WIZ, WE ARE ON FIRE>>>>>> 
GL
GL
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TPR System went 2-0 yesterday. 6-1 past 3 days.
+$635.00
TPR Plays later todayComment -
Your correct we are on fire. ML system went 1-0 yesterday and a winner dropped out.
New system went 4-0 and depending on the TB line you went 5-0
ML plays laterComment -
ML plays today based on early lines
COL, CWS, NYYComment -
Wiz., I have been tracking your plays with the new system, off next week, will work on it.
GLComment -
I have the PROJ ML being Col -130 and the close at -105. So play would be on StL, however Col is on a 2 game win streak, which nullifies the play.
And I don't understand what the team baseball matchup is telling us to play. Are we supposed to play the 25 cents in the opposite direction like the moneyline system, or the one where a -130 line is actually +110 yet also has the team predicted to score more runs? I guess I can easily get excel to track both. I'll see what I can do today in regards to building some excel stuff to track.
What were the plays?
Why are you posting results with this system, without the plays?
Thanks, BOL
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Shiva, did you buy the software? Formula has asked that I don't post the software plays in here, even after the plays happened. If anyone wants to see my accounting, please feel free to ask as I have every play and non-play from the BB (30 days, 60, and year to date) as well as PT (30 and 60 days) in a single spreadsheet to track throughout the seasonComment -
TPR PLAYS 07/08
NYY if <175
TEX if <175
Complimentary Selection for 7/8/2010
MLB Take Florida W/Sanchez over Arizona W/Lopez NO PLAY if > -175Comment -
Here are the new system plays for today using the filters in place and early lines. I will only do it for today and hopefully someone else can take it over.
SF, CIN, FLA, NYY
If someone has anything different let me know.Comment -
All I'm looking at here is team predicted runs, right? And which team do i make the play on after the 25cent difference? for example,
Team A PRED ML (+130)...Actual ML (-110)... Team predicted run difference (+1). Do I play team A? what about this one,
Team B PRED ML (+130)...Actual ML (+160)... Team predicted run difference (+1). Do I play team B?Comment -
You're right. I'm just getting confused between the ML system being one way and the new system being the other way. Sorry. Although I still think the SDG/WAS game qualifies on both systems for opposite teams, so not sure how the new system went 4-0 or 5-0 since SDG was a loser.
The new system apparently is unlike the moneyline system. The moneyline system is the opposite direction. The new system is the same direction. At least that's what it seems like based on the plays.Comment -
My $0.02:
Presuming that all other filters are met and using the PRED ML as though that's what is listed on the different pages for the relevant system:
Team A PRED ML (+130)...Actual ML (-110)... Team predicted run difference (+1). Do I play team A?
On the ML system, Yes.
On the TPR system, Yes.
On the new system, No. If anything, play would be on the opposite team.
Team B PRED ML (+130)...Actual ML (+160)... Team predicted run difference (+1). Do I play team B?
On the ML system, No. If anything, play would be on the opposite team.
On the TPR system, Yes.
On the new systen, Yes.Comment -
I talked with Sam from Sportrends, he is working on the new system, and IE; putting up a new example and rewriting some of it, to help us better understand it.
GL
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I would just add that the line on TOR is dropping. If the line drops to TOR -111 or lower, TOR would be a play.
I have no problem posting the plays from the new system once I'm sure I understand it.
Every so often, I still see plays listed where I have no idea how it could be a play, so I'm just still not sure that I understand everything. For example, CUBS was listed as a play on the moneyline system with early lines yesterday (07/07). I have no idea how that could be a play with the proj ML at ARI -110 and the actual moneyline ARI anywhere from +105 to -105 all day. Never came near 25 cents as far as I could tell.
Take Care,
BartComment -
I spoke to sportrends this morning about their new system and that it was confusing. They said they would have an explanation and example tomorrow morning. They also said I was correct in the way I interpreted the plays. So at least I was on the right track with the proper games.Comment -
ML looks to be 2-0 today with ChW and Hou winning early. Using closing lines, the ML system has gone 13-6 for a profit of 6.65units since July 4. Lots of favorites have been winning as of late, so it's hard to say if this trend will continue, but for now, it's working. Formula, do you have any results from earlier this season?Comment -
New Scientific System
xxx
Comment -
TPR System went 1-0 yesterday. 7-1 past 4 days.
+$735.00
TPR Plays later todayComment -
The way I interpret this, is that we need both factors, to consider it a play????
When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent Differential or Overlay. We can also handicap using the Team Predicted Runs in which a team has at least 1 run differential.
This no longer applies.
Thanks Bart
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ML system is still hot 2-0 yesterday.
New system went 2-2
ML plays later todayComment -
Bart give me your three M/L plays for yesterday. thanks
I have NYY no play if <-165 Win N/P
CWS no play if <-125 Play Win
COL no play if <-120 Play WinComment -
"Comment -
Originally Posted by ShivaBowl
Bart give me your three M/L plays for yesterday. thanks
I have NYY no play if <-165 Win N/P
CWS no play if <-125 Play Win
COL no play if <-120 Play Win
Shiva, Yankees didnt' have enough line movement. N/P. Rockies didn't either. THey needed to be -145, and they weren't. Houston was the other play to go 2-0. Does my spreadsheet have any errors?
