New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

Guys my mistake again, too early in the morning. TB would be the play but the fiilter prohibits it as a play and as far as TOR its a play.

[ShivaBowl]

TPR 1-0 yesterday plays later today.
TOR WIN
BOS WIN N/P
LAA WIN N/P >-175

[ShivaBowl]

Isn't TAM filtered out since NYY are on a 2 game win streak? Wouldn't SDP have to get to -160 in order for there to be a 25 cent difference since the Proj ML is -185? Isn't CLE in game 2 a play at -125 or better (they are currently the dog, and the streak filter won't come into play because it will either be CLE win 2 DET lose 3 or CLE lose 1 DET win 1) ? Do CWS have to be +139 or better, or does MIN have to be -139 or worse? Would be nice to be consistent. But maybe I just don't understand.

I missed the Tam play.
I had SDP as a early line play but not at <-175 it should have been <-160 my typo.
Porj M/L on Min was -114 how could you pay more then that, CWS was the only play.
CLE was a play in the 2nd game.
BAL was not a play.
NYY was not a play
TOR was a play
LAA was a play but only at <-175
The only games I missed was CLE in the 2nd and TAM.

Also, could you please leave out comments like this one; Would be nice to be consistent and Your confusing the entire thread, It doesn’t help anyone.
Thanks GL

[Formulawiz]

I missed the Tam play.
I had SDP as a early line play but not at <-175 it should have been <-160 my typo.
Porj M/L on Min was -114 how could you pay more then that, CWS was the only play.
CLE was a play in the 2nd game.
BAL was not a play.
NYY was not a play
TOR was a play
LAA was a play but only at <-175
The only games I missed was CLE in the 2nd and TAM.

Also, could you please leave out comments like this one; Would be nice to be consistent and Your confusing the entire thread, It doesn’t help anyone.
Thanks GL

Shiva, sorry about that comment, the past 2 days have been grueling. I am free now so I will pay closer attention to the other systems.

[Formulawiz]

Anyway, having said that, the ML system went 3-2 yesterday. What a way for us to lose with TEX in the bottom of the 9th inning with LEE pitching.

Ill leave the TPR and SA system plays and win/loss records up to you guys. If I see something wrong Ill add my 2 cents.

ML plays later today.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines

HOU, PHI, NYY, BOS, OAK

[HoulihansTX]

So what are you guys doing when the scientific, and ML systems contradict each other?

Personally I road the scientific system to victory with the Rays yesterday.

[barts185]

I missed the Tam play.
I had SDP as a early line play but not at <-175 it should have been <-160 my typo.
Porj M/L on Min was -114 how could you pay more then that, CWS was the only play.
CLE was a play in the 2nd game.
BAL was not a play.
NYY was not a play
TOR was a play
LAA was a play but only at <-175
The only games I missed was CLE in the 2nd and TAM.

Also, could you please leave out comments like this one; Would be nice to be consistent and Your confusing the entire thread, It doesn’t help anyone.
Thanks GL

Shiva,

Sorry that the comment wasn't worded nicer. I wasn't disagreeing that MIN was the play.

Here's my question / point :

It has been said that we should use the favorite to determine whether or not a game is a play.

MIN was the proj ML favorite by the system and was the actual ML favorite.

Your post said that CWS was a play if they were +139 or better.

What I was expecting to see was that CWS would be the play as long as MIN was -139 or worse. Maybe you think it doesn't matter and I'm making a big deal out of nothing.

When you said that the play was based on the CWS line, that didn't agree with what has been said previously, and is part of why things are confused. One day the favorite is used to dertermine whether or not something is a play, and the next day they aren't. This game is a case where MIN was both the proj ML favorite and the actual ML favorite, yet their line isn't used to determing is it's a play?

That's what I meant about being consistent. I really am not trying to be a pain, I'm just trying to get answers to how to calculate the plays so I don't have to wonder why one day it's being done one way and one day it's being done another way.

Bart

[Formulawiz]

So what are you guys doing when the scientific, and ML systems contradict each other?

Personally I road the scientific system to victory with the Rays yesterday.

I dont know about you guys but I am solely using the ML system and just following the SA and TPR systems. Remember, the SA system is new with no past results. The ML system made me a fortune last year and is continuing to kill the bookies again this year.
The past few weeks the ML system is 26-4. Not too shaby.
I also seem to recall some bright guy posting that the ML system sucks because all the plays are favorites. Well even if the 4 losses were -1.75 favorites, you still would be up a great deal of money, a minimum of 19 units.

