MLB Tracking: 3 Separate Systems

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/13

S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S2: 1-1 for +0.03 units

S3: 1-0 for +1.01 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-3 for +4.88 units

S2: 32-28 for +9.05 units

S3: 8-4 for +4.63 units

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/14

S1
None

S2
Mariners +109
Royals +118
Phillies +114
Giants +128

S3
None

[oZgoodZ33]

Just a heads up: tomorrow I most likely will not be able to post until the early afternoon. I will include any plays that have already started if they so happen to meet any of the 3 systems. They will be counted towards the record.

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/14

S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S2: 1-3 for -1.86 units

S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-3 for +4.8 units

S2: 33-31 for +7.19 units

S3: 8-4 for +4.63 units

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/15

S1
None

S2
Brewers +115
Rockies +118
Nationals +130
White Sox +119
Mariners +109
Royals +103
Padres +150

S3
Red Sox +115

[dogman]

Just want to bring this up. System 3 has Detroit for a play tonight. It is a DOG(+106), has a Top 20(9) pitcher on the mound(Verlander) and is over 48% wins on the road(9w-9l-50%). AVA, brought up a interesting point in, if their opp. also has a top 20 hurler(Darvish-3) on the mound, then maybe it would not be a play.

I will still play Detroit and my reasoning is because their the dog in this contest but it is something to keep an eye on this year to see if AVA's add on rule is something to keep watching this year and if it makes a difference in the overall record.

I would be curious if any of this years system 3 plays would not have been a play because it's opponant had a top 20 on the mound also.

[oZgoodZ33]

I believe that some

[oZgoodZ33]

I believe that some of the previous S3 plays wouldn't have been plays if the added on rule that AVA mentioned was applied. BUT there's usually a reason for a top 20 pitcher to be a dog and that reason is usually because he's facing another top 20 pitcher. Not many top 20 pitchers are going to be dogs without facing another top 20 pitcher unless its a shitty team like the cubs, Astros, marlins going up against a good team. But even that wouldn't apply to the system cuz those bad teams don't have records above 48%

[dogman]

I believe there may be merit in what AVA says but I like to keep it short and sweet when it comes to certain angles. Sometime the more rules you add then its something all together different. Lots of times when a top 20 is an underdog is because their on the road and may be facing a decent team but their pitcher may not be in the top 20. Last nights play on Boston was a perfect example. Tampa is a good team but thier pitcher wasn't in the top 20 and Boston's was. But the fact there were on the road made them a short dog.

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/15

S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S2: 4-3 for +1.81 units

S3: 1-0 for +1.15 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-3 for +4.88 units

S2: 37-34 for +10.86 units

S3: 9-4 for +5.78 units

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/16

S1
Tigers/Rangers under 7.5 -105

S2
Brewers +137
Red Sox +127
White Sox +124

S3
Tigers +100

[Avala7ch3]

Blindly following the rules is not a great idea. The systems are very simple and they need a lot of improvement. Tigers are not suitable for S3 IMO. Yes, Verlander (ranked 9) is one of the best pitchers, but Rangers are .733 at home, with two wins streaks, 7 wins in last ten games and Darvish is ranked 3rd and is 4-0 over his last five starts. Of course Tigers could still win but the game is very close and it's not worth to play it. Red Sox is in the same situation IMO. In other hand I like Brewers, White Sox and Under games.

[alamo]

Year to date results look vg to this point. Keep it going dude.

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/16

S1: 0-1 for -1.05 units

S2: 2-1 for +1.51 units

S3: 0-1 for -1.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-4 for +3.83 units

S2: 39-35 for +12.37 units

S3: 9-5 for +4.78 units

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/17

S1
Giants/Rockies under 9.5 -105

S2
Dodgers +122
Mariners +145
Rays +103
White Sox +105

S3
Rockies +104

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/17

S1: 0-1 for -1.05 units

S2: 2-2 for +0.08 units

S3: 1-0 for +1.04 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-5 for +2.78 units

S2: 41-37 for +12.45 units

S3: 10-5 for +5.82 units

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/18

S1
None

S2
Blue Jays +107
Royals +119
White Sox +118

S3
Royals +119

[oZgoodZ33]

College graduation today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:d

i will not be able to post until mid-late afternoon tomorrow.

