New York City FC vs. Toronto FC Prediction: Friday's MLS Picks & Best Bets (July 31)
After a brief break for All-Star festivities, MLS returns to us with one-game slate on Friday. I'm breaking down the action with my New York City FC vs. Toronto FC prediction, coming with my best bets and favorite goal scorer for the game.
New York City FC is a -150 betting favorite on the 3-way moneyline, with the draw coming in at +290 and Toronto FC a distant +375. Play from Yankee Stadium in New York gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV.
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⚽ New York City FC vs. Toronto FC predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC moneyline | -150 via bet365 | 0.25u -> 0.19u |
| Toronto FC Over 3.5 corners | -134 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 1.12u |
| Both teams to score: Yes | -130 via FanDuel | 0.75u -> 0.58u |
⚽ Who will win New York City FC vs. Toronto FC?
Toronto FC has probably been a little hard done by by a couple of recent refereeing decisions, but New York City FC still gets the edge from me at home. Toronto's underlying metrics aren't as far off NYCFC, with a similar shot volume and a similar xGA, but New York has it's edges.
New York City FC has tended toward slightly better shot quality, create more big chances, and are the more efficient finishing team. Importantly, they control more of the possession than Toronto.
All that combined should be enough to get them the edge on their home turf, although I think the market is very efficiently priced so I wouldn't proceed with more than a quarter unit.
Score prediction: New York City FC 2, Toronto 1
💵 My best bet: Toronto Over 3.5 corners (-134)
Toronto's corner generation continues to be amongst the league leaders, with the eighth most across MLS (96 total, 5.6 per game). I'm banking on that offsetting NYCFC's natural ability to suppress corners. It's a strength vs. strength, but I like the visitors to prevail.
The Reds' dynamic wingers like Salloi and explosive wingbacks like Laryea push into wide channels. Toronto builds their offense from crosses, which tend to be blocked by defenders for corners.
🦶 Who will score in New York City FC vs. Toronto FC?
Talles Magno, F, NYCFC (+175)
Magno is back from a leg injury and picked up his first start of the season against the Chicago Fire on Saturday (84 minutes) after picking up 36 minutes off the bench vs. Columbus in the first game post-World Cup.
New York should have the volume edge in shooting, and Magno's per 90 stats are appealing. He's netted twice from a sub role (0.61 goals/90), while taking up 3.69 shots/90 and 1.54 SOT/90. Those numbers should translate reasonably against Toronto, and the Reds' allowing a 15.27% conversion mark on the year (the sixth-worst in the league) is appealing if he can get a couple of goes on target.
Best New York City FC vs. Toronto FC goal-scorer pick: Talles Magno (+175 via bet365)
🥅 Will both teams score in New York City FC vs. Toronto FC?
This actually clocks as one of my favorite markets for the game - although it wouldn't crack the bet card as one of the best plays of the week just this game. Neither of these teams projects as elite in shots on target from the offensive side of things, but neither is close to elite at suppressing them, either. We can expect both squads to probably log 5ish shots on target.
The implied probability of this market comes in at 56.5%, and I'm projecting this one at around 60%, so a small edge. NYCFC and Toronto have both only kept three clean sheets in 17 games each, and both sides have only been shut out three times.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (-130 via FanDuel)
📊 New York City FC vs. Toronto FC odds
We're tracking the latest World Cup odds and favorites to win this year's tournament.
📺 How to watch New York City FC vs. Toronto FC
- Date: Friday, Sept. 31
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium (New York)
- TV: Apple TV
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