New Baseball Power Rating System

[ShivaBowl]

New Scientific Plays based on early lines. 7/9/2010

CIN, FLA, KC ?


? CWS on a 5 game win streak
? KC on a 3 game win streak
Lean to old M/L play CWS

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines

ATL, COL, ARI

[EXhoosier10]

Todays ML plays based on early lines

ATL, COL, ARI

[barts185]

New M/L Plays

Its not that hard, just time consuming, but I don't have the software, if the software helps cut the time off, this system let me know, please?
Here is one play from yesterdays card that was left out because,
SDP lost last 2
Close SDP -160
Pred M/L SDP 198
198 -160 = 38
? anyone come up with the same thing



You did not answer my ? please read my post again.
I'm talking about way SDP was left out of yesterdays NEW M/L SYSTEM PLAYS.
I know they lost two.
If not they would have been a play.
Thanks, for the software info.

Okay, maybe I'm not sure what you are asking, so here's the questions which I see and my answer:


"Its not that hard, just time consuming, but I don't have the software, if the software helps cut the time off, this system let me know, please?"

No, the software will not help reduce the amount of time to come up with the plays.


"? anyone come up with the same thing
I'm talking about way SDP was left out of yesterdays NEW M/L SYSTEM PLAYS."

SDP was one of a number of plays on the new system which were eliminated due to the different filters.

Here's a list of all games that could have been plays on the new system yesterday but most of which were eliminated due to one or more filters (including the closing line as one of the filters)

PIT
SFO
STL
SDP
CIN
FLA
LAD
CLE
TEX
NYY


Specifically for SDP, what I see is Pred ML WAS +198. You are saying SDP 198.

[ShivaBowl]

Okay, maybe I'm not sure what you are asking, so here's the questions which I see and my answer:


"Its not that hard, just time consuming, but I don't have the software, if the software helps cut the time off, this system let me know, please?"

No, the software will not help reduce the amount of time to come up with the plays.


"? anyone come up with the same thing
I'm talking about way SDP was left out of yesterdays NEW M/L SYSTEM PLAYS."

SDP was one of a number of plays on the new system which were eliminated due to the different filters.

Here's a list of all games that could have been plays on the new system yesterday but most of which were eliminated due to one or more filters (including the closing line as one of the filters)

PIT
SFO
STL
SDP
CIN
FLA
LAD
CLE
TEX
NYY

WTF is wrong with you, for the last time I am only talking about the SDP.
WIZ I will post the TPR plays, good luck with the new system.
bol

[barts185]

WTF is wrong with you, for the last time I am only talking about the SDP.
WIZ I will post the TPR plays, good luck with the new system.
bol

Okay, I'm apparently just a problem, so I'm done posting anything here.

Hope everyone figures it out and likes all the ambiguity.

[EXhoosier10]

WTF is wrong with you, for the last time I am only talking about the SDP.
WIZ I will post the TPR plays, good luck with the new system.
bol

Shiva, why are you calling people out? He was trying to help. To be completely honest, your English isn't the easiest to understand, and Bart was trying to help you with a question he didnt' understand. If you're not willing to be patient with others when they dont' understand you, don't expect the same in return when we can't understand your questions. Please don't clutter up this thread any more than it is.

To try an answer your question, the predicted ML for San diego was never 198, it was +120 for washington. THe fact that san diego lost its last 2 games makes that a no play, no matter what other info you found.

On another note, can anyone tell me what a predicted M/L of 2.72 for the philadelphia philles mean? How can I translate that number into +100 or -100 terms? How do you even get a negative decimal line? Any help would be appreciated and I could track that system as well.

[talnted]

damn man sbr hook it up

[Formulawiz]

2.72 means the Road team is a 2.72 favorite.

[EXhoosier10]

2.72 means the Road team is a 2.72 favorite.

does that mean -272?

[konck]

Hey how good are the Yankees?

[ShivaBowl]

TPR UPDATE
MIL OUT
TPR PLAYS 07/09

NYY if <-175
COL if <-175
TEX if <-175

STL out lost 3
BOS out lost 4
MIL if <-175 NO PLAY LOST 5

[ShivaBowl]

does that mean -272?

YES the new system has Cinn as a -272 favorite over Phi

[Joe Dogs]

New system plays as I see them

Cinnci
N.Y.Mets
Pittsburgh--Both teams on losing streaks
Florida
Kansas City

If these plays are correct.....3 plays bump heads with the moneyline system
Moneyline picks
Atlanta
Chi Sox
Arizona

Can anyone confirm this or are my calculations off.

