New Baseball Power Rating System

EXhoosier10 · 07-24-10, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I think you make a good point about playing more dogs.

This is my record for the SA system for dogs only.
11-26 -12.1 units

Formulawiz · 07-24-10, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

This is my record for the SA system for dogs only.
11-26 -12.1 units

If this continues then I think sportrends would be better off making their plays as they did with the ML system which picks predominantly favorites.

scratbandit · 07-24-10, 03:14 PM

This didn't work out at all. damn

ShivaBowl · 07-25-10, 02:56 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/24/2010
BOS 2.8 N/P
CIN 2.0 WIN
MIN 1.3 WIN
NYY 1.1 N/P
No TPR Plays if you pay -175 & over
TPR since A.S. break, 10-12
COMP Plays A.S. 6-1
Comp OAK WIN

TPR Plays later today.

Formulawiz · 07-25-10, 07:43 AM

Nice day with ML system 3-1.

ML plays later today

Formulawiz · 07-25-10, 08:09 AM

I hate sundays, but here are todays ML plays based on early lines

ATL, SD, SF, LAD, OAK, TOR with Litsch

ShivaBowl · 07-25-10, 09:22 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/25/2010

BOS 2.7
CIN 2.1
MIN 1.3
NYY 1.1
No TPR Plays if you pay -175 and over.

Complimentary Selection for 7/25/2010
Take LA Dodgers W/Kershaw over NY Mets W/Dickey NO PLAY if < -170 or > -175

ShivaBowl · 07-25-10, 09:32 AM

Yesterday 07/24
S/A System 4-0
M/L System 3-1
TPR System 2-0
9-1

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 09:35 AM

7/24
S/A System

Dodgers ( No Play <-138) (-120) W
Padres (No Play >-175) (-170) W
Reds (No Play >-157) (+100) W
Giants (No Play >-175) (+100) W

7/24 (4-0) +4 units

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 09:44 AM

7/25

S/A System

Red Sox (No Play >-152)
Oakland (No Play <-147)
Twins (No Play >-175)
Rays (No Play >-175)
Mets (No Play >-103)
Reds (No Play >-175)
Padres (No Play >-175)
ATL (No Play >-160)

EXhoosier10 · 07-25-10, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

7/24
S/A System

Dodgers ( No Play <-138) (-120) W
Padres (No Play >-175) (-170) W
Reds (No Play >-157) (+100) W
Giants (No Play >-175) (+100) W

7/24 (4-0) +4 units

Weren't White Sox a play? They lost

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Weren't White Sox a play? They lost

They had to be equal to or greater than +120

The projection was Oak +105, so White sox -105. (-105 +.25 = +120)

They closed +105 on avg.

EXhoosier10 · 07-25-10, 10:24 AM

"

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 10:45 AM

I said on avg... +105

I use books that deal 10 cent lines or better. Books that deal 20 cent lines are useless. They deal those lines so people cant make money betting bases.

Pinny +106
5Dimes +105
Bet Jam +106
Legendz -104
Bet Online +106
Looselines +108

kfranz31 · 07-25-10, 11:23 AM

has anyone bought the software...and how is their record for the software..i know they dont allow to post their software picks but i was going to buy the softwarebut wanted to knoe how it was first...thanks

EXhoosier10 · 07-25-10, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I said on avg... +105

I use books that deal 10 cent lines or better. Books that deal 20 cent lines are useless. They deal those lines so people cant make money betting bases.

Pinny +106
5Dimes +105
Bet Jam +106
Legendz -104
Bet Online +106
Looselines +108

Time stamps for Pinnacle
07/24 06:58 +106 / -113

5dimes
07/24 08:20 +105 / -115

BetJM
07/23 17:50 +104 / -114

These are the lines that SBR posts for yesterday's games. How does a line at 8:20am count as the close for a 4PM?
There are reasons people don't use SBR odds for line info....

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Time stamps for Pinnacle 07/24 06:58 +106 / -113 5dimes 07/24 08:20 +105 / -115 BetJM 07/23 17:50 +104 / -114 These are the lines that SBR posts for yesterday's games. How does a line at 8:20am count as the close for a 4PM? There are reasons people don't use SBR odds for line info....

Truthfully i dont use SBR lines. I have my own line service. Show me the odds .com

I hand write certain line movements also. I have oakland -120 @ 10 am pacific CWS +112. That still does not fit the S/A system.

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 11:35 AM

7/25

S/A System

Red Sox (No Play >-152)
Oakland (No Play <-147)
Twins (No Play >-175)
Rays (No Play >-175)
Mets (No Play >-103)
Reds (No Play >-175)
Padres (No Play >-175)
ATL (No Play >-160)

bump

EXhoosier10 · 07-25-10, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Truthfully i dont use SBR lines. I have my own line service. Show me the odds .com

I hand write certain line movements also. I have oakland -120 @ 10 am pacific CWS +112. That still does not fit the S/A system.

Oak -120 should be a SA play though. Since they are the favorite, you look at their Proj Line. So projected at +105 and actual -120 is a play. Formula says to look at the game favorite and not the Projection's favorite.

