Finally some kind of record in this thread......BOL EXhoosier10
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ML system went 1-1 yesterday. Too bad SD dropped out, it was a winner.
ML palys later today.Comment -
Formulawiz what book or books do you use to come to a conclusion if a game is play or not.Comment -
No one is asking to visit our thread. We do enough work here to bring everyone the plays and I think it should be your responsibility to calculate your own unit values.
It would also be nice if you would add some input as how to improve this system rather then belittling what we do. But thanks for your intelligent comments anyway.Comment -
Todays ML plays based on early lines.
STL, CHC, SD, ARI?, CLE, TB, TEXComment -
Formula,
Any idea why the Cubs always show up on the system?Comment -
TPR, 07/04/2010
Reds
Detroit
Philadelphia
TPR System, 07/01 to 07/04
07/01
N/P
07/02
1-0
Cin +128, W+128
07/03
0-1
Cin -114, L-114
07/04
1-2
Reds +116 ,W +116
Detroit +108, L-100
Philadelphia -136, L-136
Total -106.
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Does anyone want to take up tracking the ML plays? I have an excel sheet that just simply needs to be refreshed daily around game time to get final lines for "official" plays. If nobody volunteers, I can do it myself.
Got it all figured out. All you have to do is click a few buttons to run the macros and then put in the W/L record and you can copy and paste the results and put them in here. Any takers?Comment -
for the ML system, Texas is still pending. Will update BB and PT later tonight.
Today's Winnings ($1.65)
Today's record 2-3 40%
TOTAL WINNINGS ($1.65)
TOTAL RECORD 2-3 40%Comment -
ML system went 1-1 yesterday.
Plays later todayComment -
ML plays based on early lines
MIL, PHI, CIN, CWS, TB, NYYComment -
By the way I noticed Sportrends came up with a new system. It may have been there for quite a while. I saw it yesterday and followed it and it went 5-2
Here is the link
Does anyone want to post these plays and win/loss records daily, it would be appreciated.
Here are the plays the way I read it. If anyone interprets any differently let me know.
SF, CHC, NYM, LAD, NYYComment -
Tpr 07/05
Boston
NYY
KC
Comp
Take Philly W/Halladay over Atlanta W/Lowe NO PLAY if < -140 or > -175Comment -
Formula, can you help me figure out why some of these games weren't plays?
I have:
TEX - Streak (W1) - Proj Line (-125) - Actual line (-160) - Difference = -30...Loss
StL - Streak (L1) - Proj Line (-130) - Actual Line (-155) - Difference = -25...Win
ChC - Streak (W1) - Proj Line (120) - Actual Line (-125) - Difference = -45...Loss
SF - Streak (W1) - Proj Line (130) - Actual Line (105) - Difference = -25...Loss
ARI - Streak (L1) - Proj Line (110) - Actual Line (-115) - Difference = -25...LossComment -
TEX n/p under -150 line -154 play loss
STL n/p under -155 line -160 play win
CHC n/p under -105 line -122 play loss
Take a look at TEX Proj Line -125 +.25 = -150 n/p under <-150 the line was -160 play also remember n/p >175
I don't have the ML sheet for yesterday, looking for it.Comment -
when you say <-150, you mean -160 -170 etc?
Because the website says for an example "EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent."
so that means
HOU - Streak () - Proj Line (-130) - Actual line (-170) - Difference = -40... which is a play.
BOS- Streak () - Proj Line (-150) - Actual Line (-120) - Difference = +30...Play on opponent. So their opponent would be OPP - Proj Line (150) - Actual line (120) - Difference = -30... Play on this team.
Texas goes -125 to actual of -160. So that would be just like the houston example and the play would be on texas, and not as you say, a no play.
Here is the ml sheet from yesterday.Comment -
As an Ex: a majority of the ML's on the TEX game dropped below -150. The same for the other games. Remember use the Lines 15 to 20 minutes prior to satrt of game, which is basically the closing line.
By the way can you help with the new system plays and then keep the record. This way we have all 3 systems covered. You can call it any name you like. ThanksComment -
Everything I see shoes Texas being at -160 10-15 minutes before gametime. Either way, I can't wait around on my computer 10 minutes before gametime and scrape lines. I'm using closing lines from statfox for tracking purposes. If anyone notices that my closing line is that much off from 10-15 minutes before gametime, then let me know and i'll change it, otherwise, for simplicity, I'm using statfox's numbers.
