New Baseball Power Rating System

[HoulihansTX]

S/A Plays

Astros (No play if < +130)
Colorado (No play if > -160)
Texas (No play if > -175)
Giants (No Play if > -145)
Angels (No Play if < +140)

TX ( No Play if > -175)
White Sox (No Play > -115)

To understand the plays, read out the symbols and take their meaning literally.

For Example

White Sox (No Play > -115)
-- White Sox are not a play if favored by more than -115.

Astros (No play if < +130)
-- Astros are not a play if a Dog of less than +130

Hopefully this is helpful. If my plays contradict other plays you guys may have fell free to correct me.

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 7/21/2010

TAM, NYY, CUBS, BOS, MIL, CWS
No Play if you pay -175 and over.

Complimentary Selection for 7/21/2010
Take Milwaukee W/Wolf over Pittsburgh W/Duke NO PLAY if sbr lines under -130
Quote=Formulawiz;
Todays ML plays, based on early lines, CHC, MIL, ARI, KC. Here we go with the CUBS again

[Joe Dogs]

Toronto is a no play for SA system....Rzepczunski doesn't have 20 innings pitched.

[HoulihansTX]

I corrected it Joe.

[dsklein85]

So KC is no longer a ML bet since opposing pitcher doesnt have 20IP....

[ShivaBowl]

So KC is no longer a ML bet since opposing pitcher doesnt have 20IP....

dsklein85, The rule were using; we have a play on the pitcher, that has pitched at least 20 innings.
With the M/L System, The New System and TPR.
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

Astros @ Cubs Myers vs. T. Lilly;
If the Cubs could beat a bad team, we might not look at them so dis favorably. As it stands, though, Chicago just keeps coming up short to the clubs they should beat. Now, a potential trade piece, Ted Lilly, well get the daytime nod against one of the most consistent starters that most folks aren't talking about, Brett Myers. Myers is 7-6 this year with a 3.35 ERA, and 8-3 lifetime (2.63 ERA) against the Cubbies, including a win this year over Randy Wells where Myers went 6.2 innings and allowed just 2 runs. Lilly is equally solid against this opponent, 7-1, 2.49 ERA lifetime against the Astros, though he hasn't faced them this year. He is coming off a nice start against the Phillies, a 10-strikeout effort that was his high water mark for the year.

Public money is moving > the Cubs line today, will see what happens 15min before game start.
The M/L System is on the Cubs and the S/A is on the Astros?

[ShivaBowl]

Toronto is a no play for SA system....Rzepczunski doesn't have 20 innings pitched.

Joe add STL and BOS to S/A Plays for today.
GL

[LeeRain]

Are the cubs a play for the ML at a line of -120? If i use favorites from the proj. ML colum, the Phillies are -105 and 25 cent move would be to Phi -130 or to Phi +120. If the line stays at Phi +110, does that mean no play for the ML system?

Or should I use the Actual favorite's line and go 25 cents from that? So since the cubs are the real favorites in vegas, their projected ML is +105 and 25 cents off of that is +130 (makes the play on Phi) or -120 (makes the play on ChC).

So to sum up my question, when trying to make a play, do I look at the actual favorite's proj. ML and go 25 cents off of that to make the play, or do I go 25 cents off of the favorite from the projected ML column?

[dsklein85]

thanks for the heads up shiva. i wasnt sure what you guys were doing for filters in here. i was just basing my post off what the sportrends site says (that each pitcher has to have 20IP). anyways, BOL today!

[EXhoosier10]

S/A Plays

Astros (No play if < +130)...Cubs -138 is the cutoff. So HOU +128 is a play
Colorado (No play if > -160)...Col cutoff is -154. If hits -155 to -175, no play
Texas (No play if > -175)...Tex isn't a play if -174 or -175. -173 is the cutoff
Giants (No Play if > -145)...SF isn't a play if they are -135 or worse (-136 is no play),
Angels (No Play if < +140)...Nyy -148 is the cutoff. Laa+138 is a play (+139 and up is also)
TX ( No Play if > -175)...-173 is the cutoff. -174 and -175 aren't plays.
White Sox (No Play > -115)[B]...Seattle must remain the favorite for ChW to be a play

Hope this clears this up a little bit

[LeeRain]

Are the cubs a play for the ML at a line of -120? If i use favorites from the proj. ML colum, the Phillies are -105 and 25 cent move would be to Phi -130 or to Phi +120. If the line stays at Phi +110, does that mean no play for the ML system?

