MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Longshot Picks, Parlay & Odds (Aug. 10)
💥 What Are the Best Home Run Bets Today?
My best home run predictions today are Junior Caminero (+220), Shohei Ohtani (+240), and Jackson Chourio (+450). All are slugging .526 or better against fastballs and are facing starting pitchers who throw fastballs more than half the time. Later in the day, I also added a longshot pick on Starling Marte (+900), as BetMGM still has him listed at too high of a payout.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 10
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero to homer (+220 via FanDuel) | 0.91u β 2u | Caminero is slugging .649 vs. fastballs, which Lopez throws 59% of the time vs. RHH. |
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+240 via BetMGM) | 0.83u β 2u | Cameron throws 57% fastballs vs. LHH, and Ohtani has a .669 xSLG vs. fastballs. |
| Jackson Chourio to homer (+450 via DraftKings) | 0.44u β 2u | Chourio is slugging .526 vs. fastballs, which Mize throws 51% of the time vs. RHH. |
| Starling Marte to homer (+900 via BetMGM) | 0.22u β 2u | Marte is +900 at BetMGM, but he's just +800 at FanDuel, which is better at pricing player props. |
Total wagered: 2.4 units | Max profit: 8 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+220)
Caminero has homered four times over his last nine games and is facing a favorable pitching matchup today.
He gets A's lefty Jacob Lopez, who throws fastballs 59% of the time to right-handed hitters. Caminero is slugging .649 against fastballs, his highest SLG against any pitch type.
The Rays slugger has homered twice in three games at Sutter Health Park and should be offered at shorter odds today against Lopez in West Sacramento. Caminero to homer (+220) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Caminero vs. Lopez
Caminero is 1-for-5 in his career against Lopez, with his lone hit being a two-run homer.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+240)
Not only has Ohtani homered in six of his last 11 home games, but he gets to face Royals starter Noah Cameron today, who has allowed six home runs across his last seven starts.
Cameron throws fastballs 57% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Ohtani has a .669 xSLG against fastballs. While the Dodgers' two-way star hasn't homered in three straight games, his last six outings were on the road, so returning to L.A. should help him hit his 27th of the season.
Ohtani to homer (+240) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+450)
Chourio getting +450 odds (an 18.18% implied probability) to homer today is disrespectful. He's homered in four of his last six games and has a favorable matchup against Padres starter Casey Mize. Chourio is slugging .526 against fastballs, which Mize throws 51% of the time to right-handed hitters.
Mize ranks in the 10th percentile in ground-ball percentage (33.5%), while Chourio ranks in the 90th percentile in barrel percentage (14.2%), giving us another reason to like his chances of going yard today. Chourio to homer (+450) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
π₯ Best longshot home run pick today
(Editor's note: Updated at 6:28 p.m. ET to include a late longshot pick after finding value on Marte.)
Longshot home run pick: Starling Marte (+900)
Just looking at this from a top-down perspective, FanDuel is known as the best-rec book at pricing player props, and it's listing Starling Marte at just +800 odds.
But let's step away from the market for a second and look at what Marte has done on the field. Marte has extra-base hits in two of his last three games, including a home run against the Cubs last time out.
Against Dodgers starter Tarik Skubal, he is 2-for-6 in his career with a double, so giving him just a 10% implied probability of hitting a home run seems too low.
Marte to homer (+900) at BetMGM - which ranks first in our top sportsbook promos - is the best line available.
🤑 More MLB picks for Monday
Looking for more? Dive into Mike Spector's Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Astros | 1+ home runs | +325 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | A's | Over 1.5 hits, runs & RBIs | -115 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | 1+ home runs | +240 |
| Pete Alonso | Orioles | 1+ home runs | +333 |
| Freddy Peralta | Rays | Over 15.5 outs | -110 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Junior Caminero to homer
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Jackson Chourio to homer
Best odds: +6008 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-32-4 | -4.52 units β | -11.2% β |
| Player props | 6-23-3 | -2.86 units β | -13.2% β |
| Game props | 3-3 | -1.48 units β | -12.4% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
Related Articles
