Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[therber2]

Really was surprised you wagered on the Cubs Thursday as
I thought you said you pass on them but root for them - maybe
I'm mistaken. When their is a majority of regular contributors to this thread on a team and/or side, overall it's been a cash positive situation. When these times have occurred, I will normally add anywhere between 25 and 50% more on that play [same here ]- unless it exceeds my how much at risk amount/level for that day at one time. As I just posted a few minutes ago, I'll have a user's guide posted shortly/soon. None of these are that tough to figure out and all of them make sense.

Huuuuge difference here TA. I said I'd never bet against my favorite team. If I think they are going to win I'll wager on them, and my only problem will be that practically every time this season I've wagered on them I've lost. I hope today marks a turning point for the boys. Maybe I will start wagering on them more frequently now.

I'm just joking about the dolphin and understand most just not 100%. Have a good forth!

[woodman663]

Looking forward to that explanation, TA. Your picks are great, and I'll be watching this thread closely to see if people like Foghorn, berber and you agree on picks.

[TodaysAction]

I'm conservative. As a conservative bettor I truly wish my record was actually 45% with +300 units.

That's a great way to look at it, especially for baseball. Based on volume alone. That's one of the reason's I have to laugh AT some people. One, they don't know everything in play as I don't list every wager. Overall for every M.L.B. wager made this season, I'm at 49% - which is lower than my on-line record but there are more units earned/made. Two, a high win percentage (to me) is only REALLY important if a person flat bets (same amount every time). Three, find a way that works for you and bang the out of it.

[shoebox]

That's a great way to look at it, especially for baseball. Based on volume alone. That's one of the reason's I have to laugh AT some people. One, they don't know everything in play as I don't list every wager. Overall for every M.L.B. wager made this season, I'm at 49% - which is lower than my on-line record but there are more units earned/made. Two, a high win percentage (to me) is only REALLY important if a person flat bets (same amount every time). Three, find a way that works for you and bang the out of it.

agree here 100%, records are shit units are gold....would you rather have a flashy record or deep pockets.....Ill take the deep pockets sir.....records are for touts that pry on the weak....weighted gambling/investing works for me

[TodaysAction]

Huuuuge difference here TA. I said I'd never bet against my favorite team. If I think they are going to win I'll wager on them, and my only problem will be that practically every time this season I've wagered on them I've lost. I hope today marks a turning point for the boys. Maybe I will start wagering on them more frequently now.

I'm just joking about the dolphin and understand most just not 100%. Have a good forth!

My goof, sorry knew there was something about them that made the recent play stand out. Each person carries a certain weight for the boosts. The boost is derived from overall, recent form and a couple other tidbits. The "magic" number is 75 and above. Thank you and to you as well.

[TodaysAction]

Looking forward to that explanation, TA. Your picks are great, and I'll be watching this thread closely to see if people like Foghorn, berber and you agree on picks.

As I understand it, woodman663, we do not cap the games the same way and that is why when there is a full agreement I will not worry about going another 50% (amount in play limits) of my original wager IF I can still obtain the same line. If not, I'll still hit it but a little less. Don't know where these guys have been "hiding" before but am glad they contribute on a daily basis.

Someone you did not mention, that deserves recognition is t4_ever. At first didn't post selections very often but has been adding them on a more steady diet and filling my accounts and wallet with the WNBA listings. A perfect example of this was Thursday's DET @ NY game - he posted NY minus the points, the next post someone made the comment they suck (or similar) and I asked them for an explanation which I figured wasn't coming and wasn't stunned that it didn't & the selection won (again). This thread has much to offer and I hope you become a regular contributor to it.

Now then, you should add your two cents every once in a while as well. After all, if you can take the time to make a post in here, you can take a minute to make a play/selection as well - no explanations are needed here and if you keep a record great, if not that's fine as well.

[TodaysAction]

agree here 100%, records are shit units are gold....would you rather have a flashy record or deep pockets.....Ill take the deep pockets sir.....records are for touts that pry on the weak....weighted gambling/investing works for me

shoebox I couldn't have said it any better. Something I will add to this is, if 'you' are "cold" with your selections look at some of the other people who are more proven with success or are "hot" and go with them or scale it back for a while or take a day/two off to clear the mindset. I've done this a few times within the past week as I've seen who's been hot/on fire and blindly tailed - only because I know the style of that capper. Each person has something of value and we can learn from each other.

