New Baseball Power Rating System

[ShivaBowl]

This would be my first line in my summary.
ALL MONEY LINE SYSTEM PLAYS, ARE BASED ON EARLY LINES.

[Formulawiz]

This would be my first line in my summary.
ALL MONEY LINE SYSTEM PLAYS, ARE BASED ON EARLY LINES.

Shiva dont confuse people the filters are set so that the plays are made at gametime and the closing lines the next morning are whats used. Thanks

By the way the NYM were a play and a loss yesterday

[ShivaBowl]

Originally Posted by ShivaBowl

This would be my first line in my summary.
ALL MONEY LINE SYSTEM PLAYS, ARE BASED ON EARLY LINES.

Wiz this post was a joke on my part. TKS

[BlueJays]

Shiva dont confuse people the filters are set so that the plays are made at gametime and the closing lines the next morning are whats used. Thanks

By the way the NYM were a play and a loss yesterday

So what was the overall score yesterday?

[HoulihansTX]

8/3

S/A System

LAA (No Play >-112)**
Cincy (No Play >-175)
Cleveland (No Play <+173)
Wash (No Play >-138)
Oak (No Play >-139)
Tex (No Play >-151)
San Diego (No Play >-175)
Toronto ( No Play <+131)

** Bell has 21.1(IP), but all are coming out of the Bullpen with the exception of one start against Tex. He only lasted 3(IP), and was lit up for 4 runs. Proceed with caution.

San Diego again today.

[BlueJays]

Todays ML plays based on early lines

CIN no play < -150
TB no play < -150
OAK no Play < -150
TEX no Play < -140
of course no play if any game > -175

Ill do this for a few days until people can get familiar with it.

I see CIN and OAK at less than -150 and TB and TEX at more than -150/140. So first 2 are plays, the other 2 are non-plays?

[HoulihansTX]

I see CIN and OAK at less than -150 and TB and TEX at more than -150/140. So first 2 are plays, the other 2 are non-plays?

Cincy is the only play at this time.


But wait until closer to gametime then make your bet. You want to let the lines settle out.

[ShivaBowl]

Shiva dont confuse people the filters are set so that the plays are made at gametime and the closing lines the next morning are whats used. Thanks By the way the NYM were a play and a loss yesterday

Don't worry I wont confuse anyone.
But now that I'm confused? what good are the next days closing lines?
Do you have a play 15min before game start or not, the next day lines are
worthless unless your playing with monopoly money.
Thanks

[Formulawiz]

Don't worry I wont confuse anyone.
But now that I'm confused? what good are the next days closing lines?
Do you have a play 15min before game start or not, the next day lines are
worthless unless your playing with monopoly money.
Thanks

The closing line which can be found the next morning are actually the line 15 to 20 minutes before the game starts 95% of the time. To put it a little differently the ML does not change that much within the last 20 minutes.

[EXhoosier10]

The closing line which can be found the next morning are actually the line 15 to 20 minutes before the game starts 95% of the time. To put it a little differently the ML does not change that much within the last 20 minutes.

Why don't you stick to one method? You would blast me time and time again for using closing lines and telling me that is not how to play the system, and now you go and tell Shiva that you use closing lines? Does anyone take you seriouslY?

[Formulawiz]

Why don't you stick to one method? You would blast me time and time again for using closing lines and telling me that is not how to play the system, and now you go and tell Shiva that you use closing lines? Does anyone take you seriouslY?

I really dont know why I am bothering to answer you. You are by far the biggest idiot I have seen yet. Your even more stupid then your other 2 buddies who do nothing but complain and you have no clue as to what your talking about. All along closing lines have been our major filter in every sport. Oh, but I forgot you dont know how to read. Do us all a favor and just take your other 2 friends and go away so we dont have to listen to your constant crap.

[Formulawiz]

Since i am a paying customer of Sportrends, i took the liberty of emailing Sam. I explained to him that this thread while getting exposure to his products is causing grave damage to his system and potential clients.

I explained that a magnanimous jerk is causing more damage than good to his products and that in the long term most customers will be turned off instead of wanting to purchase because of the confusion, and animosity caused by Formula Whiz. I went on to explain that it takes less time to post the changes on the line ( if any) than it does to argue with the folks who are mis-understanding.

I also pointed out that under no circumstances does WHiz accept when he is wrong and blatantly tells people to get out of his thread if we do not like the way he runs things. I explained that Whiz attitude against people is a direct reflection on Sportrend products and should be discerned before moving forward. He sent me his phone number and scheduled a time to call. I will respond in the next 48 hours with an update.

Izzy, I just got off the phone with sportrends to see if there were any new features in their college and pro football programs for this season. After we were done we had a good laugh about your comments. So let me help you out. Dont expect a response in the next 48 hours because you wont get one, so stop complaining.