[EXhoosier10]

New system plays as I see them

Cinnci
N.Y.Mets
Pittsburgh--Both teams on losing streaks
Florida
Kansas City

If these plays are correct.....3 plays bump heads with the moneyline system
Moneyline picks
Atlanta
Chi Sox
Arizona

Can anyone confirm this or are my calculations off.

ML SYSTEM
White sox isn't plays, KC is on a 3 game win streak. COlorado is a play.

ATL COL ARI

NO TPR plays

[EXhoosier10]

TPR UPDATE
MIL OUT
TPR PLAYS 07/09

NYY if <-175
COL if <-175
TEX if <-175

STL out lost 3
BOS out lost 4
MIL if <-175 NO PLAY LOST 5

"When using our Team Projected Runs System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is 1 or over, indicating the home team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents and a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is -1 or under, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs. Play dogs only."
Stop posting plays if you aren't posting them correctly

[ShivaBowl]

New Scientific Plays based on early lines. 7/9/2010 CIN, FLA, KC ? ? CWS on a 5 game win streak ? KC on a 3 game win streak Lean to old M/L play CWS

New system plays as I see them Cinnci N.Y.Mets Pittsburgh--Both teams on losing streaks Florida Kansas City If these plays are correct.....3 plays bump heads with the moneyline system Moneyline picks Atlanta Chi Sox Arizona Can anyone confirm this or are my calculations off.

Mets are out because you can’t bet against ATL 2 game win streak.
Pitt out lost 3 Mil lost 5
CINN IN
FLA IN
KC IN
KC @ CWS is what it is, wow, flip a coin.


Good Work Joe,
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

Joe Dogs, why don`t you start posting the New System Plays, email me.
BOL

[EXhoosier10]

Mets are out because you can’t bet against ATL 2 game win streak.
Pitt out lost 3 Mil lost 5
CINN IN
FLA IN
KC IN

Good Work Joe,
BOL

KC isn't a play on any system because CHW is on a 5 game win streak. Chicago Cubs are a play on the new system as of now with a LAD line of -155.

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[ShivaBowl]

TPR System went 1-0 yesterday. 8-1 past 5 days.
COL WIN
+$835.00

TPR Plays later today

TPR PLAYS 07/09
NYY if <-175 out WIN
COL if <-175 WIN
TEX if <-175 out LOSS
MIL out lost 5 WIN
STL out lost 3 WIN
BOS out lost 4 WIN

Comp 7/9/2010
Take Colorado W/De LA Rosa over San Diego W/Correia NO PLAY if < -135 or > -175
FYI, COL is a nice play today, if the line holds above -135 and stays under -175

[EXhoosier10]

Tpr only plays dogs. Your own system might be 8-1, but not tpr

[HoulihansTX]

Here's what I have for today

ML system
Braves
Brew Crew
Rockies
D-Bags

TPR
Only Dogs
Boston
STL
Favs
Colorado
NYY

New System( I'm sure not confident in the ML conversion. Is -1.50, -150??? Then is 1.68, +168??)

If it is there are two plays, but they are above the ML range White Sox's, and Tampa.

Please correct my mistakes, b/c I will contribute where I can.

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 3-1 yesterday and the new System went 2-2

Todays ML plays based on early lines.

ATL, SF, COL, ARI, TOR, LAA, NYY

New system plays

ATL, SF, HOU, BOS, LAA, NYY. Seems many plays are the same as the ML system. Very interesting.

Can anyone volunteer to post the new system plays

[ShivaBowl]

Today's TPR plays, based on early lines.

BOS
STL
MIL if <-175
COL
NYY

Comp Selection from Sportrends.com
Take Arizona W/Kennedy over Florida W/Robertson NO PLAY if < -110 or > -175

[HoulihansTX]

Toronto/NYY/SF/LAA do not repersent a 25cent dissonance yet. Or am I wrong?

Tor(Proj +105/ Actual -115 according to pinny 20 cents

NYY(Proj -140/ Actual -110 pinny 30 cents(but in Mariners favor)

SF( Proj -105/ Actual -110 pinny 5cents

LAA(Proj -105/ Actual +130 pinny 35 cents(but in A's favor)

I may be incorrect?

Also the new system parameters read as though they need fit the TPR requirements then the ML requirements. I got White Sox, and Tampa. Though both are out of range of the ML system.

If Joe Dogs understands the system then I would love for him to psot the plays, and or post how to come up with the plays.