[woodman663]

Since you guys are so kind I will post my picks here, even though I'm only just starting.

Over the past days:
28/06/09 : 2/3/0 -1.5 units
29/06/09 : 3/1/0 +13 units (really lucky with Dodgers RL here)
30/06/09 : 2/2/0 +1 unit
01/07/09 : 4/3/0 +2.6 units
02/07/09 : 3/3/0 +1.3 units

Not posting this to boast (my units are really tiny compared to yours), but to show that since reading this forum as a lurker I've been doing a lot better than when I started out. Must be a bit beginner's luck though.

I will not include that record in future records when I start posting my picks.

[t4_ever]

Thanx TA...

I have the hot for WNBA..

[woodman663]

My first pick is the Cardinals. They're featuring Pineiro who's been solid (1.18 WHIP on the season, 0.66 WHIP in last 3 starts) but unlucky with run support. His opposing pitcher is a guy with a career 1.82 WHIP in 19 starts, with a 2.09 WHIP last season (8 starts) and 2.04 WHIP in 2 starts this season, facing the Cleveland Indians twice (not exactly the best team in the Majors). With the Cardinals coming off a tough series with the strong Giants, and Cincinnati struggling to get runs, the Cards should be heavier favourites than they are imo.

Cardinals to win, 2 units.

Also leaning towards:
-Mets
-COL/ARI under 9.5
-KC/CWS under 7.5
-MIN/DET under 9

But want to hear you thoughts first.

[Beastxxx]

Thanks guys I agree eveyone has something to contribute.
I am new and although I know baseball really well I am new to betting and O am constantly losing so I am trying to follow you guys.

Can someone give me an idea as to whose posts to follow.
I am betting proline as I dont have enough money to deposit.
I am so far in the red I have to win on small bets.

O lost with the yanks and the reds yesterday.
Did anyone bet on seattle and atlanta?
If they did I should follow their posts.

By the way I am thinking today
toronto
seattle
reds
texas
rockies
kc
twins

can I have some input please?
Thanks

[woodman663]

My final picks (I'm going to be away for the rest of the day so I made them now):

STL (-139) 4 units
NYY/TOR Under 9 (-111) 1 unit
FLA/PIT Over 8.5 (-106) 0.5 unit
BOS/SEA Under 8.5 (-109) 0.5 unit
COL/ARI Under 8.5 (-111) 0.5 unit

Also one parlay:
STL ML + DET/MIN Under 9 risking 1 unit to win 6.82 units

Leans that didn't make the cut (will keep a separate record for them, all assuming a bet of 1 unit):
TOR (+155)
PIT (+130)
NYM (+120)

GL to all!

EDIT: I just saw thay my odds (unibet.com) are horrible compared to some of those listed here under "live odds". The problem is I've looked at other European betting sites and they offer comparable odds. With my tiny bankroll switching doesn't make much sense, so I guess I'll have to make do.

[Axis]

Early, I'm liking the under on the NYY/TOR game...I got it at 9.5

Let's cash today!

--And if anyone has any ideas, because...generally I'm a flat bettor, unless I have a hunch, and I'll throw more...does anyone have...a way, or theory they use to choose when to wager more??

I'm just curious

[TodaysAction]

Since you guys are so kind I will post my picks here, even though I'm only just starting.

Over the past days:
28/06/09 : 2/3/0 -1.5 units
29/06/09 : 3/1/0 +13 units (really lucky with Dodgers RL here)
30/06/09 : 2/2/0 +1 unit
01/07/09 : 4/3/0 +2.6 units
02/07/09 : 3/3/0 +1.3 units

Not posting this to boast (my units are really tiny compared to yours), but to show that since reading this forum as a lurker I've been doing a lot better than when I started out. Must be a bit beginner's luck though.

I will not include that record in future records when I start posting my picks.

Good afternoon woodman663,

Amount of risk is not that important to me as everyone plays at a level they are comfortable. I know people whose units are $1, $10, $100, $1,000 etc - if it works for them, it works for me.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks guys I agree eveyone has something to contribute.
I am new and although I know baseball really well I am new to betting and O am constantly losing so I am trying to follow you guys.

