Champions League League Best Bets Matchweek 1: UCL Expert Picks & Predictions

With the title for Europe's crown getting underway this week we're making our Champions League best bets. It's tough to handicap a lot of these squads, as domestic play for most leagues is just a few fixtures old and teams are continuing to settle in new players following the summer transfer window. 

But our Champions League highlight three values that seem ripe for the taking advantage of, featuring some of the biggest teams in the world.

🔮 Champions League best bets: Matchweek 1

Here are my Champions League predictions for Matchweek 1 as part of our soccer picks this week.

💰 Best Champions League bet: Atletico Over 9.5 shots (+100) vs. Liverpool

This is largely a play on Liverpool's poor defense and Atletico's expected output. You can't directly translate numbers from Spain to the continental tournament, but this mark sits well below their average; they've been putting up 15.25 shots/game domestically while outpacing their opponents' average volume faced. Part of the issue might be coming from an inability to score regularly, but that could be the case in Liverpool as well. 

Atletico have multiple ball-progressing/1v1 outlets rather than relying on one central striker to generate everything, and that will give a Liverpool team struggling with play from the backline and the "defensive" midfield.

And for the hosts, they haven't been the best defending team the Prem has seen in three games. Nottingham Forest (12 shots) and Ipswich Town (14 shots) have managed to overcome this number, and they're far from Champions League quality. 

• Kickoff: Wednesday, Sept. 9 at 3 p.m. ET
• Venue: Anfield (Liverpool, England)
• How to watch: Paramount+

🔥 More Champions League Matchweek 1 predictions

Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa pick: Club Brugge moneyline (+162)

This is a bit of a longer shot play, and three-way moneylines always run into the potential issue with landing on a draw. Also, Brugge has historically struggled with English sides. 

But, Aston Villas has been abysmal in domestic play, and this isn't the same Aston Villa team that even qualified for the tournament. Villa hasn't scored in three Premier League games (they've actually only had one shot on target between the three games): that's a team that hasn't gelled yet, and hasn't even shown a lot of hope that it's on the horizon.

The projected midfield with Vanaken and Vetlesen should handle the midfield battle, and the Belgian attackers should keep the back four moving, with Forbs and Diakhon stretching the fullbacks. This needs to hit about 38% of the time, but my projections have Brugge as the better team about 45% of the time.

• Kickoff: Tuesday, Sept. 8 at 12:45 p.m. ET
• Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium (Brugge, Belgium)
• How to watch: CBSSN/Paramount+

Barcelona vs. Feyenoord pick: Barcelona Over 7.5 shots on target (-138)

The shortest odds of any of my four Champions League Matchweek 1 best bets, I'm not buying that Feyenoord can bring their Eredivisie defensive numbers to Europe in a clash with a global giant. 

Barcelona won't be able to take their foot off the gas given how short the league phase is (and even if they do, the bench is still more than capable here; let's be serious). Feyenoord will spend long periods pinned back against a squad featuring players like Yamal, Raphinha, Fermin, and Pedri, and that's a recipe for disaster. Barcelona should repeatedly enter the penalty area and generate shots from both sides.

We've seen the La Liga giants eclipse this number in three of four domestic games, and they'll want to open play with a statement game against the visitors. 

• Kickoff: Wednesday, Sept. 9 at 12:45 p.m. ET
• Venue: Camp Nou (Barcelona, Spain)
• How to watch: Paramount+

Napoli vs. Arsenal pick: Arsenal Over 14.5 shots (-110)

Arsenal's midfield advantage is evident against nearly every club team in the world, and that's even with Bruno not 100% healthy. That's the type of situation that leads to repeated attacks. The addition of Tzolis on the left side has opened things up more for Saka on the right, as teams seem to be facing more of a "darned if you do, darned if you don't" situation when it comes to who to defend. The young Greek winger possesses many of the same qualities as the departed Trossard, but with additional speed and youth. 

Napoli's defense has been ripe for the picking in Serie A play, giving up over 20 shots per game, with Como reaching 21 and Inter putting up 29. We need Arsenal to get about a half of that. Sure, it's a difficult road tilt, but the midfield edge goes to the visitors and we don't need them to score or win, just to keep attacking. 

• Kickoff: Wednesday, Sept. 9 at 3 p.m. ET
• Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Napoli, Italy)
• How to watch: Paramount+