New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

ML system continues to be on fire. It went 2-0 yesterday. BOS and STL both dropped out and they would have been winners.

New system went 3-1.

Lets hope this continues for the second half of the season.

[barts185]

If anyone would like to start posting the new System Plays, go to sportrends and print it out, while its still up.

http://www.sportrends.com/team_baseball_matchup.htm

Then print out this page fore 07/11

http://www.sportrends.com/vegas.htm

We are making a ton of money with these systems, get on board and contribute.
Back tonight
BOL

Plays from 07/11 from the new scientific approach system:

SFO win
STL win
CUBS lose
BOS win
LAA lose


potential plays which were eliminated due to filters:
NYM - streak
SDP - streak
FLA - innings pitched
MIN - streak
TAM - line too high
TEX - line too high (it barely qualified with the pred ML of -274 and the closing line coming in at -248.7 on the average closing line from SBR, but still above the -175 maximum line)
NYY - line too high



Hope that everyone here has a great all-star break, and I'll see you in the new thread after the all-star break.

As I said before, I wish everyone here all the best of luck, and if you ever figure out why some of the plays are plays (STL was a moneyline play on 07/11 based on early lines? REALLY?), that would be great.


Take Care,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

Plays from 07/11 from the new scientific approach system:

SFO win
STL win
CUBS lose
BOS win
LAA lose


potential plays which were eliminated due to filters:
NYM - streak
SDP - streak
FLA - innings pitched
MIN - streak
TAM - line too high
TEX - line too high (it barely qualified with the pred ML of -274 and the closing line coming in at -248.7 on the average closing line from SBR, but still above the -175 maximum line)
NYY - line too high



Hope that everyone here has a great all-star break, and I'll see you in the new thread after the all-star break.

As I said before, I wish everyone here all the best of luck, and if you ever figure out why some of the plays are plays (STL was a moneyline play on 07/11 based on early lines? REALLY?), that would be great.


Take Care,
Bart

Why would LAA be a new system play, when the majority of casinos had LAA as at least a -115 FAV and the Proj ML was LAA -134. Where is the 25 cent overlay. Your help would be appreciated but you need to get the games and W/L records correct.

[barts185]

Why would LAA be a new system play, when the majority of casinos had LAA as at least a -115 FAV and the Proj ML was LAA -134. Where is the 25 cent overlay. Your help would be appreciated but you need to get the games and W/L records correct.

First, not sure where you see that "the majority of casinos had LAA as at least a -115" favorite:


From here at SBR, listing the lines for LAA

-111
-118
-114
-116
-113
-111
-110
-110
-112
-110


So, 2 out of 10 had the line at -115 or higher, not sure how that counts as a majority.


Looking at scores and odds (the site sportrends shows if you click on Vegas Oddsm click on yesterday to see the lines from yesterday), they show:
Open LAA -115 Line movements -115/110 and Current LAA -111.




Now, on to the next point:

"the Proj ML was LAA -134"


Not sure how you get a pred ML on the new system of LAA -134 since the system always lists the home team. If you could explain that, it might remove some of the ambiguity around why you have some teams listed.


What I showed was that the pred ML for the new system was OAK +131. Does anyone have something different? Did I copy the line incorrectly?


Here's what SBR is listing as the lines for OAK

+105
-102
+104
-104
+103
+101
+100
-110
+102
+100

Average +100 (technically -100.1 if you are looking to be precise).

Since we are looking for a difference of 25 cents, anything that comes out to OAK +106 or worse would make it a play on LAA.

If this isn't clear, or I have something incorrect, please explain where I am incorrect.

Thanks,
Bart

[EXhoosier10]

"

[Formulawiz]

First, not sure where you see that "the majority of casinos had LAA as at least a -115" favorite:


From here at SBR, listing the lines for LAA

-111
-118
-114
-116
-113
-111
-110
-110
-112
-110


So, 2 out of 10 had the line at -115 or higher, not sure how that counts as a majority.


Looking at scores and odds (the site sportrends shows if you click on Vegas Oddsm click on yesterday to see the lines from yesterday), they show:
Open LAA -115 Line movements -115/110 and Current LAA -111.




Now, on to the next point:

"the Proj ML was LAA -134"


Not sure how you get a pred ML on the new system of LAA -134 since the system always lists the home team. If you could explain that, it might remove some of the ambiguity around why you have some teams listed.


What I showed was that the pred ML for the new system was OAK +131. Does anyone have something different? Did I copy the line incorrectly?