Can someone give me an idea as to whose posts to follow.
I am betting proline as I dont have enough money to deposit.
I am so far in the red I have to win on small bets.

O lost with the yanks and the reds yesterday.
Did anyone bet on seattle and atlanta?
If they did I should follow their posts.

By the way I am thinking today
toronto
seattle
reds
texas
rockies
kc
twins

can I have some input please?
Thanks

I use a family system that has been consistent over the years. While I do post a portion of the days activities, I do not post each and every single wager.

I was on SEA last night for a unit. I'm fairly certain there were a few others in this thread as well. Only thing here I had with CIN was a tie in with AZ () - which lost.

Ultimately the final choice rests with each person. Read the various posts and see who is on whom and compare/contrast that with what you have chosen.

Try to remember, not everyone is in the same time-zone and hours will vary accordingly and most people in here will respond to questions/comments.

I have "evening" plays/selections/wagers for today and will be in and out during the majority of the day as I'm working on getting the pit ready for another long slow cooking later tonight.

[hufster]

Congrats on the CHW win guys. As everyone has said, it seems to lean in our favor when we're in agreement.

SDG -105 L
SDG/HOU Under 7 -110 L
PHI/ATL Under 8 -105 W
CHW -1.5 +120 W

Went 2-2 for +0.15u yesterday.

For the early games, I've got :

CHC -1.5 +130

Just take a glance at Suppan's career numbers vs. the Cubs compared to Zambano's vs. the Brewers. The Cubs play far better when they are in front of the home crowd. The hitting over the last 5 has been pretty even. I'm taking the Cubs, playing the early game at home, a situation they know best.

For later :

SFO -1.5 +180

Over the last 5 :

AVG : .294 vs. .234
SLG : .439 vs. .335

Pitching : Paulino has horrible road numbers with a 1.94 WHIP. Sadowski has very little information to go off of, but I think this unknown will keep the Astros hitters off-balance.

CHW +135

This is actually more of a system play for me, but I think I can back it up. Greinke has some nasty stuff, there is no questioning that, but the White Sox hitters are on an absolute tear. If you look at Greinke's numbers vs. the Sox lineup compared to Dank's numbers vs. the Royals lineup, there is actually only a very slight advantage to Greinke. I'm banking on the Sox hot bats to even that playing field.

Good luck tonight fellas.

Record 8-4-1 +5.2u

[TodaysAction]

My final picks (I'm going to be away for the rest of the day so I made them now):

STL (-139) 4 units
NYY/TOR Under 9 (-111) 1 unit
FLA/PIT Over 8.5 (-106) 0.5 unit
BOS/SEA Under 8.5 (-109) 0.5 unit
COL/ARI Under 8.5 (-111) 0.5 unit

Also one parlay:
STL ML + DET/MIN Under 9 risking 1 unit to win 6.82 units

Leans that didn't make the cut (will keep a separate record for them, all assuming a bet of 1 unit):
TOR (+155)
PIT (+130)
NYM (+120)

GL to all!

EDIT: I just saw thay my odds (unibet.com) are horrible compared to some of those listed here under "live odds". The problem is I've looked at other European betting sites and they offer comparable odds. With my tiny bankroll switching doesn't make much sense, so I guess I'll have to make do.

woodman663,

I see many totals for you today, is this your norm and what type of success do you have with them? Many a player I know do not opt for going the totals route opting for getting the winner. If this works better for you, GREAT!

Since you're not USA based have you tried to set up an account with Pinnacle? When they were taking American clients, they had some of the better lines in the game.

[TodaysAction]

Early, I'm liking the under on the NYY/TOR game...I got it at 9.5

Let's cash today!

--And if anyone has any ideas, because...generally I'm a flat bettor, unless I have a hunch, and I'll throw more...does anyone have...a way, or theory they use to choose when to wager more??

I'm just curious

Hi Axis,

I passed on the game because it breaks one of the rules (stay off lone games as the lines are usually so tight one could bounce a quarter off them).

