MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[sportsbetter21]

"Whoever you're following right now - stop! Unless they're making you 100 units every 3 months, there's just no reason to even look back - this is the only thread you need. It is a living, breathing cash cow - so make sure you subscribe so you don't miss any money!"


Exactly 3 weeks ago I began this thread with that quote. Since then, we've gone on to win 42 consecutive series. If you missed out, I get it. There's threads being made every day by morons making empty promises. So how would you know right off the bat that I was different? Even if you had a feeling, you still wouldn't know for sure. So to put your hard earned money on the line taking advice from someone making outrageous claims would be borderline special ed.

But now it's 3 weeks later - and pretty much every promise I've made has played out to a "T". I said this was the greatest system I'd seen in over 20 years - we've won 42 straight. I said it averaged over 100 units of profit per year over the last 3 years - we're up 32.5 units with still almost 2 months to go. And remember that one and only series on Pittsburgh that was cancelled after the A bet - it lost!

If you were waiting around to see if this was for real - that's fine. Like I said, you didn't know me from Adam. But now you've seen proof. We've gone 7-0 on C bets for Christ's sake!

If you're in this thread right now but following someone else - I hope they're making you 100 units every 3 months. Because if they're not, and you still continue to follow them even after reading this - you're an idiot and you don't deserve money!

See you guys on Sunday.

i would be more comfortable if an explanation was given, I simply dont bet just because someone tells me they have the best system that has ever been created yet wont explain how plays are determined, "proven" numbers or not. I get it, its your system and you do as you please, but to sit there and snub other peoples work on here because they are not making the astronomical numbers you are is a bit asinine. Feel free to spin your numbers if God forbid you were to lose a series, which im sure will never happen because the last 5 years of data says so, like you did the with the flat betting. How convenient that when the plays arent hitting 80% anymore that you can just resort to only playing games that are -199 or below. This is whats great about the a free forum, you can do whatever you want with little or no consequence.

[ledjend]

Two questions. How are STL and TEX not B plays? And where does BAL B game come from, cant see any A game?

I've been waiting for someone to ask this question. Here's yesterday's card:

- LAD A bet - currently -135, play Money Line (110 est)
- Hou A bet - currently -113, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (210 est)
- St L A bet (vs Atl) - currently -215, play Money Line (215 est)
- Tex A bet (vs LAA) - currently +180, play Run Line +1.5 at -115 (335 est)


You'll notice that next to the St L and Texas A bets there is (vs Atl) and (vs LAA). This means that although the individual A bets are on St Louis and Texas, the actual series' are being played AGAINST Atlanta and LAA.

Therefore, tonight's play on Baltimore is a continuation of the series AGAINST Atlanta. Texas was only involved because they were playing the Angels. The same goes for yesterday's play on St. Louis.

Does that help?

[MMA_Oracle]

I've been waiting for someone to ask this question. Here's yesterday's card:

- LAD A bet - currently -135, play Money Line (110 est)
- Hou A bet - currently -113, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (210 est)
- St L A bet (vs Atl) - currently -215, play Money Line (215 est)
- Tex A bet (vs LAA) - currently +180, play Run Line +1.5 at -115 (335 est)


You'll notice that next to the St L and Texas A bets there is (vs Atl) and (vs LAA). This means that although the individual A bets are on St Louis and Texas, the actual series' are being played AGAINST Atlanta and LAA.

Therefore, tonight's play on Baltimore is a continuation of the series AGAINST Atlanta. Texas was only involved because they were playing the Angels. The same goes for yesterday's play on St. Louis.

Does that help?

so just to be clear myself, your play on St. Louis yesterday and Baltimore play today are grouped together as a chase betting against (or fading) Atlanta. So if Baltimore loses today, C bet will be Baltimore again tomorrow

same with fading the Angels, tomorrow's B bet will be on the Astros, correct?