Here's what SBR is listing as the lines for OAK

+105
-102
+104
-104
+103
+101
+100
-110
+102
+100

Average +100 (technically -100.1 if you are looking to be precise).

Since we are looking for a difference of 25 cents, anything that comes out to OAK +106 or worse would make it a play on LAA.

If this isn't clear, or I have something incorrect, please explain where I am incorrect.

Thanks,
Bart

You need to look at the lines 15 to 20 minutes before the games start on SBR. The line was already moving. Look at the majority of lines right now which are the closing lines and close to the time you should be looking. Your looking at OAK when you should be looking at LAA. I dont care about OAK you always look at the FAV and thats what is important. Lets get it straight

[EXhoosier10]

You need to look at the lines 15 to 20 minutes before the games start on SBR. The line was already moving. Look at the majority of lines right now which are the closing lines and close to the time you should be looking. Your looking at OAK when you should be looking at LAA. I dont care about OAK you always look at the FAV and thats what is important. Lets get it straight

Are you blind or just stupid?

Pinnacle:
11-Jul 12:58pm LAA-106 OAK+100
11-Jul 1:29pm LAA-107 OAK+101
11-Jul 1:32pm LAA-107 OAK+101
11-Jul 2:11pm LAA-107 OAK+101
11-Jul 2:18pm LAA-107 OAK+101
11-Jul 2:38pm LAA-108 OAK+102
11-Jul 3:52pm LAA-108 OAK+102
11-Jul 3:56pm LAA-110 OAK+104
11-Jul 3:57pm LAA-110 OAK+104
11-Jul 4:00pm LAA-110 OAK+104
11-Jul 4:01pm LAA-110 OAK+104
11-Jul 4:04pm LAA-111 OAK+105
11-Jul 4:06pm LAA-111 OAK+105

Sportsbook:
11-Jul 9:11am LAA-110 OAKEVEN
11-Jul 11:44am LAA-110 OAKEVEN
11-Jul 12:07pm LAA-110 OAKEVEN
11-Jul 3:58pm LAA-111 OAK+101
11-Jul 4:01pm LAA-111 OAK+101

That's still not -115. 15-20 minutes before the game starts. How does it feel to know that you are touting what seems to be a winning system yet you still fail?

[Formulawiz]

First, not sure where you see that "the majority of casinos had LAA as at least a -115" favorite:


From here at SBR, listing the lines for LAA

-111
-118
-114
-116
-113
-111
-110
-110
-112
-110


So, 2 out of 10 had the line at -115 or higher, not sure how that counts as a majority.


Looking at scores and odds (the site sportrends shows if you click on Vegas Oddsm click on yesterday to see the lines from yesterday), they show:
Open LAA -115 Line movements -115/110 and Current LAA -111.




Now, on to the next point:

"the Proj ML was LAA -134"


Not sure how you get a pred ML on the new system of LAA -134 since the system always lists the home team. If you could explain that, it might remove some of the ambiguity around why you have some teams listed.


What I showed was that the pred ML for the new system was OAK +131. Does anyone have something different? Did I copy the line incorrectly?


Here's what SBR is listing as the lines for OAK

+105
-102
+104
-104
+103
+101
+100
-110
+102
+100

Average +100 (technically -100.1 if you are looking to be precise).

Since we are looking for a difference of 25 cents, anything that comes out to OAK +106 or worse would make it a play on LAA.

If this isn't clear, or I have something incorrect, please explain where I am incorrect.

Thanks,
Bart

Bart, it looks like you dont understand the ML. A positive number means the road team is the fav. So if your looking at the home team they must be a dog. Therefore Ill go along with you when you say the Majority ML for LAA is 1.11. I dont agree it was higher. But Ill go along with your thinking. If you add 25 cent to 1.11 you get 1.36 which is greater then 1.34, the proj line and therefore there is no play. For LAA to have been a play LAA would have to be 1.09 or less.

[HoulihansTX]

I think if people have a problem with how Formula works this system, they should hurry and make the new thread.

I know I would not know of the system without Formula's thread, and constant posting.

I dont think Formula is being a snob with the way he works the system, but he just interprets differently.

Everyone is talking in circles, and those who disagree with the way he works it, just make the new thread. And let it be.

