New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

ML plays based on early lines

MIN, TB, NYY

New system plays

SD, PIT, STL, FLA, MIN, TB, NYY, KC

[HoulihansTX]

I cant find the link to the new system. Also How does it work?

I have no problem contributing.

Shiva does TPR, I the "New" system, and you ML. Sounds like a collaboration.

[EXhoosier10]

ML system went 3-0 yesterday. There seems to be alot of confusion. These are yesterdays plays. I would appreciate if you guys would let me post the win/loss records. I use the closing lines found the next morning which are always the lines 15-20 minutes before the games start.

CWS, TB, NYY.

Secondly the new system went 3-1 yesterday. As a matter of fact I called sportrends yesterday to find out when this system was posted and they told me a few weeks ago. They also indicated the system was on fire. I also asked about the CIN game which had a change of pitching and they indicated CIN was a play which was another winner.

I am asking if one of you guys would help out posting the new system plays
I will list them today along with the ML plays.

Will you post the units then? It's not that difficult. You have the correct line. Spend 30 seconds more to make tracking this system useful

[Formulawiz]

I cant find the link to the new system. Also How does it work?

I have no problem contributing.

Shiva does TPR, I the "New" system, and you ML. Sounds like a collaboration.

Here is the link. Check my plays against yours.

http://www.sportrends.com/team_baseball_matchup.htm

[HoulihansTX]

I see the page, but there is no breakdown of what the numbers represent in the "Team predicted ML" column.

Also, what do the numbers in the other columns indicate. I see nothing stating what indicates a play.

thank you.

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 2-1 yesterday 07/05.
Boston
NYY
KC
+ $195.00

[ShivaBowl]

Tpr 07/06

DET if <-175
NYY if <-175 *R/F
KC *R/F

* R/F ROAD FAVORED


Boston No Play Doubront, IP under 20

DET no play if the line is over -175
NYY no play if the line is over -175

Complimentary Selection for 7/6/2010

MLB Take Tampa Bay W/Niemann over Boston W/Doubront NO PLAY if < -145 or > -175

[Formulawiz]

I see the page, but there is no breakdown of what the numbers represent in the "Team predicted ML" column.

Also, what do the numbers in the other columns indicate. I see nothing stating what indicates a play.

thank you.

I believe you take the predicted ML and subtract from the actual line. If there is a .25 cent diff then depending on which side of the actual ML it falls, it becomes a play. Check the teams I posted and see if you agree.
Sportrends gives you the numbers and you have to do the math.

[barts185]

I believe you take the predicted ML and subtract from the actual line. If there is a .25 cent diff then depending on which side of the actual ML it falls, it becomes a play. Check the teams I posted and see if you agree.
Sportrends gives you the numbers and you have to do the math.

And, unlike the ML plays, in this one, it's when the ML is off in the direction which indicates which side has the value (as opposed to the value showing that the play should be on the other side) ?

That's sounds convoluted, so to give an example.

STL / COL game

Pred ML is COL -107

Actual ML is COL -140


If this were the ML system, the play would be on COL

With this system, the play is on STL


Also, the description on the page talks about using the Team Pred Runs. Are you using that at all?

Thanks,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

And, unlike the ML plays, in this one, it's when the ML is off in the direction which indicates which side has the value (as opposed to the value showing that the play should be on the other side) ?

That's sounds convoluted, so to give an example.

STL / COL game

Pred ML is COL -107

Actual ML is COL -140


If this were the ML system, the play would be on COL

With this system, the play is on STL


Also, the description on the page talks about using the Team Pred Runs. Are you using that at all?

Thanks,
Bart

No because it looks the pred ML is based on the the team predicted runs.

[EXhoosier10]

And, unlike the ML plays, in this one, it's when the ML is off in the direction which indicates which side has the value (as opposed to the value showing that the play should be on the other side) ?

That's sounds convoluted, so to give an example.

STL / COL game

Pred ML is COL -107

Actual ML is COL -140


If this were the ML system, the play would be on COL

With this system, the play is on STL


Also, the description on the page talks about using the Team Pred Runs. Are you using that at all?

Thanks,
Bart

So what is this, a system that amkes the plays opposite of the ML system? But with a few filters?

[Formulawiz]

So what is this, a system that amkes the plays opposite of the ML system? But with a few filters?

Your not making sense. It seems both systems agree on a few games.

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 4-0 yesterday. 7-0 past 2 days. Not bad

New system went 4-4

ML Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

ML Plays based on early lines

CHC, FLA

New system plays NYM, HOU, SF, CHC, FLA

As you can see, 2 plays agree with the ML system and no plays go opposite each other. So the statement made by someone yesterday has no idea what he is talking about.

