Mlb 2013

2daBank · 05-20-13, 09:41 AM

I didn't really look at that gm but ill check out when I get a chance.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I didn't really look at that gm but ill check out when I get a chance.

Zack Duke vs Vogelsong. this might be one to consider an alt number (like over 9 +150). of course, if we get Iassogna or Bellino behind the plate, forget it.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 10:58 AM

adding

1* Mariners/Tribe under 8 (-110)

Monday 5.20.2013 updated card
1* Mariners/Tribe under 8 (-110)
1* Mariners/Tribe FF under 4 (+100)

BOL to all today.

Vasco · 05-20-13, 11:23 AM

Biff, you made some good points in another thread regarding umpires in playing totals. What are the best sites to track umpire tendencies and umpire assignments?

italianbandit · 05-20-13, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Zack Duke vs Vogelsong. this might be one to consider an alt number (like over 9 +150). of course, if we get Iassogna or Bellino behind the plate, forget it.

Weather will be on the warmer side at ATT, with no fog in forecast as well.

EXhoosier10 · 05-20-13, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Weather will be on the warmer side at ATT, with no fog in forecast as well.

How's that affect the game? I don't think i've seen many night games played out there to really know much.

Gio21 · 05-20-13, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

How's that affect the game? I don't think i've seen many night games played out there to really know much.

Im out here in the bay area and a huge giants fan. Been to plenty of night games out here. As of right now its extremely warm up here today and looks like its only going to get better. As for ATT if the weather continues as it should the ball should fly well today. Although, the conditions at ATT can change drastically during any given time, on days where there is no wind and hot like today the ball tends to carry well.

Also, Giants typically do well against left handers and Duke is garbage in general! I may play the over just seeing how bad Volgy has struggled and should continue to regress and we should see a very offensive game today with the conditions and the sub par talent on mound t1oday. I will also add the Giants bullpen has gotten beaten up and has been over exhausted during their last road trip. I hope all of this helps

EXhoosier10 · 05-20-13, 12:53 PM

It does, Gio, thanks. When I first saw the pitching matchup yesterday I immediately wanted to play the over and vogelsong's implosion, but saw the total was at 8. I thought that was somewhat high considering a night game in SF, but the weather report makes the line a little more understandbale.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 01:03 PM

Monday 5.20.2013 updated card
1* Mariners/Tribe under 8 (-110) - LOSER
1* Mariners/Tribe FF under 4 (+100) - LOSER

0-2 -2.1u start

double bah. oh well, at least they weren't a sweat. i'll do a rain dance to try and wash out the full-game total, but it'd be a true miracle.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

Biff, you made some good points in another thread regarding umpires in playing totals. What are the best sites to track umpire tendencies and umpire assignments?

Covers is good for tendencies, covers match-up page and MLB.com for assignments (MLB is official). Main thing is that you can anticipate assignments in advance by mapping out who is working at the start of a series.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

How's that affect the game? I don't think i've seen many night games played out there to really know much.

Google "marine layer baseball"

Marine layer, when present, tends to diminish how much the ball carries during night games. Pretty fascinating. Always good to have a local point of view on this, thank you Gio. Good to know that weather is warm and looking to stay that way for marine layer purpose, as i understand it.

Not sure that i'm in a big rush to play the over. Game not until 10 est and i can have the opportunity to know umps, lineups, weather. if it starts to move to 8', maybe, but i don't think that will happen.

Gio21 · 05-20-13, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Google "marine layer baseball"

Marine layer, when present, tends to diminish how much the ball carries during night games. Pretty fascinating. Always good to have a local point of view on this, thank you Gio. Good to know that weather is warm and looking to stay that way for marine layer purpose, as i understand it.

Not sure that i'm in a big rush to play the over. Game not until 10 est and i can have the opportunity to know umps, lineups, weather. if it starts to move to 8', maybe, but i don't think that will happen.

No problem Biff! Just trying to help! But thanks for officially putting a name to this phenomenon. Dating back to Candelstick everything I read abut the "marine layer" is spot on! Ball doesnt carry well at night but during games when its hot the ball always carries and the ballpark is more live, especially towards Left Center.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by Gio21

No problem Biff! Just trying to help! But thanks for officially putting a name to this phenomenon. Dating back to Candelstick everything I read abut the "marine layer" is spot on! Ball doesnt carry well at night but during games when its hot the ball always carries and the ballpark is more live, especially towards Left Center.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 02:04 PM

one over that i might play without knowing ump is A's/Rangers. looks like 18 mph wind tunnel and this could resemble a softball game. if it starts to go higher than 10, may lock that in. that said, Kulpa was ump for game in Arlington with wind tunnel last week and was very low-scoring (2-1 with Porcello/Tepesch).

also thinking about Yanks, Yanks TT over 4' and/or Yanks + Red Sox two-teamer. also Rockies.