And I don't feel like spending more time tracking systems formula. Sorry. Anyone else want to do it?Comment -
No I mean < under -150
< > are math symbols ( < under ) ( > over ) Taxes was a play last night and a loser -154
If the line had dropped to Texas -125 the play would have been on the CWS. If the line droped below <-150 no play on Taxes, or CWS
In this system I use (> as north) and (< as south) or up to and down to.
Lets just but it this way Play on Mets up to -175 or no play north > of -175Comment -
I was using the Mets as en example of <> not for a play tonight.
I pulled the Mets out of my hat.
EXhoosier10
when you say <-150, you mean -160 -170 etc?
Because the website says for an example "EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent."
so that means
HOU - Streak () - Proj Line (-130) - Actual line (-170) - Difference = -40... which is a play.
BOS- Streak () - Proj Line (-150) - Actual Line (-120) - Difference = +30...Play on opponent. So their opponent would be OPP - Proj Line (150) - Actual line (120) - Difference = -30... Play on this team.
Texas goes -125 to actual of -160. So that would be just like the houston example and the play would be on texas, and not as you say, a no play.
Here is the ml sheet from yesterday.
Shiva,
No I mean < under -150
< > are math symbols ( < under ) ( > over ) Taxes was a play last night and a loser -154
If the line had dropped to Texas -125 the play would have been on the CWS. If the line droped below <-150 no play on Taxes, or CWS
In this system I use (> as north) and (< as south) or up to and down to.
Lets just but it this way Play on Mets or any Team up to -175 or no play north > of -175Comment -
Originally Posted by Formulawiz
As an Ex: a majority of the ML's on the TEX game dropped below -150. The same for the other games. Remember use the Lines 15 to 20 minutes prior to satrt of game, which is basically the closing line.
By the way can you help with the new system plays and then keep the record. This way we have all 3 systems covered. You can call it any name you like. Thanks
Shiva,
I checked the line on Taxes over 100 times or more and at 10 or more books hoping to find a line making it a no play and couldn't, only because I liked, the CWS last night and went down with Taxes -154.Comment -
ML Plays for SUNDAY 07/04
STL WIN
TEXAS LOSS
CUBS LOSS
SDG NO PLAY
CLE NO PLAY
TAM NO PLAY
ARI NO PLAY
1-2
Are we all on the same page.
GLComment -
I agree that those were the plays but I also have SF. All lines but pinnacle were at +105 at close. Nowhere on the ML website did it say to take lines 10-15 minutes before closing. Also, ARI is all <-125 (less than, meaning more negative, meaning -125, -130). How are these not plays?
For 7/5, these are my final plays
Chi. White Sox -150
Tampa Bay -165
NY Yankees -145
Kansas City 190
Milwaukee -110
Care to disagree anyone?Comment -
PHI drooped out >-175
< and > are mathematical signs meaning less then or more then.
Rules for making selectionsPlays must be entered 10-15 minutes prior to start of games to let lines settle out.
Do not play games that fall outside our Line parameters.
Opinion Plays, Do Not count toward our win/loss records.
MLB we use closing lines calculate our Win/Loss Records.
Baseball drop game if specified pitcher does not start.
Projected Money Line System
- When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent differential or overlay in which the oddsmakers ML's are moving in the opposite direction to our lines.
- Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
- Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
- Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
- Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
- Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.
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Where are you getting this set of rules? FOR THE RECORD, I AM MAKING THESE MONEY LINE SELECTIONS BASED ON CLOSING LINE NUMBERS. I dont have the resources to find the lines 15 minutes prior to game time and quickly import them into excel for tracking, so closing numbers are what we will use. if the system shows a loss because it makes 20 poor selections, throughout half of the season (assuming it goes 10-10 or hits at worst 40%), then the system isn't really worth the effort since it cant net you +10 units. So if anyone wants to keep a running tally of the games themselves with 10-15 second lines and keep said tally for the entire season, with updated record and unit count, then by all means, go for it. But if you are only going to post records, I'm going to continue posting these plays for people who are trying out these systems and want to see how they are faring.Comment -
xxxComment -
ML system went 3-0 yesterday. There seems to be alot of confusion. These are yesterdays plays. I would appreciate if you guys would let me post the win/loss records. I use the closing lines found the next morning which are always the lines 15-20 minutes before the games start.
CWS, TB, NYY.
Secondly the new system went 3-1 yesterday. As a matter of fact I called sportrends yesterday to find out when this system was posted and they told me a few weeks ago. They also indicated the system was on fire. I also asked about the CIN game which had a change of pitching and they indicated CIN was a play which was another winner.
I am asking if one of you guys would help out posting the new system plays
I will list them today along with the ML plays.Comment
