MLB Tracking: 3 Separate Systems

oZgoodZ33 · 05-07-13, 06:43 PM

Thx avalanche. I definitely utilize that site a ton.

I think I'm just going to stick to what I've been doing. I feel like it poses the most realistic way to track these plays. If I were to use the opening lines some games would automatically be scratched such as the Yanks/Rockies game today. This game opened at -110/-110 at most places but was bet to Rockies -125/Yanks +115. If I were to take the opening line I would have missed out on the Yanks play. Same goes for the Tigers/Nats game.

Basically, I have to allow for the lines to move and ultimately settle on a number somewhat from overnight til the morning because I can't conduct my research on which plays fit the systems until the Sagarin Ratings are updated in the mornings.

Hope this makes sense. And sorry for all the confusion.

oZgoodZ33 · 05-08-13, 08:30 AM

5/7 RESULTS

S1: 1-0 for +1.00 units (Nats/Tigers postponed)

S2: 3-4 for -0.48 units (Pirates listed SP McDonald did not start so no play on Mariners)

S3: 0-2 for -2.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 5-1 for +3.95 units

S2: 20-16 for +7.01 units

S3: 2-4 for -1.91 units

oZgoodZ33 · 05-08-13, 09:36 AM

PLAYS FOR 5/8

S1
Mariners/Pirates under 6.5 -120
Tigers/Nationals under 7 -120

S2
Braves +107
Cubs +105
Phillies +147
Mets +100
Athletics +104
Astros +127
Rangers +106
Yankees +122

S3
Braves +107
Rangers +106

oZgoodZ33 · 05-08-13, 12:49 PM

PLAYS FOR 5/8 (ADDING)

S3
Nationals +108

oZgoodZ33 · 05-09-13, 08:56 AM

5/8 RESULTS

S1: 2-0 for +2.00 units

S2: 4-4 for +0.62 units

S3: 3-0 for +3.21 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 7-1 for +5.95 units

S2: 24-20 for +7.63 units

S3: 5-4 for +1.30 units

oZgoodZ33 · 05-09-13, 09:23 AM

PLAYS FOR 5/9

S1
None

S2
Pirates +102
Braves +106
Rockies +109
Twins +139
Blue Jays +138
Astros +138

S3
None

oZgoodZ33 · 05-10-13, 07:30 AM

5/9 RESULTS

S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S2: 2-4 for -1.55 units

S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 7-1 for +5.95 units

S2: 26-24 for +6.08 units

S3: 5-4 for +1.30 units

oZgoodZ33 · 05-10-13, 07:31 AM

Just a heads up guys, the plays for today won't be posted until around 4pm EST today.

DHB · 05-10-13, 05:02 PM

hey man, do u mind going into detail on how to find these games.
maybe i can help with posting when u cant.

oZgoodZ33 · 05-10-13, 05:16 PM

PLAYS FOR 5/10

S1
None

S2
Brewers +131
Braves +114
Twins +105
Yankees +102
Angels +115

S3
None

oZgoodZ33 · 05-10-13, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by DHB

hey man, do u mind going into detail on how to find these games.
maybe i can help with posting when u cant.

DHB, I'd really appreciate that for tomorrow actually as I might not be able to post at all due to my schedule.

In my first post of the thread I listed out the steps to follow for each system.

For S1 you use the Sagarin Pitcher Ratings for each league, the top 20 in each.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp13.htm - AL Rankings updated every morning
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nlp13.htm - NL Rankings updated every morning

For S2 I use ESPN MLB page and click on the teams schedules to find their winning or losing streaks and the Sagarin Ratings again.

For S3 you just use the Sagarin Ratings and the ESPN MLB Page to find the team's home and away record.

I will try my best to post tomorrow. If so, they will be posted in the early morning hours around 7am EST.

oZgoodZ33 · 05-11-13, 06:19 AM

5/10 RESULTS

S1: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S2: 2-3 for -0.83 units

S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 7-1 for +5.95 units

S2: 28-27 for +5.20 units

S3: 5-4 for +1.30 units

oZgoodZ33 · 05-11-13, 06:36 AM

PLAYS FOR 5/11

S1
Marlins/Dodgers under 6.5 -107
Braves/Giants under 6.5 +110

S2
None

S3
None

DHB · 05-12-13, 05:55 AM

hey man, was just looking back at todays S1 games.
both starting pitchers for the marlins and braves are outside of the top 20 in the NL.

maholm 21
slowey 24

am i missing something??

a4u2fear · 05-12-13, 06:50 AM

Both games for S1 don't appear to have met the requirements? Today looks like NYY/KC under

oZgoodZ33 · 05-12-13, 09:21 AM

Sorry about that guys. Must've misread and obviously made a mistake. Looks like yesterday was a total wash then. No plays at all. Will post todays plays before noon.

gafl · 05-12-13, 09:44 AM

DHB, Sagarin updates every morning. You're looking at today's rating, not yesterday's.

oZgoodZ33 · 05-12-13, 10:28 AM

PLAYS FOR 5/12

S1
Yankees/Royals under 7.5 -125

S2
Cubs +149
Phillies +113
Indians +120

S3
Yankees +112
Indians +120

oZgoodZ33 · 05-12-13, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by gafl

DHB, Sagarin updates every morning. You're looking at today's rating, not yesterday's.