[ledjend]

i would be more comfortable if an explanation was given, I simply dont bet just because someone tells me they have the best system that has ever been created yet wont explain how plays are determined, "proven" numbers or not. I get it, its your system and you do as you please, but to sit there and snub other peoples work on here because they are not making the astronomical numbers you are is a bit asinine. Feel free to spin your numbers if God forbid you were to lose a series, which im sure will never happen because the last 5 years of data says so, like you did the with the flat betting. How convenient that when the plays arent hitting 80% anymore that you can just resort to only playing games that are -199 or below. This is whats great about the a free forum, you can do whatever you want with little or no consequence.

1) I didn't snub anyone's work - and if I did, show me where.
2) We will eventually lose multiple series which I've said multiple times.
3) Why in the world would I continue flat betting in a way that obviously isn't profiting? Would you continue driving in the wrong direction if you knew for a fact you were going the wrong way?

You obviously have a problem with me because I won't spoon feed you details to a system that took me more than half my life to discover. If you don't like me, beat it. Simple as that.

[ledjend]

so just to be clear myself, your play on St. Louis yesterday and Baltimore play today are grouped together as a chase betting against (or fading) Atlanta. So if Baltimore loses today, C bet will be Baltimore again tomorrow

same with fading the Angels, tomorrow's B bet will be on the Astros, correct?

Correct!

[MMA_Oracle]

Correct!

got it, not that complicated but I assume the method to figuring out who to bet on is. idk if i can actually start the system now but if you think i can, count me in

[txdallas112]

Guys since this is basically an undisclosed system you may want to LIMIT YOUR RISK and Follow what bob6199 noted in Post #9 Bet only The B & C Games Only, a (2) Game chase using a Labby Line (one for each B & C) so Far it is hitting on these games at a high rate.

[ledjend]

got it, not that complicated but I assume the method to figuring out who to bet on is. idk if i can actually start the system now but if you think i can, count me in

Not really sure what you mean about being able to start the system, but if you're talking about whether there's still money to be made, there definitely is:

FLAT BETTING
currently -4.7 units
average profit over last 5 years +37.6

CHASING
currently +33.5 units
average profit over last 5 years +133.8

[jeffjam_]

Thanks for explanation. So tomorrow there will be a double play on Hou, one playing Hou and the other fading LAA. So we should play to win 2 units.

[sportsbetter21]

If you're in this thread right now but following someone else - I hope they're making you 100 units every 3 months. Because if they're not, and you still continue to follow them even after reading this - you're an idiot and you don't deserve money!


That is what I find asinine but its only my opinion.
I follow on3 opening day system listed here.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3076983-on3s-mlb-2015-opening-day-system-thread.html

Its currently up 19 units from beginning of the year. Its it ground breaking? NO
Do i wish it created more units? Of course
but It clearly explains has how the plays are determined and if you have a question on a play you ask he does a pretty good job at explaining it. He doesnt sit there and say "I make 100+ units and if you dont follow my plays nanny nanny pooh pooh"
When it goes into a down turn he doesnt pick and choose then alter how he is going to count his units and when it is on fire, he doesnt blow up his stats or brag that everyone else around here is better off playing tiddly winks.

You have every right to pimp your system, but to do so without explanation is crap, at least in my book, which is why i pick and choose which play. Im not a moderator or administrator around here but to sit there and piss on the other guys who have a proven and established reputation around here is also crap.

So I dont really have a problem with you per se, its more of the brash tone and the arrogant "you are not worthy" attitude that you portray. Dont be afraid of any criticism around here, most people are here to help. There will always be perceived nay sayers as well. There is no escaping it in the day and age. The fact that you sit there and say "this system is mine all mine and no one can know the secret of my success" is purely childish. I would have been more impressed if you said " i kick ass in handicapping mlb, I make 100+ units in the 2nd half of the season alone, follow my plays sucka!!!!" It is what your doing right? Your just picking winners and doing a good job at doing so.

