MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/4


- Min C bet (vs Tor) - currently +147, play Run Line +1.5 at -145 (707 est)
- SF A bet - currently -111, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -265 (710 est)
- NYM A bet (vs Mia) - currently -127, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -285 (710 est)
- TB A bet (vs CHW) - currently +119, play Run Line +1.5 at -190 (810 est)
- SD A bet (vs Mil) - currently +112, play Run Line +1.5 at -205 (810 est)


Kind of a scary C bet today on the surface, but Hughes has been pitching well and the Twins normally score a ton of runs with him on the mound. They have also owned Estrada in the past. He's 0-2 with a 6+ ERA against them.

Toronto's hot, but hopefully the Twins can cool them off for one game.

Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[chief42]

Ledjend,

Regarding the closing lines that you base your runline/ml/altrunline plays on from covers.com I am going to use the Mets vs Marlins as an example. Are you using the lines from this page here from the odds that covers.com tracks for the away team? Also, if the team is home do you use the odds listed on this page here? I just wanted to clarify to make sure I am tracking the correct odds.

Great Job so far, I have seen a few systems on this site most do not pan out for the long haul. I sincerely hope that yours does and that your hard work and research pay off you. I have followed your plays since its inception in July and have started to tail you as of today. If I could say one thing in advice: Ignore the people who hate on you for whatever reason. Best thing to do is to ignore them, once you reply it only adds fuel to their fire. I hope this thread stays classy through the ups and downs. BOL to you sir

[ledjend]

Ledjend,

Regarding the closing lines that you base your runline/ml/altrunline plays on from covers.com I am going to use the Mets vs Marlins as an example. Are you using the lines from this page here from the odds that covers.com tracks for the away team? Also, if the team is home do you use the odds listed on this page here? I just wanted to clarify to make sure I am tracking the correct odds.

Great Job so far, I have seen a few systems on this site most do not pan out for the long haul. I sincerely hope that yours does and that your hard work and research pay off you. I have followed your plays since its inception in July and have started to tail you as of today. If I could say one thing in advice: Ignore the people who hate on you for whatever reason. Best thing to do is to ignore them, once you reply it only adds fuel to their fire. I hope this thread stays classy through the ups and downs. BOL to you sir

Hey Chief,

Thanks for checking in and welcome aboard!

This is the page I use. It's the "Scores & Matchups" link in the drop-down menu under MLB.

And I agree with your philosophy as far as haters go - but I also like to give people the benefit of the doubt. Just because someone disagrees doesn't necessarily make them a hater in my opinion. And sometimes it takes a little back in forth interaction to make that distinction. Also, haters are sometimes the best teachers because they're always looking for a chink in the armor - and they'll let you know immediately if you have one.

My point is, if it sometimes seems like I'm adding fuel to someone's fire, there's reason behind it.

Good luck tonight!

[bryanoens]

Ledjend, thanks for your research and info. Been following for about 3 weeks and I'm all smiles. Haters will hate. Sure the juice can look bitter but the results are sweet. Keep it up! Still 80 units to go

[F42294]

TODAY 8/4

- Min C bet (vs Tor) - currently +147, play Run Line +1.5 at -145 (707 est)
- SF A bet - currently -111, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -265 (710 est)
- NYM A bet (vs Mia) - currently -127, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -285 (710 est)
- TB A bet (vs CHW) - currently +119, play Run Line +1.5 at -190 (810 est)
- SD A bet (vs Mil) - currently +112, play Run Line +1.5 at -205 (810 est)

I took the Alt Run Line on all the plays today but SF and NYM both were very close to -130. I think depending on the site you use it may have been over -130. I know the rule is to use Covers but my thinking is I should use the line based on what I am actually getting instead of what Covers has since that isn't actually the line I am betting.

Thoughts?