Thank you

[barts185]

Toronto/NYY/SF/LAA do not repersent a 25cent dissonance yet. Or am I wrong?

I know I said I was done, but this is part of the question I have had and have never gotten an answer to other than "here's the plays you should be able to figure it out."

There are times when a play is listed where I don't see any way it came close to being a 25 cent difference on any sort of consensus line.

To use the first game today, TOR - as far as I can tell, this would have to be a line of -120 to be a play. I can't see any way this was ever -120 on any consensus line.

Take Care,
Bart

[Dwell]

I check this thread daily, and I can't understand why people (particularly Formulawiz and Shivabowl) treat everybody like their encroaching on a territory that is not their own. I suggest that those of us who would like to work as a cohesive unit with a unified goal start a new thread, and rid ourselves of any smug attitude. Exhoosier, barts185, houlihans, anybody else...ya dig?

[barts185]

I check this thread daily, and I can't understand why people (particularly Formulawiz and Shivabowl) treat everybody like their encroaching on a territory that is not their own. I suggest that those of us who would like to work as a cohesive unit with a unified goal start a new thread, and rid ourselves of any smug attitude. Exhoosier, barts185, houlihans, anybody else...ya dig?

You jumped the gun on me.

Look for a new thread to be started over the all-star break.

The all-star break seems like a good starting point for a new thread. That way, it's a defined starting point, as opposed to just a particular day.

I wish everyone here all the best.


Take Care,
Bart

[ShivaBowl]

"When using our Team Projected Runs System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is 1 or over, indicating the home team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents and a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is -1 or under, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs. Play dogs only." Stop posting plays if you aren't posting them correctly

EXhoosier10,
Back when the Formulawiz asked me to takeover posting the daily TPR plays for peterpan19.
I asked the Wiz and peterpan19 about the Play Dogs Only Filter and they both responded, that they
were no longer using that filter. Also please go back and look over the TPR system on Sportrends.com
They have updated to; Try To Play Dogs Only.
Thanks,
BOL

Barts185, I apologize for the WTF, I really though you were giving me the
runaround, will send you a PM.
GL

[ShivaBowl]

Hey HoulihansTX,
I would be, more then happy, to help you with the new system, like I have in the past with sportrends.
BOL

[Formulawiz]

Toronto/NYY/SF/LAA do not repersent a 25cent dissonance yet. Or am I wrong?

Tor(Proj +105/ Actual -115 according to pinny 20 cents

NYY(Proj -140/ Actual -110 pinny 30 cents(but in Mariners favor)

SF( Proj -105/ Actual -110 pinny 5cents

LAA(Proj -105/ Actual +130 pinny 35 cents(but in A's favor)

I may be incorrect?

Also the new system parameters read as though they need fit the TPR requirements then the ML requirements. I got White Sox, and Tampa. Though both are out of range of the ML system.

If Joe Dogs understands the system then I would love for him to psot the plays, and or post how to come up with the plays.

Thank you

Your still not understanding. Your suppose to look at the majority of casinos ML and not just Pinny. Got it?

[Joe Dogs]

Hear is what I have with current lines

Play Atlanta
Mets +168 actual line +111
Value on Atlanta

Play San Fran
Nats +180 actual line -103

Play Brew crew -197 actual Line -163 According to sportrends your getting a 34.discount
play Boston
Toronto +130 actual line -117

play Houston -203 actual line -125 According to sportrends your getting a $2.03 team for $1.25

Right at the moment I'm not seeing cent spread on the yanks....That could change

Hope this helps guys.....Good luck tonight

[Formulawiz]

Hear is what I have with current lines

Play Atlanta
Mets +168 actual line +111
Value on Atlanta

Play San Fran
Nats +180 actual line -103

Play Brew crew -197 actual Line -163 According to sportrends your getting a 34.discount
play Boston
Toronto +130 actual line -117

play Houston -203 actual line -125 According to sportrends your getting a $2.03 team for $1.25

Right at the moment I'm not seeing cent spread on the yanks....That could change

Hope this helps guys.....Good luck tonight

JOEDOGS nice job explaining the new system. By the way MIL was a play dropped to -170

[barts185]

JOEDOGS nice job explaining the new system. By the way MIL was a play dropped to -170

I think LAA was also a play on the new system.

Pred OAK +123 actual OAK -135 value on LAA

LAA streak Win 1
OAK streak Lose 4

Both pitchers more than 20 innings pitched.


Good Luck,
Bart