Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[therber2]

A few plays today

Cubs -120 (.5 units)
Phillies -155 (.5 units)
SFO/FLA 8 (.5 unit)
LAA/TX 8.5 (1 unit)
NYY/TOR 9.5 (1 unit)
TOR +127 (.5 units)

[shoebox]

For Monday I will be on.....changing the Padres to the RL

Braves +100 2 units
royals +120 2 units
Texas +140 2 units
Padres +1.5 -130 2 units





GL everyone

[TodaysAction]

For Monday I will be on.....changing the Padres to the RL

Braves +100 2 units
royals +120 2 units
Texas +140 2 units
Padres +1.5 -130 2 units





GL everyone

Thanks for posting `em in here shoebox. We're disagree on one game, wish ain't all bad.

[TodaysAction]

Cubs -120 (.5 units)
Phillies -155 (.5 units)
SFO/FLA 8 (.5 unit)
LAA/TX 8.5 (1 unit)
NYY/TOR 9.5 (1 unit)
TOR +127 (.5 units)

Good luck to you today theber2.

[TodaysAction]

Today: 2-0-0: +2.23 units

Bets YTD: 7-5-0: +3.28 units
"Best bets" YTD: 3-1-0: +3.89 units

When I woke up I was thinking I'd probably lost both since I went to bed in the knowledge that Dodgers blew a 5-run lead in the 9th and that TA was against me on the Texas pick. But in the end, both cashed!

Just for discussion, I think the Orioles and Astros are teams that are starting to heat up a little, whereas I think the Marlins will be going colder along with the Tigers in my opinion. This doesn't yet mean I will bet/fade those teams though.

Congrats on Sunday's perfect day and good luck today.

[TodaysAction]

Today I'm on:

DET: -139, 1 unit
CIN: +128 1 unit

Saving the rest to tail the good bettors here, if they make picks I like.

BOL with the pair.

[TodaysAction]

Five for now and at least a pair more later.

FL/SF,
TX/LAA,
OAK/BOS,
BOS,
DET,


Playing "Follow the leader" with the first couple. We shall see how this turns out.

[hufster]

STL -1.5 +115 W
CHC -1.5 +145 W
ATL -1.5 +125 L
CHW +100 L
LAD -155 W
LAD/SDG Under 7.5 -110 L

Yesterdays action went 3-3 +0.25u

On a side note, thank you Chad Billingsley. He went 2-4 with a HR and a 2B, ran over the catcher on a play at the plate, and pitched 8 innings only gaving up 4 hits. Unfortunately 2 of 4 were HRs and helped, along with the Broxton meltdown, to ruin my under. None the less, thank you Chad.

For today we've got :

CIN 1st 5 Innings +150 risk 2 units

Cuerto has the edge in all the pitching catagories. Better WHIP on the road (1.03 vs. 1.26), over the last 3 games (1.38 vs. 1.80), and for the season (1.12 vs. 1.47). Hamels has been a sinking recently and his teammates have abandoned ship, giving him only 3 runs of support over his last 3 starts. My lone concern for the matchup lies in the bullpen. You're looking at a matchup of best and worst WHIP over last 3 in the division. I'll play it safe and take this one for the 1st 5 innings.

FLA/SFO Under 8.5 +100
Note : not going to place my bet quite yet, possibility of this one heading to 9

Matt Cain has been solid and I can back that up with numerous stats, the one that really matters, is that the Giants are only giving up 2.5 runs/game when Cain takes the mound at home. West has also been very good, especially in his limited road appearances. He also blanked the Giants earlier in the year, going 8 strong, yielding only 2 hits.

ATL/CHC Under 8.5 -120

Two excellent starting pitchers take the mound with two stingy bullpens to back them up (0.85 and 1.14 WHIP over last 7). Both teams are coming in with hot bats, but neither team has faced particularly great pitching in some time.

Good luck today fellas.

Record : 13-9-1 +6.60u

[Spaceviews]

With you on the FL/SF & TX/LAA Picks......Interested to see how these turn out
You were right about the parlay(balt+over10) Some one told me a long time ago that parlays
are sucker bets....... I just can't seem to stay away from them though shoulda, woulda, coulda
are words for the past......I'm just trying to stay ahead. If I've learned from a loss, at least I've gained SOMETHING. B.O.L with your selections today

[TodaysAction]

STL -1.5 +115 W
CHC -1.5 +145 W
ATL -1.5 +125 L
CHW +100 L
LAD -155 W
LAD/SDG Under 7.5 -110 L

Yesterdays action went 3-3 +0.25u

On a side note, thank you Chad Billingsley. He went 2-4 with a HR and a 2B, ran over the catcher on a play at the plate, and pitched 8 innings only gaving up 4 hits. Unfortunately 2 of 4 were HRs and helped, along with the Broxton meltdown, to ruin my under. None the less, thank you Chad.

For today we've got :

CIN 1st 5 Innings +150 risk 2 units

Cuerto has the edge in all the pitching catagories. Better WHIP on the road (1.03 vs. 1.26), over the last 3 games (1.38 vs. 1.80), and for the season (1.12 vs. 1.47). Hamels has been a sinking recently and his teammates have abandoned ship, giving him only 3 runs of support over his last 3 starts. My lone concern for the matchup lies in the bullpen. You're looking at a matchup of best and worst WHIP over last 3 in the division. I'll play it safe and take this one for the 1st 5 innings.

