MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[ledjend]

He has about a 26.9 unit profit right now. He is on pace to go (135 - 3) the rest of the way. Assuming each loss would be about 19 units lost (3 * 19 = 57)......

135 + 26.9 in total profits = 161.9
161.9 - 57 additional losses = 104.9 net profit

* All of this is according to his 5 year back testing stats on page 3*

In other words we are right on track

You make my life easier, keel - thank you!

[bob6199]

I need to start using your lines Bob. I had:

-195, -205. -190 = -25.1 units (rounding to -25)

O i am just using closing lines of pinnacle, i have no idea what lines i got at 5Dimes. I have always used pinnacle as a way to judge units loss. It's what i do for all the chases i follow.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/6

Flat Betting (Entered day 78-46, -3.66 u)

- SD +1.5 at -190 - Loss
- StL at -155 - Win
- Was at -175 - Win


2-1, +.1 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 56-34, +2.64 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 24-13, -6.20 u

Year to date combined - 80-47, -3.56 u



Chase (Entered day 77-2, +48.5 u)

- SD C bet (vs Mil) - Loss...-195, -205, -190 = -25.1 u (rounded to -25)
- StL A bet (vs Cin) - Win
- Was B bet (vs Ari) - Win


Year to date - 79-3, +25.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[pm9964]

There are filters.

Oh cool, what filters did you find to limit these last two?

[pm9964]

Let's get back to winning today!

[ledjend]

Oh cool, what filters did you find to limit these last two?

I'm always looking for ways to improve and maximize profits. It's a continuing work in progress. You are in good hands - don't worry.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/7


- Det A bet (vs Bos) - currently -118, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -220 (708 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[sportsbetter21]

I'm always looking for ways to improve and maximize profits. It's a continuing work in progress. You are in good hands - don't worry.

Your history suggest you should make 75+ units before end of the season along with 2-3 more losses in store?
Im down for that

[pm9964]

I'm always looking for ways to improve and maximize profits. It's a continuing work in progress. You are in good hands - don't worry.

Oh I understand, I believe in you and appreciate your hard work. I'm 1968 over on another forum and I've been chasing for 18 years. I'm always looking for new filters and ways to minimize losses.

[ledjend]

Your history suggest you should make 75+ units before end of the season along with 2-3 more losses in store?
Im down for that

Yes - a lot of plays in the next 6 weeks.

[ledjend]

Oh I understand, I believe in you and appreciate your hard work. I'm 1968 over on another forum and I've been chasing for 18 years. I'm always looking for new filters and ways to minimize losses.

Happy to have you in the thread pm and looking forward to making some money together!

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/7

Flat Betting (Entered day 80-47, -3.56 u)

- Det +1.5 at -175 - Loss


0-1, -1.75 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 56-35, +.89 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 24-13, -6.20 u

Year to date combined - 80-48, -5.31 u



Chase (Entered day 79-3, +25.5 u)

- Det A bet (vs Bos) - Loss


Year to date - 79-3, +25.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/8


- NYY A bet - currently +132, play Run Line +1.5 at -140 (105 est)
- Pit A bet (vs LAD) - currently -127, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (405 est)
- NYM A bet (vs TB) - currently -113, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (610 est)
- Was A bet - currently -182, play Money Line (705 est)
- Det B bet (vs Bos) - currently -105, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (708 est)
- Min A bet (vs Cle) - currently +132, play Run Line +1.5 at -170 (710 est)
- SD A bet (vs Phi) - currently -183, play Money Line (840 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[Jakpot]

Thanks Legend. . Agree with all the bets. May the profits hail today

[benkyoq]

there's a pitcher change in Nationals game, I guess that play is cancelled for us?

[tr4sh]

as far as i know, everything is based on closing line, so no.

[ledjend]

there's a pitcher change in Nationals game, I guess that play is cancelled for us?

A qualifying series is based solely on team performance so a pitching change does not affect the validity of a play - Washington is still a go.

