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Premier League Best Bets
Premier League Best Bets

Three-time reigning champions Manchester City sit atop the table through the first 11 games of the season, and we look at their match and more with our Premier League player props and best bets for Matchday 12 based on the best Premier League odds.

It was an absolutely wild week of Premier League action on Matchday 11, as four of the top five teams in the table dropped points. Meanwhile, Manchester City continued their scintillating run of form after back-to-back losses earlier this season, destroying Bournemouth by a score of 6-1. 

City are once again top of the table, and they are significant favorites by our Premier League title odds as a result (they're also the favorites to win the Champions League).

Will City add another club to their growing list of victims?

Here are our Premier League props and best bets for Matchday 12 (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Premier League best bets for Matchday 12

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Premier League schedule and odds for Matchday 12

(Odds via bet365)

Premier League Matchday 12 player props

Bruno Fernandes to score vs. Luton Town (+188 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

We're kicking things off with a goalscoring prop trading at nearly 2/1 odds. Admittedly, it doesn't feel great betting on any United player to score, as the team has managed just 12 goals all season. However, there are a couple of reasons why this bet presents good value.

First, United's 12 goals have come on 15.3 expected goals, so they're creating more scoring opportunities than that total would indicate. Bruno Fernandes is tied for first on the team with three Premier League goals - including one in the club's last league match - and sits second with 3.1 expected goals. Additionally, the Portuguese midfielder takes penalties for United, further helping our cause.

United have been one of the Premier League's most disappointing teams this season, and manager Erik ten Hag is perhaps one more draw or loss away from being sacked. As a result, United should enter this game looking to make an example of recently promoted Luton Town, especially after the latter managed to hold Liverpool to a draw.

Finally, Luton Town sit last in the Premier League with 15.3 expected goals against in away matches, which is significantly more than Bournemouth's 12.2 (the second-worst mark). 

Caesars offers us a good price on this prop, as most of our other best sports betting apps hover around +170 to +180. BetRivers is as short as +140 for Bruno to score.

Premier League Matchday 12 game picks

Aston Villa ML vs. Fulham (-167 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Three teams have been perfect at home in the Premier League this season: Manchester City (duh), Liverpool (double-duh), and Aston Villa. In fact, it's the latter that's actually been the best home side in the league by goal differential with plus-16 to City's plus-13.

Villa have been ruthless going forward at home, and that attacking prowess should pay dividends against a Fulham side that sits fourth-last in xGA away from home.

The home side also has a little extra to play for this week after a disappointing 2-0 loss to Nottingham Forest put a real halt to Villa's Premier League title aspirations. They'll look to bounce back from that defeat in a big way, and Fulham's inability to do really anything positive away from home (they've also managed the joint-third-fewest xG in that setting) should help matters.

Almost all of our other best sports betting sites have Villa priced at -170 to win, so we're getting a bit of value with these odds at BetRivers. It's a lot to lay in juice, but you'll likely feel comfortable with the result by around the 30th minute.

Bournemouth vs. Newcastle Over 2.5 goals (-150 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Newcastle are generally known for their suffocating defensive work rate, as they sit third in the league in xGA, both in all settings and, specifically, away from home. So, why are we backing the Over on a 2.5-goal total in this match?

To start, this Newcastle side isn't the one we're used to seeing. Between injuries and suspensions, Newcastle will be without defensive anchors Sven Botman and Dan Burn, as well as tireless midfielder Bruno Guimaraes. Sure, Bournemouth sit second-last in the Premier League in xG at home, but this is a matchup in which it can somewhat right the ship.

The only worry about this bet is if Newcastle can contribute enough at the other end, as striker Alexander Isak is expected to miss this affair and fellow forward Callum Wilson is also dealing with a knock. The hope is that Wilson is fit enough to play at least 45, but this serves as another reminder that one of the biggest issues with betting on soccer is the lack of transparency when it comes to injuries.

Despite that, though, I still feel confident enough that we'll see at least three goals in this match, as has been the case in four of Newcastle's last five away games in all competitions.

Caesars is offering the Over at about five points better than the odds at our other best sportsbooks.

Manchester City ML vs. Chelsea (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Lost in all the talk of VAR-related delays and red cards in Spurs vs. Chelsea was the fact that, despite winning 4-1, the Blues looked truly atrocious. They played against nine men (who were playing an absurdly high line) for more than 40 minutes and managed only six shots on target for the match. Additionally, the final two goals to provide Chelsea with the flattering scoreline came in the 94th and 97th minutes.

OK, in truth, Chelsea's "disaster" of a season has been somewhat overstated. If they had a striker who could finish his chances - Nicolas Jackson had just two goals on 4.2 xG before the Spurs match - then they'd be in much better shape, as their fifth-best 9.9 expected goal differential suggests.

But this pick is as much about City as it is about Chelsea. The Blues can get away with squandering their chances against some of the league's weaker sides, but that won't be the case against Europe's best club.

City own a league-best 8.1 xGA, and that number is a truly wild 3.7 across six away matches. Meanwhile, they've managed 14.4 xG in those away games, nearly three more than the second-best mark.

There was some worry that Erling Haaland could miss this match with an injury when he came off after 45 minutes against Bournemouth. Those fears were put to rest on Tuesday when he scored twice against Young Boys in City's 3-0 Champions League win.

In the end, this one is a bit easy to justify: City are the best side in Europe and Chelsea are quite flawed as a unit. Additionally, we're getting good value on these odds at DraftKings, as our other best live betting sites are hovering around -130 or even shorter. 

Premier League player props and best bets made 11/8/2023 at 10 a.m. ET.

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