[HoulihansTX]

I understand that the ML system is a money maker, and should not be put on the back burner.

Today I'm getting 7 plays for the SA system.

Marlins
Reds
Brew Crew
Padres
Rays
Red Sox
A's

Now what do I have wrong?

[ShivaBowl]

Todays TPR plays based on early lines.

BOS
TOR
LAA
DET n/p lost 4

Complimentary Selection for 7/18/2010

Take NY Yankees W/Pettitte over Tampa Bay W/Price NO PLAY if < -130 or > -175

[ttratter]

So how has this system done in the past couples weeks?

[ShivaBowl]

Shiva, Sorry that the comment wasn't worded nicer. I wasn't disagreeing that MIN was the play. Here's my question / point : It has been said that we should use the favorite to determine whether or not a game is a play. MIN was the proj ML favorite by the system and was the actual ML favorite. Your post said that CWS was a play if they were +139 or better. What I was expecting to see was that CWS would be the play as long as MIN was -139 or worse. Maybe you think it doesn't matter and I'm making a big deal out of nothing. When you said that the play was based on the CWS line, that didn't agree with what has been said previously, and is part of why things are confused. One day the favorite is used to dertermine whether or not something is a play, and the next day they aren't. This game is a case where MIN was both the proj ML favorite and the actual ML favorite, yet their line isn't used to determing is it's a play? That's what I meant about being consistent. I really am not trying to be a pain, I'm just trying to get answers to how to calculate the plays so I don't have to wonder why one day it's being done one way and one day it's being done another way. Bart

I agree with you, we are now looking for M/L plays with the new S/A System.
It would be a lot easier just to look at MIN proj -114 and the opening line of -150 and make it a no play for the S/A System.

[EXhoosier10]

Today I'm getting 7 plays for the SA system.

Marlins Florida's pitcher only has 11 IP
Reds
Brew Crew
Padres
Rays
Red Sox proj at -118 and actual -150. Play should be opposite on TEX
A's

Now what do I have wrong?

Also, Philly should be a play. Projected -225, actual -160, streaks okay, IP okay.

[madness]

Barts,

i keep trying to post to help. Please do not fixate on "must use favorite" to determine if its a play. Just simply take both teams projected lines which you know how to determine if home team is listed as +115, that means visitor is -115. If home team is listed as -115, then visitor is +115. Then take the actual line for the SA approach and either the favorite or the dog can be getting better value by .25cents. So if the actual line is -175 take back +165, the favorite laying -175 is 60 cents worse which is no play, but the dog is taking +.50 cents better which qualifies as a play. there just isnt anything more to it, the number that sportrends has the line next to or the team that it projects to be favored is not the only team the play must be on as either team can be getting the .25 value.

[ShivaBowl]

S/A System
CIN
MIL
SDP
PHI
TAM
OAK
TEX if >+143
MIN if <-113

[madness]

S/A System
CIN
MIL
SDP
PHI
TAM
OAK
TEX if >+143
MIN if <-113

Looks good except for Min as chicago is -138 and would be the play at -113 (however streak filter). FYI, i still have selectively been playing games that the streak filter has eliminated for 1/2 unit and in short term has been paying off, not sure what will happen in the long run

[Formulawiz]

I understand that the ML system is a money maker, and should not be put on the back burner.

Today I'm getting 7 plays for the SA system.

Marlins
Reds
Brew Crew
Padres
Rays
Red Sox
A's

Now what do I have wrong?

SA System - FLA no play not enough innings pitched, TEX is the play not BOS and PHI could be a play depending on ML.

Secondly let Shivabowl post the plays otherwise we have plays all over the place.

[Joe Dogs]

Using the SA SYSTEM would Houston qualify as a play?

Pittsburgh +160 actual +128.....Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

Madness I used the streak factor in the Cws, Min, game.
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

Using the SA SYSTEM would Houston qualify as a play? Pittsburgh +160 actual +128.....Thanks

If you could get HOU at <-135 it would be, a S/A play.
GL

Cinn is a strong play today with the S/A System

[bobby29]

So your saying going into yesterdays games the ml system was 23-2 the last few weeks
? I must be missing something somewhere.