Its all a matter of perception

[sportsbetter21]

got it, not that complicated but I assume the method to figuring out who to bet on is. idk if i can actually start the system now but if you think i can, count me in

Its a secret
no one is allowed to know how plays are determined
Just follow blindly and the money will start pouring in
Because thats the bottom line because stone cold said so!!!!!!

[MMA_Oracle]

Not really sure what you mean about being able to start the system, but if you're talking about whether there's still money to be made, there definitely is:

FLAT BETTING
currently -4.7 units
average profit over last 5 years +37.6

CHASING
currently +33.5 units
average profit over last 5 years +133.8

well, true, i suppose so. but it looks like you haven't lost a lot of series yet. you also posted that you will be losing multiple series before the season is over. speaking for myself, who would essentially start tailing your system now (so i disregard your profit up until this point, which is pretty spectacular, congrats), it might make more sense for me to just fade you. How many series do you expect to lose between now and the end of the season?

edit: btw i dont mean to be disrespectful when i say "fade" you. law of averages has to come into play eventually, right

[sportsbetter21]

Guys since this is basically an undisclosed system you may want to LIMIT YOUR RISK and Follow what bob6199 noted in Post #9 Bet only The B & C Games Only, a (2) Game chase using a Labby Line (one for each B & C) so Far it is hitting on these games at a high rate.

Why you being a debbie downer and calling it an undisclosed system? if your not making 100+ units, youre an idiot and dont deserve money
Dont mess with perfection, there is 5 years of undisclosed data that proves this undisclosed theory

[ledjend]

Guys since this is basically an undisclosed system you may want to LIMIT YOUR RISK and Follow what bob6199 noted in Post #9 Bet only The B & C Games Only, a (2) Game chase using a Labby Line (one for each B & C) so Far it is hitting on these games at a high rate.

I don't recommend this at all - you will miss out on A LOT of money.

But at the same time, it does reduce your risk. So if the water's not warm enough yet, then I agree, this is one way to go.

[ledjend]

Thanks for explanation. So tomorrow there will be a double play on Hou, one playing Hou and the other fading LAA. So we should play to win 2 units.

You got it!

[sportsbetter21]

well, true, i suppose so. but it looks like you haven't lost a lot of series yet. you also posted that you will be losing multiple series before the season is over. speaking for myself, who would essentially start tailing your system now (so i disregard your profit up until this point, which is pretty spectacular, congrats), it might make more sense for me to just fade you. How many series do you expect to lose between now and the end of the season?

edit: btw i dont mean to be disrespectful when i say "fade" you. law of averages has to come into play eventually, right

How dare you fade!!!!
Dont you know this is someones lifes work?
Cmon man get with the program
Your mortgage and your kids college tuition depends on it!!!!!!!

[ledjend]

If you're in this thread right now but following someone else - I hope they're making you 100 units every 3 months. Because if they're not, and you still continue to follow them even after reading this - you're an idiot and you don't deserve money!


That is what I find asinine but its only my opinion.
I follow on3 opening day system listed here.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3076983-on3s-mlb-2015-opening-day-system-thread.html

Its currently up 19 units from beginning of the year. Its it ground breaking? NO
Do i wish it created more units? Of course
but It clearly explains has how the plays are determined and if you have a question on a play you ask he does a pretty good job at explaining it. He doesnt sit there and say "I make 100+ units and if you dont follow my plays nanny nanny pooh pooh"
When it goes into a down turn he doesnt pick and choose then alter how he is going to count his units and when it is on fire, he doesnt blow up his stats or brag that everyone else around here is better off playing tiddly winks.

You have every right to pimp your system, but to do so without explanation is crap, at least in my book, which is why i pick and choose which play. Im not a moderator or administrator around here but to sit there and piss on the other guys who have a proven and established reputation around here is also crap.