When your selection has a significant advantage in how you do things, you could up your unit (this pertains only for flat betting). For example, team a's starting pitcher is notoriously a slow starter (until August) and team b's batters are warm-to-hot; something then would be to consider the over for the first half of the game. There are many situational plays that can, and should, be made during the season. Track results, find the patterns, earn the money.

[TodaysAction]

Congrats on the CHW win guys. As everyone has said, it seems to lean in our favor when we're in agreement.

SDG -105 L
SDG/HOU Under 7 -110 L
PHI/ATL Under 8 -105 W
CHW -1.5 +120 W

Went 2-2 for +0.15u yesterday.

For the early games, I've got :

CHC -1.5 +130

Just take a glance at Suppan's career numbers vs. the Cubs compared to Zambano's vs. the Brewers. The Cubs play far better when they are in front of the home crowd. The hitting over the last 5 has been pretty even. I'm taking the Cubs, playing the early game at home, a situation they know best.

For later :

SFO -1.5 +180

Over the last 5 :

AVG : .294 vs. .234
SLG : .439 vs. .335

Pitching : Paulino has horrible road numbers with a 1.94 WHIP. Sadowski has very little information to go off of, but I think this unknown will keep the Astros hitters off-balance.

CHW +135

This is actually more of a system play for me, but I think I can back it up. Greinke has some nasty stuff, there is no questioning that, but the White Sox hitters are on an absolute tear. If you look at Greinke's numbers vs. the Sox lineup compared to Dank's numbers vs. the Royals lineup, there is actually only a very slight advantage to Greinke. I'm banking on the Sox hot bats to even that playing field.

Good luck tonight fellas.

Record 8-4-1 +5.2u

Real nice write hufster. Right now the giants need a little line movement for me to make them a go. Good job in make unit/portion there of yesterday - every little bit helps. BOL with your stuff today/tonight.

[Rixsaw]

all good talk and no trash. Great job guys. I'm new to base and testing various ideas, so I don't have much to contribute. But I'll be listening and learning the strategy.

[Foghorn]

Good Afternoon Guys. Axis posted my play yesterday b-cuz I was out on the lynx hitting the little white ball (87 on a real easy course, coulda/shoulda been better)

Looks like we are all doing well as of late, so let's keep it going and making money

Detroit at Minnesota:

Detroit:
Rookie's first start tonight, Lucas French-(fry). Has only pitched 3 innings in relief and has given up no runs and 3 walks. The Tigers are 2-4 on their current road trip, and they were swept in their last series to Minnesota back in May. Slowey pitched one of those game, a 6-2 victory. The Tigers have scored 1, 5, 1, 4, 1 runs in their last 5 games, and they are 1-6 on artificial surface, and 3-7 when coming off an off-day.

Minnesota:
The right-handed Slowey is throwing tonight. He is 10-3 on the season, and is 2-1 in his last 3. His ERA over that time is 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.27, however, this is skewed a little from his last start when he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings. The Twins have won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road), and they are coming home, where they are 24-15. Minnesota may be without Morneau, who is nursing a groin and will be a game time decision.

OTHER: BP advantage is overwhelming in MN favor in the last 10

NOTE: Detroit has never played well in Minnesota, therefore, this will probably be a chase for me if Minnesota doesn't win tonight.

PICK: Minnesota (1 unit)
Record: 25-15-1 ....62% (+16 units)

Let's do this...................

[Axis]

Plays tonight:

NYY/TOR U 9.5 WIN
NYM/PHI U 10
STL/CINCY U9.5
MIN -1.5
CWS +140

[TodaysAction]

all good talk and no trash. Great job guys. I'm new to base and testing various ideas, so I don't have much to contribute. But I'll be listening and learning the strategy.

Rixsaw thanks for your contribution and noticing the difference in here and other threads. Maybe you could post a/some of the ideas you're working with - might find out someone else is doing something similar or find it's a waste of time going that route. As always the choice is yours.

