UFC 278 Aldo vs. Dvalishvili MMA Odds and Picks: Former Champ Looks to Shine

Themi Alexis

Last Updated: September 17, 2022 11:02 AM EDT • 2 min 34 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Jose Aldo looks to continue his strong run with a win at UFC 278. Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images via AFP.

Jose Aldo will look to halt Merab Dvalishvili’s winning streak and extend his own in a pivotal bantamweight matchup at Saturday’s UFC 278. Have a look at our Aldo-Dvalishvili picks below before this weekend’s event.

Following his brutal 2020 loss to Petr Yan at UFC 251, the beloved Aldo has rebounded with three straight wins and proven he can still sling leather with the best bantamweights. The former featherweight king most recently faced Rob Font this past December, outstriking him over five rounds to claim a decision win.

Aldo now meets another streaking contender in Dvalishvili, who’s rebounded from a rough start to his UFC career with seven straight wins. The Georgia native was last seen scoring a comeback TKO of Marlon Moraes - a foe he and Aldo have in common - last September, and he heads to Salt Lake City with a 14-4 slate as a pro.

Will Aldo earn his fourth straight win with a vintage performance, or will Dvalishvili pass his stiffest test yet with a workmanlike effort?

Here are my Aldo-Dvalishvili picks and predictions for this main-card bantamweight bout (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook).

Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Aug. 20, 10 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: PPV, ESPN+
Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT

Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Odds Analysis

Aldo’s recent streak and decorated resume aren’t enough to make him the favorite for his date with Dvalishvili, as lines on the ex-featherweight kingpin have held fairly steady from +114 (FanDuel) to +120 (Caesars).

With 17 KO/TKOs in 31 pro victories, an 18th stoppage via strikes for Aldo is available at a tempting +500 with FanDuel, while those counting on a more methodical showing from the former champ will find a win on points at +250 with the same sportsbook.

Dvalishvili vies for his eighth straight victory as a -146 favorite over at FanDuel, with DraftKings offering the best value on the Georgian at -135. Ten of Dvalishvili’s 14 pro wins - and all but one of his seven straight - have come on points, so if you’re banking on the favorite to extend his streak, you’ll find better value on a decision win, with both Caesars and PointsBet offering +140.

Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Picks

Who Will Win Aldo vs. Dvalishvili?

Aldo (+120)

These two could show each other far too much respect and produce a snoozer, but I see Aldo winning regardless.

If Dvalishvili chooses to push the action and flurry his way into his takedowns, he’ll be vulnerable to myriad counters from the superior striker in Aldo. Should he pursue his shots a little more carefully, I’m counting on Aldo’s legendary takedown defense to keep things standing.

As long as Aldo can keep his back off the fence and avoid indulging Dvalishvili from the clinch, the former champion should stuff his foe’s shots and make him pay for every attempt with his blistering combos to make it four in a row.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Over/Under

Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)

Dvalishvili’s penchant for playing the aggressor and relentlessly pursuing takedowns has me thinking he’ll get caught with a nasty hook from Aldo before long, and with three rounds to work over the five he’s long been accustomed to, Aldo will likely get busy with his hands from jump street.

Granted, Dvalishili’s forward pressure, volume striking, and generally busy style could earn him another decision, but if Aldo can keep the fight in space, it will be a matter of when, not if, he catches Dvalishvili clean and ends this contest before the final horn sounds.

Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Winning Method

Aldo by KO/TKO (+500)

Had Moraes not gassed out, he’d have finished Dvalishvili in their September meeting, and I think Aldo does what Moraes couldn’t.

Aldo is sharing the cage with a veritable takedown machine who sets a frenetic pace and usually throws first but isn’t nearly as polished, and I expect these habits will leave Dvalishvili open to Aldo’s patented combination counters.

I think Aldo will take advantage of the shorter fight time, and once he finds his timing, it shouldn’t be long before he drops a charging Dvalishvili and swarms him to secure his 18th career KO/TKO.

Where to Bet on Aldo vs. Dvalishvili

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting too ls.

Aldo-Dvalishvili UFC 278 picks made 8/19/2022 at 12:52 a.m. ET

Written By:
Themi Alexis

Themistoklis Alexis is a writer and editor based in Montreal, Quebec. He earned his degree in Journalism from Centennial College in Toronto before working for theScore as an MMA news editor from 2016 to 2018, contributing news stories, fight recaps, and features. His introduction to the sport came in 2007 with Randy Couture's thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74, and he's since spent countless hours watching people in far better shape than him sling zingers in four-ounce gloves. When he isn't getting his regularly scheduled dose of on-screen ultraviolence or losing sleep over his weekly MMA picks, he enjoys reading, watching old films, sketching, and podcasting about filmmakers from bygone eras of cinema.