I dont know about you guys but I am solely using the ML system and just following the SA and TPR systems. Remember, the SA system is new with no past results. The ML system made me a fortune last year and is continuing to kill the bookies again this year.
The past few weeks the ML system is 26-4. Not too shaby.
I also seem to recall some bright guy posting that the ML system sucks because all the plays are favorites. Well even if the 4 losses were -1.75 favorites, you still would be up a great deal of money, a minimum of 19 units.

[saintjames]

are the yankees gonna need a new bullpen if the wanna go far?

[barts185]

Barts,

i keep trying to post to help. Please do not fixate on "must use favorite" to determine if its a play. Just simply take both teams projected lines which you know how to determine if home team is listed as +115, that means visitor is -115. If home team is listed as -115, then visitor is +115. Then take the actual line for the SA approach and either the favorite or the dog can be getting better value by .25cents. So if the actual line is -175 take back +165, the favorite laying -175 is 60 cents worse which is no play, but the dog is taking +.50 cents better which qualifies as a play. there just isnt anything more to it, the number that sportrends has the line next to or the team that it projects to be favored is not the only team the play must be on as either team can be getting the .25 value.

madness,

Thanks, I appreciate your trying to help.

The issue (at least for me) is that there have been games where what you say has not been applied.

If that's the rule, I have no issue with that - use each team seperately, and if there's a 25 cent difference, there would be a play (although SA vs. ML the play would be in different directions, SA taking the better value and ML taking the apparent worse value). Do you understand that's not what has been said, and there have been games listed that didn't work like that?


For example, can you explain how OAK would be a ML system play today? The moneyline system proj ML is

KAN -105 / OAK +105

If I undertand your definition (and since the ML system takes what appears to be the bad value), that means if I look at OAK, they would be a play if the actual ML on them was -120 (projected ML of +105 -25 cents = -120). Did you see anywhere that a consensus line would have had OAK at -120 anytime today?


Thanks,
Bart

[madness]

madness,

Thanks, I appreciate your trying to help.

The issue (at least for me) is that there have been games where what you say has not been applied.

If that's the rule, I have no issue with that - use each team seperately, and if there's a 25 cent difference, there would be a play (although SA vs. ML the play would be in different directions, SA taking the better value and ML taking the apparent worse value). Do you understand that's not what has been said, and there have been games listed that didn't work like that?


For example, can you explain how OAK would be a ML system play today? The moneyline system proj ML is

KAN -105 / OAK +105

If I undertand your definition (and since the ML system takes what appears to be the bad value), that means if I look at OAK, they would be a play if the actual ML on them was -120 (projected ML of +105 -25 cents = -120). Did you see anywhere that a consensus line would have had OAK at -120 anytime today?


Thanks,
Bart

I would agree that Oakland should not be a play. If someone else would like to confirm this, you can feel more comfortable that you understand the system and that occasional posting mistakes can occur.

[Formulawiz]

So your saying going into yesterdays games the ml system was 23-2 the last few weeks
? I must be missing something somewhere.

You sure must be missing something because everything is documented here. By the way its not 23-2, its what I posted so you need to read some of the posts.

[Formulawiz]

I would agree that Oakland should not be a play. If someone else would like to confirm this, you can feel more comfortable that you understand the system and that occasional posting mistakes can occur.

Why wouldnt OAK on the SA system be a play if the Proj ML is 149 and the ACT is -115. Can you subtract the 2 values and see its > 25 cents?????

[barts185]

Why wouldnt OAK on the SA system be a play if the Proj ML is 149 and the ACT is -115. Can you subtract the 2 values and see its > 25 cents?????

I can see how OAK is a play on the SA system.


You said that OAK was a play on the ML system. The question I posted was asking how they could be a play on the ML system.


Can you explain how OAK are a play on the ML system?

Thanks,
Bart

[EXhoosier10]

Todays ML plays based on early lines

HOU, PHI, NYY, BOS, OAK

Why wouldnt OAK on the SA system be a play if the Proj ML is 149 and the ACT is -115. Can you subtract the 2 values and see its > 25 cents?????

You didn't say SA.

[Formulawiz]

I can see how OAK is a play on the SA system.


You said that OAK was a play on the ML system. The question I posted was asking how they could be a play on the ML system.


Can you explain how OAK are a play on the ML system?