[bob6199]

Using Pinnacle's line the 3 Gm loss of Fading Toronto was around 11.35, so perfect chase to lose, considering the AVG loss is much higher then that

[Slipknot26]

The back testing is based of covers spread , so I would only base everything off of that line.
If yours is different , you should still base the bet off the line to which covers is using. It could be the difference in a lot of money should you base it off your line and lose an extra chase or two.
Example - You take -132 at your book on a "C" chase , so you bet straight at -132. While covers was 128, so you should bet ALR +1' . The team you bet losses by 1 , that's a 17 unit loss by basing off your line which should be a Win since it should have been ARL .
He can answer but the past years data is only off covers -130 line when using the ARL. So I've been betting off of it regardless what I get it at due to the results from the back testing.
Or I hope it is , the system is all based off specific data , "Covers " line .

[ledjend]

Ledjend, thanks for your research and info. Been following for about 3 weeks and I'm all smiles. Haters will hate. Sure the juice can look bitter but the results are sweet. Keep it up! Still 80 units to go

My pleasure Bryan - awesome to hear you've been playing for that long! Last 3 weeks were tremendous - but definitely still work to be done!

Thanks for chiming in!

[ledjend]

Using Pinnacle's line the 3 Gm loss of Fading Toronto was around 11.35, so perfect chase to lose, considering the AVG loss is much higher then that

That's exactly how I feel, Bob. Knowing that losses are gonna happen, you couldn't ask for a better series to lose.

I had lines at: -155, -110, and -140.
Total cost: -11.86 units.

We'll round to 12 to keep it neat.

[ledjend]

The back testing is based of covers spread , so I would only base everything off of that line.
If yours is different , you should still base the bet off the line to which covers is using. It could be the difference in a lot of money should you base it off your line and lose an extra chase or two.
Example - You take -132 at your book on a "C" chase , so you bet straight at -132. While covers was 128, so you should bet ALR +1' . The team you bet losses by 1 , that's a 17 unit loss by basing off your line which should be a Win since it should have been ARL .
He can answer but the past years data is only off covers -130 line when using the ARL. So I've been betting off of it regardless what I get it at due to the results from the back testing.
Or I hope it is , the system is all based off specific data , "Covers " line .

I was hoping someone would answer that question - thanks for grabbing the horns, Slip. Couldn't have said it better myself!

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/4

Flat Betting (Entered day 74-42, -.94 u)

- Min +1.5 at -140 - Loss
- SD +1.5 at -195 - Loss
- SF +1.5 at -270 - Win
- NYM +1.5 at -300 - Win
- TB +1.5 at -205 - Win


3-2, -.35 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 53-32, +2.86 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 24-12, -4.15 u

Year to date combined - 77-44, -1.29 u



Chase (Entered day 73-1, +56.5 u)

- Min C bet (vs Tor) - Loss...-155, -110, -140 = -11.85 u (rounded to -12 units)
- SD A bet (vs Mil) - Loss
- SF A bet - Win
- NYM A bet (vs Mia) - Win
- TB A bet (vs CHW) - Win


Year to date - 76-2, +47.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

After the C bet loss tonight I became curious to see exactly when the losses occurred in the past - whether they've been bunched or not. In case you were curious too, here's that info:

2015 - 7/3 and 8/5
2014 - 9/7 and 9/13
2013 - 8/1, 2 on 8/8, 8/18, and 9/1
2012 - 7/2, 7/31, 8/19, 9/10
2011 - 7/10, 7/21, 7/30, 8/4, 8/28, and 9/10
2010 - 7/29, 8/7, 8/24, 8/28, and 9/19


Aside from that really rough patch in 2013 where there were 2 losses in the same day, they've been pretty spread apart - which is what I was hoping for.

Obviously this year could be different, but it helps me sleep when I know percentages are in our favor.

[F42294]

In relation to using covers line or the line you are getting when you place the bet.... it can work both ways as to being a positive or a negative. Sometimes a loss will save you units or cost you units.

In the Slipknot26 example above it would have cost units to not use the Cover line and take the Alt Run Line instead, However, in ledjens own example from this year he shows how a loss would have been cheaper in his own experience because he had them on the +1.5 line (note: he had +1.5 even though Covers close was -129)....