[EXhoosier10]

To put it a little differently the ML does not change that much within the last 20 minutes.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/175973-new-baseball-power-rating-system-p45.html#post5458995

[Formulawiz]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ml#post5458995

Again your incorrect. What I said is that the lines 15 to 20 min before game starts does not change that much when you compare them to the closing lines the next morning. Do you understand now or do you want me to tell you this in sign language.

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 1-1 with TB and TEX
CIN, OAK dropped out

Todays possible ML plays based on early lines

CIN No play < -160
LAD No play < -120
OAK No play < -160
TB No play < -160
of course no play > -175

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/4/2010
TEX 1.9 N/P tex L/2
BOS 1.8
CIN 1.6
STL 1.3 N/P HOU W/7
No TPR Plays, if lines -175 & over
TPR, since A.S. break, 23-20
COMP, since A.S. break, 9-3

Complimentary Selection from Sportrends.com for 8/4/2010

Take Tampa Bay W/Price over Minnesota W/Baker NO PLAY if < -160 or > -175

[HoulihansTX]

8/3 S/A System

LAA (No Play >-112)**(+100) L
Cincy (No Play >-175) (-130) L
Cleveland (No Play <+173) (+220) L
Wash (No Play >-138) (+125) L
Oak (No Play >-139) (-175) No Play
Tex (No Play >-151) (-150) No Play
San Diego (No Play >-175) (-105) L
Toronto ( No Play <+131) (+140) W

** Bell has 21.1(IP), but all are coming out of the Bullpen with the exception of one start against Tex. He only lasted 3(IP), and was lit up for 4 runs. Proceed with caution. San Diego again today.

8/3 (1-5) -3.95units

Thank you Hoosier

[ShivaBowl]

Wiz, when you have the time, could you post the terminology along with the math formula, on how you came up with,
No Play if LAD < -120... Im only asking, because out of all the M/L plays today, the Proj ML is a little tricky.
Thanks, GL

[HoulihansTX]

8/4

S/A System

Cincy (No Play >-175)
SF (No Play <+122)
Tor (No Play <+108)
KC (No Play <+145)
Angels (No Play >-175)
MIL (No Play <+148)
Detroit (No Play >-167)
Philly (No Play <+152)
Rays (No Play >-175)
Houston (No Play >-149) **
San Diego (No Play >-125)
Washington (No Play >126)

** Happ has 21.1(IP) in only 4 MLB games. He has only allowed 3 ER in that span. The S/A System weights heavily on pitchers stats. Happs stats are a small sample size. Proceed with caution.

[EXhoosier10]

8/3
S/A System

LAA (No Play >-112)**(+100) L
Cincy (No Play >-175) (-130) L
Cleveland (No Play <+173) (+220) L
Wash (No Play >-138) (+125) L
Oak (No Play >-139) (-175) L...............-175>-139...no play
Tex (No Play >-151) (-150) No Play
San Diego (No Play >-175) (-105) L
Toronto ( No Play <+131) (+140) W
8/3 (1-6) -5.7units

edited

[Formulawiz]

Wiz, when you have the time, could you post the terminology along with the math formula, on how you came up with,
No Play if LAD < -120... Im only asking, because out of all the M/L plays today, the Proj ML is a little tricky.
Thanks, GL

Sure. SD proj -105 and LAD is the actual fav at -140. Therefore LAD can go to -120 which would give you the 25 cent overlay. +105 -120 = 25cents

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 2-0 yesterday
I have to leave now. Shiva can you put the ML plays up today.Thanks

[EXhoosier10]

ML looks something like this today


Tampa Bay <-140 to -175>
Detroit <-130 to -175>
San Francisco <-110 to -175>
Philadelphia <-120 to -175>
Seattle <-105 to -175>
Dodgers <-130 to -175>

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/5/2010

TEX 1.9
BOS 1.8
COL 1.6

No TPR Plays if lines -175 & over
TPR, since A.S. break, 24-20
COMP, since A.S. break, 9-3

Complimentary Selection for 8/5/2010

Take Detroit W/Scherzer over Chi W Sox W/Garcia NO PLAY if < -130 or > -175

[HoulihansTX]

8/4

S/A System
Cincy (No Play >-175) (-160) W
SF (No Play <+122) (+170) L
Tor (No Play <+108) (+170) L
KC (No Play <+145) (+180) L
Angels (No Play >-175) (-140) L
MIL (No Play <+148) (+135) No Play
Detroit (No Play >-167) (-115) L
Philly (No Play <+152) (+125) No Play
Rays (No Play >-175) (-185) No Play
Houston (No Play >-149) ** (+225) L
San Diego (No Play >-125) (+130) L
Washington (No Play >126) (+135) W



** Happ has 21.1(IP) in only 4 MLB games. He has only allowed 3 ER in that span. The S/A System weights heavily on pitchers stats. Happs stats are a small sample size. Proceed with caution.

