MLB Tracking: 3 Separate Systems

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  • oZgoodZ33
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-28-12
    • 525

    #1
    MLB Tracking: 3 Separate Systems
    These systems are not mine. I came across them when searching around forums and websites. I do not know any previous records for these systems. I will use this thread to track all 3 systems. They will be named: "System 1" or "S1", "System 2" or "S2" and "System 3" or "S3" (creative, I know ).

    Each system will be tracked separately within this thread so there could be duplicate plays. This will not matter as each system is its own separate entity. All 3 systems will start play on May 1 (tomorrow) as I felt it was best to accumulate a month of data for starting pitchers to ensure as much accuracy as possible.

    The parameters for each system are as follows:

    System #1 Description
    1) If both starting pitchers are in the Top 20 in the AL or NL according to the Sagarin ratings then play the “under”

    System #2 Description

    1) Eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150

    2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row

    3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL according to the Sagarin ratings

    System #3 Description

    1) The starting pitcher for the underdog must be ranked in the Top 20 in the AL or NL according to the Sagarin ratings.

    2) If the underdog is playing on the road, determine if their road record is above 48%. If the underdog is playing at home, determine if their home record is above 48%.

  • oZgoodZ33
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-28-12
    • 525

    #2
    *Note: All lines will come from 5dimes. If I ever post plays overnight I will use the reduced juice moneylines option available at 5dimes. Totals will always use the reduced juice lines. All other plays (those not posted overnight) will use the current lines at 5dimes at the time of the post.
    Comment
    • oZgoodZ33
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-28-12
      • 525

      #3
      PLAYS FOR 5/1

      S1
      Nationals under 7 -105
      Reds under 7.5 -115

      S2
      Marlins +117
      Cubs +103
      D-Backs +100
      Rockies +138
      Royals +111

      S3
      None
      Comment
      • oZgoodZ33
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-28-12
        • 525

        #4
        5/1 RESULTS

        S1: 2-0 for +2.00 units

        S2: 3-2 for +1.52 units

        S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units

        YTD RESULTS

        S1: 2-0 for +2.00 units

        S2: 3-2 for +1.52 units

        S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units
        Comment
        • oZgoodZ33
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-28-12
          • 525

          #5
          PLAYS FOR 5/2

          S1
          None

          S2
          White Sox +118
          Orioles +106

          S3
          None
          Comment
          • AceofSP2107
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 07-28-09
            • 717

            #6
            W sox are have a little more value Oz
            Comment
            • Brebos
              SBR MVP
              • 02-24-13
              • 1209

              #7
              nvm gl!
              Comment
              • oZgoodZ33
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 02-28-12
                • 525

                #8
                I post the line I see at 5dimes at the time of my post, not necessarily the best line of the day. Want to make the results as fair and accurate as possible. Not always gonna get the best line so I'm not gonna inflate numbers by posting the best line. Hope that makes sense.
                Comment
                • oZgoodZ33
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 02-28-12
                  • 525

                  #9
                  5/2 RESULTS

                  S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

                  S2: 2-0 for +2.24 units

                  S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units

                  YTD RESULTS

                  S1: 2-0 for +2.00 units

                  S2: 5-2 for +3.76 units

                  S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units
                  Comment
                  • oZgoodZ33
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-28-12
                    • 525

                    #10
                    PLAYS FOR 5/3

                    S1
                    Cardinals under 8 +100

                    S2
                    Padres +103
                    Athletics +133
                    Red Sox +115
                    White Sox +135
                    Orioles +120
                    Rockies +109

                    S3
                    Cardinals +107
                    Comment
                    • Dakota
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-06-05
                      • 237

                      #11
                      appreciate the systems and the plays...do u have records for each of the systems and how theyve performed in the past?Thanks
                      Comment
                      • Semper Fidelis
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-22-11
                        • 1999

                        #12
                        I don't know about System 1 and 3, but System 2 has already been tested by some on this forum, and it wasn't profitable. I personally tracked it for half the season last year, and it wasn't profitable-can't say for whole season as I stopped halfway through, but others said they've done for the whole season and it wasn't good. I just remember it was horrible during interleague play. You can keep track though as I have yet to see for myself the entire season results! Thanks for tracking, it'll be interesting to see how they all fare throughout the rest of the season.
                        Comment
                        • Dakota
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-06-05
                          • 237

                          #13
                          thans for the update!!
                          Comment
                          • oZgoodZ33
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-28-12
                            • 525

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Dakota
                            appreciate the systems and the plays...do u have records for each of the systems and how theyve performed in the past?Thanks
                            Unfortunately, I don't have any past records as I just stumbled upon these systems while google searching back before the start of the season. Also, thx for the info SemperFi
                            Comment
                            • oZgoodZ33
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-28-12
                              • 525

                              #15
                              5/3 RESULTS

                              S1: 1-0 for +1.00 units

                              S2: 2-3 for -0.64 units (CWS postponed)

                              S3: 1-0 for +1.07 units

                              YTD RESULTS

                              S1: 3-0 for +3.00 units

                              S2: 7-5 for +3.12 units

                              S3: 1-0 for +1.07 units
                              Comment
                              • oZgoodZ33
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 02-28-12
                                • 525

                                #16
                                PLAYS FOR 5/4

                                S1
                                None

                                S2
                                Cubs +115
                                Mets +112
                                Athletics +101
                                Mariners +114
                                Orioles +135
                                White Sox +140
                                Red Sox +130
                                Rockies +119

                                S3
                                Athletics +101
                                Comment
                                • Dakota
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-06-05
                                  • 237