Thanks,
Bart

You still dont get it. OAK was a play this morning using the ML system. Cant you see the opening line had them at -120, thats the criteria for the 25 cent overlay. Do you understand the plays are based on early lines and its your responsibility is to follow through on your own before the game starts.

[EXhoosier10]

Results for 7/18 are (at least by my count):
ML (Nyy-W, Bos-L, Hou-L)
1-2 ... -1.85u

TPR (Tor-W, Laa-L, Bos-L)
1-2 ... -2.1u

SA (Tex-W, TB-L, SD-W, Oak-W, Mil-L, Cin-L)
3-3 ... +0.00u

[barts185]

You still dont get it. OAK was a play this morning using the ML system. Cant you see the opening line had them at -120, thats the criteria for the 25 cent overlay. Do you understand the plays are based on early lines and its your responsibility is to follow through on your own before the game starts.

So you're saying that the consensus line for OAK was -120 at some point?

Okay, I'm beginning to understand.


betED Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 8:10:12 PM -105 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 10:00:10 AM -105 9.5u -120
07/18/10 10:30:10 AM -105 9.5u -115
07/18/10 1:10:10 PM -105 9.5 -110
Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 2:36:24 PM 102 (Open) OFF
07/17/10 4:46:26 PM 102 9o -113 (Open)
07/17/10 5:16:27 PM 102 9o -123
07/17/10 7:46:24 PM 102 9o -120
07/18/10 5:36:23 AM 102 9o -118
07/18/10 9:06:23 AM 102 9o -124
07/18/10 9:56:23 AM -103 9o -124
07/18/10 10:06:24 AM -104 9o -124
07/18/10 10:16:24 AM -104 9.5 -105
07/18/10 11:06:24 AM -105 9.5u -106
07/18/10 11:16:23 AM -105 9.5o -106
07/18/10 12:06:24 PM -108 9.5o -106
07/18/10 12:36:24 PM -109 9.5o -106
07/18/10 12:46:23 PM -109 9.5o -107
07/18/10 1:06:23 PM -109 9.5o -111
Logans Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 3:35:13 PM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 8:25:08 AM -105 9o -120
07/18/10 8:45:16 AM 100 9o -120
07/18/10 10:05:09 AM 100 9o -125
07/18/10 10:15:10 AM -105 9o -125
07/18/10 10:25:08 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 10:35:08 AM -105 9.5u -115
5Dimes Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 8:47:43 PM -101 (Open) 9o -125 (Open)
07/17/10 9:27:43 PM -102 9o -125
07/18/10 12:17:44 AM -101 9o -125
07/18/10 3:47:43 AM 100 9o -125
07/18/10 5:47:43 AM 101 9o -125
07/18/10 6:17:43 AM 101 9o -120
07/18/10 7:47:43 AM -105 9o -120
07/18/10 8:37:44 AM -105 8o -187
07/18/10 8:47:46 AM -105 8.5o -155
07/18/10 9:07:47 AM -105 8.5o -165
07/18/10 9:17:46 AM -105 10.5u -153
07/18/10 9:47:48 AM -105 9.5u -115
07/18/10 10:17:44 AM -105 9o -137
07/18/10 10:27:46 AM -105 10.5u -147
07/18/10 10:47:46 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 11:27:44 AM -105 10u -130
07/18/10 11:57:46 AM -105 10.5u -146
07/18/10 1:07:49 PM -105 10.5u -140
SportsInteraction Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/18/10 4:14:01 AM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 10:13:57 AM 100 9.5u -115
07/18/10 12:13:56 PM -105 9.5u -115
Bodog Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 8:04:55 PM 100 (Open) OFF
07/18/10 10:04:54 AM -105 OFF
07/18/10 10:24:55 AM -105 9.5u -115 (Open)
07/18/10 12:44:54 PM -105 9.5 -110
Legends Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/18/10 8:33:20 AM -108 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 9:23:20 AM -108 9o -125
07/18/10 10:23:21 AM -110 9.5u -115
07/18/10 11:43:20 AM -110 9.5 -110
07/18/10 12:53:21 PM -110 9.5o -115
SPORTSBETTING Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 5:55:03 PM -105 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 10:04:59 AM -105 9.5u -120
07/18/10 10:24:59 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 12:20:00 PM -107 9.5 -110
07/18/10 12:49:59 PM -108 9.5 -110
BetJamaica Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 1:33:20 PM 105 (Open) OFF
