Columbus Crew vs. Pumas UNAM Prediction: Tuesday's Leagues Cup Best Bets & Picks (Aug. 11)
My Columbus Crew vs. Pumas UNAM prediction breaks down a key Leagues Cup clash, with the tournament over for one squad and a chance at the knockouts in reach for the other. Kickoff from ScottsMiracle-Gro Field in Columbus, Ohio, is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV.
The 3-way moneyline odds highly favor the home squad, with Columbus lined as a -175 betting favorite; the draw comes in at +333 and Pumas at +375. I've found better ways to attack the slate.
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⚽ Columbus vs. Pumas predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus -1 asian handicap | -105 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.95u |
| Pumas Under 0.5 goals | +162 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 1.22u |
| Pumas Over 3.5 corners | +110 via bet365 | 0.25u -> 0.28u |
⚽ Who will win Columbus vs. Pumas?
There are a few things at play here that make a game like Columbus vs. Pumas a little hard to handicap: first, Pumas has already been eliminated from the Leagues Cup, so motivation is a toss-up; second, Pumas has such a small sample size (three games in Liga MX, two games in Leagues Cup) to draw much inference from their numbers.
But I'm backing the Crew because of how sound a defensive team they are. Columbus has allowed only 10.06 shots/game and 4.17 SOT/game in MLS this season, and that's translated to 1.19 xGA/game (2nd in MLS) and only 20 touches allowed in their box/game (3rd in MLS). Those numbers have translated pretty well to the Leagues Cup, where Columbus has allowed just two goals in two games (and one an own goal!)
Columbus needs a result here, sitting just outside the teams moving to the knockout phase of the tournament, so the push to generate goal differential will be on.
Rather than simply taking the moneyline (-175), you can grab the Asian Handicap of Columbus -1, picking up a win on a victory of 2+ goals but securing a push if Pumas plays a loose game and keeps things close.
Score prediction: Columbus 2, Pumas 0
💵 My best bet: Pumas Under 0.5 goals (+162)
This is largely a play on the number. Pumas has struggled to score in the Leagues Cup, and that's not exactly a shock. Despite scoring 7 while posting a 2-0-1 Liga MX record, they've generated only 9 shots/game and 3 SOT/game in domestic play and have vastly outproduced their total 3.6 xG.
This price carries an implied probability of 38.17%, and I'm guessing the true number should be closer to 50% or 55%. The BTTS: No market is +120, which is still more reasonable, but in my projections, it is asking for the same market: Pumas not to score.
🦶 Who will score in Columbus vs. Pumas?
Daniel Gazdag, M, Columbus (+162)
Gazbag is has been a midfielder in title only during the Leagues Cup, lining up top in a 4-4-2 that we've seen the Crew employ in both victories. While Columbus isn't a team that generally produces a lot of offense, Gazdag has been the focal piece of what they have produced.
He's had two shots in both games so far (and that market is priced as an outrageous -500 to happen again on Tuesday) and he's hit the target in both games, logging three shots on target.
Columbus Crew vs. Pumas UNAM goal-scorer pick: Daniel Gazdag (+162)
🥅 Will both teams score in Columbus vs. Pumas?
I don't like Pumas' chances of scoring tonight, its something I've broken down at length above.
Columbus is a far superior defensive side, and has continues to prove that throughout the MLS season, despite giving up one in each of the Leagues Cup games so far. The Crew bring a high motivation to play a tight defensive game, given advancing to the knockouts could be down to goal differential, so they'll be playing their best in their own end once they snag a lead.
There is a chance that Pumas can get the job done, given the lack of pressure might result in them playing a more wide-open game than usual, but I'm backing defense to win the day for the hosts.
The issue with this bet, for me at least, is that it's the same opinion as Pumas Under 0.5 goals. Except the price on that is way better. I don't see a Pumas shutout victory as one of the most likely results here, by a large margin.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: No (+120 via bet365)
📊 Columbus vs. Pumas odds
📺 How to watch Columbus vs. Pumas
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 11
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: ScottsMiracle-Gro Field (Columbus, Ohio)
- TV: Apple TV
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