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Argentina forward Lionel Messi ( plays the ball against Canada defender Moise Bombito as we look at our best Argentina vs. Canada prediction
Argentina forward Lionel Messi ( plays the ball against Canada defender Moise Bombito during the second half at Mercedez-Benz Stadium. Photo by: Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports.

Lionel Messi is on the cusp of another major international final. Standing in Argentina’s way is a Canada team that's been daring to dream. Since their opening-game defeat to La Albiceleste, the Canucks have gone unbeaten through this Copa America tournament. 

Argentina is the heavy favorite for this match at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Tuesday at -286 odds through Betway. They’re in the team's seventh semifinal in eight tournaments.

The Canadians have never played in the Copa America before. Can the +800 underdog shock the reigning champions? Canada has never scored against the Argentines.

Argentina vs. Canada predictions for Tuesday

Argentina vs. Canada odds via Betway; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Argentina vs. Canada score prediction

Argentina 2 vs. Canada 0

Argentina has won their last 10 matches against Concacaf opponents in official competitions. They haven’t conceded a goal in the last six, dating back to 2011. Canada has never scored against La Albiceleste in four previous encounters, including two matches at the Pan American Games in the 1970s.

Three of the four games between these nations have ended with Argentina winning 2-0. The world champions have scored 11 goals in their last 10 games in all competitions while conceding just two. The Canucks, meanwhile, have scored twice and shipped seven during that span.

This is Argentina’s fourth straight semifinal under head coach Lionel Scaloni (Copa America and World Cup). Their irrepressible form and experience will help them to a comfortable victory over Copa America’s debutants. 

Best odds: +450 via Betway | Implied probability: 18.2%

Argentina vs. Canada anytime goal scorer prediction

Lautaro Martinez, Argentina

Martinez is leading our Copa America top goal scorer odds with four goals so far. Venezuela’s Solomon Rondon was his closest threat with three, but Canada eliminated his team during the previous round. Martinez boasts a 50% shooting accuracy and is averaging 47 minutes per goal at this Copa America tournament.

He's been influential in La Albiceleste’s offense when on the field, especially as Lionel Messi struggles with an injury. The Inter Milan forward has scored six goals in his last six games for Argentina in all competitions, including one against Canada at the start of this tournament.

His lethal form, and willingness to shoot, could fire them into the final on Tuesday night. I break this down further in my Argentina vs. Canada player props.

Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%

Argentina vs. Canada best bet

Argentina 3-way handicap (-1)

La Albiceleste have been almost unstoppable since their World Cup win in 2022.

They've lost once in their last 18 matches in all competitions, winning 16 within 90 minutes and conceding just five goals. Their quarterfinal victory over Ecuador came via a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw in regulation. However, Canada has notched just one win in their last six games after 90 minutes. That was the 1-0 triumph over Peru in the second game of this tournament.

Les Rouges have scored twice in those six matches, while Argentina has conceded just one goal during this competition. They shut out the Canucks in the opener.

Canada generated more expected goals than their opponents in their last three Copa America matches against Venezuela, Chile, and Peru. The only team to surpass them in that metric during the tournament was Argentina in their opening match (3xG to 1.2 xG).

It’s been a fairytale run for Canada, but Messi, Martinez and Co. will show them why they’re No. 1 in world as Argentina book their place in Sunday’s showpiece while also covering the spread.  

Best odds: +105 via Betway | Implied probability: 48.8%

Argentina vs. Canada odds & game info

  • When: Tuesday, July 9
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • How to watch: TSN
  • Favorite: Argentina (-286 via Betway)

Argentina vs. Canada predictions made Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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