So I dont really have a problem with you per se, its more of the brash tone and the arrogant "you are not worthy" attitude that you portray. Dont be afraid of any criticism around here, most people are here to help. There will always be perceived nay sayers as well. There is no escaping it in the day and age. The fact that you sit there and say "this system is mine all mine and no one can know the secret of my success" is purely childish. I would have been more impressed if you said " i kick ass in handicapping mlb, I make 100+ units in the 2nd half of the season alone, follow my plays sucka!!!!" It is what your doing right? Your just picking winners and doing a good job at doing so.

Its all a matter of perception

Agree to disagree.

[Grivas_Digeni]

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 40-21, +7.3 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 11-10, -12 u

Year to date combined - 51-31, -4.7 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

that's a good decision... it's fair and it gives credibility to the system; if it helps you make more $, all the better
good luck

[ledjend]

well, true, i suppose so. but it looks like you haven't lost a lot of series yet. you also posted that you will be losing multiple series before the season is over. speaking for myself, who would essentially start tailing your system now (so i disregard your profit up until this point, which is pretty spectacular, congrats), it might make more sense for me to just fade you. How many series do you expect to lose between now and the end of the season?

edit: btw i dont mean to be disrespectful when i say "fade" you. law of averages has to come into play eventually, right

Average losses per year over last 5 years is 4.4 - although last year there were only 2.

I like the way you think, but I wouldn't recommend fading just because I haven't done any research on it.

[ledjend]

that's a good decision... it's fair and it gives credibility to the system; if it helps you make more $, all the better
good luck

Thanks buddy!

[SouthBayGame]

I thought Dodgers was shown as a money line bet on 26th?

[bob6199]

why fade him when he still has to make 60 units and how are you going to fade? I swear ppl are morons, just put them on your ignore list ledlend, so you never have to see most of these people's BS

[MMA_Oracle]

How dare you fade!!!!
Dont you know this is someones lifes work?
Cmon man get with the program
Your mortgage and your kids college tuition depends on it!!!!!!!

Ha the sarcasm is strong w this one but in all seriousness, the guy showed that he could be consistent w winning his three game series. if we assume he's gonna lose 5-6 series throughout the year (which i think was posted earlier in the thread) and all his recommended plays are highly juiced (lets say -150 average), the chances of me tailing him and actually making a profit going forward from this point on arent too great when compared to the potential losses. I would lose what, nearly ~10.5u for each series that loses (lets assume 1.5u lost on A, 3.5 on B, and 5.5u on C). Assuming 4-5 more losses this season, according to his average, that's 40-50u total lost on losing series from this point on. As someone who would "fade" him, I would bet the opposite, non-juiced lines (which protects myself from losing a lot more money than actually tailing him) and i'd also protect myself in case his system goes over the 4-5 more losses that is estimated

edit: i just saw your post that has the estimate of 4.4 losses per season. that's lower than i thought it would be but im still a bit skeptical that i can start tailing now and make money from this point on (mostly because of what i stated earlier, you had an amazing first half to the season). If you'd like, i can keep you informed through PM of what that "fading" profit/loss would be on a weekly basis

[ledjend]

I thought Dodgers was shown as a money line bet on 26th?

I posted plays around 230 am - and as I hope you know, lines change throughout the day. So I have the following note at the bottom of every new list of bets:


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.


The closing line was -125.

[2buckluck]

I've been waiting for someone to ask this question. Here's yesterday's card:

- LAD A bet - currently -135, play Money Line (110 est)
- Hou A bet - currently -113, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (210 est)
- St L A bet (vs Atl) - currently -215, play Money Line (215 est)
- Tex A bet (vs LAA) - currently +180, play Run Line +1.5 at -115 (335 est)


You'll notice that next to the St L and Texas A bets there is (vs Atl) and (vs LAA). This means that although the individual A bets are on St Louis and Texas, the actual series' are being played AGAINST Atlanta and LAA.

Therefore, tonight's play on Baltimore is a continuation of the series AGAINST Atlanta. Texas was only involved because they were playing the Angels. The same goes for yesterday's play on St. Louis.