                                  #17
                                  thank u !!!
                                  Comment
                                  • AceofSP2107
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 07-28-09
                                    • 717

                                    #18
                                    GL today
                                    Comment
                                    • oZgoodZ33
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 02-28-12
                                      • 525

                                      #19
                                      5/4 RESULTS

                                      S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

                                      S2: 3-4 for -0.32 units

                                      S3: 0-1 for -1.00 units

                                      YTD RESULTS

                                      S1: 3-0 for +3.00 units

                                      S2: 10-9 for +2.80 units

                                      S3: 1-1 for +0.07 units
                                      Comment
                                      • oZgoodZ33
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-28-12
                                        • 525

                                        #20
                                        PLAYS FOR 5/5

                                        S1
                                        Red Sox/Rangers under 8 -120

                                        S2
                                        Mets +145
                                        Nationals +102
                                        Cardinals +101
                                        Padres +106
                                        Athletics +114
                                        Mariners +139
                                        Orioles +110
                                        Rays +103

                                        S3
                                        Red Sox +140
                                        Comment
                                        • Avala7ch3
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 06-04-12
                                          • 257

                                          #21
                                          "
                                          Comment
                                          • oZgoodZ33
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 02-28-12
                                            • 525

                                            #22
                                            Yep, thx avalanche. That's where I found the system. Just wanted to track these 3 to see what happens.
                                            Comment
                                            • oZgoodZ33
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 02-28-12
                                              • 525

                                              #23
                                              5/5 RESULTS

                                              S1: 1-0 for +1.00 units

                                              S2: 6-2 for +4.36 units

                                              S3: 0-1 for -1.00 units

                                              YTD RESULTS

                                              S1: 4-0 for +4.00 units

                                              S2: 16-11 for +7.16 units

                                              S3: 1-2 for -0.93 units
                                              Comment
                                              • oZgoodZ33
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 02-28-12
                                                • 525

                                                #24
                                                PLAYS FOR 5/6

                                                S1
                                                Phillies/Giants under 6 -105

                                                S2
                                                Athletics +107
                                                Blue Jays +133

                                                S3
                                                Braves +102
                                                Comment
                                                • DHB
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-14-11
                                                  • 1538

                                                  #25
                                                  interesting.. keeping an eye out for S1.
                                                  thanks 4 posting.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • oZgoodZ33
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 02-28-12
                                                    • 525

                                                    #26
                                                    Question for you guys. Obviously there will be some days that I won't be able to post plays until mid or late afternoon. By that time many of the short dogs could change to short faves due to line movement throughout the day and vice versa. This would eliminate or add some teams that would've not necessarily fit the systems earlier in the day or when the lines opened.

                                                    Do you think I should use the opening lines? Current lines at the time of post like I am doing now? Other ideas?

                                                    Thanks guys!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dogman
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-28-05
                                                      • 513

                                                      #27
                                                      I would say pick one book (maybe Heritage) and use their opener to track the games. Then if someone wants also to keep a record on the closing line also from that same book to see any differences. Using the line from midday won't tell you as much as using the opener or closer.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • oZgoodZ33
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-28-12
                                                        • 525

                                                        #28
                                                        Thx for the input dogman. I tend to agree with your sentiment. I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing for now. I want to get some more info/opinions from ppl before making a decision.
                                                        Thanks!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • oZgoodZ33
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 02-28-12
                                                          • 525

                                                          #29
                                                          5/6 RESULTS

                                                          S1: 0-1 for -1.05 units

                                                          S2: 1-1 for +0.33 units

                                                          S3: 1-0 for +1.02 units

                                                          YTD RESULTS

                                                          S1: 4-1 for +2.95 units

                                                          S2: 17-12 for +7.49 units

                                                          S3: 2-2 for +0.09 units
                                                          Comment
                                                          • oZgoodZ33
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 02-28-12
                                                            • 525

                                                            #30
                                                            PLAYS FOR 5/7

                                                            S1
                                                            Nationals/Tigers under 7 -105
                                                            Cardinals/Cubs under 7.5 -120

                                                            S2
                                                            Braves +105
                                                            Diamondbacks +107
                                                            Phillies +124
                                                            Athletics +100
                                                            Royals +106
                                                            Blue Jays +121
                                                            Mariners +118
                                                            Yankees +106

                                                            S3
                                                            Yankees +106
                                                            Royals +106
                                                            Nationals +101
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dogman
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-28-05
                                                              • 513

                                                              #31
                                                              Doesn't happen often but Detroit was the play with the opener but now Washington is the play. Tough to grade.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • oZgoodZ33
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 02-28-12
                                                                • 525

                                                                #32
                                                                Yep exactly dogman. That's why I'm not sure
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jaspegs
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 05-04-13
                                                                  • 12

                                                                  #33
                                                                  GL man!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • oZgoodZ33
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 02-28-12
                                                                    • 525

                                                                    #34
                                                                    If I took the opening lines then I'd be taking different teams on some occasions such as the nats/tigers game today but it's also not a realistic way to approach this either. I can't look up the games overnight when the lines come out cuz I need to wait for the safaris ratings to be updated in the morning. By that time the line movement could flip flop teams from fitting the system to not fitting the system and vice versa. So I pretty much have to do the system research based off the lines available in the morning hours or whenever I can get to them. To be consistent, I'm trying to make sure that the plays are posted before noon everyday. Some days this won't be the case due to my schedule but for the most part the plays should be posted before noon.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Avala7ch3
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 06-04-12
                                                                      • 257

                                                                      #35
                                                                      "
                                                                      Comment
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