[TodaysAction]

Good Afternoon Guys. Axis posted my play yesterday b-cuz I was out on the lynx hitting the little white ball (87 on a real easy course, coulda/shoulda been better)

Looks like we are all doing well as of late, so let's keep it going and making money

Detroit at Minnesota:

Detroit:
Rookie's first start tonight, Lucas French-(fry). Has only pitched 3 innings in relief and has given up no runs and 3 walks. The Tigers are 2-4 on their current road trip, and they were swept in their last series to Minnesota back in May. Slowey pitched one of those game, a 6-2 victory. The Tigers have scored 1, 5, 1, 4, 1 runs in their last 5 games, and they are 1-6 on artificial surface, and 3-7 when coming off an off-day.

Minnesota:
The right-handed Slowey is throwing tonight. He is 10-3 on the season, and is 2-1 in his last 3. His ERA over that time is 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.27, however, this is skewed a little from his last start when he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings. The Twins have won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road), and they are coming home, where they are 24-15. Minnesota may be without Morneau, who is nursing a groin and will be a game time decision.

OTHER: BP advantage is overwhelming in MN favor in the last 10

NOTE: Detroit has never played well in Minnesota, therefore, this will probably be a chase for me if Minnesota doesn't win tonight.

PICK: Minnesota (1 unit)
Record: 25-15-1 ....62% (+16 units)

Let's do this...................

Nice scribing Foghorn. Tough not to root for the home team in this one and I don't think you'll have to chase to long. Might look at the series tag as an option.

[TodaysAction]

Plays tonight:

NYY/TOR U 9.5 WIN
NYM/PHI U 10
STL/CINCY U9.5
MIN -1.5
CWS +140

Congrats with the earlier today.

BOL with the evening action.

[TodaysAction]

/FL,

WA,

More in a little bit.

[TodaysAction]

Thanx TA...

I have the hot for WNBA..

[BamaBill67]

Tampa Bay @ Texas

Texas has not been playing as well lately like I have seen them play earlier, I am looking for them to start there anual 2nd half of the season fall out. Kamir pitched well in his first outing of the DL and has usually beaten the Rangers. TB 8-2 in last 10 and Texas 5-5. Tampa Bay -140 1 unit

Seattle @ Boston

I said some negative things about Wakefield in his last start against Atl and he made me pay, also had to eat my words as he shut down the Braves. Now he faces a team that is on a playoff surge and there stud is on the mound. Seattle +110 1.5 units

Detroit @ Minnesota

Slowery is making his 2nd attempt at 11 wins @ home and against a rookie (foghorn said it 1st). I don't think he will take Detroit lightly as they are in 1st place. This makes way for the Twins batters to step up and jump out on top early. I don't like paying this price, but the price won't matter.
Minnesota -170 1 unit

[TodaysAction]

CLE,
METS/PHI,
SEA/BOS, ,
BOS,
TAM/TX,
MN,
SF,
CHI,
CHI +5',

[TodaysAction]

Tampa Bay @ Texas

Texas has not been playing as well lately like I have seen them play earlier, I am looking for them to start there anual 2nd half of the season fall out. Kamir pitched well in his first outing of the DL and has usually beaten the Rangers. TB 8-2 in last 10 and Texas 5-5. Tampa Bay -140 1 unit

Seattle @ Boston

I said some negative things about Wakefield in his last start against Atl and he made me pay, also had to eat my words as he shut down the Braves. Now he faces a team that is on a playoff surge and there stud is on the mound. Seattle +110 1.5 units

Detroit @ Minnesota

Slowery is making his 2nd attempt at 11 wins @ home and against a rookie (foghorn said it 1st). I don't think he will take Detroit lightly as they are in 1st place. This makes way for the Twins batters to step up and jump out on top early. I don't like paying this price, but the price won't matter.
Minnesota -170 1 unit

for your three for tonight. Many in here are not liking DET's chances this evening.

[Spaceviews]

Just wanted to say THANKS!!!! Your on fire with those stars

[TodaysAction]

Just wanted to say THANKS!!!! Your on fire with those stars

You're welcome Spaceviews but try to remember this if/when they don't cash.

[Spaceviews]

Well noted my friend .....Well notedB.O.L

[TodaysAction]

5-2-0 tonight adding 1.40 and a pair pending.

[TodaysAction]

Something to think about for games that go more than three (inclusive) extra innings would be playing the second half over total if they meet the next day.

Time to go put the on the . Enjoy the rest of the night/morning.