Does that help?

so just to be clear myself, your play on St. Louis yesterday and Baltimore play today are grouped together as a chase betting against (or fading) Atlanta. So if Baltimore loses today, C bet will be Baltimore again tomorrow

same with fading the Angels, tomorrow's B bet will be on the Astros, correct?

<br>
<br>

To clarify (and maybe to beat a dead horse) ... all 4 A games lost yesterday... but we are only chasing the Cards loss today (fading ATL) with a B game today playing on Balt
and starting a new A play on CIN (fading St L now) today, correct?

And B plays for the other 3 games are to come??
I guess I want to be sure (and maybe that's why people were having trouble tracking/playing along/ fading before...)
So we'll fade mets, Kc, and the Angels (as mentioned in quote) tomorrow or later when it's a good matchup?? Or even if I'm slightly off on the system I need to know what play is the chase...

[MMA_Oracle]

<br>
<br>

To clarify (and maybe to beat a dead horse) ... all 4 A games lost yesterday... but we are only chasing the Cards loss today (fading ATL) with a B game today playing on Balt
and starting a new A play on CIN (fading St L now) today, correct?

And B plays for the other 3 games are to come??
I guess I want to be sure (and maybe that's why people were having trouble tracking/fading before...) So we'll fade mets, Kc, and the Angels (as mentioned in quote) tomorrow or later when it's a good matchup??

from my understanding, he can confirm, but yes to all of that. each one of his series arent random bets, they are meant to bet on or against a particular team. however, i think he's betting on the dodgers and astros, not fading the mets and royals since he didnt acknowledge that he's betting against those teams yesterday like he did against ATL and LAA

[ledjend]

Ha the sarcasm is strong w this one but in all seriousness, the guy showed that he could be consistent w winning his three game series. if we assume he's gonna lose 5-6 series throughout the year (which i think was posted earlier in the thread) and all his recommended plays are highly juiced (lets say -150 average), the chances of me tailing him and actually making a profit going forward from this point on arent too great when compared to the potential losses. I would lose what, nearly ~10.5u for each series that loses (lets assume 1.5u lost on A, 3.5 on B, and 5.5u on C). Assuming 4-5 more losses this season, according to his average, that's 40-50u total lost on losing series from this point on. As someone who would "fade" him, I would bet the opposite, non-juiced lines (which protects myself from losing a lot more money than actually tailing him) and i'd also protect myself in case his system goes over the 4-5 more losses that is estimated

edit: i just saw your post that has the estimate of 4.4 losses per season. that's lower than i thought it would be but im still a bit skeptical that i can start tailing now and make money from this point on (mostly because of what i stated earlier, you had an amazing first half to the season). If you'd like, i can keep you informed through PM of what that "fading" profit/loss would be on a weekly basis

This system starts at the beginning of July - so you've actually only missed about 4 weeks of action. But, it sounds a lot like you've got your mind set on fading - and you've actually got me a little curious.

So, tonight I'll research it a little bit starting with this season. If I were you, I would at least wait to see those results before just arbitrarily deciding to fade.

[ledjend]

<br>
<br>

To clarify (and maybe to beat a dead horse) ... all 4 A games lost yesterday... but we are only chasing the Cards loss today (fading ATL) with a B game today playing on Balt
and starting a new A play on CIN (fading St L now) today, correct?

And B plays for the other 3 games are to come??
I guess I want to be sure (and maybe that's why people were having trouble tracking/fading before...) So we'll fade mets, Kc, and the Angels (as mentioned in quote) tomorrow or later when it's a good matchup??

1) 3 of the 4 A games lost yesterday - Dodgers won on the Alternate Run Line (see posts 138 and 164 for further explanation)

2) Yes, we are fading Atlanta in a B Bet today - but the Cincinnati A bet is a new series playing ON Cincinnati, not AGAINST St Louis. Which probably won't make much of a difference in this particular case since they're scheduled to play a 3 game series anyway.

