Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 4: EPL Expert Picks & Predictions

We're headed into Matchweek 4, and we have our Premier League best bets to round out your cards ahead of all the action. We have three undefeated teams: Arsenal, Manchester City, and... Hull (that's who you all expected, right?), and we have six winless teams, including Aston Villa and Tottenham, both of whom haven't scored in EPL play. 

But are those games where we'll find the best value, or will our Premier League predictions highlight other areas to attack?

🔮 Premier League best bets: Matchweek 4

Here are my Premier League predictions for Matchweek 4 as part of our soccer picks this week.

💰 Best Premier League bet: Brighton Over 1.5 goals at Coventry

BHA's attacking numbers are a bit inflated by an opening 4-0 romp of Villa, but a clash against a Coventry team that should play open while seeking a first win should give them a solid chance of hitting two. Brighton is putting up over 30 touches in opponents' boxes (similar to the number Coventry allows), and again, while that 2.46 xG/game and 15 big chances created are a bit bloated, there's still reason to believe in this squad. 

Brighton's 4-2-3-1 should overload Coventry's 3-4-3 and their 6.1 PPDA with 11.33 high turnovers/game should generate plenty of dangerous attacks. With the Premier League newcomers struggling to adapt to life in the top tier, with just nine shots per game, Brighton is set to be on the attack. And they'll take advantage.

🔥 More Premier League Matchweek 4 predictions

Liverpool Over 1.5 cards vs. Fulham 

Liverpool have been active this season in picking up fouls, racking up 13.7/game. Despite early season struggles in the end result, Fulham has seen plenty of the ball (61.6% possession) and is racking up 38.3 touches in the opponent's box: they're not just going to sit back. That means Liverpool could face more defensive challenges than usual. 

The Reds are already at 10 yellows on the season, a sign of one of the league's most aggressive presses, a relatively inexperienced backline (many of whom are new to the system) and a midfield that isn't particularly adept on the defensive side making rash challenges. They'll defend high to try to break up Fulham play, and should find their way to plenty of situations that could result in tactical yellows.

Everton Over 11.5 shots at Tottenham

The Spurs shelled out more than 300 million pounds in the offseason and still don't have a Premier League goal to show for it. A fanbase that hoped it would be cheering their club into Europe looks like it could be an early contender for again fighting to hold off relegation (there's lot of year left, however, and Tottenham should get on track a bit). 

Everton are averaging 15.67 shots per game - fewer than Spurs are allowing - so the matchup numbers are supporting this play. Everton's combination of box penetration and transitional play should allow them to have enough attacking possessions even if they don't dominate on the ball. 

Arsenal to win to nil at Sunderland

The Stadium of Light is a notoriously difficult place to visit, but Arsenal looks like a team in the early runnings that should be up to the task. Defensively, the Gunners are elite with just 0.31 xGA/game. That's a great combination against a Sunderland team struggling to convert, missing seven big chances (and only creating nine). 

Arsenal's 4-2-3-1 should compress Sunderland's central attacking space, and force them into lower-quality wide deliveries. I'm banking on this one finishing 1-0 or 2-0.