Or should I use the Actual favorite's line and go 25 cents from that? So since the cubs are the real favorites in vegas, their projected ML is +105 and 25 cents off of that is +130 (makes the play on Phi) or -120 (makes the play on ChC).

So to sum up my question, when trying to make a play, do I look at the actual favorite's proj. ML and go 25 cents off of that to make the play, or do I go 25 cents off of the favorite from the projected ML column?

[EXhoosier10]

Are the cubs a play for the ML at a line of -120? If i use favorites from the proj. ML colum, the Phillies are -105 and 25 cent move would be to Phi -130 or to Phi +120. If the line stays at Phi +110, does that mean no play for the ML system?

Or should I use the Actual favorite's line and go 25 cents from that? So since the cubs are the real favorites in vegas, their projected ML is +105 and 25 cents off of that is +130 (makes the play on Phi) or -120 (makes the play on ChC).

So to sum up my question, when trying to make a play, do I look at the actual favorite's proj. ML and go 25 cents off of that to make the play, or do I go 25 cents off of the favorite from the projected ML column?

I compare everything to the actual favorite. Don't expect any response from formula though; understanding this question would go too far into understanding how the system works.

[ShivaBowl]

LeeRain, This is the M/L formula for the Cubs & HOU game today, hope this helps.

Proj M/L from sportrends Cubs -110 +.25=Cubs -135 No Play on the Cubs if your book line is -135 and under
also N/P on the Cubs if -175 and over.

I pool all the lines at http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds/20100721.aspx
GL

[Formulawiz]

There is no way I played the CUBS when the line was driven up by the public to -175. As a matter of fact I went with the SA system in this one. Thats why I put the comment in this morning about the CUBS.
A little common sense was need in this game.

Secondly I had a conversation with sportrends today about the ML system. It is their feeling the casinos are already all over the ML system based on the conversations they had with some of their connections at some of the casinos. I think you can see how the bookies are manipulating the lines now. They know that -175 is a baseline where many gamblers dont go over. Thy were telling me that a tremendous amount of money went on the CUBS today and the line should have been way over -200, but it stayed below -175.
Take it for what it is.

[EXhoosier10]

There is no way I played the CUBS when the line was driven up by the public to -175. As a matter of fact I went with the SA system in this one. Thats why I put the comment in this morning about the CUBS.
A little common sense was need in this game.

Secondly I had a conversation with sportrends today about the ML system. It is their feeling the casinos are already all over the ML system based on the conversations they had with some of their connections at some of the casinos. I think you can see how the bookies are manipulating the lines now. They know that -175 is a baseline where many gamblers dont go over. Thy were telling me that a tremendous amount of money went on the CUBS today and the line should have been way over -200, but it stayed below -175.
Take it for what it is.

Can you post these tips before the outcome of the game is already decided? Thanks for your insight though

[barts185]

I dont know about you guys but I am solely using the ML system and just following the SA and TPR systems. Remember, the SA system is new with no past results. The ML system made me a fortune last year and is continuing to kill the bookies again this year.

There is no way I played the CUBS when the line was driven up by the public to -175. As a matter of fact I went with the SA system in this one.

Maybe I am just too stupid to understand what those words mean, but is sure seems like a contradiction.


Of course, it was 3 days ago, so maybe he changed his mind in that time period and just forgot to mention it.

[Formulawiz]

Maybe I am just too stupid to understand what those words mean, but is sure seems like a contradiction.


Of course, it was 3 days ago, so maybe he changed his mind in that time period and just forgot to mention it.

Yes again you show your stupidity and dont read posts. I specifically mentioned this morning to watch out for the CUB's which so many of the posters have done as well. It does not mean I changed my opinion and use the SA system over ML system. It was just in this particular game. Again I ask you to keep your dumb comments to yourself. I thought you said in several posts you were going to keep your mouth shut. Now live up to it. We dont need your opinions, we are doing just fine without you.

[HoulihansTX]

S/A Plays
Astros W
Colorado L
Texas L
Giants L
Angels L
TX
White Sox [b]

I will be back to add up all of the plays for the day. Just wanted to get a head start

Hope this clears this up a little bit

I need to know how you are reading the lines for the S/A system. Are you using a 10 cent dissonance from the Dogs to the Favs?
The S/A system has Tigers as a +1.98 Dog. So are you reading TX as a -2.08 fav?