8/4 (2-7) -5.2units Wow, just Wow

[ShivaBowl]

ML plays went 2-0 yesterday I have to leave now. Shiva can you put the ML plays up today.Thanks

EXhoosier10 took care of it and all the M/L System Plays are correct..
Thanks
Thanks EX10

[HoulihansTX]

8/5

S/A System

CWS (No Play <+134)
Minny (No Play <+130)
Tex (No Play >-149)
Philly (No Play <+115)
Colorado (No Play >-175) **

** James McDonald only has 7.2 IP. Only 5 of those innings where in a starting role, where he gave up 4ER's. The System weights heavily on pitching stats. The question is do both pitchers need 20 IP, or just the pitcher who the play is on(Colorado)??? My guess is that 20IP is needed on both sides for the numbers to be accurate. Any Answers???

I say this b/c Cleveland is favored(-205) today according to the system. Though Cleveland's starting pitcher, Tomlin, doesnt have 20IP. His 12IP have been great with only 7hits, and 2ER's in his combined two starts. We can all agree that those stats are not an ample sample size, right? Dice-K 4 years experience, and Tomlin 2 career starts.

[EXhoosier10]

** James McDonald only has 7.2 IP. Only 5 of those innings where in a starting role, where he gave up 4ER's. The System weights heavily on pitching stats. The question is do both pitchers need 20 IP, or just the pitcher who the play is on(Colorado)??? My guess is that 20IP is needed on both sides for the numbers to be accurate. Any Answers???

I only look at plays if both starters have 20+ IP. I go by the same thinking you do. However, Shiva and Formula both say to only worry about the team you are playing on. So if team A has 100 IP and team B has 15IP, you can play team A, but not team B.

[ShivaBowl]

FYI; M/L System Plays, Yesterday 08/04 Went 2-0

CIN No play < -160 WIN
LAD No play < -120 WIN
OAK No play < -160 NO PLAY, Dropped Out
TB No play < -160 NO PLAY, Dropped Out

[Formulawiz]

ML looks something like this today


Tampa Bay <-140 to -175>
Detroit <-130 to -175>
San Francisco <-110 to -175>
Philadelphia <-120 to -175>
Seattle <-105 to -175>
Dodgers <-130 to -175>

Thanks form posting the plays. I really appreciate it.

[HoulihansTX]

8/5
S/A System

CWS (No Play <+134) (+140) W
Minny (No Play <+130) (+140) W
Tex (No Play >-149) (+110) W
Philly (No Play <+115) (-120) No play
Colorado (No Play >-175) (-155) L**

** James McDonald only has 7.2 IP. Only 5 of those innings where in a starting role, where he gave up 4ER's. The System weights heavily on pitching stats. The question is do both pitchers need 20 IP, or just the pitcher who the play is on(Colorado)??? My guess is that 20IP is needed on both sides for the numbers to be accurate. Any Answers???

I say this b/c Cleveland is favored(-205) today according to the system. Though Cleveland's starting pitcher, Tomlin, doesnt have 20IP. His 12IP have been great with only 7hits, and 2ER's in his combined two starts. We can all agree that those stats are not an ample sample size, right? Dice-K 4 years experience, and Tomlin 2 career starts.

8/5 (3-1) +3.25units

Everytime I put an (**) its has ended in a loss(0-3). I know my sample size is small, but I arise to the same summation after every game... When both pitchers dont have at least 20IP there is not enough data to come up with a play. No matter who the play is on. I will count the loss, but be warned I do not play those games that have ** by them.

[Tommy_de1st]

Guys, do you play those picks for real money or is it just a test?

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 1-3 yesterday

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines.

COL NO play if < -130
STL No play if < -130
MIL No play if < -125
MIN No play if < -135
NYY No play if < -135
TEX No play if < -135
KC NO play if < -120

Of course no Play if > -175

Hopefully those of you who are following the math here will be able to calculate your own plays tomorrow.

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/6/2010

MIL 1.6
COL 1.5
MIN 1.4
K.C 1.3
ARZ 1.0
Complimentary Selection from sportrends.com for 8/6/2010
Take Texas W/Lee over Oakland W/Braden NO PLAY if < -125 or > -175

Yesterday 08/05
TEX 1.9 WIN
BOS 1.8 N/P >-175
COL 1.6 LOSS
Comp LOSS
No TPR Plays if lines -175 & over
TPR, since A.S. break, 25-21
COMP, since A.S. break, 9-4