ShivaBowl · 07-25-10, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I hate sundays, but here are todays ML plays based on early lines

ATL, SD, SF, LAD, OAK, TOR with Litsch

Looks like you don't have to worry, all the lines seem dead today.

ShivaBowl · 07-25-10, 12:52 PM

Team Projected Runs for 7/25/2010
BOS 2.7
CIN 2.1
MIN 1.3
NYY 1.1
No TPR Plays if you pay -175 and over.

ML plays based on early lines Wiz.
ATL, SD, SF, LAD, OAK, TOR with Litsch

S/A System TX.
Red Sox (No Play >-152)
Oakland (No Play <-147)
Twins (No Play >-175)
Rays (No Play >-175)
Mets (No Play >-103)
Reds (No Play >-175)
Padres (No Play >-175)
ATL (No Play >-160)

Complimentary Selection for 7/25/2010
Take LA Dodgers W/Kershaw over NY Mets W/Dickey NO PLAY if < -170 or > -175

HoulihansTX · 07-25-10, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

7/25
S/A System

Red Sox (No Play >-152) (-140) L
Oakland (No Play <-147) (-151) W
Twins (No Play >-175) (-120) W
Rays (No Play >-175) (-132) W
Mets (No Play >-103) (+164) L
Reds (No Play >-175) (-121) L
Padres (No Play >-175) (-135)W
ATL (No Play >-160) (-132) L

7/25 (4-4) -0.9 units

Formulawiz · 07-26-10, 07:13 AM

ML system went 2-1 yesterday.

Todays plays later

Formulawiz · 07-26-10, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by kfranz31

has anyone bought the software...and how is their record for the software..i know they dont allow to post their software picks but i was going to buy the softwarebut wanted to knoe how it was first...thanks

Its been doing pretty good. As a matter of fact yesterday BB went 3-0 and PT went 6-2. Of course you have your bad days as well. I have a friend who uses different number of games back and he is doing pretty good. I guess everyone can set their own filters in the software. I also use it in conjunction with the ML system and some other systems I have.

HoulihansTX · 07-26-10, 07:38 AM

7/26

S/A System

Cubs (No Play >-175)
Giants (No Play >-154)
Twins (No Play >-148)

JimmyJet · 07-26-10, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I hate sundays, but here are todays ML plays based on early lines

ATL, SD, SF, LAD, OAK, TOR with Litsch

The above went 5-1. In another post you state that ML plays went 2-1. Have not followed this thread from beginning so just curious if the early lines ML plays are always that good.

Thanks...for your work

ShivaBowl · 07-26-10, 09:12 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/26/2010
Updated 07/27
NYY 1.5 WIN
CHC 1.4 WIN
TOR 1.2 WIN N/P >-175
CWS n/p L2 WIN
BOS n/p L2 WIN
No TPR Plays if lines are -175 & over
TPR since A.S. break, 13-14
COMP Plays A.S. 7-1

Complimentary Selection for 7/26/2010

Take Chi Cubs W/Silva over Houston W/Wright NO PLAY if < -145 or > -175

Formulawiz · 07-26-10, 09:29 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines

CHC travel?, MIL

ShivaBowl · 07-27-10, 12:54 AM

WIZ can I drop the No Play Filter for TPR lost 2 N/P?
Or how about dropping it for BOS?

I did not see the late line plays for the M/L System, I think CHC dropped out and what did you have
for a no play on MIL if >-120 ?
Thanks

HoulihansTX · 07-27-10, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

7/26

S/A System
Cubs (No Play >-175) (-130) W
Giants (No Play >-154) (-125) L
Twins (No Play >-148) (-105) W

7/26 (2-1) +0.75 units

Formulawiz · 07-27-10, 04:42 AM

The ML system yesterday went 1-0 and that was MIL

Formulawiz · 07-27-10, 04:48 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

WIZ can I drop the No Play Filter for TPR lost 2 N/P?
Or how about dropping it for BOS?

I did not see the late line plays for the M/L System, I think CHC dropped out and what did you have
for a no play on MIL if >-120 ?
Thanks

Shiva the beauty of any system is that you can use filters you feel are best for you. Since using the sportrends software for over 15 years I have developed some filters that were very helpful in weeding out losers. Look I am sure there are people who use different parameters when using the software in football, basketball or baseball and perhaps are having better success then me. If you feel BOS or CHC were a play yesterday due to a gut call, hey theres nothing wrong with that. I myself pretty much stick to handicapping systems since they have worked for me.

Joe Dogs · 07-27-10, 05:22 AM

Didn't Seattle qualify as a ml play?Chi sox pro ml -155 there closer was in the -120 range....No play? Thanks

Formulawiz · 07-27-10, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by Joe Dogs

Didn't Seattle qualify as a ml play?Chi sox pro ml -155 there closer was in the -120 range....No play? Thanks

No I looked at that game 15 to 20 minutes prior to game starting and the ML was still in the -135 range which would not qualify SEA for a play. Secondly SEA travelled pretty far, from west to east coast.

Formulawiz · 07-27-10, 07:11 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines

STL, MIL