[barts185]

Bart, it looks like you dont understand the ML. A positive number means the road team is the fav. So if your looking at the home team they must be a dog. Therefore Ill go along with you when you say the Majority ML for LAA is 1.11. I dont agree it was higher. But Ill go along with your thinking. If you add 25 cent to 1.11 you get 1.36 which is greater then 1.34, the proj line and therefore there is no play. For LAA to have been a play LAA would have to be 1.09 or less.

Formulawiz

It's possible (even likley) I don't understand all aspects of the ML system. Anyone reading through the thread can see I've tried to get you to explain it, only to be ignored, or get "here are the plays, figure it out yourself" as a response.


To follow up on this response - so even though the system always lists the home team and their odds, the system ONLY uses the favorite when determining who is the play?


Even with that, I don't understand how you get LAA -134 as the pred ML when the pred ML was OAK +131. Again, if I copied that line incorrectly, I'd appreciate anyone saying that they have a different line. If not, I'd appreciate knowing how OAK +131 translates into LAA -134.



HoulihansTX

I also wouldn't know about the system if not for Formula, which is why I've tried to get responses that would let me figure out the plays, instead of seeing something the morning after which says (using this as an example, has nothing to do with any particular day) "The system went 3-1." when I can't figure out from any posts which actually talk about the system how the 4 teams listed were plays. And that's when I can even figure out which teams were listed. There are days where he comes up with a number that doesn't make any sense to me. Or lists teams on early lines that don't fit anything which has been published about the system. But, alll I get is "these are the plays, figure it out."


In terms of being a snob about the system, not sure how else you can interpret it. He refuses to say how he comes up with certain plays. He refuses to even list which teams were plays many days. If I started posting a daily thread and just said, "I went 3-1 yesterday." but never said what the plays were, not sure if that is being a snob, but it sure isn't being helpful to anyone wanting to be able to actually clarify the plays and figure out what they are beforehand.

Take Care,
Bart


I'm going to be out most of the rest of today, so might not be able to respond, but would like to continue the discussion.

[HoulihansTX]

understood.

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz

It's possible (even likley) I don't understand all aspects of the ML system. Anyone reading through the thread can see I've tried to get you to explain it, only to be ignored, or get "here are the plays, figure it out yourself" as a response.


To follow up on this response - so even though the system always lists the home team and their odds, the system ONLY uses the favorite when determining who is the play?


Even with that, I don't understand how you get LAA -134 as the pred ML when the pred ML was OAK +131. Again, if I copied that line incorrectly, I'd appreciate anyone saying that they have a different line. If not, I'd appreciate knowing how OAK +131 translates into LAA -134.



HoulihansTX

I also wouldn't know about the system if not for Formula, which is why I've tried to get responses that would let me figure out the plays, instead of seeing something the morning after which says (using this as an example, has nothing to do with any particular day) "The system went 3-1." when I can't figure out from any posts which actually talk about the system how the 4 teams listed were plays. And that's when I can even figure out which teams were listed. There are days where he comes up with a number that doesn't make any sense to me. Or lists teams on early lines that don't fit anything which has been published about the system. But, alll I get is "these are the plays, figure it out."


In terms of being a snob about the system, not sure how else you can interpret it. He refuses to say how he comes up with certain plays. He refuses to even list which teams were plays many days. If I started posting a daily thread and just said, "I went 3-1 yesterday." but never said what the plays were, not sure if that is being a snob, but it sure isn't being helpful to anyone wanting to be able to actually clarify the plays and figure out what they are beforehand.

Take Care,
Bart


I'm going to be out most of the rest of today, so might not be able to respond, but would like to continue the discussion.

Look I am not trying to be hard on anyone but the system is very simple to use. You compare the proj ML to the FAV whether the FAV is at home or on the road. I cant explain it any easier.
Then you determine if there is a 25 cent overlay to make your play. Again I stress to use the lines where the majority of the casino are in agreement and not just your gambling house and it has to be 15 to 20 minutes prior to start of game.

[EXhoosier10]

Look I am not trying to be hard on anyone but the system is very simple to use. You compare the proj ML to the FAV whether the FAV is at home or on the road. I cant explain it any easier.
Then you determine if there is a 25 cent overlay to make your play. Again I stress to use the lines where the majority of the casino are in agreement and not just your gambling house and it has to be 15 to 20 minutes prior to start of game.