YoGaddy · 05-20-13, 02:09 PM

Of course when I start tailing your picks we lose the first two today lol but lets get it back and some tonight! Best of luck biff

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by YoGaddy

Of course when I start tailing your picks we lose the first two today lol but lets get it back and some tonight! Best of luck biff

What a bizarre game. Tribe has now tied it up and going to extra innings. Didn't expect this type of excitement from a getaway game.

Vinnie Paz · 05-20-13, 02:46 PM

How do you feel about thst yanks game to go over? Orioles hit cc fairly well and vice versa on nyy regards

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

How do you feel about thst yanks game to go over? Orioles hit cc fairly well and vice versa on nyy regards

I like over 8', just like Yanks TT over 4' and Yanks ML better. My model has that game with 9.0-9.35 runs. The one qualifier would be if that game gets one of the under umps out there tonight (though it won't be Iassogna because he just worked in Baltimore; also can't be Holbrook, who would be great for over, as he just worked Yanks). Don't get me wrong, depending on the ump, it would decrease how much i like over. Wouldn't take under regardless of ump.

StevenSuarez · 05-20-13, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Was expecting weaker lineups from both teams. Glad that Gomes is behind the plate, though. 12:05pm Mariners (H. Iwakuma - R) @ Indians (S. Kazmir - L) Gametime Forecast: 76°F • Clear • 8%PoP
	1. Michael Saunders (L) CF 2. Jason Bay (R) LF 3. Kyle Seager (L) 3B 4. Kendrys Morales (S) DH 5. Michael Morse (R) RF 6. Justin Smoak (S) 1B 7. Kelly Shoppach (R) C 8. Robert Andino (R) 2B 9. Brendan Ryan (R) SS	1. Michael Bourn (L) CF 2. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B 3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS 4. Nick Swisher (S) 1B 5. Carlos Santana (S) DH 6. Mark Reynolds (R) 3B 7. Michael Brantley (L) LF 8. Ryan Raburn (R) RF 9. Yan Gomes (R) C

Yeah I bet you are glad Gomes is behind the plate. Haha, another insane win.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 03:02 PM

Tribe wins on a walk-off 3-run homer by Yan Gomes. I'm trying to recall a crazier game for the Tribe and cannot from recent history. Obviously wish that i hadn't bet on it, never saw this coming.

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by StevenSuarez

Yeah I bet you are glad Gomes is behind the plate. Haha, another insane win.

no kidding!

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 03:34 PM

adding

1* Yankees team total over 4' (-120)
1* ML Parlay: Yankees + Red Sox (+189)
1* A's/Rangers over 10 (-111)

Monday 5.20.2013 updated card
1* Mariners/Tribe under 8 (-110) - LOSER
1* Mariners/Tribe FF under 4 (+100) - LOSER
1* Yankees TT over 4' (-120)
1* ML Parlay: Yankees + Red Sox (+189)
1* A's/Rangers over 10 (-111)

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 03:35 PM

Per discussion earlier, booking the A's/Rangers over 10 now. Taking off soon for a few hours and concerned that it will be 10' or 10 with 25c juice by the time i get back. Here's hoping we get a good ump. Like Rocks, waiting for better number. Like Nats/Giants over, waiting for ump. BOL to all tonight.

ExodusNZ · 05-20-13, 05:40 PM

Is over 4' 4.5?

YoGaddy · 05-20-13, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by ExodusNZ

Is over 4' 4.5?

Yeah

ExodusNZ · 05-20-13, 05:57 PM

Thanks - What a pity - The total has gone up to 10.5 now

BiffTFinancial · 05-20-13, 09:07 PM

adding

2* Nationals/Giants over 8 (-105)

Jerry Meals behind the plate.

Monday 5.20.2013 updated card
2* Nationals/Giants over 8 (-105)
1* Mariners/Tribe under 8 (-110) - LOSER
1* Mariners/Tribe FF under 4 (+100) - LOSER
1* Yankees TT over 4' (-120)
1* ML Parlay: Yankees + Red Sox (+189)
1* A's/Rangers over 10 (-111)

Looking like an ugly day. Tail accordingly, if at all.