Yea they closed at -129 on Covers.com - anything under -130 is a Run Line play. I had them at -220 on sportsbetting.com. If you didn't take them at +1.5 you lucked out.

I'll try to wait as long as I can to post plays so we're at least in the ballpark with the closing lines - but you guys are definitely going to have to do some monitoring of your own. I normally don't place my bets until right before the first pitch.

...this shows how using or not using Covers line can cost you $ or save you $ on any single loss.


This system is based not on one particular game but on a series of games. Knowing that historically there are only about 5 series loss' per year I would think that when the line is around the cutoff for using the Alt Run Line that the most prudent course of action would be to error on using the Alt Run Line. By using the Alt Run Line when Covers vs your book are on opposite sides of -130 you are risking more units on a particular game. However, by using the Alt Run Line you could actually win a game that someone who took the game on the Money Line would lose. If the bet team loses a game by 1 run, Money line players lose while Alt Run Line players win, however there is never an instance when Money Line players would win while Alt Run Line players would lose.

The risk is that if a game is lost by more than 2 runs the Alt Run Line player would lose more on this particular game and would have to risk more on subsequent games in the series. However, a win in subsequent games would render the extra risk a mute point, the only issue would be if this happened to be one of the rare series loss' (historically about 5 per year). Because the historically low risk of a series loss in this system I think you are better off taking the Alt Run Line vs taking the money line when the line is on opposite sides of -130 between Covers and your book.

[ledjend]

In relation to using covers line or the line you are getting when you place the bet.... it can work both ways as to being a positive or a negative. Sometimes a loss will save you units or cost you units.

In the Slipknot26 example above it would have cost units to not use the Cover line and take the Alt Run Line instead, However, in ledjens own example from this year he shows how a loss would have been cheaper in his own experience because he had them on the +1.5 line (note: he had +1.5 even though Covers close was -129)....



...this shows how using or not using Covers line can cost you $ or save you $ on any single loss.


This system is based not on one particular game but on a series of games. Knowing that historically there are only about 5 series loss' per year I would think that when the line is around the cutoff for using the Alt Run Line that the most prudent course of action would be to error on using the Alt Run Line. By using the Alt Run Line when Covers vs your book are on opposite sides of -130 you are risking more units on a particular game. However, by using the Alt Run Line you could actually win a game that someone who took the game on the Money Line would lose. If the bet team loses a game by 1 run, Money line players lose while Alt Run Line players win, however there is never an instance when Money Line players would win while Alt Run Line players would lose.

The risk is that if a game is lost by more than 2 runs the Alt Run Line player would lose more on this particular game and would have to risk more on subsequent games in the series. However, a win in subsequent games would render the extra risk a mute point, the only issue would be if this happened to be one of the rare series loss' (historically about 5 per year). Because the historically low risk of a series loss in this system I think you are better off taking the Alt Run Line vs taking the money line when the line is on opposite sides of -130 between Covers and your book.

Thanks for the post F42294.

The point I think Slip was trying to make and that I agree with is that Covers is the be-all and end-all line when it comes to using this system. It is the only line that you and I should ever be concerned with - period.

That being said, I do agree with erring on the side of caution by playing the Alt Run Line when in doubt. You made a great description of how you would actually be risking more by playing the Money Line instead of the Alt Run Line in a flip-flop situation.

From my experience, lines generally don't move more than 1-2 points in the last 10 minutes before first pitch. So if the line's sitting at -133 within that last 10 minutes, I'd say it's safe to pull the trigger on the Money Line. Same with -127, which you'd then play the Alt Run Line. The tricky part is when you're sitting -128 to -132. That's when I'll normally just punch the ARL.

I'm glad you brought this up because it hasn't been talked about before and it's extremely important - thanks again!