FLA/SFO Under 8.5 +100
Note : not going to place my bet quite yet, possibility of this one heading to 9

Matt Cain has been solid and I can back that up with numerous stats, the one that really matters, is that the Giants are only giving up 2.5 runs/game when Cain takes the mound at home. West has also been very good, especially in his limited road appearances. He also blanked the Giants earlier in the year, going 8 strong, yielding only 2 hits.

ATL/CHC Under 8.5 -120

Two excellent starting pitchers take the mound with two stingy bullpens to back them up (0.85 and 1.14 WHIP over last 7). Both teams are coming in with hot bats, but neither team has faced particularly great pitching in some time.

Good luck today fellas.

Record : 13-9-1 +6.60u

Positive is positive and it all adds up. Keep it going.

[TodaysAction]

With you on the FL/SF & TX/LAA Picks......Interested to see how these turn out
You were right about the parlay(balt+over10) Some one told me a long time ago that parlays
are sucker bets....... I just can't seem to stay away from them though shoulda, woulda, coulda
are words for the past......I'm just trying to stay ahead. If I've learned from a loss, at least I've gained SOMETHING. B.O.L with your selections today

Let's get it done.

Parlays equal

[TodaysAction]

Was going to post these later but got invited to go to the game this evening, so here they are:

DET,
LAA,
ATL/CUBS,

The last is a followed play.

[woodman663]

Ok I'm thinking the Shark is an under and the Dolphin an over (the dolphin jumps and I guess the shark is submerged?). I still have no clue as towards the starfish, it's probably some option my book doesn't have.

Anyway, good luck and good to see you're on DET as well.

[Foghorn]

Ok I'm thinking the Shark is an under and the Dolphin an over (the dolphin jumps and I guess the shark is submerged?). I still have no clue as towards the starfish, it's probably some option my book doesn't have.

Anyway, good luck and good to see you're on DET as well.

Hey Woody, starfish I think is scoring in the first inning........keep up the good work..............

[woodman663]

Today I'm on:

DET: -139, 1 unit
CIN: +128 1 unit

Adding some tailing plays:

SF: -182 1 unit
SEA: -125 1 unit
CHC: -122 1 unit
(those 3 tailing MILEHIGHMONSTERS)

PHI/CIN under 9: -128 1 unit
DET/KC under 9: -111 1 unit
(those 2 tailing Jerseyshop)

[therber2]

Too bad you don't get a bonus for the prop on the Phillies game. 10 runs first inning. HOLY COW!! Oh yeah Cubs win. Cubs win. Time for a tall cool Budweiser.
I was soooo close to playing Cinci; Phillie had a slight edge for me so I played em small. Anyone know what the record with MLB dog wins vs fav wins is?

[hufster]

Anyone know what the record with MLB dog wins vs fav wins is?

If you meant all favorites vs. all dogs for the 2009 season, here is the SU and RL stats :


SU: 655-511 avg line: -141/+129 on/against: -$4,990/-$765 ROI: -3.0%/-0.7%

RL: 478-681 avg line: +140/-151 on/against: -$2,070/-$2,990 ROI: -1.8%/-1.7%

[EXhoosier10]

hufster, do you have any stats for games with a favorite < -130?

[hufster]

Umm... I'm not sure if you mean to say favorites with odds between -110 or -130 or if you larger favorites than -130 (i.e. COL -210 tonight).

[therber2]

No I mean favorites and dogs + or - EV I'd be curious to know how this ratio has moved around over the years.

[EXhoosier10]

That would be -110 to -130. My bad

[therber2]

Here is a big round to the HUFSTER

[hufster]

EXhoosier -

Here ya go...

SU: 299-272 avg line: -119/+109 on/against: -$2,450/-$270 ROI: -3.6%/-0.5%

RL: 221-349 avg line: +154/-166 on/against: -$1,255/-$1,220 ROI: -2.1%/-1.3%


Money is based off of risking $100 regardless of dogs or favs. No dogs in this example

[TodaysAction]

Good time at the park. Too bad the home team didn't get it done.

With a pair pending, here's the night's scorecard: 1-5-0 dropping 9.75 units.

[TodaysAction]

For Tuesday, here's the start of them:

FL/SF,
TX/LAA,
BOS,
DET,

I will not let the pair () deter myself for getting a unit's profit.
Tiger's was split up between accounts but listing it here as one (total).

[hufster]

No I mean favorites and dogs + or - EV I'd be curious to know how this ratio has moved around over the years.

Lets just say that you will consistently lose tons of money (100+ units) straight betting all favorites and you will consistently lose decent money (15+ units) straight betting all dogs. They vary, but essentially you get the idea. These numbers are using Vegas 10 cent lines. So you could do better or worse depending on what kind of lines you are playing.

