Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

fyi:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/200742-fyi-cubs-braves-pitching-change.html#post2005588

[woodman663]

My picks today:

COL/WAS under 10: -109, 2 units ("best bet")
DET/KC under 8.5: -108, 1 unit
CWS: -172, 1 unit
NYM/LAD under 8.5: -118, 1 unit

Tailing bet:
ARI: -162, 1 unit (tailing both hufster and pimike)

Good luck to everyone.

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

Carefull with the totals, my opinion, gl

[woodman663]

Carefull with the totals, my opinion, gl

So far they've been pretty kind to me. But thanks for the advice. We'll see if it was a mistake not just to blindly trail your picks. ;-)

[Axis]

Totals are the way to go!!

I love the unders. Only one pitcher has to do his job, and as long as the other pitcher doesn't get blown up...you're set if you've done your homework.

Leans tonight:
White Sox -1.5

[therber2]

CIN 1st 5 Innings +150 risk 2 units L
FLA/SFO Under 8.5 +100 L
ATL/CHC Under 8.5 -120 W

Yesterday went 1-2, losing 2.16u. On to today's action :

ARI -150 win 1 unit

Doug Davis vs. the Padres = $$$. He is 6-1 over the last 4 seasons with a 1.16 WHIP.

BOS -1.5 -120 risk 2 units

Boston's playing at home, coming off a shut out, getting beat by 6 runs. Since 2004 the Red Sox are 8-1 at home coming off a 6 run loss, they are 11-4 coming off a shutout. They are obviously a team that rebounds well. Throw in the fact that we've got one of the more lopsided pitching match-ups you're going to see. I'll take the RL on this one.

That's all for now.

Record : 14-11-1 +4.46u

I like the observation. I saw that too ; however I decided to pass on this one. Most likely they will win though I think.

Fogs nice write up. I was wondering when you'd get in. CWS...man I dunno can't pull the trigger on these ones guys, but best of luck! They both look like good plays to me guys.

[therber2]

Totals are the way to go!!

I love the unders. Only one pitcher has to do his job, and as long as the other pitcher doesn't get blown up...you're set if you've done your homework.

Leans tonight:
White Sox -1.5

If I am correct unders have been the way to go this season. Where is HUF. Am I right on that? I feel in general more comfortable playing an under. How many more or less runs have we had this season compared to last. I guess since it isn't over we'd have to look at the runs/innings played %

[hufster]

If I am correct unders have been the way to go this season. Where is HUF. Am I right on that? I feel in general more comfortable playing an under. How many more or less runs have we had this season compared to last. I guess since it isn't over we'd have to look at the runs/innings played %

2009 Season O/U : 556-616-51 52.56% Unders

There has been a very slight edge toward the unders in the past few years for the most part. This year more so than usual.

[TodaysAction]

For Tuesday, here's the start of them:

FL/SF,
TX/LAA,
BOS,
DET,

I will not let the pair () deter myself for getting a unit's profit.
Tiger's was split up between accounts but listing it here as one (total).

Yesterday did end up taking 9.75 units but the record ended up being 2-6-0.

BOS is now

[BamaBill67]

New York @ Minnesota

I am picking the Yanks for one reason, DRAMA. The game seems pretty even, or close enough, but after the Yankee skipper getting tossed yesterday and they feel they got screwed on some calls I am going to give them the edge. NYY -130


Texas @ LAA

Texas is hitting the ball well and Lackey is .500 against the Rangers. Nippert use to be in the Rangers rotation last year and usually had high scoring games. OVER 9.5

[TodaysAction]

Minnesota Twins +1.5 -150 (1 unit)
Minn +130 (.5 units)
LAA -170 (.5 units)
Mets +1.5 -135 (1 unit)
Mets +117 (.5 units)
NYM/LOS 8.5 -105 (1 unit)
KC Royals +190 (.5 units)
KC/DET 8.5 -115 (1 unit)
BAL +130 (.5 units)
Oak +215 (1 unit)
OAK/BOS 9 -110 (1 unit)
Brewers -143 (1 unit)
FLA/SFO 8 -115 (.5 units)
Cubs -110 (1 unit)
Phillies -137 (.5 unit)

Lotto Parlay:
+798 KC + OAK (.25 units)

GL tonight.