Post every play instead of stating the records. If you have the record of 4-1 or 3-0, you have to know the teams too, so just post the correct plays and it will be a lot easier to learn how this system works

[ShivaBowl]

If anyone would like to start posting the new System Plays, go to sportrends and print it out, while its still up. http://www.sportrends.com/team_baseball_matchup.htm Then print out this page fore 07/11 http://www.sportrends.com/vegas.htm We are making a ton of money with these systems, get on board and contribute. You can PM me if you don’t want to post? Here, back tonight. BOL

I prefer if you print these lines, http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds/20100711.aspx
but I don’t care the above lines were going to be used as an example.

[ShivaBowl]

"

[Formulawiz]

Post every play instead of stating the records. If you have the record of 4-1 or 3-0, you have to know the teams too, so just post the correct plays and it will be a lot easier to learn how this system works

In the morning plays are posted based on early lines, so it gives you a good idea whats in play. Obviously I cant give you concrete plays set in stone because lines move and sometimes drastically. I am not going to sit around in the evening just to babysit you. I only have 15 minutes to make my own plays. You should have enough smarts to understand how both systems work and both our plays should coincide. This is not rocket science. Your the only one who continualy complains. It is obvious to me you dont understand these systems due to the fact you made your play yesterday looking at OAK rather then LAA.

Here are the plays for last night based on the ML system, PHI, LAD
Here are the plays for the new system, SF, STL, CHC, BOS

If you cant understand why these are the plays then you need to follow another system and thread.

[EXhoosier10]

In the morning plays are posted based on early lines, so it gives you a good idea whats in play. Obviously I cant give you concrete plays set in stone because lines move and sometimes drastically. I am not going to sit around in the evening just to babysit you. I only have 15 minutes to make my own plays. You should have enough smarts to understand how both systems work and both our plays should coincide. This is not rocket science. Your the only one who continualy complains. It is obvious to me you dont understand these systems due to the fact you made your play yesterday looking at OAK rather then LAA.

Here are the plays for last night based on the ML system, PHI, LAD
Here are the plays for the new system, SF, STL, CHC, BOS

If you cant understand why these are the plays then you need to follow another system and thread.

Was it that hard? instead of writing "new system 4-0", write "new system 4-0: SF, STL, ChC, Bos"

[ShivaBowl]

Originally Posted by barts185
Plays from 07/11 from the new scientific approach system:

SFO win
STL win
CUBS lose
BOS win
LAA lose


potential plays which were eliminated due to filters:
NYM - streak
SDP - streak
FLA - innings pitched
MIN - streak
TAM - line too high
TEX - line too high (it barely qualified with the pred ML of -274 and the closing line coming in at -248.7 on the average closing line from SBR, but still above the -175 maximum line)
NYY - line too high

Bart The New System Had LAA -131 not -134 and the M/L system had OAK-115 7/11 and SFG was not a play due to IP.
But a good job, why not post the early line plays for the new system, you seem to have it down?

[EXhoosier10]

Originally Posted by barts185
Plays from 07/11 from the new scientific approach system:

SFO win
STL win
CUBS lose
BOS win
LAA lose


potential plays which were eliminated due to filters:
NYM - streak
SDP - streak
FLA - innings pitched
MIN - streak
TAM - line too high
TEX - line too high (it barely qualified with the pred ML of -274 and the closing line coming in at -248.7 on the average closing line from SBR, but still above the -175 maximum line)
NYY - line too high

Bart The New System Had LAA -131 not -134 and the M/L system had OAK-115 7/11 and SFG was not a play due to IP.
But a good job, why not post the early line plays for the new system, you seem to have it down?

Bumgarner had 22 IP, so there was a play on SF

[ShivaBowl]

Originally Posted by ShivaBowl 07-11-10, 12:38 PM
New System Plays, based on early lines. STL CUBS BOS out TOR IP Mets out lost 3 SDP out lost 2 Minn out lost 4 Any input about these plays?
Tks

EXhoosier10
I asked for some input about these plays, were where you then?
You are the only one, who continualy complains and bust balls, but could be a big help with late line moves.
Please start contributing or move on, I have.

WIZ, thanks for your early M/L System plays and a great year with MLB= $$$$.

[hoop22]

good luck guys

[dreamjob]

interesting thread good luck guys

[IrishTim]

Interesting thread indeed, dreamjob. I'd be curious to know how this works out in the second half of the season.

[barts185]

[quote=ShivaBowl]
Bart The New System Had LAA -131 not -134 and the M/L system had OAK-115 7/11 [/quote]


And yet Formula more than once has told me that the line was LAA -134.

