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Comment -
I don't have a dog in this fight and I could care less about it.
I started using the M/L System along with the TPR System back on 06/12/2010
and I am up close to 6,000.00 dollars, but I will be the first to admit its been a total grind
but that's OK because it sure beats, being down 6000 for the year.
Also, I think I am a small time better when it comes to MLB, on average I only bet+- to win 100.00 on any game.
I think the main problem here, is that the Systems we are using take up a lot of time
and the last thing you want to do when your done is to furnish records also.
It is distressing to me also, when I see we went 3-1 or 0-3 the next day, but it is what it is, so do the
best that you can with it.
With the M/L System the line and the play are one in the same, when the lines are to close to call then pass on the game
that's what I do.
Just one more thing, a lot of times we get burned, just like too night with the NYY.
The NYY were a M/L System Play and a winner but dropped out N/P if < -135
BOLComment -
Team Projected Run Plays for 8/8/2010
Update 08/08
MIL 1.6 WIN N/P > -175
COL 1.5 WIN
MIN 1.4 WIN
KC 1.2 LOSS
ARZ 1.0 LOSS
Comp Play From Sportrends.com 08/08 WIN
Take Minnesota W/Duensing over Cleveland W/Huff NO PLAY if < -145 or > -175
ARZ looking to sweep SD
MIL looking to sweep HOU
TPR, since A.S. break, 33-25
COMP, since A.S. break,12-4
Comment -
ML system went 3-0 yesterday
Plays to followComment -
[quote=HoulihansTX;5820053]8/8
S/A System
S/A System
Minny (No Play >-175) (-150) W
Angels (No Play >-132)** (+120) L
CWS (No Play >-175) (-120) L
Braves (No Play >-129) (-125) W
Mets (No Play <+160)** (+190) L
Colorado (No Play >-175)** (-110) W
Cincy (No Play >-175) (-125) W
Tex (No Play <+111) (+100) No Play
Dodgers (No Play >-175) (-180) No Play
NYY (No Play >-161) Pitching Change No Play
Shouldn't ATL be a play on SF? Line is ATL +154 and actual line is ATL -125. So 75 cent movement makes the play on the opposite side of SF.Comment -
As of now there are no ML playsComment -
We need to keep our discussion in this forum on an intelligent and civil manor from now on. A good handicapper if handed a baseball system that is hitting over 60% and cant make money as you are ShivaBowl, is somewhat of an amateur. To tell us the ML system only gained +2.37 units is fair if you live in the theoretical world and wager $100 dollares on every game, no matter what the ML is. In my world, no good handicapper worth his weight in gold would ever wager the same amount of money on a team that is a -175 favorite as compared to a team who is favored by -125, 90% of the time unless all the stats are heavily weighed in that teams favor. So it all boils down to money management. You can't compare baseball to football or basketball because you are wagering against a spread and not a money line. In those sports, units can be used. We are dealing with a completely different sport here. Here we have a system thats 50 games over .500 and hitting over 60% and I am still shaking my head hearing you cant make money. We cant make assumptions here that everyone is betting the same amount of money on every game. That would be incorrect to think everyone has the same betting style.
This is why I only post a win/loss record. Its the only way to fairly evaluate how good a system is performing and its up to the individual handicapper to determine how much they wager on a game. I think you will find a majority of people on our thread who have successfully made quite a bit of money using the ML system. Unfortunately there are always a few people who fail to make money using a successful system which is hitting over 60%. All I ask is don't lump everyone together in the same category, its a mistake and flawed thinking.Comment -
8/9
S/A System
CWS (No play >-175)
Reds (No Play <+129)
KC (No Play >-102)
Oak (No Play >-138)Comment -
[quote=ShivaBowl;5836155]I don't know what the hell your talking about, but I have had, all I can take, with this thread.
BOL
Shiva,
reread his first sentence....i dont think he is taking a shot at you, rather he is seeing your positive results and wondering about those that are questioning how to make money with these systems.
my 2 cents.Comment -
your so full of shit with your bs its unreal.
The only way to evaluate a system is with a win-loss record, lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllll not in baseballl my friend, its all about the units and to sit here and say people should be putting differnt amounts on differnt plays makes you even more full of crap. I suppose on all the 145 winners you had 500 bucks a game and on the 96 losers you only had 50 bucks a game.
Quit being a damn chicken shit and start posting a record with units won and lost everyday. Do this until the end of the year and i will bet you will be down units. Make every one of your plays for 100 bucks, starting tomorrow chicken shit. You dont want to do it, because sam you dont want your stupid system exposed. Must have taken you a long time to create a system based on all favorites.Comment -
dont worry formula, starting tomorrow i will post the record for the system until the end of the year, to show people betting all favorites everyday will lead them to the poorhouse.
record will be based on every play being for 100 bucks.
This should take me a whole 2 minutes to do everydayComment -
I am not worried and neither are the participants here. The records speaks for themselves and thats why we have one of the largest followings here on SBR. Its amazing to all of us that your handed a system hitting over 60% and then all you can do is to produce +2.37 units.
Good luck in your handicapping.
Again I am asking you to be civil and not to use profanity.Comment -
You really arent to bright. You know nothing about gambling. A 60 percent system is not that good when you are laying on average -145 on all your plays.
Heres a little math for your simple mind
lets say you hit 60 percent, so that means for every 100 games you play, you will go 60 wins and 40 losses, which is 60 percent for your simple mind to follow.
so now lets break that down into actual money.