[TodaysAction]

Own bets went 0-2-0, Cincinnati one wasn't even close.

Overall today I went 4-3-0, up just +0.10 units.

Bets YTD: 7-7-0: +1.28 units (tailed bets not included but "best bets" are)
"Best bets" YTD: 3-1-0: +3.89 units
Tailed bets YTD: 3-1-0: +2.10 units

Something I learned to help myself coup with a loss was it doesn't matter if you lose by 1 or 100, it's just one lose and they don't take any more from your account from your account (unless you go the action points route, not endorsed).

Glad you were able to increase your account(s).

[TodaysAction]

Tuesday .........

braves -105 3 units
reds +135 3 units
det RL -105 5 units

Thanks for adding your three for tonight.

The DET RL is looking strong - others are being recorded to see later, following the OAK/BOS game.

[TodaysAction]

Hello Gentlemen: took a few days off to recoup........looks like you all have been doing well. Keep up the good work............

Cleveland at Chicago:

Cleveland:
Although they have won 2 of their last 3, I'm not convinced they will stay with Chicago tonight. They are only batting .182 vs left-handers in their last 10 and their BP is about 1.5 ER per game higher than Chicago. The Indians WHIP is .30 higher too. Sowers is 1-2 in his last 3 games and a 6.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.73.

Chicago:
Throwing the lefty Buehrle tonight. In his last 3, he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00 Although the Sox have lost 2 of their last 3 (on the road), they are 4-2 in their last 6 home games. They are batting .369 vs left handers in their last 10, and they took 3 of 4 last week in Cleveland.

PICK: Chicago 2 units (-150)
Record: 25-17-1 (+14 units)

Welcome back Foghorn!

[TodaysAction]

CIN 1st 5 Innings +150 risk 2 units L
FLA/SFO Under 8.5 +100 L
ATL/CHC Under 8.5 -120 W

Yesterday went 1-2, losing 2.16u. On to today's action :

ARI -150 win 1 unit

Doug Davis vs. the Padres = $$$. He is 6-1 over the last 4 seasons with a 1.16 WHIP.

BOS -1.5 -120 risk 2 units

Boston's playing at home, coming off a shut out, getting beat by 6 runs. Since 2004 the Red Sox are 8-1 at home coming off a 6 run loss, they are 11-4 coming off a shutout. They are obviously a team that rebounds well. Throw in the fact that we've got one of the more lopsided pitching match-ups you're going to see. I'll take the RL on this one.

That's all for now.

Record : 14-11-1 +4.46u

Thanks for crunching the numbers for people here today.
Like the AZ stat, one unit on it based on that diddy. I'd like to see BOS get a couple more to make the RL for you be easier.

[TodaysAction]

Take a good look at JV's number's from tonight, in particular take notice of the K's and BB's. Solid, solid play on him at home (1H and/or game). Put that one away for later this season in his next home start.

[TodaysAction]

Oh boy, aren't we thrilled to see homerun relief pitcher (Joel Z.) take the mound? He walked his batter - not a good sign. BENCH THIS CLOWN NOW BEFORE HE BLOWS THIS GAME!!!

[TodaysAction]

He got `em to go fishing on a high fast one! Looks like he survived the inning. Tough choice, him or Rodney to close it
out.

[TodaysAction]

Rodney takes the mound.

We are so doomed.

[TodaysAction]

That was strike three?

Great, he walked the next guy.

[TodaysAction]

Tigers pen is warming up - what does that tell you?

[TodaysAction]

Pop out to short right.

Two down.

[TodaysAction]

2 and 2 with 2 out ...

swing and a miss, strike three.

Tigers get the win.

[shoebox]

TA were hittinh 100% when in agreement........

[TodaysAction]

TA were hittinh 100% when in agreement........

Scary isn't it? I know it won't continue forever but history shows when we're on the same side/team, it's a beautiful thing.

[TodaysAction]

3-0-0 tonight so far with two pending and adding 22.00 units to the accounts.

[brandon m]

I'm looking at the picks you had but I don't understand what all those symbols mean. Can someone elaborate.