[bob6199]

Pit is a ML play now BTW

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/8

Flat Betting (Entered day 80-48, -5.31 u)

- NYY +1.5 at -120 - Loss
- Min +1.5 at -195 - Loss
- SD at -205 - Loss
- Pitt at -151 - Win
- NYM +1.5 at -270 - Win
- Was at -205 - Win
- Det +1.5 at -180 - Win


4-3, -1.2 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 58-37, -.26 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 26-14, -6.25 u

Year to date combined - 84-51, -6.51 u



Chase (Entered day 79-3, +25.5 u)

- NYY A bet - Loss
- Min A bet (vs Cle) - Loss
- SD A bet - Loss
- Pit A bet (vs LAD) - Win
- NYM A bet (vs TB) - Win
- Was A bet - Win
- Det B bet (vs Bos) - Win


Year to date - 83-3, +29.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/9


- NYY B bet - currently -138, play Money Line (105 est)
- Bos A bet - currently +112, play Run Line +1.5 at -180 (108 est)
- Min B bet (vs Cle) - currently +143, play Run Line +1.5 at -160 (110 est)
- Min A bet - currently +143, play Run Line +1.5 at -160 (110 est)
- SD B bet - currently -180, play Money Line (410 est)


Yes, Minnesota should be treated as 2 separate plays today. The B bet AGAINST Cleveland, and a brand new series starting ON themselves. Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[VegasPlayer]

Do you know of anyone offering Twins +13.5?

[ledjend]

Do you know of anyone offering Twins +13.5?

Good one.

[MMA_Oracle]

No plays today? Because you should have a nice chunk of money on Minn

[stacks on deck]

No plays today? Because you should have a nice chunk of money on Minn

Already posted

[Coach Potato]

twins getting their shit pushed in

[tr4sh]

damn looks like we're looking at 3 C bets... this should be interesting

[sportsbetter21]

damn looks like we're looking at 3 C bets... this should be interesting

best case scenario is +3
Does anyone know the potential worst case scenario?

[chief42]

best case scenario is +3
Does anyone know the potential worst case scenario?

If the odds were -150 on average for all three C bets we could lose approximately 52.62 units in total. Obviously that number could vary depending on the juice for each game. This is what I would lose given the lines I have already wagered on and assuming the next 3 games are at -150 line. Yours may vary. Either way, these bets will have a large impact on the season going forward. BOL to all of us who are playing these hopefully we get the

[ledjend]

What can I say? Brutal ending to a brutal week.

The next 2 days will tell us a lot.

No risk. No reward.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/9

Flat Betting (Entered day 84-51, -6.51 u)

- NYY at -151 - Loss
- Min +1.5 at -150 - Loss
- Min +1.5 at -150 - Loss
- SD at -185 - Loss
- Bos +1.5 at -165 - Win


1-4, -5.36 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 59-41, -5.62 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 26-14, -6.25 u

Year to date combined - 85-55, -11.87 u



Chase (Entered day 83-3, +29.5 u)

- NYY B bet - Loss
- Min A bet - Loss
- Min B bet (vs Cle) - Loss
- SD B bet - Loss
- Bos A bet - Win


Year to date - 84-3, +30.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/10


- NYM A bet - currently -196, play Money Line (710 est)
- LAA A bet (vs CHW) - currently +121, play Run Line +1.5 at -190 (810 est)
- SD A bet (vs Cin) - currently -148, play Money Line (1010 est)
- SD C bet - currently -148, play Money Line (1010 est)
- LAD A bet - currently -137, play Money Line (1010 est)
- Bal A bet - currently -120, play Alt Run Line at -240 (1010 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[BOA12]

Great system if you love action today-I do bol legend

[keel44]

If this somehow starts to fail, would you then be interested in telling us how you came up with the plays?

[BOA12]

Think legend is a magician by trade....

[Grivas_Digeni]

If this somehow starts to fail, would you then be interested in telling us how you came up with the plays?

if this goes as planned and we make a killing, will you eat your hat with no salt and upload a video?