07/17/10 1:43:21 PM 105 9o -120 (Open)
07/17/10 2:43:21 PM -102 9o -120
07/18/10 8:03:17 AM -101 9o -120
07/18/10 10:03:17 AM -104 9.5u -120
07/18/10 10:23:17 AM -104 9.5u -115
07/18/10 11:03:18 AM -105 9.5u -115
07/18/10 12:13:18 PM -108 9.5u -115
07/18/10 1:13:18 PM -108 9.5o -115
BetUS Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 10:33:13 PM -105 (Open) 9o -125 (Open)
07/18/10 5:33:12 AM -105 9o -120
07/18/10 8:43:12 AM -105 9o -125
07/18/10 9:13:12 AM -105 9.5u -115
07/18/10 10:23:12 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 11:53:12 AM -110 9.5 -110
BetOnline Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 9:18:22 PM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 8:08:23 AM -102 9o -120
07/18/10 9:08:27 AM -102 9o -125
07/18/10 9:58:26 AM -102 9.5u -115
07/18/10 10:08:28 AM -105 9.5u -115
07/18/10 10:18:26 AM -105 9.5 -110
Belmont Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 3:35:13 PM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 8:25:08 AM -105 9o -120
07/18/10 8:45:16 AM 100 9o -120
07/18/10 10:05:09 AM 100 9o -125
07/18/10 10:15:11 AM -105 9o -125
07/18/10 10:25:08 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 10:35:08 AM -105 9.5u -115
BookMaker Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 1:35:11 PM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/17/10 11:45:10 PM -102 9o -120
07/18/10 10:15:11 AM -105 9.5u -120
07/18/10 10:25:10 AM -104 9.5u -120
07/18/10 10:35:10 AM -104 9.5u -115
07/18/10 12:25:10 PM -106 9.5u -115
07/18/10 12:35:10 PM -106 9.5 -110
Brobury Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 3:35:13 PM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 8:25:08 AM -105 9o -120
07/18/10 8:45:16 AM 100 9o -120
07/18/10 10:05:09 AM 100 9o -125
07/18/10 10:15:11 AM -105 9o -125
07/18/10 10:25:08 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 10:35:08 AM -105 9.5u -115
SBGGLOBAL.com Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 8:34:59 PM 100 (Open) 9u -125 (Open)
07/18/10 10:05:00 AM -105 9.5o -120
07/18/10 10:24:59 AM -105 9.5o -115
07/18/10 12:54:59 PM -105 9.5 -110
JustBet Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/18/10 9:04:00 AM -102 (Open) 9u -125 (Open)
07/18/10 10:03:56 AM -104 9u -130
07/18/10 10:23:57 AM -104 9.5 -110
07/18/10 11:03:57 AM -103 9.5 -110
07/18/10 12:13:56 PM -106 9.5 -110
07/18/10 12:33:56 PM -107 9.5 -110
07/18/10 1:03:56 PM -107 9.5u -115
BetMania Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/18/10 7:31:15 AM 100 (Open) OFF
07/18/10 7:31:16 AM 100 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 10:01:15 AM 100 9.5u -115
07/18/10 10:11:15 AM -105 9.5u -115
07/18/10 10:21:15 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 1:11:16 PM -107 9.5 -110
Vegas Odds
Las Vegas Hilton Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 7:34:38 PM 100 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 9:44:35 AM 100 9o -125
07/18/10 10:04:33 AM -105 9o -125
07/18/10 10:04:34 AM -105 9.5o 100
07/18/10 10:24:33 AM -105 9.5 -110
07/18/10 1:04:33 PM -105 9.5o -115
Mirage Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/17/10 7:35:09 PM -105 (Open) 9o -120 (Open)
07/18/10 10:05:05 AM -105 9o -125
07/18/10 10:25:05 AM -105 9o -135
07/18/10 11:45:05 AM -110 9o -135
Hard Rock Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/18/10 10:24:15 AM -105 (Open) 9.5u -115 (Open)
Planet Hollywood Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
07/18/10 10:33:37 AM -105 (Open) 9.5u -115 (Open)

[ShivaBowl]

TPR 1-2 yesterday plays later today.

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 1-3 yesterday. First losing day in quite a while. As I mentioned a while ago, Sundays are a tough day for some reason.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines
CHC, TEX