Here is a big round to the HUFSTER

[woodman663]

DET: -139, 1 unit LOSS
CIN: +128 1 unit LOSS

Adding some tailing plays:

SF: -182 1 unit WIN
SEA: -125 1 unit WIN
CHC: -122 1 unit WIN
(those 3 tailing MILEHIGHMONSTERS)

PHI/CIN under 9: -128 1 unit LOSS
DET/KC under 9: -111 1 unit WIN
(those 2 tailing Jerseyshop)

Own bets went 0-2-0, Cincinnati one wasn't even close.

Overall today I went 4-3-0, up just +0.10 units.

Bets YTD: 7-7-0: +1.28 units (tailed bets not included but "best bets" are)
"Best bets" YTD: 3-1-0: +3.89 units
Tailed bets YTD: 3-1-0: +2.10 units

[therber2]

Lets just say that you will consistently lose tons of money (100+ units) straight betting all favorites and you will consistently lose decent money (15+ units) straight betting all dogs. They vary, but essentially you get the idea. These numbers are using Vegas 10 cent lines. So you could do better or worse depending on what kind of lines you are playing.

Bump that round one more time
But back to business. The purpose of the question was not to know if I would have been successful in blind betting favs or dogs this season or any season. I am just thinking: how accurate is the "dog" line and the "fav" meaning: how much does -130 or -170 indicate edge now compared to a decade ago. You could find this out by simply back tracking year by year ratios of dog victories to fav victories. It would be interesting to see what this ratio is and where it has been. I heard someone say the line is where it is for a good reason (meaning nothing to do with public).

[therber2]

Cubs -120 (.5 units)
Phillies -155 (.5 units)
SFO/FLA 8 -120 (.5 unit)
LAA/TX 8.5 +105 (1 unit)
NYY/TOR 9.5 EV (1 unit)
TOR +127 (.5 units)

Record: 59-48-1 55.1% (+16.48 units)

[therber2]

For Tuesday, here's the start of them:

FL/SF,
TX/LAA,
BOS,
DET,

I will not let the pair () deter myself for getting a unit's profit.
Tiger's was split up between accounts but listing it here as one (total).

What did you get DET at? GL


Here is a good example Huf. I am seeing DET at -240. Run -200+ line plays from 1999-2009 and see if the teams' win rates move in any sort of pattern year by year. Question is do you think the win rate would be roughly constant year by year, would there be a notible move from say 75% more towards 50%, or would it be up and down? The question is not does -200 or -300 really mean anything, it is does it mean anything more or less than it did last year or the year before.

[therber2]

Minnesota Twins +1.5 -150 (1 unit)
Minn +130 (.5 units)
LAA -170 (.5 units)
Mets +1.5 -135 (1 unit)
Mets +117 (.5 units)
NYM/LOS 8.5 -105 (1 unit)
KC Royals +190 (.5 units)
KC/DET 8.5 -115 (1 unit)
BAL +130 (.5 units)
Oak +215 (1 unit)
OAK/BOS 9 -110 (1 unit)
Brewers -143 (1 unit)
FLA/SFO 8 -115 (.5 units)
Cubs -110 (1 unit)
Phillies -137 (.5 unit)

Lotto Parlay:
+798 KC + OAK (.25 units)

[woodman663]

I really like the KC/DET and NYM/LAD unders, as well as the COL/WAS under. Not sure about the FLA/SFO one, Florida hits lefties like crazy, Johnson wasn't good last outing and I don't trust the Marlins bullpen much. Was actually going to bet the over, if anything.

[shoebox]

Tuesday .........

braves -105 3 units
reds +135 3 units
det RL -105 5 units

[Foghorn]

Hello Gentlemen: took a few days off to recoup........looks like you all have been doing well. Keep up the good work............

Cleveland at Chicago:

Cleveland:
Although they have won 2 of their last 3, I'm not convinced they will stay with Chicago tonight. They are only batting .182 vs left-handers in their last 10 and their BP is about 1.5 ER per game higher than Chicago. The Indians WHIP is .30 higher too. Sowers is 1-2 in his last 3 games and a 6.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.73.

Chicago:
Throwing the lefty Buehrle tonight. In his last 3, he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00 Although the Sox have lost 2 of their last 3 (on the road), they are 4-2 in their last 6 home games. They are batting .369 vs left handers in their last 10, and they took 3 of 4 last week in Cleveland.

PICK: Chicago 2 units (-150)
Record: 25-17-1 (+14 units)

[hufster]

CIN 1st 5 Innings +150 risk 2 units L
FLA/SFO Under 8.5 +100 L
ATL/CHC Under 8.5 -120 W

Yesterday went 1-2, losing 2.16u. On to today's action :

ARI -150 win 1 unit

Doug Davis vs. the Padres = $$$. He is 6-1 over the last 4 seasons with a 1.16 WHIP.

BOS -1.5 -120 risk 2 units

Boston's playing at home, coming off a shut out, getting beat by 6 runs. Since 2004 the Red Sox are 8-1 at home coming off a 6 run loss, they are 11-4 coming off a shutout. They are obviously a team that rebounds well. Throw in the fact that we've got one of the more lopsided pitching match-ups you're going to see. I'll take the RL on this one.

That's all for now.

Record : 14-11-1 +4.46u