3) Yes, the other 2 pending B bets will be played tomorrow - both in the same game. One series is being played ON Houston, the other AGAINST the Angels. Although it's one game, you should still bet as if it's two.

[ledjend]

each one of his series arent random bets, they are meant to bet on or against a particular team. however, i think he's betting on the dodgers and astros, not fading the mets and royals since he didnt acknowledge that he's betting against those teams yesterday like he did against ATL and LAA

Bingo!

[ledjend]

why fade him when he still has to make 60 units

Very good question.

[sportsbetter21]

why fade him when he still has to make 60 units and how are you going to fade? I swear ppl are morons, just put them on your ignore list ledlend, so you never have to see most of these people's BS

Set up and fund a sportsbetting account with $10,000. I prefer heritage or bookmaker. I will play this system 100% no questions asked. I will even be willing to split the winnings 50/50. 60+ units of guaranteed profits. 30 units each.
I will play 1% of bankroll like every responsible sports bettor should so $100 units its an easy 3 grand for each of us!!!

Everyones a winner, right?
What say you?

[sportsbetter21]

Ha the sarcasm is strong w this one but in all seriousness, the guy showed that he could be consistent w winning his three game series. if we assume he's gonna lose 5-6 series throughout the year (which i think was posted earlier in the thread) and all his recommended plays are highly juiced (lets say -150 average), the chances of me tailing him and actually making a profit going forward from this point on arent too great when compared to the potential losses. I would lose what, nearly ~10.5u for each series that loses (lets assume 1.5u lost on A, 3.5 on B, and 5.5u on C). Assuming 4-5 more losses this season, according to his average, that's 40-50u total lost on losing series from this point on. As someone who would "fade" him, I would bet the opposite, non-juiced lines (which protects myself from losing a lot more money than actually tailing him) and i'd also protect myself in case his system goes over the 4-5 more losses that is estimated

edit: i just saw your post that has the estimate of 4.4 losses per season. that's lower than i thought it would be but im still a bit skeptical that i can start tailing now and make money from this point on (mostly because of what i stated earlier, you had an amazing first half to the season). If you'd like, i can keep you informed through PM of what that "fading" profit/loss would be on a weekly basis

Just having some fun thats all
Im not here to bash anyone.
My questioning (and thats what it is if you read carefully, i have questioned the validity and the process of this system) seems to threaten those who blindly follow.
You will take your lumps, everyone does. But it seems like you have the ability to think so Im sure you will find your way.
Have fun with it, if you make some cash by end of august, great!!!
if you fade and it doesnt work out, just learn from it and move on

Good luck on your future endeavors

[keel44]

I will say this.

If I found this system that made this much money and all of the back testing showed great results, I would sell it to people. Why not earn guaranteed money along with your gambling winnings.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/27

Flat Betting (Entered day 51-31, -4.7 u)

- Cin +1.5 at -155 - Loss
- Bal at -163 - Win



1-1, -.55 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 41-22, +6.75 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 11-10, -12 u

Year to date combined - 52-32, -5.25 u




Chase (Entered day 50-1, +33.5 u)

- Cin A bet - Loss
- Bal B bet (vs Atl) - Win



Year to date - 51-1, +34.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[MMA_Oracle]

Just having some fun thats all
Im not here to bash anyone.
My questioning (and thats what it is if you read carefully, i have questioned the validity and the process of this system) seems to threaten those who blindly follow.
You will take your lumps, everyone does. But it seems like you have the ability to think so Im sure you will find your way.
Have fun with it, if you make some cash by end of august, great!!!
if you fade and it doesnt work out, just learn from it and move on

Good luck on your future endeavors

yeah i realized you weren't being serious. and i agree, its foolish to go into a system and fully tail expecting to hit the lottery. Im not saying its not possible but the chances are very slim. and thank you