[EXhoosier10]

ML system went 4-0 yesterday. 7-0 past 2 days. Not bad

New system went 4-4

ML Plays later today

Which plays did you get to go 4-0? I have
BAL as a L,
NYY as a W,
KC as a W, and
HOU as a W
for a net gain of 2 units.
If you could please tell me which games you have that won, I'd be more than happy to go back and look at the data and see where I am wrong. Can you please list which teams were ML system plays and mine weren't?

As you can see, 2 plays agree with the ML system and no plays go opposite each other. So the statement made by someone yesterday has no idea what he is talking about.

"If this were the ML system, the play would be on COL

With this system, the play is on STL"
This implies that the systems play opposite of each other. If I'm wrong, then its my mistake of misunderstanding.



(Attached is yesterday's data for anyone else who may want to help me figure out which teams the play was on) Column A-F is from sportrends, Column I is the difference between closing line and Projected ML (Column C). J and K are their win/loss streaks. Never play on 2+ Loss or against 2+winner. L is Innings Pitched prior to game... Must have 20+ to be a play. M is plays just based on line difference. Columns O and P are the actual plays based on their streak, IP limits, and line movement. Let me know if you have any questions. I just want to get this system down right so I can start tracking it correctly. So formula, if you could please help explain to me why my plays are wrong so I can start to help this project?

[Formulawiz]

Which plays did you get to go 4-0? I have
BAL as a L,
NYY as a W,
KC as a W, and
HOU as a W
for a net gain of 2 units.
If you could please tell me which games you have that won, I'd be more than happy to go back and look at the data and see where I am wrong. Can you please list which teams were ML system plays and mine weren't?



"If this were the ML system, the play would be on COL

With this system, the play is on STL"
This implies that the systems play opposite of each other. If I'm wrong, then its my mistake of misunderstanding.



(Attached is yesterday's data for anyone else who may want to help me figure out which teams the play was on) Column A-F is from sportrends, Column I is the difference between closing line and Projected ML (Column C). J and K are their win/loss streaks. Never play on 2+ Loss or against 2+winner. L is Innings Pitched prior to game... Must have 20+ to be a play. M is plays just based on line difference. Columns O and P are the actual plays based on their streak, IP limits, and line movement. Let me know if you have any questions. I just want to get this system down right so I can start tracking it correctly. So formula, if you could please help explain to me why my plays are wrong so I can start to help this project?

Here are yesterday ML plays

MIN, TB, NYY, KC. Your correct I missed HOU and BAL, so therefore the system went 5-1 yesterday
Thanks for picking it up.

[EXhoosier10]

Here are yesterday ML plays

MIN, TB, NYY, KC. Your correct I missed HOU and BAL, so therefore the system went 5-1 yesterday
Thanks for picking it up.

TB was going against a new pitcher with <20 IP in Felix Doubront, so TB wasn't a play. Min had some late line movement, so that was where my system missed. Do you have a website that lists all of the lines 10-15 minutes before game time? Not something like Vegasinsider or Covers where I have to go to a different page and manually look, but something that can be easily seen all in a list?

[HoulihansTX]

TB was going against a new pitcher with <20 IP in Felix Doubront, so TB wasn't a play. Min had some late line movement, so that was where my system missed. Do you have a website that lists all of the lines 10-15 minutes before game time? Not something like Vegasinsider or Covers where I have to go to a different page and manually look, but something that can be easily seen all in a list?

Download Show Me The Odds .com

Its a free line service that is real time. I have used it for 9 months, and have no problems. It has been upadated many times also. Play around with it, and get the correct books listed. I use Pinny/Matchy/Greek/The Hilton/ and a couple of other personal fav books.

[Vegas Green]

Congrats on that!

[EXhoosier10]

Download Show Me The Odds .com

Downloading it right now. I guess what I was really looking for was a website where I could scrape the info and automatically pull it into excel. however, since I don't think any website tracks lines 10 minutes before game time, I'm assuming closing lines will have to work. Can I copy this data from the program at all?

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 2-0 yesterday. 4-1 past 2 days.

+395.00

TPR Plays later today

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 7/7/2010

TPR PLAYS 07/07

NYY **
KC **
**Sweep
BOS N/P lost 3
DET N/P >-175
TEX N/P >-175
Complimentary Selection for 7/7/2010

Take Houston W/Moehler over Pittsburgh W/McCutchen NO PLAY if > -175

[barts185]

ML Plays based on early lines

CHC, FLA

New system plays NYM, HOU, SF, CHC, FLA

As you can see, 2 plays agree with the ML system and no plays go opposite each other. So the statement made by someone yesterday has no idea what he is talking about.