BiffTFinancial · 05-21-13, 06:20 AM

Monday 5.20.2013 final card
2* Nationals/Giants over 8 (-105) - PUSH
1* Mariners/Tribe under 8 (-110) - LOSER
1* Mariners/Tribe FF under 4 (+100) - LOSER
1* Yankees TT over 4' (-120) - WINNER
1* ML Parlay: Yankees + Red Sox (+189) - LOSER
1* A's/Rangers over 10 (-111) - WINNER

2-3-1 -1.1u

YTD: 118-101-19 +34.03u

Redscot · 05-21-13, 06:52 AM

Sup BiffTee, looking good in here my man, I wouldn't expect any less though, you put in the work. Looking over the thread I got a question for ya. (I could figure it out for myself, but am too damn busy or lazy

).

I see you like to parlay a couple of big chalk teams on a regular basis and was wondering if you think that is more profitable long term than playing them each at the -1 Rl? As I said, I haven't really looked deep into your results, so maybe you are up big on these parlays, just curious what your opinion was on that.

Anyway, always good to see guys in the black, keep up the good work bro.

BiffTFinancial · 05-21-13, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Sup BiffTee, looking good in here my man, I wouldn't expect any less though, you put in the work. Looking over the thread I got a question for ya. (I could figure it out for myself, but am too damn busy or lazy

).

I see you like to parlay a couple of big chalk teams on a regular basis and was wondering if you think that is more profitable long term than playing them each at the -1 Rl? As I said, I haven't really looked deep into your results, so maybe you are up big on these parlays, just curious what your opinion was on that.

Anyway, always good to see guys in the black, keep up the good work bro.

Hey, Redscot, great to see you, pal. It's been awhile. Hope that you are well.

I cannot argue with your point about parlays at all, and you are correct - i generally take two faves in the -130 to -200 range and parlay them. I started off really well with them, then went cold (missed like 7 straight over the course of 10 days), and they have been middling ever since. It's funny that you should mention this as I have been contemplating lately the wisdom of my parlay strategy. I am a big fan of the -1 RL (while many people get frustrated by pushes, i do not; i embrace pushes, as you can see from my record (though to be fair, a few of the 19 were cancelled plays)). Bottom-line: I may be playing too many parlays (almost one per day) and subjecting myself to too much risk and variance. One area where i love them is day-night parlays, which i think offsets some of the inherent risk of needing two correct results to win.

Thanks for stopping by. Busy day for me, back later.

Redscot · 05-21-13, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Hey, Redscot, great to see you, pal. It's been awhile. Hope that you are well.

I cannot argue with your point about parlays at all, and you are correct - i generally take two faves in the -130 to -200 range and parlay them. I started off really well with them, then went cold (missed like 7 straight over the course of 10 days), and they have been middling ever since. It's funny that you should mention this as I have been contemplating lately the wisdom of my parlay strategy. I am a big fan of the -1 RL (while many people get frustrated by pushes, i do not; i embrace pushes, as you can see from my record (though to be fair, a few of the 19 were cancelled plays)). Bottom-line: I may be playing too many parlays (almost one per day) and subjecting myself to too much risk and variance. One area where i love them is day-night parlays, which i think offsets some of the inherent risk of needing two correct results to win.

Thanks for stopping by. Busy day for me, back later.

Again, I am no ev master (you have a better handle on that than I), so it was just a gut reaction on first glance. A bit gun shy atm to be honest as I haven't had time to really cap a card in depth this season and finally had a full morning to do so this Sunday and probably had the worst day in my life

. Luckily I didn't bet heavy, but my leans were all sorts of F@#$d up!

pacocn · 05-21-13, 08:25 AM

Biff, Bol today, keep up the great work!!!!
Red, great to see you, long time, no see

Smutbucket · 05-21-13, 09:37 AM

Biff, what you think about over in sea/laa tonight? I was liking it but Im a little worried about the marine layer you were just talking about, ump lean on it?

BiffTFinancial · 05-21-13, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

Biff, what you think about over in sea/laa tonight? I was liking it but Im a little worried about the marine layer you were just talking about, ump lean on it?

Hey, Smut, what's up? I lean over there but probably not enough to play it personally, though i can see why it looks like it could soar over. We don't know ump yet (could be Iassogna, Barksdale, Gibson, Everitt or Timmons, most likely Barksdale i think based upon geography (he was just in SD)). Of those five, Timmons leans over, Gibson leans under, Barksdale and Everitt are moderate under umps, Iassogna is big-time under ump.

Vinnie Paz · 05-21-13, 01:50 PM

Biff what are you eyeing so far tonight?