If not, I will have to respectfully disagree with that way of using the projected lines.
Other than that thank you for explaining my mistakes in you earlier posts.

[EXhoosier10]

We dont need your opinions, we are doing just fine without you.

These are my numbers for tonight with updates since the all star game

ML (already 0-2 with Atl and Ari playing now)....since A.S. break, 10-11 -5.05units
Cubs -175
Atlanta -165
Arizona -135
Milwaukee -135

TPR (Already 0-3 with Chw left)....since A.S. break, 5-11 -9.75units
Milwaukee -135
Chi. White Sox +120
Chi. Cubs -175
Boston -110

SA (Already 1-4 with StL, SF, and ChW left)....since A.S. break, 20-17 +3.75units
White Sox +120
Texas -110
St. Louis -140
San Francisco +135
Houston +165
Colorado +100
Boston -110
Angels +180

[HoulihansTX]

FYI, dont play the Cubs when the ML system picks them. They have lost almost everytime this season, when picked by the system.

The books, and sportrends have not figured out how bad the cubs are.

[barts185]

Yes again you show your stupidity and dont read posts. I specifically mentioned this morning to watch out for the CUB's which so many of the posters have done as well. It does not mean I changed my opinion and use the SA system over ML system. It was just in this particular game. Again I ask you to keep your dumb comments to yourself. I thought you said in several posts you were going to keep your mouth shut. Now live up to it. We dont need your opinions, we are doing just fine without you.

"Here we go with the CUBS again"


Because EVERYONE knows that meant play the other side. That was SO MUCH CLEARER than saying, "I'm playing Houston."


It wasn't my opinion, I was QUOTING you. Sorry if you can't even stay consistent for 3 days.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/solely

Maybe it's just that you're (note the correct usage of your vs. you're) the stupid one. Oh - see, I can say those words as well. Wow, how intelligent you must be.


I'm done for now - please continue with all the clarity you've brought to this thread so far.



LET OBFUSCATION REIGN!!!

[EXhoosier10]

FYI, dont play the Cubs when the ML system picks them. They have lost almost everytime this season, when picked by the system.

The books, and sportrends have not figured out how bad the cubs are.

Just so I can double check my numbers against yours, what record do you have for the Cubs with the ML system?

I will be back to add up all of the plays for the day. Just wanted to get a head start I need to know how you are reading the lines for the S/A system. Are you using a 10 cent dissonance from the Dogs to the Favs?
The S/A system has Tigers as a +1.98 Dog. So are you reading TX as a -2.08 fav?

If not, I will have to respectfully disagree with that way of using the projected lines.
Other than that thank you for explaining my mistakes in you earlier posts.

Det are +1.98. So TEX is -198. 25 cents would be -198+25 = -193+20=-173. You said "no play > -175".... -175 is only a 23 cent difference, not the 25 cents that is needed.

[ShivaBowl]

There is no way I played the CUBS when the line was driven up by the public to -175.

Well put Wiz, no one in there right mind, would ever pay, over -150 on the Cubs.
The M/L System tracks the Cubs because they have strong line movement.
But I can see, that we are all on the same page. GL

SDP just keep winning +150 tonight I love this team and their BP.
To bad ATL won there last 2, SD would have been a S/A play.

[HoulihansTX]

I have not been keeping a written record. Its only an observation, that i have made about the Cubs.


"Det are +1.98. So TEX is -198"

This is what I disagree with. I have never seen a book deal a line that looks like this. If sportrends is projecting a certain line, such as the Det +1.98. Then there would have to be a 10 cent difference between the fav, and dog. So Detroit +1.98, would mean Texas -2.08.

That is how books deal lines obviously. But if sportrends instructs us to read the lines the way you have described, then I am more than willing to conform. And if they do, where do they?

[EXhoosier10]

I have not been keeping a written record. Its only an observation, that i have made about the Cubs.


"Det are +1.98. So TEX is -198"

This is what I disagree with. I have never seen a book deal a line that looks like this. If sportrends is projecting a certain line, such as the Det +1.98. Then there would have to be a 10 cent difference between the fav, and dog. So Detroit +1.98, would mean Texas -2.08.

That is how books deal lines obviously. But if sportrends instructs us to read the lines the way you have described, then I am more than willing to conform. And if they do, where do they?