[woodman663]

My picks today:

COL/WAS under 10: -109, 2 units ("best bet") WIN
DET/KC under 8.5: -108, 1 unit LOSS
CWS: -172, 1 unit WIN
NYM/LAD under 8.5: -118, 1 unit WIN

Tailing bet:
ARI: -162, 1 unit (tailing both hufster and pimike) WIN

Good luck to everyone.

Going 4-1-0 but I don't want to be proud, it was mightily close in 3 of them, winning just by one run each. Credit to the Dodgers for shutting the Mets out, or to the Mets for simply not scoring?

+2.89 on the day.

Bets YTD: 10-8-0: +4.17 units (tailed bets not included but "best bets" are)
"Best bets" YTD: 4-1-0: +5.73 units
Tailed bets YTD: 4-1-0: +2.72 units

[therber2]

What a bad day

Minnesota Twins +1.5 -150 (1 unit)
Minn +130 (.5 units)
LAA -170 (.5 units)
Mets +1.5 -135 (1 unit)
Mets +117 (.5 units)
NYM/LOS 8.5 -105 (1 unit)
KC Royals +190 (.5 units)
KC/DET 8.5 -115 (1 unit)
BAL +130 (.5 units)
Oak +215 (1 unit)
OAK/BOS 9 -110 (1 unit)
Brewers -143 (1 unit)
FLA/SFO 8 -115 (.5 units)
Cubs -110 (1 unit)
Phillies -137 (.5 unit)

Lotto Parlay:
+798 KC + OAK (.25 units)

I'll calculate this later as I cry myself to sleep.

Record: 62-59-1 51.2% (+8.38 units)

[BamaBill67]

My picks today:

COL/WAS under 10: -109, 2 units ("best bet")
DET/KC under 8.5: -108, 1 unit
CWS: -172, 1 unit
NYM/LAD under 8.5: -118, 1 unit

Tailing bet:
ARI: -162, 1 unit (tailing both hufster and pimike)

Good luck to everyone.

Excellent job . I know you are shocked on that Col/Was under 10, just as I am. I posted 2 bets here and threw a last minute wager on that under. With 8 runs scored by the bottom of the 4th I just knew it was sunk, but the bullpen hung on .

[woodman663]

Nats bullpen actually doing its job, what is the world coming to? lol

[woodman663]

Looking like there's some good plays today, but perhaps I'm being deceived?

Leaning towards Dodgers, a good team going up against a horrible pitcher with some horrible hitting behind him (as of late). Pirates are at a good price against a pitcher they've been doing good against (Pirates are relatively good against lefties) and with a pitcher that had a great last outing. Marlins are falling apart now, and with a shaky pitcher who doesn't eat up a lot of innings, against a lights-out rookie with a team that's great at home...

Rangers are dogs against E.Santana who has yet to regain his former form. Rays are again pretty heavy favorites against a lefty, they showed yet again yesterday they really don't like lefties, and this time they don't have Shields to back them, but Kazmir who's still getting to full sharpness. StLouis is dog against a pitcher who is 1-5 with a 6.08 ERA (1.73 WHIP) in 7 starts at home, whereas their own pitcher seems to have fixed his previous problems according to MLB.com.

As for the totals, perhaps the HOU/PIT over 8 or the NYM/LAD over 9 or ARI/SD under 9, but I don't like any of them enough to pick them unless some experienced bettors here are going for them.

Discuss.

[TodaysAction]

I'll calculate this later as I cry myself to sleep.

Record: 62-59-1 51.2% (+8.38 units)

This will pass and you'll resume your winning ways.

[TodaysAction]

Going 4-1-0 but I don't want to be proud, it was mightily close in 3 of them, winning just by one run each. Credit to the Dodgers for shutting the Mets out, or to the Mets for simply not scoring?

+2.89 on the day.

Bets YTD: 10-8-0: +4.17 units (tailed bets not included but "best bets" are)
"Best bets" YTD: 4-1-0: +5.73 units
Tailed bets YTD: 4-1-0: +2.72 units

Glad you ended up 4-1 and +2.89 units but there's no reason to not be proud of a 80% win rate for the day. Continued success to you.

[TodaysAction]

Here are last night's final numbers: 4-1-0, +21.80 units.