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/5


- Bos A bet - currently +177, play Run Line +1.5 at -120 (705 est)
- Was A bet (vs Ari) - currently -143, play Money Line (705 est)
- SD B bet (vs Mil) - currently +114, play Run Line +1.5 at -195 (810 est)


Good luck tonight!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/4

Flat Betting (Entered day 77-44, -1.29 u)

- Was -132 - Loss
- SD +1.5 at -205 - Loss
- Bos +1.5 at -120 - Win


1-2, -2.37 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 54-33, +2.54 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 24-13, -6.20 u

Year to date combined - 78-46, -3.66 u



Chase (Entered day 76-2, +47.5 u)

- Was A bet (vs Ari) - Loss
- SD B bet (vs Mil) - Loss
- Bos A bet - Win


Year to date - 77-2, +48.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/6


- StL A bet (vs Cin) - currently -153, play Money Line (1235 est)
- SD C bet (vs Mil) - currently +105, play Run Line at -205 (210 est)
- Was B bet (vs Ari) - currently -150, play Money Line (405 est)


All early games today - good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[kg34]

Been following for several weeks. Thanks for updating and posting your picks, it's appreciated.

[bryanoens]

Padres down 4-0 early. Come on!!!

[tr4sh]

This is going to be a painful loss

[bob6199]

23.625 unit loss on the Padres, assuming they don't have a miracle comeback in them.

[pm9964]

Wow, Padres you suck. Need to find some kind of filter here.

[pm9964]

The last C bet that lost and now this one, any similarities? We're they cold teams or in a slump?

[stacks on deck]

You guys have to figure there is gonna be like 4 or more losses.

[pm9964]

Oh I'm not complaining, I understand the risk, just trying to think of filters to limit the losses

[Can U Tank It]

You guys have to figure there is gonna be like 4 or more losses.

exactly sir- thats why this is a 1% max A bet system. risking 25% of ones bank to recoup the initial 2% A level bet should gag anyone in their right mind.

[pm9964]

Let's move on to tomorrow!

[keel44]

He has about a 26.9 unit profit right now. He is on pace to go (135 - 3) the rest of the way. Assuming each loss would be about 19 units lost (3 * 19 = 57)......

135 + 26.9 in total profits = 161.9
161.9 - 57 additional losses = 104.9 net profit

* All of this is according to his 5 year back testing stats on page 3*

In other words we are right on track

[ledjend]

Hell of a rough week so far. Losses were bound to happen, but I obviously was hoping for a little more separation between them. My bankroll took a heavy hit in the last 3 days as I'm sure yours did too (unless you're flat betting of course).

Fact of the matter is though, we're still +25.5 units in a little over a month. So as long as you're managing your bankroll correctly (no more than 2% of your bankroll per series), you're still ahead of the game.

Another silver lining is that a similar sequence took place in 2013 where there were actually 2 losses in one day (8/8/13). That season still managed to profit 124 units.

Bottom line, we still have a month and a half left to do some major damage. Losing sucks. Shit happens. But history is completely on our side - and that's where my money is going.

[ledjend]

Been following for several weeks. Thanks for updating and posting your picks, it's appreciated.

My pleasure kg - thanks for sharing!

[ledjend]

This is going to be a painful loss

Definitely! The cost was painful, but also the way those B and C games played out - that was the hardest part to swallow in my opinion.

[ledjend]

23.625 unit loss on the Padres, assuming they don't have a miracle comeback in them.

I need to start using your lines Bob. I had:

-195, -205. -190 = -25.1 units (rounding to -25)

[ledjend]

You guys have to figure there is gonna be like 4 or more losses.

Exactly, Stacks - anywhere from 2-6 losses each year.

[ledjend]

Oh I'm not complaining, I understand the risk, just trying to think of filters to limit the losses

There are filters.

[ledjend]

exactly sir- thats why this is a 1% max A bet system. risking 25% of ones bank to recoup the initial 2% A level bet should gag anyone in their right mind.

I kindly disagree and am of the opinion that 2% is not only safe but will also maximize profits when using this system. No more than that though.