The way I look at it, a system is created to give a team a certain percent chance of winning. Say my system says a team is to win 56% of the time. That mean the line is about -127. A system isn't taking into account the juice. A team that wins 44% of the time +127. Why would a system take into account the juice? Also, a line of -208 is never +198. It's almost always a 15 cent difference when the favorite is worse than -200. Some books even start charging more vig for -190. What is your cutoff? is a +210 play -220? Casinos don't do that either.

I guess this is all besides the point and is just speculation. Formula, can you weigh in on this? If the line is listed at 1.98, when comparing to the favorite, do we compare to -198 or -208?

[barts185]

My understanding (limited as it is since I'm stoopid) is that sportrends is coming up with the "true line".


They explain it on their website, from the SA plays:

"As an example, suppose WAS at home is facing the NYM's and the Predicted ML is 2.25. This indicates the NYM's are an overwhelming favorite at 2.25."

Maybe I'm wrong - apparently I'm wrong about everything else, even when I'm just quoting things. So above is just another quote, from the website.

Take Care,
Bart

[ShivaBowl]

"Det are +1.98. So TEX is -198"

I'm not sure whats going on here, but maybe I could help, with the the S/A System Det was never a +198 dog with the S/A/S only Tex -198 was in consideration.
BOL

[HoulihansTX]

Sportrends doesnt clearly described how to read their lines. Their technical writing skills leave much to be desired.

I think we should just agree on a certain way of reading the lines. I can agree to read the lines, as reciprocals of each other.
So Det +1.98, and Tex -1.98. Easy, and fixed.

Also I use Pinnacle as my deciding factor on the efficiency of a line. They are the market leaders in bases, after the Greek sets the line.

And yes you are correct about 15 cent dissonance on lines above -170.

Also Bart, You are correct about what sportrends aim is on the S/A system. They are giving their fair line on a game according to their numbers.

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[Formulawiz]

These are my numbers for tonight with updates since the all star game

ML (already 0-2 with Atl and Ari playing now)....since A.S. break, 10-11 -5.05units
Cubs -175
Atlanta -165
Arizona -135
Milwaukee -135

TPR (Already 0-3 with Chw left)....since A.S. break, 5-11 -9.75units
Milwaukee -135
Chi. White Sox +120
Chi. Cubs -175
Boston -110

SA (Already 1-4 with StL, SF, and ChW left)....since A.S. break, 20-17 +3.75units
White Sox +120
Texas -110
St. Louis -140
San Francisco +135
Houston +165
Colorado +100
Boston -110
Angels +180

You left ot KC using ML system. Greinke has > 20 innings pitched

[Formulawiz]

"Here we go with the CUBS again"


Because EVERYONE knows that meant play the other side. That was SO MUCH CLEARER than saying, "I'm playing Houston."


It wasn't my opinion, I was QUOTING you. Sorry if you can't even stay consistent for 3 days.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/solely

Maybe it's just that you're (note the correct usage of your vs. you're) the stupid one. Oh - see, I can say those words as well. Wow, how intelligent you must be.


I'm done for now - please continue with all the clarity you've brought to this thread so far.



LET OBFUSCATION REIGN!!!

I see you cant help yourself by continuing to open your mouth again. Just shut up and stop cluttering up the thread. If your done for now as you claim you will then shut up.

[Formulawiz]

The way I look at it, a system is created to give a team a certain percent chance of winning. Say my system says a team is to win 56% of the time. That mean the line is about -127. A system isn't taking into account the juice. A team that wins 44% of the time +127. Why would a system take into account the juice? Also, a line of -208 is never +198. It's almost always a 15 cent difference when the favorite is worse than -200. Some books even start charging more vig for -190. What is your cutoff? is a +210 play -220? Casinos don't do that either.

I guess this is all besides the point and is just speculation. Formula, can you weigh in on this? If the line is listed at 1.98, when comparing to the favorite, do we compare to -198 or -208?

You guys are complicating the ML system and reading too much into it. Lets just keep it simple and not worry what the juice should be or interpret what % a team has of winning based on a line. It does not matter. Just take use the 25 cent overlay and use the filters we have in play. Of course you also need to use a little common sense at times.

[Joe Dogs]

I for one did not play the Cubs yesterday......In my opinion any time the money line system gives them as a play,proceed with caution.

[ShivaBowl]

bump