Good point gafl, didn't notice the times of their posts. So yesterdays games counted towards the record. Both losers

oZgoodZ33 · 05-12-13, 10:33 AM

5/11 RESULTS

S1: 0-2 for -2.07 units

S2: 0-0 for 0.00 units

S3: 0-0 for 0.00 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 7-3 for +3.88 units

S2: 28-27 for +5.20 units

S3: 5-4 for +1.30 units

DHB · 05-12-13, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by gafl

DHB, Sagarin updates every morning. You're looking at today's rating, not yesterday's.

todays ratings?
it says for games on sat may 11th.

DHB · 05-12-13, 12:14 PM

pitchers for today for the royals/NYY are sanatana/kuroda

saragin has them both in the top 20 but for sat may 11th??
shouldnt we been looking at sun 12th?

DHB · 05-12-13, 12:17 PM

maholm and slowey for yesterdays games
the dates are correct 11th may.

oZgoodZ33 · 05-12-13, 02:48 PM

It says "updated THROUGH Saturday May 11"

gafl · 05-12-13, 02:53 PM

Today's ratings say "thru games of May 11 Saturday". For Maholm and slowey it would have included all games thru May 10, as the games took place on May 11.

gafl · 05-12-13, 02:54 PM

Both typing at the same time.

DHB · 05-12-13, 04:15 PM

ah gotcha, my bad.

S1 WINNER!

DHB · 05-13-13, 08:25 AM

i can only contribute to posting S1 as 2 & 3 are too time consuming.

MAY 12 RESULTS
S1: Royals/Yankees = WINNER! +1 unit

YTD RESULTS
S1: 8-3 +4.88 units

--------------------------------

MAY 13
S1: NO PLAY

oZgoodZ33 · 05-13-13, 10:19 AM

RESULTS FOR 5/12

S1: 1-0 for +1.00 units

S2: 3-0 for +3.82 units

S3: 2-0 for +2.32 units

YTD RESULTS

S1: 8-3 for +4.88 units

S2: 31-27 for +9.02 units

S3: 7-4 for +3.62 units

oZgoodZ33 · 05-13-13, 10:56 AM

PLAYS FOR 5/13

S1
None

S2
Twins +103
Rangers +113
Yankees game 2 +107 (only a play if Yankees win game 1/streak conflict)

S3
Braves +101

Avala7ch3 · 05-13-13, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by DHB

i can only contribute to posting S1 as 2 & 3 are too time consuming.

They are not time consuming, not at all. Actually they are very simple systems and because of that they won't work in long term. My preparation take me 2.5-3 hours every single day during the season - this is time consuming.

I've done some researches and have to confess that 70kgman was right - this system (S2) is Frank Belanger's one. S3 sounds good but I would add one more rule:

- The starting pitcher for the opponent must be ranked outside the Top 20 in the AL or NL according to the Sagarin ratings.

S3 will work well only if the odds are greater than +100. Some people think that the S2 is not profitable....Maybe they are right, but....I want to see you prove them wrong. Good Luck!

DHB · 05-13-13, 03:37 PM

^^
2-3 hrs each day? fuk thats crazy
how many plays?
and how much profit does ur system make u per season?

dogman · 05-13-13, 04:40 PM

AVA,

On system 3 you mention an extra rule that the opposing teams pitcher must be ranked outside the Top 20. Just curious ,have you kept any records if that extra rule would make the systems record better overall. I like your thinking, but I'm not sure if that would be correct without any records to back it up.

I like system 3 because you have a dog who's pitcher is in the top 20 and also the team has proven itself it can win on the road.

I like to look the day before for any possible plays and it looks like tomorrow(May 14th) will not have any qualifiers. Seattle has Hernandez but it's road record doesn't meet up.The White Sox have Peavy, ranked 20 as of today, but road record is doesn't meet standards. For anyone doing this the day before make sure if the team is playing that night to check it's road or home record depending if it wins of loses(it may be at 45% that night but if wins it could qualify the next day with its win), also as in the case of Peavy I would not play overnight fearing he may be listed at 21 or worse the next day.

dogman · 05-13-13, 04:44 PM

Just wanted to say also always check game day because the odds change and a team that wasn't a play the night before can become one and a pitcher that was ranked at 23 may be ranked 20 or higher the next day.

Avala7ch3 · 05-13-13, 07:06 PM

dogman,

I have no records of that, just makes sense for me. As you can see this system is not only about road dog but home dog as well. So what is gonna happen if you have dog who's pitcher is in the top 20 (18th for instance) and the favorite's pitcher is ranked 5th with record of 65% ? Are you really willing to lay money on such a game?
I've come across those systems before and think they are quite simple to be used without improvement. Actually I am pretty curious to see what is gonna happen.

DHB,

The worst thing about baseball betting is that you cannot do any job in advance, So you have to do the same business, day after day during the season. After all I could come with 3-6 plays a day, sometimes less and my system doesn't make as much money as I wish, but I am not complaining.