[alamo]

Enjoy buddy. Talk tmoro.

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/18

S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S2: 0-3 for -3.00 units

S3: 0-1 for -1.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-5 for +2.78 units

S2: 41-40 for +9.45 units

S3: 10-6 for +4.82 units

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/19

S1
Mariners/Indians under 7.5 -110
Tigers/Rangers under 9.5 -115

S2
Phillies +137
Brewers +107
Nationals +124
Giants +125
White Sox +112

S3
Indians +100

[UTB]

S2
Phillies +137

Homer Bailey was in the top 20 coming into this game wasn't he?

[dogman]

OZ, not sure if Philly(system 2) would of been a play as Cincy's Bailey was listed at no. 18.

[alamo]

Let's get em

[dogman]

Just wanted to say, of all 3 systems listed, I am the biggest fan of system 3. You have a dog with a very good pitcher and a team that has proven it can win on the road(if playing away) or a team that plays well at home if playing there.

Looking at system 1- I would be curious what the closing lines were in those games. For example tonight there was a line of 7 1/2 and one with a 9 1/2 total. Linesmakers and the betting market are telling in one game they expect a low scoring affair but in the other a higher scoring game.

Does anyone have the closing totals on the wins and losses for system 1. I would actually feel better with the under on the 7 1/2 than the 9 1/2 total. It would be interesting if the losses were coming from the higher totaled lines. When there are two top hurlers facing each other you would expect a total of under 9 but if they post a total of 9 1/2 or the game gets bet up there then both teams have some good hitting also which means a higher total.

[Avala7ch3]

OZ, not sure if Philly(system 2) would of been a play as Cincy's Bailey was listed at no. 18.

That's correct - Bailey is #18, Philly is not qualified for S2, Indians was favorite for whole day and got dogs just before closing and you posted it long time after the game has finished! It doesn't make sense if you do not keep correct record of the threat...

[oZgoodZ33]

My fault on Bailey and the Phillies.

As for Avalanche, I posted YESTERDAY that I was graduating and would not be able to post until later so I used the closing lines on vegasinsider (in regards of the Indians game). As I stated in the FIRST post of this thread, this is a TRACKING thread. Therefore, I am still going to TRACK the plays regardless of if they started or not. ALSO, I posted the systems so everyone can keep tabs and point out mistakes OR find out the plays for themselves.

[oZgoodZ33]

RESULTS FOR 5/18

S1: 1-1 for -0.15 units

S2: 0-4 for -4.00 units

S3: 1-0 for +1.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 9-6 for +2.63 units

S2: 41-44 for +5.45 units

S3: 11-6 for +5.82 units

[oZgoodZ33]

Above post should say RESULTS FOR 5/19 (not 5/18).

Can't edit for some reason...

[alamo]

Good work oz. enjoying the thread. I'm playing the plays lite and appreciate your work to date in here.

[oZgoodZ33]

Thx Alamo, appreciate that. Not my plays/systems obviously so don't have that emotional attachment to them but want those like yourself who are following to do well. Good idea to play light also as these haven't been back tested.

[dogman]

Oz, you're doing a great job. I went back and checked the totals for system 1 and their wins and losses. In a very short sample of 15 games, for lines of 7-7 1/2 there is 6W and only 1L, on a total of 8 there is a 2-0 record.Now for 6 and 6 1/2 the record thus far is 1-3 and for games of 9 1/2 is 0-2.

I am not playing system 1 but if I were I would not play any totals of 9 or more. The 6 or 6 1/2 is a tough one. Because 7 is worth the most and a strong key number that may be why it has lost but I would probably still play them.

System 3, my favorite, may have a play on Arizona if it goes to a dog.

[oZgoodZ33]

Thx a lot for the kind words dogman! Great stats on system 1. If you could continue to track that over the course of the season that could be a key factor/filter.

[oZgoodZ33]

PLAYS FOR 5/20

S1
None

S2
Mets +142
Nationals +124
Athletics +112
Rays + (someone update once line comes out/I assume they will be dogs/if so they fit the system)

S3
None

*girlfriend's bday today so will be out alllllllll day, may be able to check back later tonight but not sure yet. I'd appreciate any help for the Rays line or anything else, thx*

[Avala7ch3]

Rays has opened +140, now is +145

GL and enjoy !