Then he says (for the first time I can find ANYWHERE, despite having asked MANY times), that the favorite is the only side which is used in determining a play even though the home team is always the team listed by the system.

SFG was not a play due to IP.

In the SFG / WAS game on 07/11

SFG starter Bumgarner had previously pitched 22 innings.
WAS starter Hernandez had previously pitched 112 2/3 innings.

Which of these makes it not a play?

Take Care,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

I went back to 7/5 and found the folowing Win/Loss records for both the ML system and New Scientific system (SS). I went back to 7/5 because thats when I started following the SS System.

ML - 20W - 2L 90.9%
SS - 22W - 12L 64.7%

Lets hope this continues for the second half of the season.

[ShivaBowl]

Bart,
The hell with SFG I did not have them as an early line play.

Lets get back to LAA using the new System.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS Jered Weaver R
0.85 5.50 4.6 1.31
OAKLAND ATHLETICS Trevor Cahill R
0.84 4.68 4.0

New System Pred M/L 1.31
New System has LAA favored over OAK
My opening line of LAA -110

I could see you having a play if LAA Pred M/L was 134
and my opening line was LAA -109 But LAA was 1.31
Ok ?
So the way I see it is you have the New System down.
Are you, going to start posting the early plays?
BOL

[Joe Dogs]

Just my two cents....I think it would be a good idea to use a mutual consensuses of books to base finale plays on.....Maybe come to an agreement of say 6 books listed at SBR to base finale plays upon.....This would clear up some of the play or no play confusion.

I was also under the impression that the LA Angels were a play using the new system criteria

[ShivaBowl]

Just my two cents....I think it would be a good idea to use a mutual consensuses of books to base finale plays on.....Maybe come to an agreement of say 6 books listed at SBR to base finale plays upon.....This would clear up some of the play or no play confusion. I was also under the impression that the LA Angels were a play using the new system criteria

Way was LAA play on 07/11 with the new System?
I am doing early line plays things change from 10am to 7pm
I am using SBR frist page from now on with my early line plays.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds/20100711.aspx

BOL

[Joe Dogs]

Heres the numbers I had for that particular play LA Angels
Oak A,s +131<25.> Even or 100
Sportrends is telling you this is $1.31 dog and not even $$$....Value is on the Angeles.....The way I see it LAA were the play.

[Joe Dogs]

Shivabowl

I personally have my front page on SBR set up with books I use or the books I consider sharp Pinny,Bet Criss,Greek etc
I dont know if everyone knows you can move the books around on your SBR ODDS...I usually keep every thing I monitor
on the front page.....Easy to watch line moves this way.

[ShivaBowl]

Heres the numbers I had for that particular play LA Angels Oak A,s +131<25.> Even or 100 Sportrends is telling you this is $1.31 dog and not even $$$....Value is on the Angeles.....The way I see it LAA were the play.

Thanks Joe, your on the right track.
Sportrends was telling you that they had LAA as a 1.31 favored over OAK.
Play was on LAA or nothing.
I think your comparing the New System with The Money Line System don`t do that.
Thanks, BOL

[HoulihansTX]

Shivabowl I personally have my front page on SBR set up with books I use or the books I consider sharp Pinny,Bet Criss,Greek etc I dont know if everyone knows you can move the books around on your SBR ODDS...I usually keep every thing I monitor on the front page.....Easy to watch line moves this way.

The Greek has to be excluded. They deal 20 cent lines, which when compared to 5Dimes(8cent overnights) Pinnacle(true 10cent lines), Matchbook(8cent lines), The Hilton(10 cent lines), are horrible to bet into. They may set the openers, but afterwards they are useless.


I use Show Me The Odds .com. It has real time odds from all major sportbooks, and its has Las Vegas books also. Thats how I'm able to see what The Hilton has in real time.

[staingb]

new here...
... very interesting thread...
... gl

[Formulawiz]

Heres the numbers I had for that particular play LA Angels
Oak A,s +131<25.> Even or 100
Sportrends is telling you this is $1.31 dog and not even $$$....Value is on the Angeles.....The way I see it LAA were the play.

Your definitely confusing the ML system with the New system. The ML system had a play on LAA while the new system had no play.

[madness]

Hey Barts,

I think you are having your primary confusion with the way sportrends sets the lines on their systems. I believe they list a number next to the home team. so if you see a -145 next to the home team than they are projected to be a -145 favorite, but conversely if it says +145 next to the home team, that simply means the away team is a -145 favorite. Then you use the .25 cents of value test