I'm not sure why SDG / WAS isn't listed. Am I missing something? Probably.

SDG streak Win 1
WAS streak Lose 1

So, nothing should be eliminated due to streaks.

Each pitcher has more than 20 innings pitched.


ML system Proj ML 125

New system Pred ML 123

Opening line as per SBR -102
Actual ML based on average of SBR books at 8am pacific -104

On the ML system, this would be a play on WAS (projected WAS +125, actual WAS -104, value would appear to be with SDG, so we take WAS).

On the new system, this would be a play on SDG (predicted WAS +123, actual WAS -104, value would appear to be with SDG, so we take SDG).


Please show me what I am missing.

Thanks,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

TB was going against a new pitcher with <20 IP in Felix Doubront, so TB wasn't a play. Min had some late line movement, so that was where my system missed. Do you have a website that lists all of the lines 10-15 minutes before game time? Not something like Vegasinsider or Covers where I have to go to a different page and manually look, but something that can be easily seen all in a list?

The play was on TB not on BOS. If it were on BOS no play. Check out SBR for lines

[madness]

Formula,

as far as ex-hoosier saying that the 2 systems contradict each other, i simply think he means that one system says if the actual line is better than the predicted line by .25 then play the good value while the money line system will tell you to play a line that is .25 cents worse than the predetermined line....so the concept is different where you take the good value with one system while playing a worse than predicted number with the other. So it is possible for the same game to qualify for both. The key that we all truly care about is whether they win or not . I am curious what the record will be for when they both agree.

[Lazyboy311]

I just read for 15 minutes and still have no clue what is going on in here, actually just more confused, and I'm no dummy....could someone (wiz?) post a concise, definitive, summary so we can all just worry about the book?

Not trying to be a dick, just wanted to intervene and get back to the point of making $$...

[HoulihansTX]

I just read for 15 minutes and still have no clue what is going on in here, actually just more confused, and I'm no dummy....could someone (wiz?) post a concise, definitive, summary so we can all just worry about the book? Not trying to be a dick, just wanted to intervene and get back to the point of making $$...

Go to Sportrends .com All questions should be answered there

[EXhoosier10]

The play was on TB not on BOS. If it were on BOS no play. Check out SBR for lines

From http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm , it says "Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings." So TB isn't a play

[Jrod124]

Yankees are the best team

[Formulawiz]

Formula,

as far as ex-hoosier saying that the 2 systems contradict each other, i simply think he means that one system says if the actual line is better than the predicted line by .25 then play the good value while the money line system will tell you to play a line that is .25 cents worse than the predetermined line....so the concept is different where you take the good value with one system while playing a worse than predicted number with the other. So it is possible for the same game to qualify for both. The key that we all truly care about is whether they win or not . I am curious what the record will be for when they both agree.

Totally agree with what you are saying that both systems are making plays using opposite concepts. We really dont know what sportrends formulas are so there is no way to tell if these concepts are contradictive. I really dont have the time to keep a record of posting both systems.

[EXhoosier10]

Just tried posting all the BB and PT plays the past few days and for some reason it said my message was too short. Oh well. There were a couple mistakes from earlier posts and I don't feel like re-posting the changes. Here is the running tally...


Season starting 6/29
BB Filtered at -175
3-6 -5.58
PT Filtered at DOGS ONLY
2-2 +0.42[/quote]

[EXhoosier10]

7/7 ML plays should be TB, Was, Fla, right? TB closed at -175 or below or better at most books ("Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175." so it's a play)

[ShivaBowl]

Just tried posting all the BB and PT plays the past few days and for some reason it said my message was too short. Oh well. There were a couple mistakes from earlier posts and I don't feel like re-posting the changes. Here is the running tally... Season starting 6/29 BB Filtered at -175 3-6 -5.58 PT Filtered at DOGS ONLY 2-2 +0.42

[/quote]

What were the plays?
Why are you posting results with this system, without the plays?
Thanks, BOL

[barts185]

7/7 ML plays should be TB, Was, Fla, right? TB closed at -175 or below or better at most books ("Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175." so it's a play)

What do you have as the closing line for COL?

Books on the SBR screen come in at an average of -105 (-104.6) which would qualify.

Never got a response to my earlier question about WAS being an example of the 2 systems disagreeing, still feel that applies at the closing average of -102 (-102.4)

[barts185]

What were the plays?
Why are you posting results with this system, without the plays?
Thanks, BOL

I shouldn't answer for someone else, but a good guess is that these plays (BB and PT) are the results of the software. The other systems listed are posted publicly.