09-07-10, 08:55 AM

Todays TPR plays
ATL 1.2, L2, NP
CHC 1.2
NYY 1.6, > -140, NP
MIN 1, > -140, NP
OAK 1

2 plays CHC, OAK

HoulihansTX · 09-07-10, 09:00 AM

9/7 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Philly 3.91
Boston 1.09
San Diego 1.85

ShivaBowl · 09-07-10, 09:47 AM

PTPR, Plays 09/07

PHI,___74.8___505.0
TOR,___51.4___281.6

Comp Sportrends,
Take San Diego W/Latos over LA Dodgers W/Kershaw NO PLAY if SD > -105

2-0 yesterday 09/06
38-25 +1102
Start Date 08/19

Formulawiz · 09-08-10, 07:19 AM

Yesterday TPR system went 0-1, -1.2 units
Since started 17-8, +9.05 units

Plays later

Formulawiz · 09-08-10, 07:24 AM

Todays TPR plays

ATL 1.2, L2, NP
CHC 1.2
NYY 1.6, L3, > -140, NP
MIN 1.1

Plays CHC, MIN

ShivaBowl · 09-08-10, 08:05 AM

2-0 yesterday 09/07
40-25 +1302
Start Date 08/19

PTPR, Plays 09/08
MIN,___22.2___561.4 W -152
CLE,___LAA,-24.9___-202.0 L +130
CHC,___25.9___147.4 L -117
NYM,___WAS-20.0___WAS+33.7 W -105

HoulihansTX · 09-08-10, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/7 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Philly 3.91 (-150) W
Boston 1.09 (+100) L
San Diego 1.85 (-140) W

9/7 (2-1) +1Unit

ShivaBowl · 09-08-10, 08:10 AM

MLB 2010 Premium Internet Service 185 - 109 ( + 44.35 Units )

Complimentary Selection for 9/8/2010
Take Chi Cubs W/Wells over Houston W/Myers NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 09-08-10, 08:15 AM

Good luck today boys i don't know what cubs team shows up myers has been a beast all year !!

HoulihansTX · 09-08-10, 08:16 AM

9/8 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Milwaukee 5.39
Minny 3.59
San Diego 2.39 Np, Pitcher NO 20IP
Houston 2.39
Mets 2.33
Boston 1.09

ShivaBowl · 09-08-10, 08:17 AM

xxx

HoulihansTX · 09-08-10, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by WIZARDOFBEANTOWN

Good luck today boys i don't know what cubs team shows up myers has been a beast all year !!

Look the other way when Sportrends picks the Cubs. Their record is not pretty in those situations.

ShivaBowl · 09-09-10, 12:33 AM

[quote=ShivaBowl;6271885]

MLB 2010 Premium Internet Service 185 - 109 ( + 44.35 Units )

Complimentary Selection for 9/8/2010 Take Chi Cubs W/Wells over Houston W/Myers NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

I jumped ship, when the line went to -117
Good call Sam, thanks

HoulihansTX · 09-09-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

9/8 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs
Milwaukee 5.39 (+120) W
Minny 3.59 San Diego 2.39 Np, Pitcher NO 20IP
Houston 2.39 (+110) W
Mets 2.33(-115) W
Boston 1.09 (+135) W

9/8 (4-0) +4.65Units