60 wins times 100 dollars a game = 6000
40 losses times 145 {average lay price on your plays} = 5800
so lets see that comes out to +200 or 2 units for every 100 plays
This is based on the -145 your average lay price, which i know is really wrong and is closer to -155 or -160
maybe you can fool people with your fancy 60 percent record, but when you start breaking that percentage down into actual units won/lost your system isnt that hot. Sorry pal the math just doesnt lie.
like i said we will see from tomorrow on how bad this system is and how it will be minus money. Vegas was built by suckers like you playing huge favorites everyday. Why dont you actually learn how to handicap games and pick some big dogs. Thats how the real bettors win money. They play the dogs and at the end of the year they might have a losing record, but they are still up big money because they bet dogs.
You keep playing favorites and one day you will be filing for bankruptcy.
not really the big money making system you keep trying to make people believe it is. The math dont lie pal.Comment -
Double postComment -
Instead of using winning percentage, or even units, I see more and more cappers using Return on Investment (ROI) now instead.Comment -
You want to post the records for the System plays, that's fine with me, but I want the plays not the next day plays or the next days closing line plays, but the plays, the ones 15min before game time.
That's the problem here, no one is on the same page.
(betting all favorites everyday will lead them to the poorhouse) I don't have time to get in to this right now, but I think your wrong.
I Quote the dogman,
quote=ShivaBowl;5739603] Could someone please explain why you cant win betting on favs in MLB? I here this all the time. I'm up this year betting on favs with Sportrends and Formualwiz, last year I was on a lot of dogs and got my clock cleaned.
Originally Posted by dogman
Shiva great question. The fact is you can win money by betting the favorites. In the past betting dogs were the way to go, not any more. My opinion is that the Odds Maker has improved over the years and there is more value betting the Favorites than the Dogs.Comment -
Thank you for your input and your exactly correct. ROI calculates the total amount of money lost divided by total money risked. Thats exactly the point I was getting at the other day but in different terms. It seems there are those few people who dont understand this. You obviously would not bet the same amount on a fav at -175 as compared to a fav at -125. There are also times when you would wager more on a dog at different ML's as well. Thats why you can't use the mathematics that was proposed here and tell us the ML system is only up +2.37 units when you have a system that is hitting over 60%.
Thats unheard of.Comment -
Thats exactly correct. I was showing people that you were up 1000's of dollars using the same system we all are and you are a very good handicapper. Unlike others who dont understand handicapping and use fuzzy math. I am sorry if it came across negatively. We would like for you to continue making the plays.Comment -
Todays ML plays based on early lines.
COL, ATL, TOR, SEA
GLComment -
You want to post the records for the System plays, that's fine with me, but I want the plays not the next day plays or the next days closing line plays, but the plays, the ones 15min before game time.
That's the problem here, no one is on the same page.
(betting all favorites everyday will lead them to the poorhouse) I don't have time to get in to this right now, but I think your wrong.
I Quote the dogman,
quote=ShivaBowl;5739603] Could someone please explain why you cant win betting on favs in MLB? I here this all the time. I'm up this year betting on favs with Sportrends and Formualwiz, last year I was on a lot of dogs and got my clock cleaned.
Originally Posted by dogman
Shiva great question. The fact is you can win money by betting the favorites. In the past betting dogs were the way to go, not any more. My opinion is that the Odds Maker has improved over the years and there is more value betting the Favorites than the Dogs.
Dogman you are exactly correct. Playing dogs was the way to go in the old days and thats why so many sports services have fallen to the wayside. They never adapted. I have found this to be true the past 5 years and have made quite a bit of money predominantly playing favorites. But there are those genius's here who think you should bet the same amount on a -175 fav as you would on a -125 fav. I call this LALA handicapping.Comment -
thanks....can never have enuff info
Comment -
once again your full of shit with this post. The ml system is a mechanical system that just picks plays, to sit here and say you are going to put this much money on this game and that much money on that game, is just you blowing smoke up peoples ass once again. Yeah i know sam, you played 500 bucks a game on all the -125 games and 50 bucks on all the -175 plays, lollllllllllllllllllllllllll.
Bottomline is long term you will not make money betting huge favorites everyday, even if you are hitting 60 percent.
Man i cant stand people like you, who post crap like this that can hurt young gamblers who dont know any better.
oh and another thing 100 units won last year, yeah sure you did. keep dreaming, you fraudComment -
well tell us old great one, how much are you putting on each play? I guess that would have taken a whole extra 2 minutes to post.
amazing how you claim this to be to time consuming, yet the calculations for the plays are already done for you by sports trends. oH thats right your sam and have to do the calculations.Comment -
Team Projected Runs for 8/10/2010
ATL 1.2
COL 1.1
OAK 1.0 N/P
Complimentary Selection for 8/10/2010COMP, since A.S. break,13-4
Take Seattle W/Hernandez over Oakland W/Anderson NO PLAY if < -125 or > -175
TPR, since A.S. break, 34-26
FYI; Sportrends, MLB 2010 Premium Internet Service 129 - 81 ( + 20.95 Units ) Not to bad, good work Sam.
Comment -
Rockies (-165) @ Mets with a total of 7; U. Jimenez vs. M. Pelfrey;
Pelfrey is just a complete and total mess, but at this price, I don't see how you can back Ubaldo Jimenez. I don't see how you can back Pelfrey, either, given how much he has just stunk beyond stunk. Let's be honest - there are going to be games in this series where we will back the Mets. It's almost inevitable, since they play so much better at home than on the road, and the Rockies are the exact opposite, but Pelfrey, who might "find a nut" in this one if his team scores 5-6 runs, is just not the guy for me. Let's wait until later in the series.Comment -
8/10
S/A System
FLA (No Play <+169)
LA (No Play >-128)
STL (No Play >-101)
ATL (No Play >-175)
Colorado (No Play >-174)
Minny (No Play >-108)
ARI (No Play >-175)Comment