No I don't, good work.
CWS WIN -125 and over
HOU WIN -160 and over
COL N/P
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xxxComment -
TPR PLAYS 07/09
NYY if <-175
COL if <-175
TEX if <-175
STL out lost 3
BOS out lost 4
if <-175. If your line is under -175 it`s a Play
Comp 7/9/2010
Take Colorado W/De LA Rosa over San Diego W/Correia NO PLAY if < -135 or > -175
FYI. COL, is a nice play today, if the line holds above -135 and stays under -175
Thanks EX
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Well here it is,
- When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent Differential or Overlay.
- Make sure a pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
- Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
- Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
- Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
- Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.
A money line of (-1.25) indicates the Home team is a favorite, while a (1.25) indicates the Road team is a favorite. As an example, suppose WAS at home is facing the NYM's and the Predicted ML is 2.25. This indicates the NYM's are an overwhelming favorite at 2.25. Now suppose the Actual or Offshore casino's ML for the NYM's is 1.50. This tells us that the NYM's are a Road favorite having good value since we only have to lay 1.50. To see if there is a play we need to subtract the actual ML of 1.50 from the predicted ML 2.25 which gives us a differential of 75 cents which greater then the 25 cent overlay required. Therefore, the NYM's becomes our play. Of course the opposite scenario applies.Comment -
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Here is what I came up with for yesterday (07/08/10)
ML plays:
HOU proj -135 actual -173
CWS proj 100 actual -128
COL proj -120 went from no play to play to no play as the line moved above -145 and then back down (I have it closing at -141 on the sbr lines). So, no play.
TPR plays:
NYY actual line -159
New system plays
SFG pred MIL +224 actual MIL -118
CIN pred PHI +186 actual PHI +102
FLA pred ARI +206 actual ARI +101 (removed bodog at -130 as an obvious off line, if you include that, actual goes to -101)
NYY pred SEA +193 actual SEA +144
TOR got close to being a play during the day, but then the line went back up, so no play.
Take Care,
BartComment -
New M/L Plays
Its not that hard, just time consuming, but I don't have the software, if the software helps cut the time off, this system let me know, please?
Here is one play from yesterdays card that was left out because,
SDP lost last 2
Close SDP -160
Pred M/L SDP 198
198 -160 = 38
? anyone come up with the same thingComment -
They have not updated the screen for the New System. They have the explanation, but its a day late with the matchups.Comment -
SDP losing last two means they are not a play.
The software has nothing to do with these systems. The software comes up with 2 different sets of plays which have nothing to do with the ML plays, the TPR plays or the new system plays.
The plays which the software comes up with are the Best Bet plays and the Pythagorem Theorem plays.
So, there are 5 different systems / plays which get mentioned in this thread right now. All presume that filters are met.
From the site, publicly posted:
1) The ML plays - go opposite the side that the value indicates.
2) The TPR (Team Projected Run) plays - look for values 1 and higher or -1 and lower.
3) The new system plays - go with the side that the value indicates.
From the software, not to be posted publicly, or even talked about after the games are over:
4) The Best Bets
5) The Pythagorem Theorem
In case anyone isn't clear, as far as I can tell, the filters are as follows for the public systems:
1) For the ML wagers, 25 cent difference. I'm still confused as to whether or not the home team is the only team to be considered when coming up with the 25 cent difference. From some posts, it seems that this is NOT the case, but it's never been totally clarified for reasons that I can't begin to fathom, unless someone wants there to be doubt about when certain games are a play or not. For example, if the proj ML on the home team is -125, I thought that meant that the line would have to be -150 for a play to be considered on the road team. There have been games listed which would indicate that this is not the case, but never clarified other than saying it was a play and should be able to figure it out.
2) Each pitcher must have pitched 20 innings. There is confusion as to whether this means both pitchers in a game, or only the pitcher on which we are wagering. My interpretation was that both pitchers in a game needed to have 20 innings pitched, but some results which have been listed indicate that only the pitcher on which we are wagering needs to have 20 innings pitched.
3) Don't lay more than -175.
4) Don't bet on a team that is on a 2 game or longer losing streak.
5) Don't bet against a team that is on a 2 game or longer winning streak.
6) Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game. Long distance has never been defined.
Hope this helps clear things up (at least somewhat).Comment -
New M/L Plays
Its not that hard, just time consuming, but I don't have the software, if the software helps cut the time off, this system let me know, please?
Here is one play from yesterdays card that was left out because,
SDP lost last 2
Close SDP -160
Pred M/L SDP 198
198 -160 = 38
? anyone come up with the same thing
You did not answer my ? please read my post again.
I'm talking about way SDP was left out of yesterdays NEW M/L SYSTEM PLAYS.
I know they lost two.
If not they would have been a play.
Thanks, for the software info.Comment -
xxx
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1) ML System- "EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent."
This shows that we are playing the teams that we are technically getting lesss "value" on. ANd The boston part of the example shows that we do play teams other than home teams.
2) "Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings."Comment
